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Originally Posted by Encolpius
Why zero TOD potential? I get that you both may be exaggerating slightly but I still don't really understand: why couldn't a new light rail line running through Lair Hill be a great catalyst for development there?
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Let me try to address your questions:
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Without having read the PDF, from an urbanism standpoint I don't see how a new line along Barbur or Naito wouldn't be wonderful for that neighborhood, and a new pedestrian link to Marquam Hill via public escalator or tram station or whatever would be icing on the cake.
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A Barbur Blvd MAX station would be fine for Lair Hill, although it will only get 1 or 2 stops. The real question is what happens when Trimet widens Barbur in order to actually fit the MAX into the streetscape - we're talking at least 40' ROW widening, which means a lot of buildings are going to get torn down. If they expand the street to the east, there will be a much higher embankment. If they expand to the west, quite a few townhomes will go.
However, most development along Barbur (along the entire length of the road) is concentrated along one side or the other (steep hillsides and I-5 block the other half of land within TOD range), minimizing the TOD opportunities to 1/2 of what you would get compared to say the Yellow line, for instance.
See for instance Barbur & Terwilliger: what TOD opportunities are they exactly expecting at a freeway entrance?
My question is how many people who live in Lair Hill are actually going to ride the MAX to downtown?
The neighborhood is only a couple of blocks away, and if the new line doesn't actually connect anything on its southern end...
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Even if you tunnel under Marquam Hill, passengers will still need to use some kind of stairs/escalator/elevator to get to the surface.
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Due to the height of Marquam (~250' above Barbur) they would need to use an elevator, like they do at the zoo station. A high-speed elevator can make the trip in under 1 minute.
OHSU is the city's largest employer, so a lot of people could potentially use the MAX to access OHSU.
A 1/4 mile escalator ride and hike up 250' elevation to the top of Marquam Hill is going to take the average person 15 minutes or so, whereas a station directly under the campus will take a minute or two. Massive savings - and, considering the driving time to OHSU, most people will likely continue to drive, making a station on Barbur somewhat useless.
It is telling that the document posted by Metro says nothing about transit ridership
to access OHSU, and instead focuses on thru-trips to/from downtown only. Its also telling that they predict
8% higher ridership and 7% shorter commute times with a tunnel!
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This seems like a relatively easy problem compared to your typical subway station. To give an example from where I live, London's stations typically have platforms that are around 100 m (328 feet) below the surface. If I get off the Jubilee Line at Waterloo, I need to take three or four flights of escalators to get to the surface.
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Not according to the internet:
14. The deepest station is Hampstead on the Northern line, which runs down to 58.5 metres.
15. In Central London the deepest station below street level is also the Northern line. It is the DLR concourse at Bank, which is 41.4 metres below.
The deepest station in the world is in Kiev, at 105 meters.
The OHSU station would be 75 meters deep, and would likely use an elevator with a vertical shaft accessing the tunnel directly below, like the zoo stop.
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Absolutely, though obviously that's a far grander project (in total) than what's required to get to the top of Marquam Hill. The engineers could also look at the central Italian region of Umbria. Most of the population centers sit atop hills but the rail and highway networks run through the valleys, so every town has had to come up with a network of stairs, ramps, elevators, escalators, shuttles, funiculars and/or cable cars to get people from the train station to the heart of the old city. Marquam Hill would seem like a cakewalk to the engineers who designed the funiculars in Orvieto or Perugia.
The most elegant solution would seem to be adding a Barbur Blvd. spur to the aerial tram. Be great if they could manage that.
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There is going to be a lot of geoengineering requires for this line, no matter if they tunnel or excavate half of Marquam Hill for a surface grade line. For instance, the Metro document states that Trimet will need to completely replace all of the Barbur Blvd bridges south of downtown. They will also require excavation cuts along the hill, and massive retaining walls ~40' or higher to prevent landslides.
By comparison, the I-5 Iowa st. bridge replacement project was roughly the same length as Barbur along the hillside, and was likely similar in scope to what would be required for a MAX line.
It cost $38 million.
http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/HWY/REGION1/pages/iowaviaduct/index.aspx
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By comparison, Metro is estimating what, $3.1 billion for a tunnel? That seems laughably high. Which is way, way higher than even the Seattle University link light rail subway, which is $1.9 billion for 3 miles.
I suspect they are taking worst-case scenario numbers, padding them with worst-case scenario budget overruns, doubling the number, and then downplaying the ridership numbers.