Calgary Construction XXVI

[BlaineN]

Okay guys, like Xelebes said, just get back to construction.

[Tobyoby]

House prices expected to decline in Calgary this year.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/c...hanges-2018-zoocasa-oversupply-1.4998458

Single detached homes expected to take the largest decrease.


2.27 per cent in the apartment sector.
2.49 per cent in the attached home sector.
2.33 per cent in the detached home sector.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

House prices expected to decline in Calgary this year.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/c...hanges-2018-zoocasa-oversupply-1.4998458

Single detached homes expected to take the largest decrease.

2.27 per cent in the apartment sector.
2.49 per cent in the attached home sector.
2.33 per cent in the detached home sector.

General declines are not unexpected IMHO, however, wanted to point out that 2.33 is < 2.49, so in the data you've pulled out, looks like duplexes go down the most and not single detached homes. Glad the decreases look to be decreasing overall, when comparing 2018 actuals to 2019 forecasts.

Looking at the graphics, the variation for 2018 really depended on which of the eight CREB regions of the city. For example, with duplexes, region #1 lost on average $41,378 per unit, whereas region #8 had an increase of $8,096 per unit. The change in price percentage spread between those two was 8%, which is huge relative to the overall drop in prices.

[BlaineN]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Suburgatory's insults are unacceptable, and I take exception to the moderator(s) deleting my post where I highlighted this, while at the same time leaving his most recent insult untouched.

Let's move on Suburbia. The original comment from suburgatory was deleted.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by suburbia

General declines are not unexpected IMHO, however, wanted to point out that 2.33 is < 2.49, so in the data you've pulled out, looks like duplexes go down the most and not single detached homes. Glad the decreases look to be glosing down overall, when comparing 2018 actuals to 2019 forecasts.

Looking at the graphics, the variation for 2018 really depended on which of the eight CREB regions of the city. For example, with duplexes, region #1 lost on average $41,378 per unit, whereas region #8 had an increase of $8,096 per unit. The change in price percentage spread between those two was 8%, which is huge relative to the overall drop in prices.

I was going to point out the same thing. Also the stats for single detached homes are skewed by drops in some areas with larger homes. That can happen as you have much wider ranges for larger more expensive homes. It's a completely different market and when prices go up they go up the most also.

[suburbia]

Construction update video for Rhapsody in the University District. The first half pans west to east facing north, and the second half looks out west.

• Video Link

[Bad Grizzly]

Duplexes have the most decline, and it's most likely those overpriced duplex from the inner-sprawl neighborhoods. Those ones were already overpriced to begin with.

Not saying there's anything wrong with people choosing to live there, on;y that those duplexes are priced way to high. We can all agree on that.

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

House prices expected to decline in Calgary this year.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/c...hanges-2018-zoocasa-oversupply-1.4998458

Single detached homes expected to take the largest decrease.


2.27 per cent in the apartment sector.
2.49 per cent in the attached home sector.
2.33 per cent in the detached home sector.

Lots of variables for price changes throughout the city, we would need more data (ie specific neighborhoods) to be able to get a more accurate look.

Originally Posted by suburbia

General declines are not unexpected IMHO, however, wanted to point out that 2.33 is < 2.49, so in the data you've pulled out, looks like duplexes go down the most and not single detached homes. Glad the decreases look to be decreasing overall, when comparing 2018 actuals to 2019 forecasts.

Looking at the graphics, the variation for 2018 really depended on which of the eight CREB regions of the city. For example, with duplexes, region #1 lost on average $41,378 per unit, whereas region #8 had an increase of $8,096 per unit. The change in price percentage spread between those two was 8%, which is huge relative to the overall drop in prices.

[topdog]

True, they are human and sad as it is, the reality is that those people have a number of shelters to choose from and could have stayed in them during the cold but chose on their on freewill to stay in an abandoned house without heat. That's one of the biggest issues with the Beltline, or core in general. All those homless/drug addict facilities around attract those people, but they aren't able to keep those people.

Originally Posted by suburbia

The above is just one example, but it is pretty sad that the burning down of a house in the Beltline has, instead of empathy, resulting in such attacks. Personally, irrespective of the fact it seemed to be an abandoned house, I'm quite sad by yet another misplaced cigarette or arson attack in the city, which has destroyed something that I'm sure was valuable to someone. For one thing, reading news accounts, it appears that at least 25 squatters will not have a place to take shelter from the weather. They may have inadvertently caused the fire, in an attempt to keep warm. These are people that were not listed in the census, but we know they exist and they are human.

Discussion about the use of vinyl seems completely random, and while I've not had a home with vinyl on it for almost 20 years now, it doesn't mean it is okay to jump on people for being in a scenario where that is on their house. It is the same with highly dense accommodations, where multiples can be damaged in a single incident (like when 46 were left homeless after that rooming house fire in the Beltline). Number one is empathy.

Message by squatters left inside the Enoch home that just burned down:

REF: https://www.avenuecalgary.com/city-life/inside-the-enoch-sales-house/

[topdog]

You need to dig more into the numbers. Apartment housing isn't dropping as much this year because it has already dropped more than the others the past 4 years in a row.

