Warning, long post but laden with information.
Because I needed to fill some time last night, I went looking for possible numbers regarding how many residential units downtown SLC could support currently.
I ended up coming across the full document spread from the State of Downtown event. In there, this document was fairly interesting:
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/742oyt0j381cl...DLERa/2015%20DTA%20Survey%20WEB.pdf?dl=0
It is a survey done by Richter 7 to get information from roughtly 600+ people throughout the state but focusing more on the area from Weber County, Davis County, Utah County and Salt Lake County. It gives the survey roughly a 3% margin of error for the counties listed.
It asked general questions about what is liked or not liked about downtown as well as where you shop, work and the like.
It then asks if people would consider living downtown. 25% of the respondents stated they would like to live downtown. This is up from 22% in 2013.
There is a breakdown by income. It isn't surprising that the largest group that would like to live downtown brings in $150,000 or more yearly. What is surprising is that the next 2 groups (tied) are the Under $25,000 yearly and the $25,000 to $49,999 yearly.
It also provided a breakdown by age groups. It was a bit surprising given that we know that the younger generation around the country have been moving to the city but thought that Utah would be different. It really isn't. Age groups break out as follows for those that want to live downtown:
18-24: 46%
25-29: 33%
30-34: 22%
35-39: 15%
40-44: 22%
45-54: 21%
55-64: 27%
This does show that there is a strong desire for both the old (empty nests) and the young (just starting/young families) to live downtown.
From the numbers (using the 3% margin of error) 22% - 28% of the population of the Wasatch Front that would consider living downtown currently. That is higher than most people would think and that does show that downtown could provide a lot more residential units going forward.
Using 2,000,000 (low I know) as the Wasatch Front population, 20% is still 400,000 people that would consider living in downtown Salt Lake City today.
So, what is holding people back from making the move?
For people that would consider living in downtown the #1 issue is cost. #2 is employment opportunities.
#2 goes hand in hand with population. As residential population increases, jobs will locate closer. We are seeing this currently. It would only increase as more residents are added.
#1 however goes to the discussion earlier about impact fees. Unless the SLC Council does some changes, the impact fees per unit will climb back up to roughly $5,000. This will stifle growth and limit it to just the high end and remove roughly 90% of the people that would like to live downtown.
That takes the 400,000 number from above down to 40,000.
I do think that if the impact fees could be dropped by 1/2 from where they are today and go lower based on density (keep the fee to ensure utilities are upgraded accordingly) maybe down to $200 per unit with densities greater than 50 units per acre?
If we use the numbers and say only 20% of them (80,000 people) were able to live downtown because prices drop, this could translate to between 20,000 and 45,000 units being built within downtown SLC today.
What this does is show that there is strong demand for downtown living but cost is the strongest factor for limiting that demand. If costs were to decrease for both rents and condo prices, the demand would keep the construction boom going for years and years. We might finally see a highrise apartment building or 2.
The demand would be enough to offset the reduction in impact fees. Just imagine another 80,000 people living downtown, especially when the last census had the downtown population at roughly 5,000 people.
Downtown would be lively 24/7, services would increase, sales would increase and tax revenue would increase for the city to allow for providing increased services to residents throughout the city.
What was shocking in the report is the breakdown by County for those who would consider living downtown. The #1 Country that would consider living downtown is Utah County at 29%, SL County is 28% but still. That shocked me that Utah County would be that high.