LOS ANGELES | Central City Project Rundown 5.0

[Wilcal]

Originally Posted by black_crow

We shouldn't worry about "Oceanwide Plaza", I got the information, that everything is fine and that they are already looking for more people.. like Financial & Construction Manager, some driver and so on.

I don't want to give you guys any names, like I did in 2015 with Mr Eichler. We also know, that the project did change again (after that information), so you never know, but we should stay calm.

PS:

I didn't heare anything about a missing permit.

I noticed on the Circa internet site today that they are hiring laborers with various skills.

[Resident]

Originally Posted by Wilcal

I noticed on the Circa site today that they are hiring laborers with various skills.

Do you have a link for that website?? I bookmark those kind of websites and every once in a while take a lap around to see if anything changes.

[ConstructDTLA]

This has been stalled for over 7 months.

Can we get to the bottom of it? (Please don't speculate without facts).

9th & Hope (Stalled CIM Tower) by Hunter, on Flickr

[Resident]

^^^^ Labor shortage/Hollywood/permitting/lack of financing/El Nino

Just kidding. I have no idea.

[black_crow]

Originally Posted by Wilcal

I noticed on the Circa site today that they are hiring laborers with various skills.

I saw the same for the Oceanwide Plaza site today. (that confirms my information)

Just google for it..

PS:

@DTLAenizen... what happend to you? You were one of the best guys here. What are you trying to prove? Please... it's not worth it. Give it some time. You might be right, who knows. But all your posts are going in the same direction. You are smarter than that, you had such a great standing here.

[ConstructDTLA]

Originally Posted by black_crow

I saw the same for the Oceanwide Plaza site today. (that confirms my information)

Just google for it..

PS:

@DTLAenizen... what happend to you? You were one of the best guys here. What are you trying to prove? Please... it's not worth it. Give it some time. You might be right, who knows. But all your posts are going in the same direction. You are smarter than that, you had such a great standing here.

What upsets me is I try and warn everybody the cycle is coming to an end, and they try and act like I'm crazy. Its getting harder to find those people know though.

Regardless, 9th & Hope is a completely separate issue. It easily broke ground early enough (April 2014?) to keep going and be one of the first luxury towers to come online. They are not stalled from greater market conditions. It has to be something internal at CIM or within the city. CIM is losing extreme $$$ letting the site sit there. In my opinion its the most mysterious project in DTLA.

[ThomJames]

Originally Posted by DTLAdenizen

What upsets me is I try and warn everybody the cycle is coming to an end, and they try and act like I'm crazy. Its getting harder to find those people know though.

Regardless, 9th & Hope is a completely separate issue. It easily broke ground early enough (April 2014?) to keep going and be one of the first luxury towers to come online. They are not stalled from greater market conditions. It has to be something internal at CIM or within the city. CIM is losing extreme $$$ letting the site sit there. In my opinion its the most mysterious project in DTLA.

The issue I have is that you seem to be so emphatic about certain issues. Predictions can be made, but nobody can be certain of the beginnings or endings of any particular economic cycle. And just because you proclaim the cycle is over what does that even mean? Maybe the next cycle is starting again within the next few months? Doesn't seem like we're in for another Great Recession.

These predictions are akin to speculation about buildings with out facts. It's all just speculation. Even if you were a Nobel Economics guy, these would still just be predictions. So I'm not sure what sense it makes to run around 'WARNING' everyone that the cycle is over. You surely can state that as your opinion, but to insist that it's some kind of fact, just ruins your credibility. Even the best economists can only forecast. Most often they are wrong.

As far as 9th and Hope, that is indeed a mystery. Obviously CIM is embroiled in a battle with the city over their Hollywood Condo high rise. It's possible that the city is refusing to approve any further permits until that project is resolved, or they are having financial problems because of it, or perhaps both. I guess we'll find out sooner or later.

[Wilcal]

Originally Posted by Resident

Do you have a link for that website?? I bookmark those kind of websites and every once in a while take a lap around to see if anything changes.

Yes, here it is. http://1200southfigueroa.com/ I would think that these contract positions are met internally. If they are advertising on the internet does that mean that there is a labor shortage?

[black_crow]

Originally Posted by DTLAdenizen

What upsets me is I try and warn everybody the cycle is coming to an end, and they try and act like I'm crazy.

Nobody thinks you are crazy. You are a very valuable user of this forum, people respect you. It's just that some of us have a different point of view. (in certain topics)

I was one of the first here who told you, that I don't think, that the circle is over. But you know what? I have no problem with you being right. I would't like the fact that it's over, but that's it. Even experts are not always right and I am not an expert, I am an IT guy. I have friends that know more than I do, but it's still a passion and a hobby.

