Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[st7860]

Originally Posted by lio45

FYI, I didn't invent all this:

(Nor are those people all me under a different username)

I don't see any names on the list that are the same as you attest to

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by casper

The pattern I have seen a few times. The kids move out west, start careers and families. The retirees hid retirement age, conclude all the grand-kids are on the west coast and its warmer out there in winter and move.

.

Every type of migration does exist. This one too - but it's a micro-phenomenon. Related to my earlier post where I talked about younger people wanting to stay in Canada and choosing BC to "build their lives" because of the climate and the environment.

Yes, the parents of such young people *might* move out to BC in retirement.

I know people who've moved to Sudbury, Rimouski and Halifax in retirement to be closer to their kids and grandkids.

But... moving "cold" and leaving everyone and everything behind back east to move to BC to retire there? That's gotta be pretty rare. So rare that I have never heard of it.

Even snowbirds that go to Florida don't move permanently (I realize there are also other factors at play like medicare) and the move for 99% of people is a partial one: 4-6 months down there and the rest of the year up here.

Even without the medicare and immigration issues I doubt most of them would stay down there year-round.

[dleung]

^^It certainly explains part of the reason why there is so much visible wealth in BC despite "low wages", and why BC has the highest median age after the Maritimes.

Originally Posted by lio45

It's the least undesirable location for Canadians who are, for some reason, forced to permanently relocate away from their home province and kids and grandkids and friends. I'll grant you that...

LOL

edit: I'm reminded of that thread where a Maritimer asked for advice on where within BC to retire, and Lio promptly told him to forget BC and go to Florida instead
http://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=216244

[lio45]

Originally Posted by st7860

I'll try to make it as easy as possible for you to understand. Canada is a warm country in many areas such as Toronto, Vancouver, and the interior of BC

Just when I thought your credibility couldn't get any lower...

Sure, Canada is a warm country. Balmy Toronto, this winter, was full of foreigners flocking there to spend the winter in a warm location. You couldn't spit without hitting a retiree carrying his golf clubs.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by dleung

LOL

edit: I'm reminded of that thread where a Maritimer asked for advice on where within BC to retire, and Lio promptly told him to forget BC and go to Florida instead
http://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=216244

Of course. It's good advice, so I'd gladly give it again any time if I heard again someone from Canada wonder what's the best way to escape snow and cold

Look up "snowbird" and educate yourself a bit on the phenomenon. If it weren't good advice, there wouldn't be so many of them!

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Right, because we have so many Ontario transplant neighbours that it's ludicrous to suggest it's not happening. I think I know more people that have moved from the east than were born in BC.

Anecdotal evidence? Sure, okay. I've been in BC in wintertime once, and have spent many winters in FL too. I can report that one sees about 100x more Ontario license plates in FL in winter than in BC in winter.

That's my bit of anecdotal evidence from having actually been to both places during peak winter travel season (Christmas holidays).

No one is saying no Ontarian ever moves to BC, just that BC isn't really a big retiree magnet. Even according to sunsetmountainland's link, only ~5% consider retiring there, and IMO it's a safe bet that much less than that end up actually relocating there permanently for retirement. ~85% of Ontarians plan to remain in Ontario (>6 months of the year) upon retirement.

[Acajack]

99.9% of the comments I have ever heard about people wanting to move to BC would be broadly covered by one of these three statements:

- "The cold here is driving me nuts guys. I gotta go out to BC, man. I've applied to UVic/UBC OR I've applied for jobs out there/I am heading out there looking for work." young adults

- "I need to get away from the cold. Shopping for a transfer out to BC as much as I can." working age people employed by national organizations: RCMP, DND, Canada Post, CBC, banks, etc.

- "I am moving to Whistler to become a ski bum." take a wild guess

[esquire]

Not that I've been following the discussion all that closely, but I would say that a lot of would-be BC retirees are priced out of that market. Vancouver is very appealing but for many middle class retirees, it would mean a major drop in living standards. The Okanagan is better, but then you're away from a lot of the urban delights, and summers can be oppressively hot. Van. Island is somewhere in between.

Not surprisingly, a lot of prairie retirees go to where there is much better bang for the buck, like Palm Springs, Phoenix, Tucson, southern Texas and yes, Florida. However, if you could buy a nice, largish house for, say, $500K in Vancouver or surrounding area, I'm sure many would opt to do that instead.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by esquire

Not surprisingly, a lot of prairie retirees go to where there is much better bang for the buck, like Palm Springs, Phoenix, Tucson, southern Texas and yes, Florida.

Right. As (nearly) everyone knows...

Also, seems obvious to me that bang for the buck DOES play a huge role in people's retirement choices. It's always been a factor in this discussion: as proof, post below, bold just added, from three pages ago, back when this whole discussion was just beginning...

Originally Posted by lio45

I like BC, but I think it's expensive for what you get. I also found it cold and rainy while I was there.

Most of my friends and family are in Quebec. If I retired tomorrow, I sure wouldn't pay anywhere near current Vancouver prices to permanently relocate to an expensive, cold, rainy place many thousands of kilometers away. Wouldn't be worth it at all.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by dleung

^^It certainly explains part of the reason why there is so much visible wealth in BC despite "low wages", and why BC has the highest median age after the Maritimes.




LOL

edit: I'm reminded of that thread where a Maritimer asked for advice on where within BC to retire, and Lio promptly told him to forget BC and go to Florida instead
http://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=216244

Funny, and Its really amusing when unnamed individuals quote themselves lol

[st7860]

Originally Posted by lio45

Just when I thought your credibility couldn't get any lower...

