Rapid Transit

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by Beedok

I'd say 90% (maybe 95%).

According to the web site threehundredeight.com whose owner is a poll aggregator, Horwath is 98% likely to win her seat.

That makes it one of the very few ultra-secure ridings, but he has a few Eastern Ontario ridings down as 99% and even 100% for the Tories.

[markbarbera]

Well, I guess Howarth has locked herself in as a temporary seat holder for Hamilton Centre. If provincially the NDP do as poorly as I expect, I would not be surprised to see Howarth resign and run for mayor of Hamilton. If they manage to hold their seat count, she may hold on longer and pass on joining the mayoral race, but I do not expct to see her see the term out. There is every indication that this has not been a good campaign for the NDP and she will likely bolt before she is pushed out by the party establishment.

[HillStreetBlues]

We’ve only got two days to wait to see how many seats they manage. How many do you think would be enough for her to get another full term as leader? Can gains be made and the writing still be painted on the wall for her?

I’m asking seriously. It’s hard for me to get into the mindset of a typical NDP member. She’s seems to be a fairly successful leader, would they really take the opinion that they could do better with someone else at this point?

They seem to be polling at a very similar level to the last election. I can’t imagine them doing much worse. And although Howarth might take some flak for voting against a budget with a lot of what she wanted, asking to see a mandate from the people before continuing to support the Liberals is not indefensible.

[Beedok]

Last election they won 17 seats at ~23% support. ThreeHundredEight is expecting them to get 19 seats at ~20% support. (Though losing a few seats that defected.)

That seems lackluster, but not disasterous to me.

The polls have been all over the place though, so who knows. I mean Abacus had them at 28% on Saturday.

[MalcolmTucker]

Thinking like an NDP insider though, they forced the election so shouldn't have they waited (or gone earlier) for a more advantageous result? As a chief strategist, unless they protect incumbents and have growth, she is done.

[drpgq]

Originally Posted by interr0bangr

Horwath is a 100% lock in Hamilton Center right, like, it's not even a race?

I'd say 100%. The Liberal candidate lives in Ancaster.

[SteelTown]

It's a liberal majority government. We'll likely have Glen Murray as Transport Minister again. He said before the election he'll go to council.

[interr0bangr]

I voted Liberal in Hamilton Central even though Horwath was a lock. Now gimme dat LRT Wynne!

[CaptainKirk]

Originally Posted by interr0bangr

I voted Liberal in Hamilton Central even though Horwath was a lock. Now gimme dat LRT Wynne!

Anti-LRT Liberal candidates Mirza and Luksic lost in Hamilton. Is Wynne hearing form Hamilton now?

[matt602]

So we're going to get screwed around some more again and asked what our stand on LRT is again so they can get out of their commitment again for the next 4 years?

[markbarbera]

I would caution against trying to interpret the local results as some sort of endorsement for LRT. This election was not won or lost on any single issue. Rather, it was about the big picture. Voters passed judgement on the overall vision and trustworthiness of each party leader. The judgement passed on Wynne and Hudak was obvious. We now have Premier Mom and Hudak immediately fell on his sword.

For Howarth, the implications are more subtle, but the writing is on the wall for her. Howarth's sharp turn to the right has left the NDP a house divided. Howarth's big 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 was based on the hope that the election will result in her being returned as kingmaker in a minority government situation. While the NDP seat count remained unchanged and their total vote count increased marginally, the party has lost any influence or ownership on public policy now that they are the third party in a majority government. While she held onto her own seat, Howarth's plurality in her own riding was markedly reduced, despite the fact that she had no significant challenger up against her. She would be wise to plan her exit from the NDP on her own terms before she gets pushed out.

As far as LRT in Hamilton goes, not much has changed as a result of this election. The promise of stable government at Queen's Park for four years will allow the current economic constraints to be discussed more openly and honestly. The Wynne government has some time to recalibrate spending priorities without the threat of a snap election interfering with long-term planning. Personally, I believe we are creeping closer to a phased BRT / LRT rapid transit solution for Hamilton. We now have a good four months of municipal campaigning to hash out that debate.

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by markbarbera

[Horwath] would be wise to plan her exit from the NDP on her own terms before she gets pushed out.

This is what you were saying before the vote. I wonder if any result would have convinced you otherwise. Like you say, the total vote count increased. Her seat count remained the same, against odds.

This was her second election. She consistently rated as the most likeable leader, and by all accounts ran a competent campaign. Holding on to those by-election wins when everyone seemed to be focused on the NDP’s relative advantage in by-elections was a testament to that. I have no idea why the NDP would choose to waste time and resources replacing her, when they could rather have a likeable and competent leader who will soon be the most experienced alternative to the current premiere.

I agree with you on LRT. I can’t imagine it being front of mind for more than a few voters. We’ll talk about it yet more from now until October. I can’t envision us electing any kind of a council very supportive, so it might be tough going.

[Innsertnamehere]

The fact the NDP kept their seats is more due to a PC collapse than an NDP success. They lost a lot of their Toronto seats in exchange for a lot of Southern Ontario PC seats where the PC vote collapsed.

[flar]

Horwath gambled and lost. I guess it's up to NDP party whether she survives. I think she will, though I personally don't think she should.

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

The fact the NDP kept their seats is more due to a PC collapse than an NDP success.

This can be said for the Liberals, too, but no one would suggest that their leader step aside because it was more a Tory loss than a Grit win. That they were the preferred alternative in some seats that are traditionally Tory (Kitchener-Waterloo; London West; Niagara Falls) is impressive. It’s unfortunate that they lost a few seats in Toronto at the same time, but it’s not like they were blown out of the water in any of them.

[Beedok]

The Horwath 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 was certainly better than the Marois 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵.

[mattgrande]

The NDP increased their share of the popular vote, maintained their seat count, and lost all their power...

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by mattgrande

The NDP increased their share of the popular vote, maintained their seat count, and lost all their power...

Which might be good longterm. The negotiations needed in a minority situation caused things to take longer, that could have led people to view them as obstructionist. I remember seeing a lot of people complaining about the politicking they were up to. Now that's less of an issue.

[HillStreetBlues]

I think you’re right about that, beedok. Eventually, it would have appeared as though they were wasting everyone’s time.

In this situation, they actually only have a quarter fewer seats than the Tories. Distracted by a leadership race as the Tories will be, the NDP have a good opportunity to act as a credible and effective opposition.

[markbarbera]

CBC Hamitlon has an interesting story on this topic here.

It is accompaniesd with a poll question, "Should Andrea Horwath stay on as leader of the Ontario NDP?" as of 2:00PM, 358 answered "yes" (27.2%), 827 said "no" (62.9%), and 130 (9.9%) are unsure.