Don't try to throw pearls before swine.

[BrandonJXN]

Originally Posted by DTLAdenizen

What upsets me is I try and warn everybody the cycle is coming to an end, and they try and act like I'm crazy. Its getting harder to find those people know though.

Regardless, 9th & Hope is a completely separate issue. It easily broke ground early enough (April 2014?) to keep going and be one of the first luxury towers to come online. They are not stalled from greater market conditions. It has to be something internal at CIM or within the city. CIM is losing extreme $$$ letting the site sit there. In my opinion its the most mysterious project in DTLA.

Jesus Christ dude. Seriously. You should stick to taking pictures. A soothsayer isn't something you should aspire towards.

You seem so adamant about wanting this cycle to end for the sole reason to be right. You so want to say that I told you so. Sad really. You take great pictures but at least with me your track record for your content in your posts is rocky at best. And I mean from the very start. This former resident of Westlake has a great memory and I'll just leave it at that.

[Crackertastik]

I think it is interesting to read this conversation regarding the cycle, and whether it is over or not. As if it were a faucet, either spewing new projects, or bone dry. Perhaps the results of the past recession have given people this impression, because projects literally froze up. All other "cycles" downtown before are irrelevant in my view because the downtown area was prospective at-best for anything other than office on bunker hill, and it took some major risk and presumption to count on success.

The fact of the matter is there are developers who are early-in, who begin the process of entitlements, design, building et al. as the fundamentals of a market are just about to ramp up to obviously positive, or are starting to slow down normally. You have developers who wait for obvious indications. And you developers who lag, usually too long. There is usually a lull between the third mentioned and when the first begin again. A cycle. Very rarely is there a period of time where literally nothing is in development. Very rarely do you see crickets in a market like DTLA is now. And I mean that from a planning perspective, not just a building perspective.

I think it is safe to say that we are at the very least past the peak building period. So may there be a slowdown in new announcements, sure. That is bound to happen and I dont think indicative of stresses on the market or an issue. Does it mean projects are going to all of a sudden stall indefinitely, although entitled or announced. No. I dont believe so. I think that is someone paying attention to 2008-09 and thinking that is normal. Projects take years to get going. And a lot of time, major activity is going on, that appears as lonely empty lots to passerbys. Until it is not.

As an example, the Oceanwide Center project. I happen to know it is very much active in design, in brand adjustments for the hotel, in leasing activity for the mall. Its all ongoing. Just because the site is going vertical rapidly, doesnt mean its inactive / stalled.

So I say, lets all take a chill pill to the doom and gloom. This market is still very much attracting developers.

[ConstructDTLA]

Originally Posted by BrandonJXN

Jesus Christ dude. Seriously. You should stick to taking pictures. A soothsayer isn't something you should aspire towards.

You seem so adamant about wanting this cycle to end for the sole reason to be right. You so want to say that I told you so. Sad really. You take great pictures but at least with me your track record for your content in your posts is rocky at best. And I mean from the very start. This former resident of Westlake has a great memory and I'll just leave it at that.

I don't want the cycle to end - it'll force me to change the direction my business is going until it gets going again.

Originally Posted by Crackertastik

I think it is interesting to read this conversation regarding the cycle, and whether it is over or not. As if it were a faucet, either spewing new projects, or bone dry. Perhaps the results of the past recession have given people this impression, because projects literally froze up. All other "cycles" downtown before are irrelevant in my view because the downtown area was prospective at-best for anything other than office on bunker hill, and it took some major risk and presumption to count on success.

The fact of the matter is there are developers who are early-in, who begin the process of entitlements, design, building et al. as the fundamentals of a market are just about to ramp up to obviously positive, or are starting to slow down normally. You have developers who wait for obvious indications. And you developers who lag, usually too long. There is usually a lull between the third mentioned and when the first begin again. A cycle. Very rarely is there a period of time where literally nothing is in development. Very rarely do you see crickets in a market like DTLA is now. And I mean that from a planning perspective, not just a building perspective.

I think it is safe to say that we are at the very least past the peak building period. So may there be a slowdown in new announcements, sure. That is bound to happen and I dont think indicative of stresses on the market or an issue. Does it mean projects are going to all of a sudden stall indefinitely, although entitled or announced. No. I dont believe so. I think that is someone paying attention to 2008-09 and thinking that is normal. Projects take years to get going. And a lot of time, major activity is going on, that appears as lonely empty lots to passerbys. Until it is not.

