Canada Election 2015

[geotag277]

It's kind of funny how obvious the politically charged language is being used here. All parties are polling at about the same support but somehow if Conservative representatives get more votes and representatives in the house in a minority government situation, somehow this is a grave fault of our FPTP system.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by flar

A Liberal or NDP minority, with roughly equal support for three parties, also does not give a clear mandate, but has a much better chance of becoming a functional government, because both of these parties are more closely aligned with each other as well as the values of the majority of Canadians.

I would say that the chances of a functional government depend nearly entirely on the attitude of the parties. If they want to make it work, then can, if they don't, it won't work.

Attitudes like "we are already committing to topple you immediately, regardless" do not augur well for making a minority govt work.

[geotag277]

I'm calling it now. 2 votes of no confidence in the next 3 years. And plenty of upset pissed off Canadians.

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by rousseau

The NDP and the Liberals are closer to each other on the ideological spectrum.

That's a good point, especially now that the NDP seem to be drifting to the right while the Liberals are drifting to the left. It mirrors what happened with the Ontario election last year. The end result is that supporters of the NDP and Liberals have pretty similar values, and those values are held by most of the population.

Originally Posted by lio45

The CPC is a big government party, they're barely to the right of anyone. They're a big government party, but with a pro-religion, anti-abortion, anti-science flavor. That's not "the right". The true right would be for the smallest, leanest government, and that government would absolutely keep its nose out of people's betrooms and uteri.

To build on my point above, left and right are constantly shifting. For the last generation at least, it's been liberals who have held the "keep the government out of the nation's bedrooms" view. Conservatives have been the ones inserting religion into government, spreading mistrust of science, etc. The red tories you describe are a rare breed in government these days. Hopefully that changes. Although, in keeping with the federal election mirroring what happened in Ontario last year, I wouldn't count on it.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

The Liberals were no different.

Yes but were they held in contempt of Parliament as Harper has been multiple times?

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by lio45

IThe CPC is a big government party, they're barely to the right of anyone. They're a big government party, but with a pro-religion, anti-abortion, anti-science flavor. That's not "the right". The true right would be for the smallest, leanest government, and that government would absolutely keep its nose out of people's betrooms and uteri.

Erm, pro-religion, anti-abortion and anti-science pretty much defines the social attitudes of the right. What on earth are you talking about?

When has any right wing party in history ever kept its noses out of people's business? Right wingers who actually, sincerely do believe in small government are vanishingly few, and there is no real choice out there for the so-called socially liberal economically conservative bunch, so they just vote right. Lots of the right wingers say they want small government, but they don't really, because they always want a massive military to protect baby Jesus from the Hindus and the hippies.

What you're actually talking about is some sort of ideologically pure wing of the libertarian crowd that essentially wouldn't care if shoddy aspirin killed hundreds at a time, because "freedom." They're a whole other level of insane.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by geotag277

I'm calling it now. 2 votes of no confidence in the next 3 years. And plenty of upset pissed off Canadians.

Hey, between my fiancee and I, we're making over $1500 working for Elections Canada for the advance polls. Bring it on.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by ozonemania

Never said anything about how they compare to other parties, past or present. You're reading with your own bias, that somehow my argument against the Conservatives is an argument for everyone else. The Harper Conservatives had a choice on how they wanted to govern and they own that for better or for worse.

Especially considering Harper's whole campaign at the start was based on cleaning up politics in Ottawa.

[rousseau]

Can you tell I'm angry? People are angry. People who normally wouldn't talk too much about politics are talking about it. Sure, I'm self-selecting for an anti-Harper social milieu, no question. But I don't recall people getting this exercised about kicking out a sitting government in a long time.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Yes but were they held in contempt of Parliament as Harper has been multiple times?

That was one time, and it was nothing but a political game.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

That was one time, and it was nothing but a political game.

Actually it was twice iirc.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Erm, pro-religion, anti-abortion and anti-science pretty much defines the social attitudes of the right.

Ummm, I'm certainly considered right wing on this forum. I'm an atheist, I support abortion up until the point that a fetus can safely be removed to become a baby, I believe in AGW and pretty much any science 🞵🞵🞵🞵 you want to throw at me. I think that marijuana should be taxed and regulated and other drugs should be decriminalized, and those found using them should be offered treatment. I think that people should have the right to choose the time of their death if they have a debilitating and incurable ailment. I think that people should be able to buy and sell 🞵🞵🞵 freely. I think that Canada should meet its promised target of 0.7% of GDP for foreign aid. I like Trudeau's infrastructure bank.

On the other hand, I think that punishment and rehabilitation should be given equal weight in criminal justice, though some people (such as pedophiles - science tells me this) can't be rehabilitated and should possibly be locked away for life (I'm not comfortable with the death penalty as we could be wrong). The military should be funded to the promised 2.0% of GDP we agreed to. The government should stay out of the arts for the most part. The CBC should go away. Debt should be reduced, and taxes should be kept reasonably low. Tax credits and loopholes should be largely done away with in favour of lower (but still progressive) rates.