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

House prices expected to decline in Calgary this year.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/c...hanges-2018-zoocasa-oversupply-1.4998458

Single detached homes expected to take the largest decrease.


2.27 per cent in the apartment sector.
2.49 per cent in the attached home sector.
2.33 per cent in the detached home sector.

[Bad Grizzly]

Originally Posted by topdog

You need to dig more into the numbers. Apartment housing isn't dropping as much this year because it has already dropped more than the others the past 4 years in a row.

Good point. If you look at the past 4 years, I bet apartment style condos have dropped a lot in value relative to SFHs. SFHs are actually up overall in the course of the 4 years.

[Tobyoby]

I stand corrected. Duplexes are the group with the highest decrease. Followed closely by single family homes.

Originally Posted by suburbia

General declines are not unexpected IMHO, however, wanted to point out that 2.33 is < 2.49, so in the data you've pulled out, looks like duplexes go down the most and not single detached homes. Glad the decreases look to be decreasing overall, when comparing 2018 actuals to 2019 forecasts.

Looking at the graphics, the variation for 2018 really depended on which of the eight CREB regions of the city. For example, with duplexes, region #1 lost on average $41,378 per unit, whereas region #8 had an increase of $8,096 per unit. The change in price percentage spread between those two was 8%, which is huge relative to the overall drop in prices.

[Tobyoby]

Interesting that Aspen Woods is in the area (area 4) with one largest decreases in detached homes.

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

I was going to point out the same thing. Also the stats for single detached homes are skewed by drops in some areas with larger homes. That can happen as you have much wider ranges for larger more expensive homes. It's a completely different market and when prices go up they go up the most also.

Originally Posted by Bad Grizzly

Duplexes have the most decline, and it's most likely those overpriced duplex from the inner-sprawl neighborhoods. Those ones were already overpriced to begin with.

Not saying there's anything wrong with people choosing to live there, on;y that those duplexes are priced way to high. We can all agree on that.




Lots of variables for price changes throughout the city, we would need more data (ie specific neighborhoods) to be able to get a more accurate look.

[Tobyoby]

Actually the average price of a detached home has gone down from what it was in 2015. I guess detached homes aren’t bulletproof after all.

Originally Posted by Bad Grizzly

Good point. If you look at the past 4 years, I bet apartment style condos have dropped a lot in value relative to SFHs. SFHs are actually up overall in the course of the 4 years.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

Actually the average price of a detached home has gone down from what it was in 2015. I guess detached homes aren’t bulletproof after all.

Longer term trend data is always interesting. Could you post detached, duplex and apartment comparisons between 2014 and 2018? I'm assuming you have them on hand given your note above.

[Suburgatory]

[Bad Grizzly]

Area #4 covers a quarter of the city. Aspen Woods might be part if it, but so are a thousand other neighbourhoods.

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

Interesting that Aspen Woods is in the area (area 4) with one largest decreases in detached homes.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Suburgatory

Toby - The moderators have just called out the shoe-horning of Beltline vs. Aspen Woods. Now I'm not saying we can't bring things up if data showed something, but the data has ZERO community level information. Your post above is the first bringing up "Aspen Woods" - Bad Grizzly was only responding to your thinly veiled attack. Please stop it.

Suburgatory - I know you're frustrated, but posting a random statue is no way to respond and move things in a positive direction.

Bad Griz - Don't let people troll you.

[Tobyoby]

All I said was that Aspen Woods was in area 4 which was one of the areas showing a large decrease in prices for detatched homes. Which I found interesting. Also, I never even mentioned the Beltline.

And in regards to my comment about single family homes dropping from 2015 ro 219, it's true.

Average Price Jan 2019 $521,000
Average Price Jan 2015 $526,000

Like I said, not bullet proof.

Originally Posted by suburbia

Toby - The moderators have just called out the shoe-horning of Beltline vs. Aspen Woods. Now I'm not saying we can't bring things up if data showed something, but the data has ZERO community level information. Your post above is the first bringing up "Aspen Woods" - Bad Grizzly was only responding to your thinly veiled attack. Please stop it.

Suburgatory - I know you're frustrated, but posting a random statue is no way to respond and move things in a positive direction.

Bad Griz - Don't let people troll you.

[Tobyoby]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Bad Griz - Don't let people troll you.

Okay then.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

All I said was that Aspen Woods was in area 4 which was one of the areas showing a large decrease in prices for detatched homes. Which I found interesting. Also, I never even mentioned the Beltline.

And in regards to my comment about single family homes dropping from 2015 ro 219, it's true.

Average Price Jan 2019 $521,000
Average Price Jan 2015 $526,000

Like I said, not bullet proof.

I just realized the numbers are not the "areas" rather how a particular area ranked. So 4 out of 8 is not showing a large decrease relative to the others. Further, as was clearly pointed out to you, that area is large and thus there is no way to pinpoint specifics for a particular neighbourhood.

Regarding your average prices, we do not know the average prices for 2019, so if you are going to be comparing real numbers, you need to look at 2014 to 2018.