As an example, the Oceanwide Center project. I happen to know it is very much active in design, in brand adjustments for the hotel, in leasing activity for the mall. Its all ongoing. Just because the site is going vertical rapidly, doesnt mean its inactive / stalled.

So I say, lets all take a chill pill to the doom and gloom. This market is still very much attracting developers.

For the record I don't think Fig Central is stalled. They're so invested theres no way they're going to pull back on those towers. The end of the cycle doesn't mean the end of everything, just the end of large financed projects like 1133 S Hope, Apex 2, Related Grand Ave, etc. Outside an economic collapse (which will happen again, but nobody knows exactly when) there's probably enough momentum at this point to keep low-rises / adaptive reuses going.

[Mojeda101]

I can attest that I ALWAYS called the CIM number posted on the site for the retail portion in order to get updates on the project. But for the past 4-6 months the number on the site has not answered the phone. It's strange. Does anyone have connections to the higher ups for CIM? Would be nice to see why this is the only project that has stalled. CIM might've had that ordeal in Hollywood with kicking out all the residents and I'm sure they dug into their pocket but they have other projects all around that haven't stalled. What makes this one so special? This was one of my favorite projects too. I hope they manage to get back on their feet or sell to someone who can make it happen.

[King Kill 'em]

http://southpark.la/oceanwide-notice-construction-closures/

some news on Fig Central

[black_crow]

Originally Posted by King Kill 'em

http://southpark.la/oceanwide-notice-construction-closures/

some news on Fig Central

Everything is working out.
Thank you for the update.

March.. I had a feeling.

[Crackertastik]

Originally Posted by DTLAdenizen

I don't want the cycle to end - it'll force me to change the direction my business is going until it gets going again.




For the record I don't think Fig Central is stalled. They're so invested theres no way they're going to pull back on those towers. The end of the cycle doesn't mean the end of everything, just the end of large financed projects like 1133 S Hope, Apex 2, Related Grand Ave, etc. Outside an economic collapse (which will happen again, but nobody knows exactly when) there's probably enough momentum at this point to keep low-rises / adaptive reuses going.

That's fair. I don't disagree. Although I think the Convention Center and the headquarters hotel is very much heating up and should happen. So maybe a few more limited and extraordinary projects may still come about in the near future.

I honestly don't have issue with those big projects slowing down a bit and allowing really high quality infill, to fill in the gaps between these mega projects. Lord knows the area has some gaps to fill and those tend to tie a neighborhood together better than neighboring mega projects.

[timpdx]

Originally Posted by King Kill 'em

http://southpark.la/oceanwide-notice-construction-closures/

some news on Fig Central

I smell a March 11 Mat Pour! (and pours the next 3 saturdays after that) I never doubted this one, although I do doubt some of the other projects will see this cycle.

[citywatch]

Originally Posted by DTLAdenizen

I don't want the cycle to end - it'll force me to change the direction my business is going until it gets going again.

Forumers like you deserve more latitude, if only since you do live in dtla or spend lots of time there, &, most importantly, due to things like your regular photo updates that help keep this thread from becoming too dry.

Whether a prediction of the current cycle coming to an end is accurate or not, it will help if you or any other forumer does keep a close eye on how quickly....or slowly....the various apt or condo projs are filling up. If it's difficult getting that info straight from the source, by contacting owners of new apt bldgs....who when questioned about how many tenants they've signed up, may reply with it's none of your business, or why are you interested in knowing that?!!....then a clue can be obtained by seeing how many windows in recently completed apt projs are either lit up or still dark at night.

I'm guessing that if new apt or condo bldgs are booking up at a fairly good rate, then devlprs of projs now under construction will feel more confident in what they're doing, or will be more confident in starting work on totally new projs. But if there are signs of a slowdown....or even if leasing rates right now remain very good but all the news about the stock market starting to fall have investors very spooked....then regrettably the up cycle may change to a down one.

I hope not cuz I'm still waiting for groundbreaking to occur on very important projs like the one across from pershing sq, or next to grand central mkt or the tower that's supposed to go up across from the long burned out bldg at the corner of 4th & broadway.

Then there remains the question of what the heck is going on with the long stalled related cos on grand ave proj across from Disney Hall.....beyond their work on the emerson apt tower next to the broad museum.

but everyone needs to remember that stating the obvious or being very honest or realistic about what's going on shouldn't cause the situation of....

[NativeOrange]

Ok looks like we've reached a mutual understanding (in the very least), about the "cycle".

I say we just leave it at that and don't speak a word of it until we are entering recession territory. Hopefully that doesn't happen for at least 5 more years, but hey, I'm optimistic.

[cesar90]

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