YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Looks like ORD is not going down without a fight.

Norwegian launched year round LGW-ORD a few days ago.
AA begins seasonal ORD-VCE in May
LO begins year round BUD-ORD in May.
ET is launching year round ADD-ORD in June.
NZ announced year round AKL-ORD starting November 30 (a bit late to help 2018 numbers, but still worth mentioning)

With the last two routes in that list, ORD will go from serving 4 continents to all 6 inhabited continents.

What no Chicago - Antarctica flight??

[POCO]

Originally Posted by Denscity

What no Chicago - Antarctica flight??

Who wants to fly to that frozen hellscape?

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by connect2source

Just booking a Europe trip in May and noticed LH 477 YVR-MUC will be operated by an A350-900!

I was also looking at this connection few weeks ago when booking my trip to Finland. It was exactly the same price as BA, but I decided to go with the A380 instead due to the much better connection times through LHR. Lufthansa connections on the way back to Vancouver require leaving very early from most European cities, making them a lot less desirable than BA.

It would have been cool to try both on the same go, but them being on different alliances didn't really make it possible. Too bad that Finnair flies their A350's only to Asia.

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Bang Bang!! You got me!! Oh well .... I tried. Now I give up. The campaign is lost. So be it. Bury me on Boot Hill.

Hey, at least until next month!

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by nname

Just simply show how bad North American airports are in general. Unless something dramatic happens, I don't see YVR lose the top title next year or the year after that. After all, they are still 15 ranks higher than the next-highest North America airport...

I think there is actually a genuine risk of starting to fall places on this list just due to the fact that passenger numbers are growing so rapidly and their expansions a moving forward very slowly. YVR has already become noticeably more crowded in the last 5 years, making it less pleasant to fly from.

[Johnny Aussie]

As for YVR vs ORD for int’l traffic

YVR got off to a smoking start in January.

YVR’s 2018 growth has plenty of capacity increases coming up this summer as well plus new winter 2018/2019 upgrades to come. YVR’s 2018 numbers will also be boosted by all the 2017 additions that haven’t had a full year realised either.

Regardless the fact that YVR is so close to the US’s third largest metro area and with all their international flights really shows how impressive YVR’s numbers are.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

As for YVR vs ORD for int’l traffic

YVR got off to a smoking start in January.

YVR’s 2018 growth has plenty of capacity increases coming up this summer as well plus new winter 2018/2019 upgrades to come. YVR’s 2018 numbers will also be boosted by all the 2017 additions that haven’t had a full year realised either.

Regardless the fact that YVR is so close to the US’s third largest metro area and with all their international flights really shows how impressive YVR’s numbers are.

Not only what you say is true about YVR being, in relative terms, close to Chicago, but the fact that Vancouver is about one fifth the size of the Chicago Metro population.

[moosejaw]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Not only what you say is true about YVR being, in relative terms, close to Chicago, but the fact that Vancouver is about one fifth the size of the Chicago Metro population.

Althought populations do have some revelance to the statistics, its more of YVRs geodistance to Asia in which it gains an advantage

[Denscity]

^^^ Yes and the eastern North American cities are relatively close to so many European cities.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by POCO

Who wants to fly to that frozen hellscape?

Hey man Chicago's a nice place!

Originally Posted by Denscity

^^^ Yes and the eastern North American cities are relatively close to so many European cities.

And much closer to South America and the middle east. Geographically YVR is much more isolated and disadvantaged than somewhere like Chicago.

Still I expect YVR to pass ORD in the next year or two, especially given the growth is not just intl but transborder and there's tons of that coming for YVR too.

[Vagabond]

This could be equally applicable to CXH as YVR, but Harbour Air has applied to fly international.

[twoNeurons]

I'm happy to see ORD get more connections. Flying on UA using Aeroplan points means no fuel surcharges and ORD and EWR are two major connection points you have to use to find flights on UA.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Still I expect YVR to pass ORD in the next year or two, especially given the growth is not just intl but transborder and there's tons of that coming for YVR too.

YVR will most likely pass ORD this year. But what could end up happening is ORD regaining top spot, if AC slows down expansion in the coming years. More foreign airlines are interested in adding service to ORD, including QF.

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

I'm happy to see ORD get more connections. Flying on UA using Aeroplan points means no fuel surcharges and ORD and EWR are two major connection points you have to use to find flights on UA.

Indeed. Both ORD and EWR benefit from huge O&D and mega-hub status. No surprise NZ launched ORD. Wouldn't surprise me to see them in EWR next. And as mentioned, QF is interested in ORD as well.

[Hot Rod]

Actually, when YVR passes ORD this year it will be short lived as ORD has been embarking on a massive rebuild which so far has included:

redesign of the runways into 5 parallels E-W and retaining 2 crosswinds.

