Canada Election 2015

[eternallyme]

Based on my last prediction, here is the seat forecast:

Overall

CPC 131.8, LPC 100.2, NDP 89.4, BQ 3.1, GPC 1.5, OTH 1.3

(Tossups are given 0.5, 0.3 for 3 way and 0.2 for 4 way)

Actual seats, excluding tossups

CPC 118, LPC 93, NDP 75, BQ 1, GPC 1, OTH 0

Support base - safe seats only

CPC 68, LPC 36, NDP 24, GPC 1, BQ 0, OTH 0

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I think trudeau might poll this off but it's entirely dependent on how far the NDP fall.

I think they might drop below 20%. This federal election is screaming "ontario 2014" at me.

I kind of have that impression for the GTA and other not very conservative parts of Southern Ontario. The CPC should have won in those areas as the Liberal brand is controversial but Harper got to be too out of touch with the electorate there.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yeah, that's exactly how everyone in Quebec thinks. How did you guess?

I'm not sure why the snarky sarcasm. I put a question mark at the end of my sentence, as I was asking a question. Based on your statement "More people in Quebec do oppose it and we've given the reason we think there is that ''top up'' of opposition in Quebec: a greater support for secularism.."
Given that, I was curious as to whether there was the same level of general hatred directed at Sikhs and Hasidic Jews that Quebeckers seem to be comfortable expressing towards Muslims, something the Harpocrite is quite comfortable exploiting.

[Bcasey25raptor]

I believe Nano's numbers are right. Liberals are gaining. I'm noticing a real obama style trend right now with momentum gaining for the Liberals and the NDP crashing.

I hope I'm right but God I want Trudeau to win. I want to actually be proud of this country again.

[ssiguy]

^ If you require a Liberal government to "be proud of this country again" then I'm afraid you were never proud of it to begin with.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Given that, I was curious as to whether there was the same level of general hatred directed at Sikhs and Hasidic Jews that Quebeckers seem to be comfortable expressing towards Muslims, something the Harpocrite is quite comfortable exploiting.

Well, it's actually quite variable. The answer is "more or less". The "level of general hatred" isn't static, it depends greatly on the attitude of the various groups you mentioned.

Muslims demand and obtain the right to swear the citizenship oath while masked = many are outraged (i.e. hatred towards Muslims)

Sikhs demand and obtain the right to bring a lethal weapon to school grounds = many are outraged (i.e. hatred towards Sikhs)

Jews demand and obtain the right to leave their cars in a no overnight parking zone because of Shavouot = many are outraged (i.e. hatred towards Jews)

etc.

[ssiguy]

I don't know where you are coming up with only 36 safe seats for the Liberals.......they have 20 safe seats in Atlantic Canada alone.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I'm not sure why the snarky sarcasm. I put a question mark at the end of my sentence, as I was asking a question. Based on your statement "More people in Quebec do oppose it and we've given the reason we think there is that ''top up'' of opposition in Quebec: a greater support for secularism.."
Given that, I was curious as to whether there was the same level of general hatred directed at Sikhs and Hasidic Jews that Quebeckers seem to be comfortable expressing towards Muslims, something the Harpocrite is quite comfortable exploiting.

Snarky is as is snarky does. Your question was obviously hyperbolic.

I don't really see where it came from as it was in response to comments I made about women's rights. What is the relationship between women's rights and turbans worn by Sikh men, or long locks worn by Orthodox Jewish men?

I am not seeing it...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Snarky as is snarky does. Your question was obviously hyperbolic.

I don't really see where it came as it was in response to comments I made about women's rights. What is the relationship between women's rights and turbans worn by Sikh men, or long locks worn by Orthodox Jewish men?

I am not seeing it...

There is a relationship in the way that both niqabs and turbans could be, or not, "accomodated", depending on the circumstances.

For the record, Kathleen Wynne is anti-Sikh:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/turban-we...s-in-ontario-must-wear-helmets-1.1966854

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

Well, it's actually quite variable. The answer is "more or less". The "level of general hatred" isn't static, it depends greatly on the attitude of the various groups you mentioned.

Muslims demand and obtain the right to swear the citizenship oath while masked = many are outraged (i.e. hatred towards Muslims)

Sikhs demand and obtain the right to bring a lethal weapon to school grounds = many are outraged (i.e. hatred towards Sikhs)

Jews demand and obtain the right to leave their cars in a no overnight parking zone because of Shavouot = many are outraged (i.e. hatred towards Jews)

etc.

Hatred is probably way too strong a word anyway. At least for the vast majority of people we are talking about. In the case of islam, somehow I doubt Fatima Houda or Amir Khadir "hate'' muslims.

A ''malaise" is probably the best term to describe it.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Hatred is probably way too strong a word anyway. At least for the vast majority of people we are talking about. In the case of islam, somehow I doubt Fatima Houda or Amir Khadir "hate'' muslims.

Of course, and I'll also let you in a little secret: I doubt Kathleen Wynne truly "hates" Sikhs. I was really just playing along using his definitions, with which there doesn't seem to be any gap between frowning upon a particular behavior and full blown hatred of the entire ethnic group that's sometimes "guilty" of it.

