YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Cargo Stats for 2015

Tonnes of cargo and % change from 2014:

1 YYZ 367,983 up 3.1%
2 YVR 238,096 up 9.6%
3 YHM 110,797 up 24.5%
4 YYC 83,154 down 2.8%
5 YUL 79,800 up 4.0%
6 YMX 70,185 up 9.4%
7 YWG 65,878 up 7.6%
8 YQM 28,986 up 36.3%
9 YEG 27,918 up 1.1%
10 YHZ 26,703 down 6.9%

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/51-203-x/2015000/t005-eng.htm

YVR holding its own at #2 with decent growth.
YHM and YQM had insane growth in 2015.

I'm guessing much of the YVR growth is in the belly of the planes, reflecting the growth in new services not new dedicated freighters?

YQM and in particular YHM are very impressive. Surprised at YEGs weak numbers. What happened to their inland port strategy or whatever it was they were calling it?

[s211]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

YQM and in particular YHM are very impressive. Surprised at YEGs weak numbers. What happened to their inland port strategy or whatever it was they were calling it?

You forgot to put air quotes around "strategy". Frankly, the Port Alberta concept has been a big belly flop.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I'm guessing much of the YVR growth is in the belly of the planes, reflecting the growth in new services not new dedicated freighters?

YQM and in particular YHM are very impressive. Surprised at YEGs weak numbers. What happened to their inland port strategy or whatever it was they were calling it?

Don't count YEG out yet. Despite the oil downturn, they are able to hang on to KLM and Icelandair (so far..).

[LeftCoaster]

Can't tell if your kidding or not.

I was referring to their cargo plan, which I don't know much about, but figured it would at least provide growth higher than 1.1%...

Their PAX on the other hand, well they would kill for 1.1% growth right now. Looking like a 5%+ decline this year.

[LeftCoaster]

X-post from the Canada section;

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

2015 numbers have been out a while for the major airports and I updated my 2014 Top North American Intl Airports list:



Pearson still has a solid hold on second on the continent with the only major movement being LAX vaulting over MIA for 3rd.

YVR and YUL in strong position to hold their position and even make some moves as O'Hare, Newark and Hartsfield look vulnerable.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

X-post from the Canada section;

Nice chart.

Key thing to point out is Vancouver is by far the smallest CMA on that list.

With current year growth still a long way from catching ORD or ATL. But the gap with YUL should widen.

Very impressive for YYZ to be #2.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Can't tell if your kidding or not.

I was referring to their cargo plan, which I don't know much about, but figured it would at least provide growth higher than 1.1%...

Their PAX on the other hand, well they would kill for 1.1% growth right now. Looking like a 5%+ decline this year.

YYC is also not slowing down with cargo development so there is still that competition to the south giving trouble.

Looking at forward schedules, YEG is still losing even more flights into the winter.

YEG doesn't disclose their cargo stats. All their press releases with regards to cargo just point out to % growth so can't really tell where they are at. Other airports like YVR and YYC post stats much larger than Stats Canada figures. A quick check indicates the stats Canada figures don't count smaller operators. So those must be a significant portion of both YVR and YYC total tonnage.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Can't tell if your kidding or not.

I was referring to their cargo plan, which I don't know much about, but figured it would at least provide growth higher than 1.1%...

Their PAX on the other hand, well they would kill for 1.1% growth right now. Looking like a 5%+ decline this year.

not kidding.

Remember that YVR had tremendous flux, at least with passenger traffic, with the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s and the bankruptcy of Canadian. IIRC, YVR is just now surpassing to numbers prior to the 2008 crisis. Holding onto what you have IMO is really important. IIRC, KLM flies 4x weekly from YEG, which is similar (the same?) as YVR. Icelandair doesn't fly to YYC, a city YEG is disadvantaged with as they lack a star alliance hub. At least maintaining the network for now until oil recovers is a plus for YEG.

Long-term, YEG as a lot going for it as a cargo hub - it was identified with YVR as a potential aerotropolis. It has a lot of land, it's already the logistics centre for the petroleum industry and at a lower altitude that YYC. Air China already runs a dedicated cargo service to YEG.

[osirisboy]

^^i believe 2013 was the year Yvr surpassed its pre recession high

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

not kidding.

Remember that YVR had tremendous flux, at least with passenger traffic, with the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s and the bankruptcy of Canadian. IIRC, YVR is just now surpassing to numbers prior to the 2008 crisis. Holding onto what you have IMO is really important. IIRC, KLM flies 4x weekly from YEG, which is similar (the same?) as YVR. Icelandair doesn't fly to YYC, a city YEG is disadvantaged with as they lack a star alliance hub. At least maintaining the network for now until oil recovers is a plus for YEG.

