Calgary International Airport II

AC852/853 will first fly on Saturday May 2 and on Mondays and Saturdays thereafter until June when it flies 4 weekly Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday.

Just to rank YYC's new LHR service - YVR's single flight is still more seats because it's a sardine can: 3,206 weekly seats on a daily 77W. IIRC when we last had 852, YVR-LHR was 14x 333 so they've gone down overall. I see YUL is also a single 77W but I dunno if that's a sardine or not. If it isn't, that makes us third behind YVR and YYZ. Whatever.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Acey

AC852/853 will first fly on Saturday May 2 and on Mondays and Saturdays thereafter until June when it flies 4 weekly Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday.

Just to rank YYC's new LHR service - YVR's single flight is still more seats because it's a sardine can: 3,206 weekly seats on a daily 77W. IIRC when we last had 852, YVR-LHR was 14x 333 so they've gone down overall. I see YUL is also a single 77W but I dunno if that's a sardine or not. If it isn't, that makes us third behind YVR and YYZ. Whatever.

Back in 2008, the last time YVR was double daily, it was a daily 333 and a daily 763.

Perhaps YYC-LHR may see the 788 then eventually as well.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

I wouldn't go into the YEG airport thread for a while. Its going to ugly.

YEG-LHR is where 852/853 is getting the aircraft and LHR slots from.

Please tell me this is not the big news you were talking about

Originally Posted by Cage

I wouldn't go into the YEG airport thread for a while. Its going to ugly.

YEG-LHR is where 852/853 is getting the aircraft and LHR slots from.

The sequence of events, with the 333 downgauge being shown so many months prior, somewhat suggests they've been planning this for a while. Maybe watching advanced bookings on 898/899 and giving it as long as possible.

Here's the proof that AC852 is stealing YEG's slot if anyone has reason not to believe it... compare the bolded times to the sked above:

AC898 YEG 2010 1150+1 LHR 763
AC899 LHR 1615 1815 YEG 763

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Perhaps YYC-LHR may see the 788 then eventually as well.

Fingers crossed...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Acey

The sequence of events, with the 333 downgauge being shown so many months prior, somewhat suggests they've been planning this for a while. Maybe watching advanced bookings on 898/899 and giving it as long as possible.

Here's the proof that AC852 is stealing YEG's slot if anyone has reason not to believe it... compare the bolded times to the sked above:

AC898 YEG 2010 1150+1 LHR 763
AC899 LHR 1615 1815 YEG 763



Fingers crossed...

Definitely in the scheds now.

Now we just need to do something about the downgauge on FRA. Perhaps that market has been more right-sized.

Fascinating move though. Does this have anything to do with also trying to force BA out... Does AC know that something's up with BA in Alberta... Or is there?

It's only a 10% bump in seats versus last summer so I mean... wouldn't BA have to have been hanging on only by the thinnest of threads for this bump to be the final straw? Is AC being scared of KLM in YEG possibly a factor?

I just feel like if AC wanted to go hard at BA they'd have kept the 77W and then brought in a 763 on top of that, or 850 would fly alone as a sardine can. Or maybe somebody at AC did want to do that but got one-upped cause they need the big birds out of YYZ.

Time will tell...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Acey

It's only a 10% bump in seats versus last summer so I mean... wouldn't BA have to have been hanging on only by the thinnest of threads for this bump to be the final straw? Is AC being scared of KLM in YEG possibly a factor?

I don't think scared is the right term. If Icelandair and KLM have poached enough pax on a relatively small market (YEG-Europe) then it only makes sense if the forecastss indicate this route will struggle even in the summer. There are only so many bums to put in those seats and too many seats... The writing is on the wall. AC can make better $$$ by allocating their resources elsewhere where they will have a better chance of filling those seats and hopefully make a few $$$ doing so.

Transat pulled its weekly YEG-LGW too. Where did that frequency go? YVR. So Transat feels they will have a better chance of filling that plane out of YVR even if that means YVR-LGW increases to 6 weekly... And again filling it plus making $$$.

As for BA, I was very hopeful and just ignored the constant flipping back and forth of the 787 to the 763. But it does appear the signs aren't that great.

And yeah, AC has bigger fish to fry than a BA daily 763 from YYC-LHR anyway.... but perhaps this is what AC feels they need to do. A move that may have more than one purpose

Good call. And yeah I guess if AC sees that BA is dying out on their own, they wouldn't need that extra metal anyway.

[Cage]

In other YYC transport news; Lisa Raitt, Transport Minister is giving a speech to Calgary Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday lunch. I a m going as member of the Chamber. Its getting close to Chinese new year and the timing of the lunch coincides with the expected timing for launch of YYC-PEK. I am hoping that Raitt has more to say about aviation portfolio and less about transportation of grain to the West coast.

Keeping my fingers crossed the good news on YYC front will continue.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

In other YYC transport news; Lisa Raitt, Transport Minister is giving a speech to Calgary Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday lunch. I a m going as member of the Chamber. Its getting close to Chinese new year and the timing of the lunch coincides with the expected timing for launch of YYC-PEK. I am hoping that Raitt has more to say about aviation portfolio and less about transportation of grain to the West coast.

Keeping my fingers crossed the good news on YYC front will continue.

That's more like it! Seems like the planets are aligning quite nicely for YYC International. Didn't want to have to rely on Sunwing boosting our numbers!

Would be an interesting place to announce a new route... If so I would expect representatives from AC (or other appropriate carrier) and YYC in attendance!

Fingers crossed too... I'm upside down compared to you guys so maybe I need to cross my toes.

