Canada Election 2015

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by JHikka

You know, it's crazy, but i've heard crazier things. Wouldn't put it past Rob Fife & Co.

Everyone needs to be reminded that the Conservatives are always under-projected in Polls by up to as much as 5%. Same thing happened to Cameron's Conservatives in their most recent election and the same will happen here. Shy Conservatives will always be shy.

In the UK Election in 2015 the final week polls had the Conservatives between 31% and 37%, most floating around 34 or 35%. They finished with 38% on Election Day. Miliband's Labour? As high as 35% expected and ended E-Day with 31%.

In Canada 2011 most final week polls had the Conservatives around 36%/37%...they ended up at 39%.

Given the three way (and four-way races in some areas) even just 3% is a massive possible swing.

The Conservstives weren't under-projected in Ontario, and in Alberta the far right party was actually over projected. I don't think you can generalize.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by travis3000

My prediction with 2 weeks to go remains the same.... Conservative minority of 150 to 160 seats. You will see the polls trend back to the Conservative lead by the last week, getting more pronounced by the final few days. I think Tories will take 36-38% of the vote, 30-32% for the Liberals, and 23-25% for the NDP.

-5 seats in Atlantic Canada
-10 seats in Quebec
-70 seats in Ontario
-20 seats in Sask/Man
-30 seats in Alberta
-20 seats in BC

Total: 155

Trudeau will form official opposition with 95-100 seats (23 in Atlantic Canada, 20-22 in Quebec, 35-36 in Ontario, and 18 in the west/territories).

NDP will be sent back to the 3rd place party with 65-75 seats (3-4 in Atlantic Canada, 38-40 in Quebec, 15 in Ontario, and 15-18 out west.

I disagree with your predictions Quebec and Ontario.

The highest the CPC ever had in Quebec was 10 after the 2006 and 2008 and they were cut to five in 2011. I just can't see any reason for the party gaining more than one or two seats even if the NDP support falls more. The CPC is least popular in Quebec of any province including Newfoundland and Labrador.

For Ontario, the CPC won 73 last time. There is absolutely no way that they will be even close to that this time. My bet is that they will lose at least 20 seats and almost all of them to the Liberals. A lot of Ontarians are set on defeating Harper and voter turnout will be higher than last time.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by JHikka

You know, it's crazy, but i've heard crazier things. Wouldn't put it past Rob Fife & Co.

Everyone needs to be reminded that the Conservatives are always under-projected in Polls by up to as much as 5%.

Um, it was the other way around for the Hudak Ontario PCs last year!

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Migs

Of course people created it, that goes without saying. The structure of capitalism that was created by sane hard working people is what created this webpage & the device you are currently using.

I thought you said you were leaving till after the election results and then you would come back to espouse the great Conservative sweep?

We were all looking forward to your absence and seeing only Conservatives ever keep their word on anything, why don't you keep yours and give us a 2 week reprieve from your unintelligent, ideological, insulting, and caustic comments.

[ssiguy]

Hey guys, let's drop the helmet debate and keep on topic shall we.

It is true that the Liberals have a disadvantage of where their support lies as they are heavily concentrated in the urban areas. Conversely they are not exactly in a position to bitch because the Maritimes have a grossly overinflated number of seats in relation to their population. The Liberals are very much the beneficiaries of the current seats distribution in the Maritimes so it is very much a 2 ways street.

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by Tfreder

Would you also like to release an official list as to which sources we can and can't use for every party?

Well for starters, maybe a company that actually belongs to the provincial Press Councils. In Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, and Alberta, Sun Media pulled the journalistic equivalent of "screw you guys, I'm going home" and has the only major newspapers that aren't held to any kind of journalistic standards.

Originally Posted by Migs

As long as the anti-Conservative CBC & CTV are accepted in this discussion, then so is Sun.

You're actually suggesting that the Sun is equivalent to CBC and CTV? Come on, the Sun is in a league of its own when it comes to political bias and spin. No other mainstream media in this country even comes close. It's the Canadian equivalent of Fox News. If you're going to read a conservative newspaper, at least read something half decent. The Sun isn't your only option.

[Loco101]

And a Forum poll done in the ultimate bellweather riding for Southern Ontario:

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/28e96...2015%2009%2025%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Peterborough always elects a candidate of the winning party both federally and provincially.

Poll:

Liberal 37%
CPC 34%
NDP 24%
Grn 4%
Oth 1%

I'm sure that the results for Ontario would be pretty close to the above if the election were held today.

