Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

It is different here for several reasons:

• US builds more commercial building on spec, no so-much in Canada
• sub-prime mortgages are not available in Canada, Canadians have more invested in their homes
• hardest hit regions in the US were places like Florida, Arizona, etc. Basically dominated by mass-migration for retirement and vacation home properties
• Certain at risk communities (e.g. Detroit) had neighborhoods that once they declined, spiralled into becoming a complete ghost town (less likely in Canada).

In the 2008 recession commercial construction was affected much less than residential:

Overall construction industry employment is down -29% with the residential sector down -42%, nonresidential (commercial building) down -23% and the non-building publically financed infrastructure/heavy construction/civil engineering sector down -18%. - See more at: http://jobenomicsblog.com/construction-industry-forecast/#sthash.kvMmKIjR.dpuf

Subprime mortgage have seen explosive growth in Canada
http://business.financialpost.com/person...rockets-to-record-as-banks-tighten-reins

How is mass migration to Florida and Arizona any worse than mass Chinese migration to Vancouver and Toronto? No doubt it all seems solid until the next Tiananmen Square or authoritarian crackdown on capital flows.

[st7860]

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/jufa/jufa_018.cfm
"Sub-prime mortgages are those that are made to riskier borrowers, such as those with a weaker credit history or a lack of documentation on income or assets (e.g., self-employed). In the U.S., before the recent housing crisis, the sub-prime market became quite large, peaking at 23.5 per cent of mortgage originations in 2006.1 Many factors contributed to this, including the prevalent mortgage funding model in the U.S., where mortgages were originated by third party lenders to be quickly packaged and sold to investors. The lenders, thus, often had limited incentives to apply prudent underwriting, while the investors often did not understand the associated risk.

In Canada, the sub-prime market did not take hold to the extent that it did in the U.S.; estimates place it at less than 5 per cent of the Canadian market at its peak. Most mortgages in Canada are originated and retained by institutions whose goal is to maintain a long-term, broad relationship with their customers, also offering credit cards, car loans and investments. Lenders thus have a financial interest in ensuring that borrowers do not take on unmanageable debt, which reinforces their motivation to prudently underwrite mortgages"

[VivaPhysicality]

Retirees in BC are mostly from Alberta and Saskatchewan, not so much Ontario obviously.

But there are some valid reasons to retire in BC aside from the weather. Nature is a big one. Some people prefer the idea of retiring among mountains, rainforest, ocean, etc. rather than living in boring, flat suburbia, and for some, it's a worthy sacrifice to endure some cool, rainy weather in the winter. And if you can afford a tropical vacation every winter, that makes it easier too.

And of course the other appealing thing about BC is being able to live in one place in Canada year round.

It really just depends. If you enjoy your non-BC province and you just want to get away during the winters, retiring in BC doesn't make sense. Just do the snowbird thing.

But if you want to leave it all behind and live somewhere in Canada year-round with amazing natural beauty, and you're willing to settle for weather that's better but still not perfect, BC is an excellent choice.

[dleung]

^^It certainly explains part of the reason why there is so much visible wealth in BC despite "low wages", and why BC has the highest median age after the Maritimes.

Originally Posted by lio45

It's the least undesirable location for Canadians who are, for some reason, forced to permanently relocate away from their home province and kids and grandkids and friends. I'll grant you that...

LOL

[sunsetmountainland]

Honestly, I respect Leo45, I think he is a really nice person. But that sentence almost made me fall on the floor. I did not understand if he hated where he lived or he was upset that Quebec was not located on the west coast of Canada?

I was certainly baffled the first time I read his reply!

[Metro-One]

lio45 talking shit about BC and twisting stats, is anyone really surprised?

And for a good joke, you should see his pie in the sky denial about salt water intrusion and rising sea levels in Florida a couple months ago in a different thread.

We get it, Florida is the be all and end all, next is Quebec, and BC is dead last in the world. Congratulations, you won the interent.

[sunsetmountainland]

I am not going to go to see a different thread to get an opinion on leo45. I think he is a nice guy. However he is very insecure and indifferent to facts. His idea of forcing his opinions can of course be annoying but with everyone with a disability it does not mean he is not a nice person. Just a little delusional. Nothing that serious though.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I am not going to go to see a different thread to get an opinion on leo45. I think he is a nice guy. However he is very insecure and indifferent to facts. His idea of forcing his opinions can of course be annoying but with everyone with a disability it does not mean he is not a nice person. Just a little delusional. Nothing that serious though.

How about giving the childish insults and bickering about people in the third person a rest? lio45 is an intelligent and interesting poster whose opinions are actually worth reading.

Either respond to the substance of the discussion, or shut the fuck up, please.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

honestly, i respect leo45, i think he is a really nice person. But that sentence almost made me fall on the floor. I did not understand if he hated where he lived or he was upset that quebec was not located on the west coast of canada?

