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Originally Posted by ssiguy
I think the tax will fail and I'm starting to think it should.
When the new Pattula is opened and it's toll will be ATLEAST as much as the PM, that will mean that drivers from Surrey who once drove across the bridge free are going to be paying $1800/year in tolls. Imagine if everyone in Vancouver was told their insurance rates were about to double or more, how many would be on board the transit tx train then?
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The new Pattullo will be tolled whether or not the plebiscite passes.
But what a yes vote means is there will be options for people living in Surrey, North Delta, and Langley such that they won't need to pay the tolls. They'll have the option to use improved transit to get across the Fraser. I'm not just talking about LRT, I'm talking about improved bus service and improved SkyTrain service. Both of those can be implemented quickly and early in the 10-year plan.
Basically, if you look at the Pattullo the choices are this: vote no and you'll get a new Pattullo initially paid for by property taxes, and it will be tolled. There will probably be increased volume over the Pattullo because commuters have fewer transit-oriented options. Vote yes and you'll get a new Pattullo initially paid for by the 0.5% increase, and it will be tolled. Commuters will have a choice between driving and having improved transit options, so the volume over the new Pattullo will not grow as fast as for the 'no' option.
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Both are financially comfortably and neither take transit or even cross the bridges very often but both see the need for better transit but feel that they shouldn't be especially penalized because they live on another side of a river.
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There's a trade-off between living north of the Fraser and living south of the Fraser. One gets you higher property values, higher property taxes, better transit service, and no tolls. The other gets you lower property values, lower property taxes, worse transit service, and tolls. When people move south of the Fraser, they're making that decision. They've chosen larger yards in exchange for longer and more expensive commutes.
That said, one can easily see the increased density along the SkyTrain corridor. Should Surrey and Langley get the LRT, you can reasonably assume that you'll see the same sort of growth. This doesn't just mean residential, it also means commercial growth, which means there'll be more jobs and more opportunities for people living south of the Fraser to be able to work south of the Fraser. Not having the LRT or improved transit south of the Fraser makes that a little tougher to accomplish.