Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

If I may be a little rude to some... the way I see it, you're preaching to a mix of choir and stones.





I have a few examples within my circles of family/friends of people who "fled" the West Coast because the wages-to-property-prices ratios were just horrible...

I think I said it on this board already but not too long ago (around last fall, IIRC) one of my close friends came back to Montreal when his postdoc came up for renewal in California. By his own admission, he would've liked to stay there, but financially, it made zero sense. He's now making about as much but in Montreal, where the same money goes really further.

Apparently you're supposed to accept to have a hard time making ends meet and/or live in a crappy, tiny apartment as the trade-off for... a generally nicer climate, the Pacific and some mountains nearby...?

Sorry, I'll pass. You guys are lucky that many still accept this -- I don't expect it to last forever. Things don't tend to stay undervalued or overvalued forever.

It is not easy I understand some cannot make ends meet. Life can be tough but like st 7860 said money is not everything!

That is why there are many great places in British Columbia to retire not just Vancouver or Victoria.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-inv...ife-in-british-columbia/article16750417/

http://www.retirementinvestigator.com/where-to-retire-in-british-columbia.html

http://www.retirewow.com/best-places-to-retire-in-canada-vernon-british-columbia/

http://www.comfortlife.ca/retirement-communities/bc-retirement-homes

http://www.ehow.com/info_8243663_places-retire-british-columbia.html

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

That is why there are many great places in British Columbia to retire not just Vancouver or Victoria.

Retiring there? Nah, it's both too far away AND too cold to make sense.

Nearly all retirees I know who went away chose Florida instead. And it's probably cheaper than even BC-outside-Van-or-Vic.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

Retiring there? Nah, it's both too far away AND too cold to make sense.

Nearly all retirees I know who went away chose Florida instead. And it's probably cheaper than even BC-outside-Van-or-Vic.

Yeah so I would hate Florida as well as the heat! I prefer the mild winters and summers of British Columbia. So it would be a personal choice and many will retire in B.C. as well as some I suppose to Florida.

[st7860]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

Yeah so I would hate Florida as well as the heat! I prefer the mild winters and summers of British Columbia. So it would be a personal choice and many will retire in B.C. as well as some I suppose to Florida.

Saltspring Island is popular among retirees I heard, and its still relatively close to Vancouver by ferry

[blueandgoldguy]

Originally Posted by lio45

Retiring there? Nah, it's both too far away AND too cold to make sense.

Nearly all retirees I know who went away chose Florida instead. And it's probably cheaper than even BC-outside-Van-or-Vic.

Florida is really only ideal if you keep a home in a northerly location during the oppressively hot spring, summer and falls in Florida. There are six to seven months of the year in which the humidity makes outdoor activities monstly unbearable. You are exchanging one extreme for another.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

Florida is really only ideal if you keep a home in a northerly location during the oppressively hot spring, summer and falls in Florida. There are six to seven months of the year in which the humidity makes outdoor activities monstly unbearable. You are exchanging one extreme for another.

Most retirees spend 6 months there, 6 months here. Plenty of good reasons for that: summer here is a very fine season, it enables them to keep their health insurance cards, and their kids and grandkids are mostly here, and so are most of their relatives and friends. Not to mention that it's home, and it's nice to be home once in a while.

I did the Vancouver drive once... it's about twice as far as FL. Maybe if you don't have any family or friends back home that you care about, and don't mind cold winters, it can be an okay year-round retirement destination for someone who's from out East, but if you're going to do the trip twice a year to spend part of the year home, it's very far away for little benefit in return.

I don't think BC can rely on only being a retiree magnet. That isn't likely to work for them. (Not that that's their plan... but it was brought up, so I'm addressing it.)

[Pinion]

Vancouver and Van Island already are giant retiree magnets for the whole country, but we've had this argument before.