Now, the city and hub airlines have agreed to a terminal reconfiguration which will de-hub the International Terminal 5 and redesign existing all terminals to allow for full alliance config: Star Alliance/United hub in One, OneWorld/American in Two, and SkyTeam/Delta and others in the expanded T5. All new config terminals will have Customs and Immigration; allowing ORD to be the ONLY international airport in North America with separate hub terminals based on alliance.

The above will allow for much better connections from the US majors to the foreign flags, ala Beijing Capital Airport and the effect should be similar - a HUGE rise in passenger numbers at ORD. This is all 5-10 years away but even with the runway design ORD can increase capacity enough to likely re-take the lead from YVR after a year or two.

Anyway, I think the message is it's very impressive of YVRs pax numbers particularly when compared to a world city such as Chicago and the very impressive business connections that city has. To even be mentioned let alone take the lead (even if for a year or two) is very impressive.

[Johnny Aussie]

Let's not beat this topic to death or over analyse what may or may happen.

You are correct HotRod the message is, and for whatever the reasons, YVR's international traffic to be so huge especially compared to other large North American cities is downright impressive... at this point YVR and ORD have less than 100,000 international pax separating their totals. Would never have thought that would happen even 5 years ago. And to be served by no fewer than 24 overseas long-haul carriers is crazy insane for YVR.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I really hope we can hold on to a few or DUB and NGO might be in trouble.

Rouge 767s will completely exit YVR. Expect to see changes to DUB, NGO and KIX next year. Either mainline or the chopper.

Quoting longhauler from airliners.

http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1389793

I think the 767 at Rouge will remain for quite a while. It is a very capable airframe and very versatile. The company is acknowledging reliability issues encountered at Rouge. But those issues were the result of tight scheduling and nothing to do with the aircraft itself. The Rouge 767 operation is moving to entirely in YYZ and YUL and scheduling will be looser ... to mitigate those issues.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

It’s very possible AC may still base a rouge 763 or two at YVR in summer 2019.

Doesn't seem to be the case.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Otherwise DUB would most likely have to move to mainline. As for NGO? Perhaps that goes mainline as well... maybe one of the last remaining mainline 763 routes, maybe one of the new 330 routes or it gets cut altogether!?

I wouldn't be surprised to see AC shuttle more A330's between YUL/YYZ and YVR, and use them for NGO, KIX and DUB. That would explain the 4 additional A333s coming online next year. YVR-KIX/NGO/DUB are all well withing range of the A333s.

We'll find out soon enough what their plan is for summer 2019, as they start loading the schedules in a few months.

Originally Posted by CareerShow

I could see NGO being dropped, as it seems the route hasn't been doing all that well. KIX is supposedly mainline for the S19 season, and I could see Dublin being mainlined in S19 as well, rotating thru YUL or YYZ with a a333, or a 788 perhaps. All in all, the loss of a route compared to the number of mainlined routes, both shorthaul and longhaul is worth it i believe.

I think you're on to something....

[trofirhen]

New Zealand is a beautiful country with an amazingly mild climate, dream scenery - and towns!! - and a fine quality of life and attracts both tourists, and people wanting to settle there.

There seems to be market at YVR. Although most routngs LHR to AKL, are usually through DXB, HK, SIN, beween Emirates, Air NZ itself, Singapore Airlines, China Southern, and more.
However, in fact, London to Auckland is closer via Vancouver that the "Indian Ocean route. "
Here I've used DXB as the transfer point. Seemed pretty standard.

LHR - YVR - AKL 18937 km

LHR - DXB - AKL 19705 km

Amsterdam is slighter closer via YVR also, but..... what just a few degrees of longitude makes!! From Frankfurt, it's:
via DXB - 19050 km, Through - YVR: 19422 km. Whew!!
_________________
OK, thank you. My point is/ does there exist a such a market from NZ to London and Western Europe due to the shorter distance, or perhaps not.

Air New Zealand is getting ambitious. It's going into major US makets, and alreadyhas LAX as a focus city.
However, given that Boeing 777LR and 789s can do 15,000 km up, and given that if there's a market coming up at ORD (Dallas dropped), YYZ could be on the radar. There must be enough O&D to make the route as profitable as seems (6,times a week). YVR, it seems, cannot rest on its laurels as a a NZ top dog jumping-off point any more.

and as a footnote:
*!! And LHR - HON is only 11847 km nonstop. Over the pole. Doable. Via YVR it's 18937 km. So that must surely rule out YVR as a transfer from Europe to Hawaii, as I believe somone had suggested not too long back. Hey they do that if there's enough intrest!!! LHR over the pole, I mean!! Is there such a service already?
And from many other points in Western Europe.
(Thank you for your time and consideration

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

YVR will most likely pass ORD this year. But what could end up happening is ORD regaining top spot, if AC slows down expansion in the coming years. More foreign airlines are interested in adding service to ORD, including QF.



