Calgary International Airport II

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

They are already referring to YYC as a hub less and less with each investor publication.

They use the term "Air Canada's major hubs", which is all hubs except YYC. It still is a hub, just very small.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Absolutely AC won’t abandon AC’s traditional routes but I do see a scaling back over the short to medium term... their recent adjustments certainly indicate they are far from expansion mode at YYC.

They are competing against WS using mainline on some prime sun and trans-border routes - PHX, PSP, OGG. But they have added so many flights internationally to YVR, YUL and YYZ and only scaled back in YYC (dropping NRT in winter, for example).

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

They use the term "Air Canada's major hubs", which is all hubs except YYC. It still is a hub, just very small.

Yes, it still is a hub for sure.
My point is I think we will see AC pullback.
When reading their press packs recently they are not even mentioning YYC as a hub unless the target audience is YYC specific.
Again, their recent moves have put all their increases at YVR, YYZ and YUL.
The WS winter sched rollout at YYC is very bold and aggressive.
Western Canada has a finite market size. Even with the likes of Flair entering.
Sure they will stimulate some demand but realistically still relatively small markets available for expansion.
Flair is establishing YEG as their (*cough*) “hub.” They will have 5 flights a day there versus 3 at YYC. Don’t know what they’re up to with their transborder and sun flights this upcoming winter but based on their fleet size the practicality is they won’t be a huge player.
WS continues to scale back its mainline flying at YEG as well transferring even more flights to Encore and Swoop. I think the WS expansion is also a small warning to Flair as well. Basically keep out of YYC and fending off any real expansion at YEG. Time will tell of course.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Acey

Yeah WS has stated multiple times their intentions for Asia, so it's hard to support a plan that a) steps on KLM and b) doesn't include Asia.

KL is generally a 333, not 332.

Fair, I just left Asia out of the original 10 frames since it requires 1.5 frames to support a daily and yields are just brutal compared to Europe right now.

I had AMS so high since at this point I essentially consider WS part of SkyTeam and could see a JV with Delta/AFKLM at some point in the near future.

If you want to swap a YVR-AMS to YVR-PVG and YYC-AMS to YYC-NRT that could make sense too.

My general point was 5 frames in YYZ, 2 in YVR, 2 in YYC and 1 rotating through the YEGs and YWGs of the world.

[YYCFlier]

Speaking of YYC-NRT, that route was transferred to YUL. Anyone know if AC will bring it back for W2020 (on a 788 maybe)?

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

Speaking of YYC-NRT, that route was transferred to YUL. Anyone know if AC will bring it back for W2020 (on a 788 maybe)?

Will probably just remain summer seasonal.

[CloudInspector]

I also think this was a defensive move for WS at their biggest hub.

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Fair, I just left Asia out of the original 10 frames since it requires 1.5 frames to support a daily and yields are just brutal compared to Europe right now.

I had AMS so high since at this point I essentially consider WS part of SkyTeam and could see a JV with Delta/AFKLM at some point in the near future.

If you want to swap a YVR-AMS to YVR-PVG and YYC-AMS to YYC-NRT that could make sense too.

My general point was 5 frames in YYZ, 2 in YVR, 2 in YYC and 1 rotating through the YEGs and YWGs of the world.

I think WestJet will fly the 787s where they can make the most money. I would imagine that means YYC to sun destinations, YVR to Asia/Australasia and YYZ to pretty much anywhere. Just my two cents.

[TheGreatestX]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

WS continues to scale back its mainline flying at YEG as well transferring even more flights to Encore and Swoop.

Actually WS hasn't transferred any routes to Encore from YEG for a while.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by TheGreatestX

Actually WS hasn't transferred any routes to Encore from YEG for a while.

I didn’t mean routes I meant capacity.

YEG has a net gain of only ~ 10 flights per week (depending on what period is compared) this upcoming winter.

There will be more Encore flying (all additions to YLW which is the only route with any significant gain in frequencies) and the transfer of flights from mainline to Swoop. The other affected routes are either losing mainline frequencies (like YOW) or transferring to Swoop. There are maybe 4-5 routes seeing one additional weekly mainline flight... My point is overall mainline continues to be scaled back at YEG in favour of increased Encore and Swoop flights.