Sure, Canada is a warm country. Balmy Toronto, this winter, was full of foreigners flocking there to spend the winter in a warm location. You couldn't spit without hitting a retiree carrying his golf clubs.

Exactly. Canada is a warm country and people are coming to Toronto. I appreciate the agreement

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

But... moving "cold" and leaving everyone and everything behind back east to move to BC to retire there? That's gotta be pretty rare. So rare that I have never heard of it.

Even snowbirds that go to Florida don't move permanently (I realize there are also other factors at play like medicare) and the move for 99% of people is a partial one: 4-6 months down there and the rest of the year up here.

Even without the medicare and immigration issues I doubt most of them would stay down there year-round.

If you've spent some summer time in Florida you'll have noticed that Quebec summers are generally more pleasant, so it makes no sense at all to stay away from home (and your kids, grandkids, friends) year-round.

I am probably going to be spending time again over there this summer as we now have a little bunch of permanent operations to oversee over there and climactically-speaking I'm not really looking forward to it. If all you do is beach stuff for a week or two then that's fine, but if you want to work (or play golf, etc. as a retiree) you'll wish you were in Quebec (or just anywhere in Canada) to do that.

Keeping your health insurance is just one more excellent reason, on top of already very good ones, to come back home for the "nicer" half of the year...

[st7860]

http://www.topretirements.com/reviews/CANADA/Victoria.html
Victoria is one of the most visited tourist destinations in Canada, and for good reason. It has a stunning downtown on the harbor with resplendent government buildings like the one shown above. Cruise ships arrive in town and when they do the streets and shops hum with activity. The city has 78,000 residents but the metro is over 300,000. The surrounding coast has many lovely communities.

Retirees love the mild climate of Vancouver Island and so do plants of every kind. It is said to be one of the best gardening areas in the world. There is a tremendous amount to do.

[1overcosc]

Generally the housing talk is about markets being overvalued.

I'm not a real estate expert but to me the Kingston RE market seems undervalued.

Rents here are about as high as they are in Ottawa & Toronto but land values are much lower. There's properties here worth $190k yielding $2000/month in rental income.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by Acajack

99.9% of the comments I have ever heard about people wanting to move to BC would be broadly covered by one of these three statements:

- "The cold here is driving me nuts guys. I gotta go out to BC, man. I've applied to UVic/UBC OR I've applied for jobs out there/I am heading out there looking for work." young adults

- "I need to get away from the cold. Shopping for a transfer out to BC as much as I can." working age people employed by national organizations: RCMP, DND, Canada Post, CBC, banks, etc.

- "I am moving to Whistler to become a ski bum." take a wild guess

That first one: really? Kids in their teens or early twenties in Ontario or Quebec wanting to go to BC for school or jobs due to the cold here?

Sounds unlikely to me. In my experience eighteen-year-olds complaining about the February cold in Toronto are far more likely to be seduced by the Facebook pics of cousins surfing in California or wearing flip-flops in Florida. They aren't looking longingly at at the rainy cold in Vancouver.

Add me to the anecdotal list of those who've never heard of anyone from Ontario retiring to BC. I have heard about Victoria's reputation as a retirement hot spot, but it never squared with my own experience. So that link showing that it's mainly Prairie people retiring to BC made sense to me. I do recall that when I lived in Winnipeg I heard people talk wistfully about the mountains or the "lifestyle" in Vancouver. Looking to BC to escape cold or retire really is specifically a Prairie thing, I think.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by Acajack

99.9% of the comments I have ever heard about people wanting to move to BC would be broadly covered by one of these three statements:

- "The cold here is driving me nuts guys. I gotta go out to BC, man. I've applied to UVic/UBC OR I've applied for jobs out there/I am heading out there looking for work." young adults

- "I need to get away from the cold. Shopping for a transfer out to BC as much as I can." working age people employed by national organizations: RCMP, DND, Canada Post, CBC, banks, etc.

- "I am moving to Whistler to become a ski bum." take a wild guess

You got that right. The top comprehensive university in Canada is in Metro Vancouver. Its so highly common for people to do that as you say its not funny.

Almost everywhere in BC is a magnet for retirees or others in general looking for a mild climate. Urban retirees, island retirees, and the list goes on.

[niwell]

Anecdotally speaking I have heard of a very small number of young people from Ontario who want to move to B.C. They generally fall in Acajack's last category, although some try and combine it with school. Or they fit into a category of people who think themselves modern day hippies and think Ontario is too fast-paced / uptight. Most are back after school is finished.

Still I know far more people who have done the opposite and moved here for work. Similarly, more people who have moved from Ontario to Alberta simply for work.

[MonkeyRonin]

I could imagine BC being the biggest beneficiary of interprovincial retirement migration, but still, for reasons of cost and climate the Southern US and Caribbean are always going to be the most popular destinations for Canadian retirees.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by rousseau

That first one: really? Kids in their teens or early twenties in Ontario or Quebec wanting to go to BC for school or jobs due to the cold here?

.

Well, it might not be as common as the other two, but yes, I certainly heard people say that in my late teens and 20s. When I was living in Ontario.

A few of them acted upon it. Some came back, and judging from my Facebook, some of them didn't.

The numbers are relatively small, but still higher than the number of people who've packed up and retired out there (in the absence of relatives already in BC or family roots there), which is ZERO.

[Blader]

Well Lio, here's an eyopener
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/pi...across-canada-in-covered-wagon-1.3086662