Canada Election 2015 - Page 101

O-tacular · #**2001** Posted **Oct 5, 2015, 10:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by socialisthorde

Would it be uncanadian to cover them with a scarf?

No, a napkin.

kiwi · #**2002** Posted **Oct 5, 2015, 11:19 PM**

Mulcair is trying to bring forward the TPP as an issue in this election.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/tpp-talks-cast-shadow-on-campaign-trail-1.2594432

i don't think its going to work .. but at this point i don't know what Mulcair and the NDP can do to win this election.

*Stardust* · #**2003** Posted **Oct 5, 2015, 11:47 PM**

I know it's still pretty early, but I'm anticipating a Liberal minority with a Conservative opposition.

When are we going to reset the polls again?

ozonemania · #**2004** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 1:12 AM**

VICE meets Justin Trudeau

This 1/2 hr interview is decidedly geared towards addressing concerns of the younger demographic (but definitely not exclusive to them), got to say topics were brought up that I haven't heard much of at all for the whole campaign.

For that reason alone it worth watching.

Good interview!

kwoldtimer · #**2005** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 1:29 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by *Stardust*

I know it's still pretty early, but I'm anticipating a Liberal minority with a Conservative opposition.

When are we going to reset the polls again?

Two weeks to go, but I'm sticking with a Conservative minority as the most likely result.

kwoldtimer · #**2006** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 1:34 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think the niqab issue has caused a portion of the electorate in Quebec to have an "Et tu, Brutus?" moment with the NDP. In that they've realized the NDP could also embody certain things about Canada that makes them uncomfortable. Since the Layton days, many Quebecers were under the impression that the NDP wasn't a pan-Canadian party like the others. That's why so many of them flocked to the NDP. I do think that the NDP has always toed the progressive Anglo-Canadian line when it comes to multiculturalism, even since 2011, but it hasn't really had to take a clear stand (either way) on this issue and its ramifications until now.

Mulcair on Tout le monde en parle kind of tried to do some damage control last night. He kind of hinted that he (too) isn't fond of the niqab, but that we live in a society with the rule of law, and what the courts have to say has to be respected and blablabla. Which was in IMO one of the weaker parts of the interview. I mean the courts aren't God. And I suspect most people, in Quebec at least, if given the choice between the opinion of an elected assembly, and that of a bunch of appointed judges (who never have to face the electors), most would choose the assembly. I do realize that it's more complicated than choosing this simply between the two, and that the strength of our system lies in the proper balancing of these powers to find an acceptable middle ground. But I certainly wouldn't want to live in a country ruled only by Supreme Court judges.

At the end of the day, Parliament is always supreme. Laws can be changed and/or "notwithstandinged".

lio45 · #**2007** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 1:44 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Two weeks to go, but I'm sticking with a Conservative minority as the most likely result.

I'm surprised at how "inefficient" the LPC vote distribution is.

308 based mostly on the most recent Nanos (Liberals at 35.6% and Tories at 31.0%) yields a forecast of 122 ridings for the CPC and 118 ridings for the LPC.

Seems that most of the new voters gained by the Liberals lately are either in ridings that were already safely Liberal or then in ridings that they have no chance of taking...

kwoldtimer · #**2008** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 1:49 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

I'm surprised at how "inefficient" the LPC vote distribution is.

308 based mostly on the most recent Nanos (Liberals at 35.6% and Tories at 31.0%) yields a forecast of 122 ridings for the CPC and 118 ridings for the LPC.

Seems that most of the new voters gained by the Liberals lately are either in ridings that were already safely Liberal or then in ridings that they have no chance of taking...

Time for Quebeckers to think strategically and vote for the progressive option this time around.

lio45 · #**2009** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 1:50 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Time for Quebeckers to think strategically and vote for the progressive option this time around.

Do you mean the NDP, or the BQ, or the Greens...?!?

kwoldtimer · #**2010** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 1:58 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

Do you mean the NDP, or the BQ, or the Greens...?!?

The choice is clear......

Migs · #**2011** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 2:01 AM**

Trudeau's economic claims just not truthful

http://m.winnipegsun.com/2015/10/05/trud...t-not-truthful?google_editors_picks=true

In other words, if the numbers are nowhere close to your narrative, just make sh*t up. It's the Liberal way!

travis3000 · #**2012** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 2:03 AM**

My prediction with 2 weeks to go remains the same.... Conservative minority of 150 to 160 seats. You will see the polls trend back to the Conservative lead by the last week, getting more pronounced by the final few days. I think Tories will take 36-38% of the vote, 30-32% for the Liberals, and 23-25% for the NDP.