Indeed. Both ORD and EWR benefit from huge O&D and mega-hub status. No surprise NZ launched ORD. Wouldn't surprise me to see them in EWR next. And as mentioned, QF is interested in ORD as well.

What about YYZ? 7m big market. Possible? Would compete with Vancouver.

[Johnny Aussie]

Well we waited forever for YYZ to publish their 2017 figures and then just a few days later they published Jan 2018.

Here's a snapshot of how YVR compared to the other big 4 for Jan 2018 compared to Jan 2017:

YYZ TTL up 4.3% - Dom up 2.7% - Int up 5.0% (TB 3.0% Other Int 6.5%)
YVR TTL up 8.2% - Dom up 7.0% - Int up 9.3% (TB 11.0% Other Int 7.9%)
YUL TTL up 5.5% - Dom up 4.2% - Int up 6.3% (TB 4.6% Other Int 7.2%)
YYC TTL up 5.4% - Dom up 3.7% - Int up 8.8% (TB 7.2% Other Int 11.2%)

In aggregate TTL pax numbers YYZ was up 150,671 followed closely by YVR at 146,743.

YVR's growth rates were the highest for all categories except Other International which was highest at YYC, YVR was second.

Although YYC had the highest % increase in Other International, its aggregate increase was only 18,742 compared to YVR's 40,258 increase.

Feb figures should be out soon and with Chinese New Year occurring in Feb compared to last year YVR's Asia Pacific numbers should be very strong.

[casper]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

New Zealand is a beautiful country with an amazingly mild climate, dream scenery - and towns!! - and a fine quality of life and attracts both tourists, and people wanting to settle there.

There seems to be market at YVR. Although most routngs LHR to AKL, are usually through DXB, HK, SIN, beween Emirates, Air NZ itself, Singapore Airlines, China Southern, and more.
However, in fact, London to Auckland is closer via Vancouver that the "Indian Ocean route. "
Here I've used DXB as the transfer point. Seemed pretty standard.

LHR - YVR - AKL 18937 km

LHR - DXB - AKL 19705 km

Amsterdam is slighter closer via YVR also, but..... what just a few degrees of longitude makes!! From Frankfurt, it's:
via DXB - 19050 km, Through - YVR: 19422 km. Whew!!
_________________
OK, thank you. My point is/ does there exist a such a market from NZ to London and Western Europe due to the shorter distance, or perhaps not.

Air New Zealand is getting ambitious. It's going into major US makets, and alreadyhas LAX as a focus city.
However, given that Boeing 777LR and 789s can do 15,000 km up, and given that if there's a market coming up at ORD (Dallas dropped), YYZ could be on the radar. There must be enough O&D to make the route as profitable as seems (6,times a week). YVR, it seems, cannot rest on its laurels as a a NZ top dog jumping-off point any more.

and as a footnote:
*!! And LHR - HON is only 11847 km nonstop. Over the pole. Doable. Via YVR it's 18937 km. So that must surely rule out YVR as a transfer from Europe to Hawaii, as I believe somone had suggested not too long back. Hey they do that if there's enough intrest!!! LHR over the pole, I mean!! Is there such a service already?
And from many other points in Western Europe.
(Thank you for your time and consideration

Air New Zealand does fly to LHR with a stop at LAX. I believe they are allowed to sell the LAX-LHR segment. I don't know how many local LAX passengers they pickup. Given LAX is not a hub for any other Star Alliance member (aka United), it is probably a non-issue. If they did the same thing via YVR they would probably be rocking the boat a bit to much with their local partner (aka Air Canada).

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by casper

Air New Zealand does fly to LHR with a stop at LAX. I believe they are allowed to sell the LAX-LHR segment. I don't know how many local LAX passengers they pickup. Given LAX is not a hub for any other Star Alliance member (aka United), it is probably a non-issue. If they did the same thing via YVR they would probably be rocking the boat a bit to much with their local partner (aka Air Canada).

United sees LAX as a hub actually and they have quite the significant route system there.

However, NZ at YVR is mainly catering to passenger flows between NZ/Australia and Canada. Every day plenty of pax from MEL, BNE and SYD are transferring on the NZ flights to YVR among other places like PER, ADL, OOL etc... AC then carries pax onwards from YVR to YYJ, YLW, YEG and YYC etc. Of course with an increasing number of nonstop Australia - YVR flights coming online, NZ is at risk of significant bleed to these direct flights. However, NZ has been constantly increasing frequencies on AKL-YVR, so I'll assume that route is doing OK at least... plenty of pie to go around.

Last time I looked BA flies LHR-HNL 5 x a day? That's a huge market. It's all easily found on the internet.