The weird thing about this poll is that the lower income people are stronger CPC supporters and the higher income are strongly Liberal. But like much of Canada, the CPC has much stronger support from Men.

[ssiguy]

On yet another point...........Seeing this election is just about as close as it can get and a 2% sway in support can truly mean the difference in who wins and by how much, where does the Green party fit in?

A lot of people endorse many of the Green party's platform and particularly their commitment to democratic renewal. Many of potential Green votes ended up switching to the NDP at the last minute to try to make a difference in their particular riding. Conversely many disenchanted voters of all stripes would vote Green as a protest vote against all the parties. It was the people's way of saying a pox on all your houses.

I am wondering thou where a lot of those Green supporters will go at the very last minute this time. In such a close race people realize that every vote counts and very few will make the traditional Green protest vote. I would historically always say Green votes would go to the NDP but it is Trudeau who is making the commitments to both getting rid of FTTP and urban infrastructure which are 2 very strong planks of the Green party.

In such an incredibly tight race the small number of Green supporters switching {or not switching} at the last minute could mean quite a difference in particular ridings. I am curious where you think those Green votes will go.

[ssiguy]

Conservative supporters are also the most uneducated.

Sarnia is considered a bell weather riding.............it has elected the winning party ever single year since 1963.

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by Loco101

And a Forum poll done in the ultimate bellweather riding for Southern Ontario:

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/28e96...2015%2009%2025%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Peterborough always elects a candidate of the winning party both federally and provincially.

Poll:

Liberal 37%
CPC 34%
NDP 24%
Grn 4%
Oth 1%

I'm sure that the results for Ontario would be pretty close to the above if the election were held today.

The weird thing about this poll is that the lower income people are stronger CPC supporters and the higher income are strongly Liberal. But like much of Canada, the CPC has much stronger support from Men.

Ah David Nickle, losing elections in Peterborough for over 20 years

I like how they put "P'boro-Kawartha" in the headline. That's the oddest (and most unnecessary) abbreviation of Peterborough I've ever seen.

[Migs]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I thought you said you were leaving till after the election results and then you would come back to espouse the great Conservative sweep?

We were all looking forward to your absence and seeing only Conservatives ever keep their word on anything, why don't you keep yours and give us a 2 week reprieve from your unintelligent, ideological, insulting, and caustic comments.

Irony at its finest.

[Migs]

Conservative military veterans aim to counter ‘cowardly’ anti-Conservative group

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/poli...ve-group/article26662338/?service=mobile

[Migs]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Being born somewhere doesn't mean I need to respect or be proud of that place.

Canada performs extremely poorly in the developed world and it's only been getting worse under harper. The Liberals will set Canada back in motion where it belongs.

Facts aren't your friend.





Also just throw the TPP in there for good measure.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

At the end of the day, Parliament is always supreme. Laws can be changed and/or "notwithstandinged".

Thankfully so.

[MolsonExport]

Facts are not your friend either. There are no facts in this bar graph.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Conservative supporters are also the most uneducated.

I rest my case.

[SignalHillHiker]

The Conservatives actually paid for large campaign signs for the Ontarian reality star they're running in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Saw one this morning that was defaced with simply: "WTF?" Cute.

[Taeolas]

I'm not sure how it is in other ridings, but the Green Party seems to be doing an advertising blitz in Fredericton. I'm hearing a lot of GP ads on the radio and such, and there were people around the downtown bus station talking the party up. I suspect they're trying their best to capitalize on having a Green Party MPP here. (Come to think of it, he was probably the person canvasing the bus station but I didn't realize it at the time.)

Looking at 308, Freddy is where the GP seems to be polling the highest in Atlantic Canada (with around 10%. Most of Atlantic Canada is 3-5%), and outside of BC it's in the Top 10 or so highest ridings. It's not enough for them to take the seat (We're pretty solid red), but it certainly has caught attention.

[Migs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Facts are not your friend either. There are no facts in this bar graph.



I rest my case.

Forbes, one of the most highly respected & reputable business & financial news publication on earth ranked Canada #1 for business within the G20 nations, that is a fact. If you have issue with their findings, feel free to debate them.

[Migs]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

The Conservatives actually paid for large campaign signs for the Ontarian reality star they're running in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Saw one this morning that was defaced with simply: "WTF?" Cute.

Lefties finding the destruction of property amusing. Typical.

[Migs]

Trudeau is in full on class warfare mode right now. Its really quite unbelievable. On one hand he talks about Canada being a compassionate, inclusive people. On the other hand, he is going to get those rich b@stards.