-5 seats in Atlantic Canada
-10 seats in Quebec
-70 seats in Ontario
-20 seats in Sask/Man
-30 seats in Alberta
-20 seats in BC

Total: 155

Trudeau will form official opposition with 95-100 seats (23 in Atlantic Canada, 20-22 in Quebec, 35-36 in Ontario, and 18 in the west/territories).

NDP will be sent back to the 3rd place party with 65-75 seats (3-4 in Atlantic Canada, 38-40 in Quebec, 15 in Ontario, and 15-18 out west.

travis3000 · #**2013** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 2:04 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migs

Trudeau's economic claims just not truthful

http://m.winnipegsun.com/2015/10/05/trud...t-not-truthful?google_editors_picks=true

Don't quote the Sun for anything Trudeau. If you are going to take stabs at Trudeau please stick with non biased sources, not Sun Media who are beyond biased in their pure hatred for anyone but Harper.

Tfreder · #**2014** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 2:15 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

Don't quote the Sun for anything Trudeau. If you are going to take stabs at Trudeau please stick with non biased sources, not Sun Media who are beyond biased in their pure hatred for anyone but Harper.

Would you also like to release an official list as to which sources we can and can't use for every party?

Migs · #**2015** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 2:16 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

Don't quote the Sun for anything Trudeau. If you are going to take stabs at Trudeau please stick with non biased sources, not Sun Media who are beyond biased in their pure hatred for anyone but Harper.

As long as the anti-Conservative CBC & CTV are accepted in this discussion, then so is Sun.

travis3000 · #**2016** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 2:20 AM**

The Sun is pure garbage, sprinkled with the occasional well written article. In high school and college we weren't even allowed to use The Sun in our schools as a source because it was considered tabloid. No media organization in Canada shows such bias in their writing. No matter what the NDP and Liberals come out with, The Sun attacks it. There's no winning. Harper is praised for taking a shit. How someone could cite this company for factual non partisan reporting is beyond me. Only a hard right winger would come out in strong support for The Sun because all their journalists come out strongly supporting/obsessing over Harper. Reporters should judge all political parties the same when covering an election. Even The Toronto Star has many reporters which write pro-Harper articles and make sure the stories are fair. You can't say this about The Sun.

csbvan · #**2017** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 3:03 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migs

As long as the anti-Conservative CBC & CTV are accepted in this discussion, then so is Sun.

The CTV is so biased that they planted Mike Duffy to bring down the Harper government, right? Genius!

whatnext · #**2018** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 3:05 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migs

Trudeau's economic claims just not truthful

http://m.winnipegsun.com/2015/10/05/trud...t-not-truthful?google_editors_picks=true

In other words, if the numbers are nowhere close to your narrative, just make sh*t up. It's the Liberal way!

Sort of like the way the Tories paint themselves as good economic managers even though Harper has presided over the most lacklustre economic record of any postwar PM and also brought in the biggest deficits.

Stingray2004 · #**2019** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 3:13 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

You will see the polls trend back to the Conservative lead by the last week, getting more pronounced by the final few days. I think Tories will take 36-38% of the vote, 30-32% for the Liberals, and 23-25% for the NDP.

Your hypothesis is entirely plausible. Over the past few fed elections, Nanos has also seen a Con spike during the latter part of the last week of the respective campaigns and especially on the weekend before e-day Monday.

I also suspect that the Cons, as an incumbent government with negatives, is seeing some of their previous soft support currently parked as undecided - the so-called "shy tory" effect.

As an aside, today's Nanos "Best PM" numbers show Mulcair in continued freefall - he's now at 20.7% (-2% overnight). Haven't seen Mulcair at that Nanos level since just before/during the AB election campaign. Might mean another drop in the Nanos party preference numbers tomorrow morning.

As a further aside, Mike MacDonald (BC Liberal campaign director during the 2013 BC election - who had daily access to CATI tracking polls/25 swing riding polls) just authored a pretty good piece on his views of current Nanos polling. Not a bad read:

https://rosedeer.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/carving-up-the-nanos-results-four-ways/

JHikka · #**2020** Posted **Oct 6, 2015, 3:16 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by csbvan

The CTV is so biased that they planted Mike Duffy to bring down the Harper government, right? Genius!

You know, it's crazy, but i've heard crazier things. Wouldn't put it past Rob Fife & Co.

Everyone needs to be reminded that the Conservatives are always under-projected in Polls by up to as much as 5%. Same thing happened to Cameron's Conservatives in their most recent election and the same will happen here. Shy Conservatives will always be shy.

In the UK Election in 2015 the final week polls had the Conservatives between 31% and 37%, most floating around 34 or 35%. They finished with 38% on Election Day. Miliband's Labour? As high as 35% expected and ended E-Day with 31%.

In Canada 2011 most final week polls had the Conservatives around 36%/37%...they ended up at 39%.

Given the three way (and four-way races in some areas) even just 3% is a massive possible swing.