[MalcolmTucker]

So, SWOOP 767s anyone?

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by CloudInspector

I would imagine that means YYC to sun destinations, YVR to Asia/Australasia and YYZ to pretty much anywhere. Just my two cents.

Agree with Acey - sun destinations are not premium routes - it's where they are competing with Rouge, Transat, Sunwing, etc.

WS traditionally (with exceptions) splits routes between YVR/YYC and then YYZ. Often YYC and YVR both get a new route sharing the aircraft. However, there are exceptions to this - e.g. LGW in winter is YYC only in the west, some trans-border routes are YYC only (but some YVR trans-border routes are also YVR only, e.g. HNL and OGG in summer or SNA). I think it largely depends how the routes do (SNA dropped in YYC due to loads), range of aircraft (737 NGs didn't seem to hit Hawaii well from YYC vs the MAX) and competition (less of it in YYC for many routes).

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by CloudInspector

I think WestJet will fly the 787s where they can make the most money.

Well that's a bold prediction!

Originally Posted by CloudInspector

I would imagine that means YYC to sun destinations, YVR to Asia/Australasia and YYZ to pretty much anywhere. Just my two cents.

YYC-sun and YVR-Asia have big demand but are not big money makers. YYC-Sun is primarily cost sensitive leisure and YVR-Asia is hyper competitive and facing yield pressures as Chinese carriers dump fares on TPac.

YVR-Australia sees good fares and strong demand but it requires 2 frames to do a daily and would face a lot of competition from AC, Qantas and even Air NZ.

I still think WS's best bet is Europe as fares from Western Canada to Europe are high all summer. I could also see WS taking a shot at something like YVR-Lima and code sharing it with all the Asian SkyTeam carriers.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I don't think too many Vancouverites think 789 service is going to be YVR/YYZ, I'd say the prevailing thought it is will be YYZ centric with some YYC and YVR service.

With the original 10 I could see:

YYZ-LGW daily - 1 frame
YYZ-AMS daily - 1 frame
YYZ-CDG daily - 1 frame
YYZ-Misc Europe 2 frames

YYC-LGW daily - 1 frame
YYC-AMS daily - 1 frame

YVR-LGW daily - 1 frame
YVR-AMS daily - 1 frame

Misc Canada-LGW - 1 frame

I will give the Dreamliner route prognostication a try.

YYZ-LGW
YYZ-AMS (KL cuts one of their daily flights. WS and AF/KL enter into codeshare)

YYC-LGW
YYC-AMS (KL cuts their flight, but keeps YEG-AMS and WS cuts YEG-LGW).
YYC-NRT (WS needs to show they are real on the TransPac, low risk as AC will retreat to focus on YVR/YYZ/YUL)
YYC-Daxing/PEK (If WS gets the slots, they will take an initial loss as this route will become super important and profitable one day). Service might originate in YYZ.

YVR-LGW
YVR-CDG (AF cuts their services and codeshares with WS)
YVR-Daxing/PEK (If WS gets the slots, they will take an initial loss as this route will become super important and profitable one day)

The YEG/YWG to LGW service is not premium cabin route, so no reason to put these routes onto Dreamliner. If WS sees a continual roll for the 763 past summer 2019, these services might stick around.

Based on the last 2 quarterly investor conference calls, the analyst community does not share WS bullish viewpoint on making the transition to a network longhaul international airline profitable from day 1. To mitigate WS operational risk, they will have to JV partner with an airline that is all ready serving Canada but would be willing to hand over a route or two. AF/KL is the only airline that fits this mission.

Another possibility is that DL gives WS some LHR slots and WS moves 3 daily services to LHR. I would expect that WS would partner with Virgin Airlines if this became a thing.

[McMurph]

While flying to YWG a couple of weeks ago -- on a Q400 -- I also got the feeling that AC might be giving up on Calgary. I hope for our sake WS doesn't botch their expansion. I worry that we're on our way to becoming a US style almost single-carrier hub.