I was certainly baffled the first time i read his reply!

+1

[st7860]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I am not going to go to see a different thread to get an opinion on leo45. I think he is a nice guy. However he is very insecure and indifferent to facts. His idea of forcing his opinions can of course be annoying but with everyone with a disability it does not mean he is not a nice person. Just a little delusional. Nothing that serious though.

Exactly. Also I don't go around alleging that the Canadian market is the same as <random country here>.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by rousseau

How about giving the childish insults and bickering about people in the third person a rest? lio45 is an intelligent and interesting poster whose opinions are actually worth reading.

Either respond to the substance of the discussion, or shut the fuck up, please.

I am only dealing with facts Rousseau. If you are able to discredit what I have proven or lio45 has proven to be true then be my quest. I do not have to lie or swear to get my point. I am not insecure to insults. I do not support bigotry like many who dis Vancouver. I support facts as well as proven facts.

Many including myself have proven what I have said about Lio45 is true. Based on my facts provided. I was responding to the substance of the discussion about lio45 and British Columbia is the most desirable location for Canadians to relocate!

http://www.bmo.com/pdf/mf/prospectus...0Report_En.pdf

[st7860]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

lio45 talking shit about BC and twisting stats, is anyone really surprised?

And for a good joke, you should see his pie in the sky denial about salt water intrusion and rising sea levels in Florida a couple months ago in a different thread.

We get it, Florida is the be all and end all, next is Quebec, and BC is dead last in the world. Congratulations, you won the interent.

lol sunset + i clicked post for the same link at the same time!! - edit

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by st7860

lol sunset + i clicked post for the same link at the same time!! - edit

Timing is everything st7860. So are facts and truths!

[Xelebes]

Everyone, lay off the personal attacks.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by lio45

That does seem obvious to us, but from a BC-centric point of view, apparently it's not.

Right, because we have so many Ontario transplant neighbours that it's ludicrous to suggest it's not happening. I think I know more people that have moved from the east than were born in BC.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

Honestly, I respect Leo45, I think he is a really nice person. But that sentence almost made me fall on the floor.

I'll try to make it as easy as possible for you to understand. Canada is a cold country.

Retirees usually dislike the following characteristics: cold, rainy
Retirees usually like the following characteristics: sunny, warm, dry

Also, similarly, I'd stand by the following statement any time: <best city to retire in the entire country of Finland> is the least undesirable place in Finland for a retiree to relocate to.

That's not to say Finland isn't a nice place, just that it's obviously not a very attractive place to go and retire to for typical retirees.

[lio45]

FYI, I didn't invent all this:

(Nor are those people all me under a different username)

Originally Posted by TownGuy

I've never heard of any retiree in Ontario moving, or wanting to move, to BC. I mean I'm sure some do but its not a "thing". The Florida snowbird...that's definitely a thing.

Originally Posted by someone123

It makes very little sense as a retirement destination. It's better to be near friends and family and in the scheme of things the difference in climate is small.

Our average high here from December-February is about +7 and you get 210 hours of sunshine. Back in Halifax the average is +2 and you get 340 hours of sunshine. In Cancun it is about +29 and basically sunny all the time.

Originally Posted by Acajack

But I don't know any retirees from the eastern half of Canada who, after living their entire working lives in this part of the country, raised their kids here, made friends here, decided to retire in BC. Zero.

Originally Posted by north 42

Same here, never heard of anyone retiring to BC from Ontario, most go to florida. BC is not really on the radar of most Ontarian's retirement plans.

[Berklon]

Mark me as another one who's never heard of Vancouver being a place to retire for people out east.

If they're going to move a great distance to retire somewhere, it's going to be where the weather is warm 365 days a year... and that's usually somewhere in Florida. They're called snowbirds down there after all. Arizona is gaining more interest as a place to retire to as well. BC? No - that's very rare. The weather there isn't that much of an improvement overall to make it worth it.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by lio45

I'll try to make it as easy as possible for you to understand. Canada is a cold country.

I'll try to make it as easy as possible for you to understand. Canada is a warm country in many areas such as Toronto, Vancouver, and the interior of BC

[st7860]

Originally Posted by Berklon

Mark me as another one who's never heard of Vancouver being a place to retire for people out east.

If they're going to move a great distance to retire somewhere, it's going to be where the weather is warm 365 days a year... and that's usually somewhere in Florida. They're called snowbirds down there after all. Arizona is gaining more interest as a place to retire to as well. BC? No - that's very rare. The weather there isn't that much of an improvement overall to make it worth it.

Those people going to Florida will soon learn that they can't do it too often anymore due to new border crossing tracking(both directions)