Well we'll all be glued to our mobile devices come Tuesday, of that I'm sure. Still kinda curious on the timings so I guess that's the only thing left to be determined.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Acey

Well we'll all be glued to our mobile devices come Tuesday, of that I'm sure. Still kinda curious on the timings so I guess that's the only thing left to be determined.

Yup Wednesday for me. Enjoy the snow boys! Off to the pub.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

That's more like it! Seems like the planets are aligning quite nicely for YYC International. Didn't want to have to rely on Sunwing boosting our numbers!

Would be an interesting place to announce a new route... If so I would expect representatives from AC (or other appropriate carrier) and YYC in attendance!

Fingers crossed too... I'm upside down compared to you guys so maybe I need to cross my toes.

CAA will definitely be in attendance as they are technically a subsidiary of Calgary Chamber (over Half the CAA directors are Chamber appointees). They usually take atleast 3 tables or 24 people.

One possibility is that AC announces the morning and its center stage for Raitt at lunch. However I would settle for a significant portion of Raitt's speech to include need for liberalized international services and or more services to China.

If Raitt mentions China and AC announces on Tuesday, I expect Atkinson (CAA CEO) and Poirier (Marketting and route development) to start Sabering Champagne.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCp9-tEHa8U

[Spring2008]

A china flight would mean much more for business, tourism, migration etc than our Tokyo flight. Hope this is a start to many more Asia flights as anybody who follows world economics knows that's where all the momentum's been.

[Johnny Aussie]

So after this latest development YYC-Europe increases to a nice even 42 flights per week (equivalent of 6 daily) up from 39 last summer. Not bad at all.
Overall capacity is getting closer to full recovery after TS cancelled FRA and AC pulled the big birds off LHR and FRA.

AC - LHR 11
AC - FRA 7
KL - AMS 7
BA - LHR 7
TS - LGW 3
TS - MAN/GLA 2
TS - AMS 1
TS - CDG 1
DE - FRA 3

YEG will still have the same number of flights per week to Europe as last summer at 13 per week (FI to KEF 6, KL to AMS 4, AC to LHR 3). Last summer they also had 1 weekly flight to LGW on TS, FI was only 5pw and AC to LHR was of course daily. Overall capacity from YEG to Europe will also be slightly lower due to KLM on larger a/c than AC to LHR, but losing TS to LGW tips capacity change to the negative... but it's not that bad.

Thanks for those numbers, and for what it's worth...

Air Canada weekly seats to Europe S14: 4,886
Air Canada weekly seats to Europe S15: 4,550

LHR has gone up in seats but the FRA downgauge is still resulting in a net loss vs S14, but not as bad as it was looking before yesterday (3,710 seats on 14x 333)

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Acey

Thanks for those numbers, and for what it's worth...

Air Canada weekly seats to Europe S14: 4,886
Air Canada weekly seats to Europe S15: 4,550

LHR has gone up in seats but the FRA downgauge is still resulting in a net loss vs S14, but not as bad as it was looking before yesterday (3,710 seats on 14x 333)

Yup... And go Sunwing for helping to boost total international seats. And KLM will have one more 777pw replacing a 333. Remember that press release?!

I haven't even looked at Westjet's summer sched yet although not sure if it's even finalised yet anyway. Maybe some more sun flying in there somewhere.

[LO 044]

Originally Posted by Cage

I wouldn't go into the YEG airport thread for a while. Its going to ugly.

YEG-LHR is where 852/853 is getting the aircraft and LHR slots from.

Cage you give AC too much credit. Most on the YEG thread will gladly take KL and FI over AC. AC gave YEG the non-stop to LHR yes but prices, flight schedules and connection times were poor at best. Hell i had to use LH's website to book a flight on the YEG-LHR flight to make it work to mainland Europe. The YEG-LHR flight was probably simply inserted to keep BA out as many insiders mentioned. Looks like AC could not keep KL and FI out though. One step forward two steps back.

[Johnny Aussie]

To put the two markets in perspective.

Figures based on the Gov't of Alberta's own research. Yes this is from 2012 but it does paint a clear picture. YYC-UK is larger than all of YEG-Europe combined. Flame me if you want... But this is the reality.

YYC compared to YEG

VISITORS
UK 80,500 ; 13,500
Germany 33,600 ; 5,500
France 10,000 ; 2,500
Other Western Europe 53,000 ; 10,700

TOTAL O&D
UK 301,122 ; 64,291
Germany 109,338 ; 24,657
France 40,159 ; 15,156
Other Western Europe 207,062 ; 70,194

TOTAL O&D
Total European Union 643,751 ; 177,770 (so about 3.6 times larger).

And just to show how these markets compare to YVR is about 1.2 million

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I don't think scared is the right term. If Icelandair and KLM have poached enough pax on a relatively small market (YEG-Europe) then it only makes sense if the financial models indicate this route will struggle even in the summer. There are only so many bums to put in those seats and too many seats... The writing is on the wall. AC can make better $$$ by allocating their resources elsewhere where they will have a better chance of filling those seats and hopefully make a few $$$ doing so.

The other strategic point to consider is that we are one summer season away from WS 763 hitting the market. If I were AC the strategic response would comprise:
- Mainline 77w, 789, 333 to primary YYZ-Europe markets. Good increase in capacity.
- rouge 763 to secondary yyz-Europe markets, between mainline and rouge plug all holes in YYZ.
- out West focus on yvr and yyc Europe on mainline. Maybe add 2-4 secondary routes to plug remaining holes.
-leave YEG for the taking. An invitation to the number three western Canadian market provides a lot of protection to more important markets like YYZ, yyc, yvr.