[sunsetmountainland]

With regards to retirement in Canada here is a report with of course facts. That suggests the destination for many,which has been the case for decades as Pinion stated is British Columbia. It also states the highest percentage to move to the states is from Quebec. Although 85 percent of Canadians plan to retire in Canada.

http://www.bmo.com/pdf/mf/prospectus/en/BMO_Retirement_Institute%20Report_En.pdf

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

With regards to retirement in Canada here is a report with of course facts. That suggests the destination for many,which has been the case for decades as Pinion stated is British Columbia.

http://www.bmo.com/pdf/mf/prospectus/en/BMO_Retirement_Institute%20Report_En.pdf

80%+ in Ontario want to keep their primary residence in Ontario; 80%+ in Quebec want to keep their primary residence in Quebec; only about ~5% plan on retiring to BC; about ~12% plan on retiring to another province.

I sure wouldn't call that a retiree magnet...

Also, reading that report, I am pretty sure that with their methodology, all the retirees spending <6 months in FL would technically count as having remained in their home province.

When you've paid taxes in Canada for all your working life, it doesn't really make much sense to give up the health insurance (at the point in your life when you're finally about to start to need it) in exchange for the privilege of spending your summers in the unbearable heat and humidity of Florida away from your kids, grandkids, and friends.

Of all the retirees I've known over my life who spend their winters in Florida, I don't think I know a single one who doesn't come back home for the summer.

So, all of those wouldn't count as having relocated for retirement, and I'm therefore very unsurprised at the fact that an overwhelming number of Ontarians and Québécois don't relocate for retirement.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Pinion

are giant retiree magnets for the whole country

sunsetmountainland's link ("facts"...) certainly doesn't support that conclusion.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

80%+ in Ontario want to keep a primary residence in Ontario; 80%+ in Quebec want to keep a primary residence in Quebec; only about ~5% plan on retiring to BC; about ~12% plan on retiring to another province.

I sure wouldn't call that a retiree magnet...

Also, reading that report, I am pretty sure that with their methodology, all the retirees spending <6 months in FL would technically count as having remained in their home province.

When you've paid taxes in Canada for all your working life, it doesn't really make much sense to give up the health insurance (at the point in your life when you're finally about to start to need it) in exchange for the privilege of spending summer in the unbearable heat and humidity of Florida away from your kids, grandkids, and friends.

Of all the retirees I've known over my life who spend their winters in Florida, I don't think I know a single one who doesn't come back home for the summer.

So, all of those don't count as having relocated for retirement, and I'm therefore very unsurprised at the fact that an overwhelming number of Ontarians and Québécois don't relocate for retirement.

It does prove that for Canada, British Columbia is the most desirable location for Canadians to relocate.You can put your own spin on what you would like to think. I prefer to look at the facts.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

It does prove that for Canada, British Columbia is the most desirable location for Canadians to relocate.You can put your own spin on what you would like to think. I prefer to look at the facts.

It proves that for Canada, the most desirable location to retire is, by an absolutely crushing margin, home.

Especially when it comes to spending your summers.

For winters, I guarantee that the most desirable location in the East is somewhere under the sun. That's where basically everyone who doesn't want to spend their winters here ends up going. Mostly FL. In the Prairies it's likely mostly AZ, just guessing there though.

Only a tiny ~5% in QC/ON would consider retiring to BC... and that's at the planning stage; I'm pretty sure that a lot less than 5% end up actually moving to BC after having considered the possibility more seriously.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

It proves that for Canada, the most desirable location to retire is, by an absolutely crushing margin, home.

Especially when it comes to spending your summers.

For winters, I guarantee that the most desirable location in the East is somewhere under the sun. That's where basically everyone who doesn't want to spend their winters here ends up going. Mostly FL. In the Prairies it's likely mostly AZ, just guessing there though.

Only a tiny ~5% in QC/ON would consider retiring to BC... and that's at the planning stage; I'm pretty sure that a lot less than 5% end up actually moving to BC after having considered the possibility more seriously.

Like I mentioned before Lio. I am sorry but I will have to repeat myself.

British Columbia is the most desirable location for Canadians to relocate!

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

Like I mentioned before Lio. I am sorry but I will have to repeat myself.

British Columbia is the most desirable location for Canadians to relocate!

It's the least undesirable location for Canadians who are, for some reason, forced to permanently relocate away from their home province and kids and grandkids and friends. I'll grant you that.

I'm sure the number of snowbirds totally dwarfs the number of (Eastern) Canadians who permanently relocate to BC for retirement. If you keep arguing I might even have to find time to dig up data, even though it's hard because they don't all show.