Long-term, YEG as a lot going for it as a cargo hub - it was identified with YVR as a potential aerotropolis. It has a lot of land, it's already the logistics centre for the petroleum industry and at a lower altitude that YYC. Air China already runs a dedicated cargo service to YEG.

Yes there is potential but it's not necessarily being realised as other airports in the region are competing for the same traffic. YYC and YVR are making big inroads. The numbers released by Stats Canada, even though not necessarily 100% accurate for total tonnage, certainly tells the story. YYC, according to their 2015 press release on cargo stats, is churning through over 130,000 tonnes.

KLM is daily in YVR summer, 4 weekly in winter.
KLM is 4x weekly in YEG summer, 3 weekly in winter and they have been stagnant since their launch (ie no increases).
They have scaled back YVR one flight per week this winter but that is based on the launch of AF to CDG.

Absolutely Vancouver would be at risk during any Asian downturn just like Edmonton would be during an oil industry downturn.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Finally those crazy numbers I've been yearning for!

A little reverse engineering gives us the growth figures for the month:

Domestic: 991,269 (up 9.1%)
Transborder: 488,924 (up 7.2%)
Asia Pacific: 310,466 (up 13.4%)
Europe: 195,779 (up 19.1%)
Misc Intl: 33,967 (up 78.0%) <---- WTF?!?

Total Intl: 540,211 (up 18.2%)

Total PAX: 2,020,404 (up 10.9%)

These numbers are just nuts. Not much else to say about it.

OK YVR has released its official June 2016 stats and you were pretty darn close!

Overall up 175,909 up 9.7% to 1,997,873
Domestic up 76,527 up 8.4% to 985,238
Transborder up 32,144 up 7.0% to 488,198
Asia Pacific up 35,724 up 13.1 % to 309,422
Europe up 23,013 up 14.0% to 187,429
Misc Int'l up 8,501 up 44.5% to 27,586

Still amazing crazy growth!

Domestic / International split is now Domestic: 49.3% International: 50.7%

[LeftCoaster]

Not bad eh? Only off by a few hundred on Transborder too!

Originally Posted by mezzanine

not kidding.

Remember that YVR had tremendous flux, at least with passenger traffic, with the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s and the bankruptcy of Canadian. IIRC, YVR is just now surpassing to numbers prior to the 2008 crisis. Holding onto what you have IMO is really important. IIRC, KLM flies 4x weekly from YEG, which is similar (the same?) as YVR. Icelandair doesn't fly to YYC, a city YEG is disadvantaged with as they lack a star alliance hub. At least maintaining the network for now until oil recovers is a plus for YEG.

Long-term, YEG as a lot going for it as a cargo hub - it was identified with YVR as a potential aerotropolis. It has a lot of land, it's already the logistics centre for the petroleum industry and at a lower altitude that YYC. Air China already runs a dedicated cargo service to YEG.

I don't disagree that holding on to what they have now is a great result given the current conditions, but once again I don't understand what KLM and Icelandair have to do with their cargo hub plan?

What I was saying is that their big plans to be a cargo hub have fallen pretty flat. Not only did they have some of the lowest growth in the country in Cargo, they are starting from a tiny base number so their growth as a % should be much higher. The Air China freighter is great, but with YVR and YYC already seeing multiple dedicated cargo freighters they are just playing catch-up.

Just to put it into perspective, YVR with 9.6% growth added nearly the entire cargo operations of YEG in a single year.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I don't disagree that holding on to what they have now is a great result given the current conditions, but once again I don't understand what KLM and Icelandair have to do with their cargo hub plan?

What I was saying is that their big plans to be a cargo hub have fallen pretty flat. Not only did they have some of the lowest growth in the country in Cargo, they are starting from a tiny base number so their growth as a % should be much higher. The Air China freighter is great, but with YVR and YYC already seeing multiple dedicated cargo freighters they are just playing catch-up.

Just to put it into perspective, YVR with 9.6% growth added nearly the entire cargo operations of YEG in a single year.

I think the problem with YEG Airport Authority is they did a lot of talking about the Port Alberta project, did a lot of reports on the Port Alberta project, but when it comes to actually making it happen..... And as I said before, YEG doesn't publish their tonnage numbers, just their growth % d then they spin it to sound like they are this huge cargo hub.

Meanwhile, YYC was just "quietly" building up a decent base and just making it happen. 2015 tonnage at YYC per Transport Canada is more than 50,000 tonnes less than what YYC reported. And Stats Canada showing a decline, whilst YYC authority showing an increase so perhaps there were a lot of smaller operators making decent gains.