[hollywoodcory]

What about YYC-CDG? They already operate this route with one stop in YHZ. Unless they intend to just simply keep WS80/81 as it exists now.

As for Asia, is a possible JV with KE in the cards? It could blend well with DL/WS' existing agreement and open the door to more connecting opportunities and make way for YYC-ICN in the future?

[The Chemist]

Originally Posted by Cage

I will give the Dreamliner route prognostication a try.

YYZ-LGW
YYZ-AMS (KL cuts one of their daily flights. WS and AF/KL enter into codeshare)

YYC-LGW
YYC-AMS (KL cuts their flight, but keeps YEG-AMS and WS cuts YEG-LGW).
YYC-NRT (WS needs to show they are real on the TransPac, low risk as AC will retreat to focus on YVR/YYZ/YUL)
YYC-Daxing/PEK (If WS gets the slots, they will take an initial loss as this route will become super important and profitable one day). Service might originate in YYZ.

YVR-LGW
YVR-CDG (AF cuts their services and codeshares with WS)
YVR-Daxing/PEK (If WS gets the slots, they will take an initial loss as this route will become super important and profitable one day)

The YEG/YWG to LGW service is not premium cabin route, so no reason to put these routes onto Dreamliner. If WS sees a continual roll for the 763 past summer 2019, these services might stick around.

Based on the last 2 quarterly investor conference calls, the analyst community does not share WS bullish viewpoint on making the transition to a network longhaul international airline profitable from day 1. To mitigate WS operational risk, they will have to JV partner with an airline that is all ready serving Canada but would be willing to hand over a route or two. AF/KL is the only airline that fits this mission.

Another possibility is that DL gives WS some LHR slots and WS moves 3 daily services to LHR. I would expect that WS would partner with Virgin Airlines if this became a thing.

Why wouldn't they do PVG instead of PEK? In terms of overall traffic, Shanghai beats Beijing (SHA and PVG combined have more traffic than PEK) and PVG probably has more slot availability. There'd also be no competition on the route, as YYC-PEK already has Hainan.

[YYCFlier]

Ugh, I hope you are wrong on your predictions. I want new service to YYC, I don't want WS to cannibalize existing routes and take them over from other carriers (NRT, AMS and PEK). That's the last thing we need. WS will always dominate at YYC but I don't want a fortress hub and I'd rather they send all 10 789s to YYZ then take over existing routes.

[LO 044]

Originally Posted by Cage

YYC-AMS (KL cuts their flight, but keeps YEG-AMS and WS cuts YEG-LGW).

The YEG/YWG to LGW service is not premium cabin route, so no reason to put these routes onto Dreamliner. If WS sees a continual roll for the 763 past summer 2019, these services might stick around.

I guess i don't know how well the relationship between WS and KL is currently but if YEG isn't a premier destination for a variety of reasons then why do you think KL would let WS keep the "better" route into YYC?

How about YEG-AMS on the WS 763? Of course many people seem to say that WS 763's are not worth keeping unless absolutely necessary. Are these 763's really any worse than Rouge 763's?

And if KL and WS enter a joint venture then it really doesn't matter who flies the plane. Am i correct? In that scenario wouldn't you let KL keep the flights to AMS while WS looks elsewhere with the 789's?

[Tobuz]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

MEX got axed? I’m still seeing booking being available in February?

Edit: never mind, I see it now. Must not have rolled over in its booking system quite yet.

I’m confused ... as of today (Aug 15) I still see YYC-MEX non-stop being sold right through late spring of 2019.

WestJet is still showing a daily 737-700 round trip.

Where do you see this route being axed?

(I’m crossing my fingers that it continues. Fantastic to have this service.)

[CloudInspector]

Originally Posted by Tobuz

I’m confused ... as of today (Aug 15) I still see YYC-MEX non-stop being sold right through late spring of 2019.

WestJet is still showing a daily 737-700 round trip.

Where do you see this route being axed?

(I’m crossing my fingers that it continues. Fantastic to have this service.)

I’m also able to book both YVR/YYC to MEX on the WestJet website, does anybody have a source for the cancellation?