So if you define being opposed to the niqab for the oath as hatred, then sure, we often "hate" various groups.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

There is a relationship in the way that both niqabs and turbans could be, or not, "accomodated", depending on the circumstances.

For the record, Kathleen Wynne is anti-Sikh:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/turban-we...s-in-ontario-must-wear-helmets-1.1966854

Well, well.

Based on this, and also this poll...

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News...Fed_Racism_(18092013)_Forum_Research.pdf

... and the fact that about 95+% of the anti-Sikh comments I have heard in my life were from Anglo-Canadians, I think I can say that Anglo-Canadians (especially in Ontario and BC) are considerably more racist against Sikhs than Quebecers are.

For the ''wrong reasons".

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

^ If you require a Liberal government to "be proud of this country again" then I'm afraid you were never proud of it to begin with.

Being born somewhere doesn't mean I need to respect or be proud of that place.

Canada performs extremely poorly in the developed world and it's only been getting worse under harper. The Liberals will set Canada back in motion where it belongs.

Also on a side not.

Lets report our neighbours for barbaric practices.

http://www.reportyourneighbour.ca/

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Well, well.

Based on this, and also this poll...

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News...Fed_Racism_(18092013)_Forum_Research.pdf

... and the fact that about 95+% of the anti-Sikh comments I have heard in my life were from Anglo-Canadians, I think I can say that Anglo-Canadians (especially in Ontario and BC) are considerably more racist against Sikhs than Quebecers are.

For the ''wrong reasons".

In the case of Wynne I would say she's totally racist against Sikhs "for the right reasons", at least.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by lio45

In the case of Wynne I would say she's totally racist against Sikhs "for the right reasons", at least.

So would I. The right reason being, that an actual reason exists!

[Stingray2004]

Regarding Nanos, these are two very important demographics therein that the political parties also follow closely within their internals:

The female demographic from Aug, 2014 up to Oct 3, 2015:



And the 60+ age demographic from Aug. 2014 up to Oct. 3, 2015 (would have preferred 55+ age demo but whatever):

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I kind of have that impression for the GTA and other not very conservative parts of Southern Ontario. The CPC should have won in those areas as the Liberal brand is controversial but Harper got to be too out of touch with the electorate there.

Interesting that Greg Lyle of Innovative Research provides these insights tonight on the GTA:

The ring of suburbs around Toronto is not uniform political territory. Closer to Toronto, they tend to lean more left; farther out, more Conservative. There are newer suburbs east of Highway 400, such as Markham, with a large East Asian and Chinese-Canadian population, with middle-class “strivers” who are more receptive to the Conservative message, Mr. Lyle said. “They’ve got big dreams, and they’re on their way to get them,” he said. To the west of Toronto, in Brampton, Mississauga or even Oakville, many of the suburbs are more established, more like Toronto, and more Liberal. The Conservatives picked up many of those ridings in 2011, but they’ll be the first 905 ridings they lose, Mr. Lyle said.

But the Conservative bounce back hasn’t made it 2011 again. The party won 48 per cent of the vote in the GTA suburbs in 2011 and has 42-per-cent support now, Mr. Lyle said. But instead of the 19-point lead the Conservatives held over the Liberals in the past election, they had only a seven-point edge in late September. And a slight shift either way can turn a swath of seats red or blue – and turn the national results.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/poli...een-tories-and-liberals/article26646089/

[Bcasey25raptor]

I'll 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 take it. Hell yes. NDP crashing like the Titanic

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/...rvatives-steady-nanos-tracking-1.2595031

[MonctonRad]

Indeed.......

How do you define "free fall"???

[Bcasey25raptor]

Eko's poll numbers seem to show the opposite trend.

This election is so hard to predict I keep flip flopping back and fourth between different predictions.

All I can say I'm certain of is that there will be a minority government of some kind. Which party wins this minority depends heavily on a few factors.

As it stands I won't consider it a coin toss, I'll state theres a 70% chance Harper will win a minority and a 30% chance the Liberals will. However if the trends continue Trudeau may poll off the 40% vote that can get him either a majority government or damn close to it.

However knowing the strength of the Tory war machine and the fact 2 weeks still remain, I doubt Trudeau will remain as strong as he is now leading into the campaign.

1) if the NDP pick up any gains at all then Trudeau is not winning this election
2) if the NDP drop below 20% support and those who left the NDP move to the Liberals, then Trudeau can pull off a strong minority, if the NDP drop to 15% (Unlikely), trudeau can poll off a majority.
3) if the drop in NDP in quebec moves to the Tories it won't make a huge difference but I predict the Tories will win around 8 seats in Quebec.


My vote percentages per party are as follows
1) Tories will win anywhere between 30% and 35% of the vote ( I cannot see them getting even close to their 2011 numbers)
2) The Liberals will get anywhere between 28% and 38%, they could get higher but that all depends on where the NDP vote parking goes. As it stands I cannot see the Liberals getting less then 28% of the vote.
3) NDP will get anywhere between 18% and 25%.
4) Greens will get anywhere between 2% to 8%
5) The Bloc (in quebec only) will get around anywhere from 18% to 25%, I do not have federal numbers.