I any event, being the YVR thread, nice to see YVR numbers growing strongly. Although 2016 looks like this is taking a hit.

****************

EDELWEISS AND CONDOR SUMMER 2017 UPDATE

Both Condor and Edelweiss have released their 2017 summer schedules.

Edelweiss will remain three weekly but all three are scheduled to be on the A330-300. This summer it's 2 x 333 and 1 x 332. Not a big deal but a small bump in seats.

Condor will again be 5 weekly for the peak summer. Pretty much the same as this year.

[LeftCoaster]

Happy to hear Condor is returning with 5xPW, wouldn't want it to be too much more and start cutting in on LHs business.

Would love to see Edelweiss replaced by mainline Swiss though. I know it's probably not likely to happen, at least not in the near future, but a guy can hope right?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Happy to hear Condor is returning with 5xPW, wouldn't want it to be too much more and start cutting in on LHs business.

Would love to see Edelweiss replaced by mainline Swiss though. I know it's probably not likely to happen, at least not in the near future, but a guy can hope right?

Sounds like Germany could handle even a bit more capacity. I'm still waiting for the imminent announcement of what LH will do when they phase out their 744s on the YVR-FRA route. I think YVR-MUC is sorted for now. Perhaps more 346 flying. I still think AC is in the mix for FRA. Just have to be careful how much more capacity they throw at Europe as the second YVR-LHR has to be a decent result before they would add even more seats.

I don't think YVR-ZRH is strong enough for mainline Swiss. I think Edelweiss is the perfect fit for YVR.

[Hourglass]

^^
Would be nice to see MUC go year-round. Any chance of that happening?

[Jebby]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

^^
Would be nice to see MUC go year-round. Any chance of that happening?

I don't know if there's enough demand apart from December and Summer (all the way till the first week of October when Oktoberfest ends).

Maybe in a few years once LH shifts all their international traffic from Dusseldorf to Munich which would enable more connections to the rest of Europe out of Munich instead of connecting via Frankfurt?

[LeftCoaster]

Ya kinda strange MUC isn't year round given LHs increasing ops in Munich.

Does LH send a 744 during the winter? If so maybe when it retires the 747 fleet two A359s (one FRA one MUC) could replace it.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I don't think YVR-ZRH is strong enough for mainline Swiss. I think Edelweiss is the perfect fit for YVR.

I don't think it's strong enough either, just dreaming. Apparently Swiss tourism is up 38% through May of 16' so lots of demand, but it's probably predominantly VFR. Could probably support another frequency though if it is around 8,000 PAX before summer even really started.
https://www.biv.com/article/2016/8/vancouver-international-airport-extends-its-overse/

[SFUVancouver]

First off, those are awesome numbers for YVR! Thank you for the work that went into breaking them down and comparing them with our peers. I'm looking forward to YVR's unveiling of their updated master plan to address their rapidly-approaching capacity limits. Here's hoping for the eastern north-south taxiway to go ahead.

Speaking of leisure airline service from YVR to Germany, I just got home from a quick always-over-too-soon European holiday with my girlfriend and we actually took Condor from YVR to Frankfurt on an insanely good seat sale. Hold on to your hats: $199 all-in for a one-way fare!

All-in-all, Condor was fine. Bad leg room and the basic economy seats have no headrest, but I can endure a lot for <$200.

On the way back we flew on points on United from Amsterdam to Newark - with enough of a layover to have time to head into Manhattan for a quick look around - and we then took Air Canada home to YVR, which is a route that inexplicably uses a brand new 788. I don't know if I've ever taken a wide-body on a domestic/transborder flight. Amazing to think that a E190 was previously tasked with that route. I'll take a Dreamliner over an E-Jet any day of the week.

Photos!

Condor's B767-300ER




While waiting at the gate, I saw Xiamen Airline's new 788 service to Vancouver arrive and pull up at the adjacent gate.




In Amsterdam for my trip home I saw a rare bird: one of the first five A350-900s in service with Singapore Airlines.


Coming home, I took an Air Canada 788 from Newark to YVR.

[LeftCoaster]

It was a 319, but either way a huge upgrade ya. Can't believe given the amount of flying you do that you've never taken a domestic widebody flight, nearly half the frequencies (and over half the seats) to YYZ are widebody. I'm flying back to Toronto on a 789 tomorrow, always a pleasant flight.

That new condor/Thomson livery looks great, as does Xiamen, great catch. Would love to see that Singapore A359 in a different airport too...