As a matter of fact, I spent most of the winter in Florida, but I don't think that data appears at any place where the writers of that BMO reports could have accessed it. (I'm not even retired.) Officially, my residence is, and remains, Quebec.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

I'm sure the number of snowbirds totally dwarfs the number of (Eastern) Canadians who permanently relocate to BC for retirement. If you keep arguing I might even have to find time to dig up data, even though it's hard because they don't all show.

As a matter of fact, I spent most of the winter in Florida, but I don't think that data appears at any place where the writers of that BMO reports could have accessed it. (I'm not even retired.) Officially, my residence is, and remains, Quebec.

I absolutely loved your first sentence" It's the least undesirable location for Canadians who are, for some reason, forced to permanently relocate away from their home province and kids and grandkids and friends. I'll grant you that."

I am very sorry to hear that Canada is very undesirable to you! Perhaps it is because you live in Quebec? Maybe you should move to B.C.

Also it would be very kind of you if you were able to get facts to support your arguments (dig up data). I am certain myself as well as other readers would appreciate this.

[TownGuy]

I've never heard of any retiree in Ontario moving, or wanting to move, to BC. I mean I'm sure some do but its not a "thing". The Florida snowbird...that's definitely a thing.

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If your intent was to paint a rosy picture of this program you failed miserably. All you did was reinforce the phony and ephemeral nature of the business created to cater to the immigrant investor program. Think about it: these businesses exist solely to gain a Canadian passport. They don't have to turn a profit. Indeed you admit it yourself, the owner goes back to China to run their real business. In the meantime, what about the local businesses that now have to compete and earn a living with someone who doesn't care if they make a profit? There are hundreds of these zombie businesses out there which exist solely as passport getters, they get sold from one immigrant investor to the next, soldiering on merely to gain Canadian citizenship.

My intent is not to paid either a rosy or negative picture of the program. The program is not perfect, however what it does do is bring money (from outside the country) into Canadian small business and create local jobs. These will employ Canadians.

Many "local" Canadian companies are going to have deep ties with China (a country that in a decade or two has the potential to become more dominant than the US.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I am very sorry to hear that Canada is very undesirable to you! Perhaps it is because you live in Quebec? Maybe you should move to B.C.

I like BC, but I think it's expensive for what you get. I also found it cold and rainy while I was there.

Most of my friends and family are in Quebec. If I retired tomorrow, I sure wouldn't pay anywhere near current Vancouver prices to permanently relocate to an expensive, cold, rainy place many thousands of kilometers away. Wouldn't be worth it at all.

At best, I might entertain the idea (you guys contributed to putting it in my head, to be frank... before, I'd have said no way) of buying a Vancouver SFH to sell it to someone else in a couple years... but even then, while holding it I'd feel that I'm at the mercy of any regulation change aimed at tackling the problem of expensive housing, and that worries me. The last thing you want is the government acting to put spokes in the wheel of Chinese investors while you're holding, and there's no guarantee it won't happen. A raise in interest rates would also hurt values, though that applies generally to property everywhere.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by TownGuy

I've never heard of any retiree in Ontario moving, or wanting to move, to BC. I mean I'm sure some do but its not a "thing". The Florida snowbird...that's definitely a thing.

That does seem obvious to us, but from a BC-centric point of view, apparently it's not.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lio45

I have a few examples within my circles of family/friends of people who "fled" the West Coast because the wages-to-property-prices ratios were just horrible...

I think I said it on this board already but not too long ago (around last fall, IIRC) one of my close friends came back to Montreal when his postdoc came up for renewal in California. By his own admission, he would've liked to stay there, but financially, it made zero sense. He's now making about as much but in Montreal, where the same money goes really further.

If it were just an abstract quality of life issue for me I would also probably move to Montreal. I like the city itself more, the job prospects are pretty comparable, if not slightly better in my industry, and winter trips are not that expensive. I stay here mostly because of my friends and personal connections.

That's what's cruel about the housing market. If you put down roots here there's a big cost to moving. Many people face a choice between leaving behind their social ties and coping with a second-class standard of living. I don't think it's a very fair situation, and for all the excuses we see on here it is nevertheless obviously highly unusual, even on a global scale.