I could go on, but that gives you the broad strokes.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Actually it was twice iirc.

I only remember the one time.

[geotag277]

I would actually characterize the "political right" around Government enforced social intervention (anti gay marriage and anti abortion), favouring military involvement and expanded military presence, and generally endorsing sweeping tax cuts with economic programs following from base principals of tax cuts (regardless what actual economic experts say). All modern governments expand government programs, it is partly out of necessity as I would judge a government's spending mostly on per capita obligations, and Canada is growing quite quickly so I do expect our government and our government spending (and revenues) to also grow.

Regarding the social aspects of the "political right", the Conservatives clearly pay lip service to those things, but don't act on it, especially at the federal level. Provincially is another matter, but when it comes to federal politics the social conservative lip service is a non-factor. This is the most striking difference in values between the parties, but federally since it is a non issue I suggest it not inform voting choices. Although I can certainly understand the moral qualms people have with this issue and why one wouldn't vote for Conservatives based on the same.

Regarding the military aspects of the political right, all parties have shades and platforms involving military spending, it's essentially a difference of flavour. I don't see much difference in the parties here. Of course Conservatives are fear mongering over ISIS, but each of the party leaders have their own pet military projects. All parties have plans for refugees and making sure Canada is safe. I don't see much difference in values here. I see "political right" values in all parties.

Regarding spending, everyone seems to be talking about tax cuts, so I really don't see much difference between the parties here. Again there are just different shades and flavours to raising revenue that cross political value spectrums. NDP and Conservatives are probably the closest here as both talk about balancing the budget and both talk about economic benefit primarily with their government programs. Although Liberals are not far off. Again, I see "political right" values in all parties.

So there you have it. The one clear stark difference in Conservative values on the political right spectrum is in social issues which the federal government is not even involved in. Splitting the left? No, we are splitting right leaning economic leanings three ways.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by lio45

Especially since it might start a spiral outside Quebec.

I have the feeling that one of the main things the NDP has had going for it is the fact that the province with the second most seats appeared (and I'd say still appears...) to be totally on track to massively vote for them.

Just that, alone, is already a pretty good argument to help convince some of the center-left anti-Harper votes to try to coalesce around the NDP instead of the LPC.

The NDP already has Quebec locked in... the LPC in comparison seems to have less solid support, so it makes sense to try to build around the NDP's better base.

If the NDP starts to appear to lose their grip on Quebec, then I would definitely see this helping the center-left vote coalesce around the LPC country-wide.

The NDP could (or might not) lose support between now and the election, but a loss of support in Quebec would not be much of a factor affecting numbers outside the province, imo. I have absolutely no sense here in my corner of SW Ontario that anybody is taking the NDP's strength in Quebec into account in considering how they will vote. In my riding, the only strategic voting option is shaping up to be Liberal, since the NDP candidate seems to be in third place.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

The NDP could (or might not) lose support between now and the election, but a loss of support in Quebec would not be much of a factor affecting numbers outside the province, imo.

I think it matters because of this - many people want Harper gone (hell, even I'm one of those people). Earlier in the campaign, the NDP was seen as the best vehicle to achieve that end. It has been subtly shifting to the Liberals, in spite of Trudeau.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Last night's TVO interview with Ralph Nader was interesting with his perspective on how Canada has become more polarized and how we've lost our moderate, socially responsible stance :

http://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/whats-happening-to-canada

It seems like we've lost shared goals of what Canada should become — there was a time when Liberals and Conservatives merely argued about the methods to strive toward similar ideals.

Great interview! Thanks for posting that. One of the biggest reasons I want the Conservatives to lose is the TPP. My only fear is that the Liberals will just ratify it anyway if they win.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by lio45

I'd say, we're mostly two Quebec debates away from e-day...
(FWIW, Acajack compared it to a prostate exam for Mulcair, I chose instead to go with the root canal )

I doubt it will soothe the masses, but I thought that what Mulcair had to say yesterday about the niqab made perfect sense. If he sticks to that, I'm not sure there's not much more Duceppe and Harper to do, except to continue to repeat their attacks.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

I think it matters because of this - many people want Harper gone (hell, even I'm one of those people). Earlier in the campaign, the NDP was seen as the best vehicle to achieve that end. It has been subtly shifting to the Liberals, in spite of Trudeau.

Ironically, in the unlikely event that Quebec were to fall in love with Trudeau, I think Ontario might take notice, but it would be the Conservatives who would see a drop in support, at least as much and probably more as the NDP.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by geotag277

I'm calling it now. 2 votes of no confidence in the next 3 years. And plenty of upset pissed off Canadians.

I'm not sure why Canadians would be any more upset by such a scenario than there were wrt other minority governments that couldn't last our their term.