Quote:
Originally Posted by cyeg66
So, er, uh, umm, let me state the obvious:
It appears those CofC meetings at the start of the month yielded jack squat so far. Oh wait, I think I hear something.
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<crickets>
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<more crickets>
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Correct, it was not the big announcement I had been anticipating. But things are far from chirping crickets.
At the CofC meeting I got an update from transport minister. Government has done their job by providing thie regulatory framework and negotiation support to Air Canada. It is now up to Air Canada and Air China to conclude joint venture agreement. Finally, govt will get out of the way of private transactions.
The Air Canada annual report mentioned that AC and CA joint venture must get competition tribunal approval. My initial thought was the competition work would be conducted in the open through hearings and public rulings. However i am now hearing this work will be conducted incamera sessions and we won't hear anything until successful conclusion. This also goes with the Ministers comments about getting govt out of the way of business.
I have also taken a deep dive on the AC fleet plan, comparing Dec 31/2015 fleet to the projections from 2012 and 2013. The results are most revealing. I also compare Dec 2016 fleet pan projects for 2013 and 2014. Overall 2015 fleet changes for AC will primarily be at the narrowbody stage, while 2016 is the year of the widebody changes. All told the fleet plan chang for the next 24 months is very dramtic.
Comparing dec 2015 fleet to 2012 projects reveals the following:
- E90 fleet drops by 13 aircraft compare to original drop of 20. There are 7 more E90s in the fleet than original plan.
- the mainline 319 fleet grows by 10 aircraft as no more 319s will be transferred to rouge. Consequently the rouge 319 fleet drops by 10 aircraft, replaced by introduction of 5 new 321s that have never existed in the AC fleet.
- 320 fleet grow by 2 aircraft to replace flying previously done by e90.
- mainline 321 fleet grows by 3 aircraft in 2015 and 1 additional aircraft in 2016. This also replaces flying previously done by E90. Additionally Nd mentioned before, the rouge fleet gets 2 321s in 2015 and 3 321s in 2016. The rouge 321 will likely be deployed on YYZ to Florida and are rumoured to come with 12 domestic business class seats to upgrade premium rouge to acceptable standard.
- Dreamliner fleet grows by 1 less airframe in 2015 than planned due to delivery delays at Boeing. AC will receive the last 2 788 aircraft in early 2015 as all remaining order aircraft are converted to 789. The 789 fleet for 2015 (3 aircraft) will be used for growth routes to DXB and DEL.
- although never officially announced and confirmed, the 333 fleet was to have exited AC on delivery of the first 8 789s. 333 fleet will now remain with AC for the Longterm.
- 5 763 aircraft the were to be removed from the fleet through expiration of their lease will now remain with mainline as domestic widebody operations. The intercontinental business cabins will remain and new premium business class service will launch on YYZ-YYC/YVR. Additionally the rouge 763 fleet will grow by an additional 2 aircraft in 2015 that come from outside lessors ( ie not mainline conversions). In 2016 an additional 2 763s join the fleet from lessors. Finally the mainline to rouge conversion will continue.
Additional 2016 changes:
- 2016 has the introduction of 2 new 77W aircraft that will have smaller business class cabin, premium economy cabin and high density configuration for economy. Also all 77w and 77L will have new business class cabins.
-2016 the 333 fleet will have new premium economy cabin.
-afore mentioned growth of additional 2 rouge 763 airplanes new to AC fleet.
- six 789 aircraft arrive for growth in 2016. Previously they were to replace 333 and 763 aircraft out of mainline.
-I have also heard (unconfirmed 2nd hand info) the AC board of directors has given management permission to lease up to an additional 10 321/320 from 2016 provided the leases are commercially viable terms. 321 is preferred. It they will take 320.
What does all this mean for YYC?
- there is now more than enough widebody airplanes to start YYC-PEK in early 2016.
- expect more domestic widebody deployments onto YYC-YYZ.
- conversion to the boring land of the 737 will be held off until at least 2 more years as AC brings additional Airbus narrowbody lift.
- the addition of rouge 321 could provide aircraft for more rouge 319 flying out of YYC.
- Rouge 319 flying will soon have domestic business class cabins.
- AC has the flexibility to match WS 763 flying tail for tail with new rouge 763s