The Metro Vancouver Retail Thread

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Vin

Let's not be that dramatic, and I never said we should form our own nation. There are countries where special regions or free trade zones are set up. I'm not necessarily advocating that, but there are many ways to help retail succeed in a city. New ideas could be accepted, but you seem to be dampering everything. If there are developers reading this thread and think that building a new mall would be a good idea, then let it be

What you asked for is directly in contradiction to our federation within Canada and the current free trade agreements we are involved in. We would need to dissolve any agreements are currently in to achieve what you suggested, so while not outright saying it, you suggested a course of action that cannot avoid separatism and the destruction of NAFTA...

The world is a far more complex place than you are trying to paint it.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Vin

In case you haven't realized, the age of the NA property bubble is over.

Do you have any idea what you are talking about? Cap rates are at historic lows. The NA property bubble with regards to retail and commercial buildings has literally never been higher.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Vin

Frankly speaking, the only reason why building owners would spend millions on facelift is because there is a backlog of luxury and semi-luxury retailers waiting to set up shop in prime areas. I can't imagine lux stores opening up in one of those wooden snacks on Robson street; those better be reserved for knick-knack and luggage stores like you mentioned. FYI, with the right venue, retailers would even set up double-deck stores partly as a means to showcase their wares and brand. The only reason why this is not happening in a wide scale here is simply because we don't have a venue like this. But let me state again that I don't propose all lux stores, but a range of retail types to occupy a new mall.

If we're going to speak frankly Vin, you have no idea what you are talking about.

Building owners are right now upgrading their retail offerings to attract lux brands, you see it all down Alberni, at 725 Granville etc... The tenants are taking as much space as they see their sales will demand. If the tenants wanted more the landlords would build more, that's how this business works. It is more or less 100% demand driven. Landlords are always trying to build more, maximize the value of their assets, and to suggest otherwise signals a complete lack of understanding of the entire industry.

This isn't a kevin costner movie. You don't just build a billion dollar mall and hope the brands come.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

harry rosen always looks so old man to me but when you look around in the store they carry a lot of fashionable stuff and more attractive to younger customers but they don't seem to do much showing of that side of their offerings at least from the window displays and the way the stores are set up, they could do more to push some of their offerings to attract people who think of them as a suit/office attire kinda place

Harry Rosen derives an obscene amount of their profits from less than 10% of their entire clientelle.

They are not particularly concerned with attracting passers by in the way a Uniqlo or even upper level retailers like Coach or Michael Kors would. They target a highly discerning customer looking for personal shopping who seeks out their store. Anything else is more of an afterthought.

[Prometheus]

Hey LeftCoaster, what is the word on that plan to create a high-end two-storey retail unit on the northeast corner of Georgia and Howe? It was in its final stages of planning a few years ago but apparently the proposed tenant declined in the end. Is that project dead now?

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Genauso

Big names in Vancouver today:
Oxford (MNP tower), owned by OMERS, Ontario pension fund
Ivanhoe Cambridge (Oakridge mall), owned by Caisse, Quebec pension fund
BCIMC (Canada Post downtown), BC pension fund
Holborn group (Trump tower, Bay parkade), Malaysian Tiah family
Concord Pacific (Yaletown), Chinese Li family

Also while Canadian banks are busy building Toronto, we have the nice addition of Credit Suisse that is funding the Credit Suisse building.

You forgot a few big ones one the commerical side, notably Cadillac Fairview, Bentall, Larco and GWL, as well as some new local entrants such as Westbank over at Telus and Amacon

The big real estate players in Vancouver are the exact same as the big RE players in Calgary, Toronto, Montreal etc... with the exception of a few local players in each market.

And Canadian banks are funding the majority of development in Vancouver too. Swiss RE is building their development as a play for their RE division, so it's not even the same as what is going on in the rest of canada, as Canadian banks no longer develop property but simply loan the money to purebred developers. Canadian banks haven't been significant developers for decades.

The rest are mostly local developers who build what they can finance on shorter timelines, maybe a nod to Starwood which is a public company running hotels for mutual funds.

This is not my area of expertise, but isn't starwood run out of New York? As far as I know they don't have any admin functions out of Vancouver?

I'm not asking for anything more to be built, Vancouverites are well served. I'll be impressed if Oakridge gets built. I'm happy to have many neighbourhood nodes and I wouldn't want to live in Singapore which feels like a single idea, nor Las Vegas where it feels like everything goes.

The biggest impediment to better serving Vancouver would be facilitating the entrance or expansion of brands that are put off or delayed by currently expensive rents that are based on high land prices. Luxury brands are not held back because they have bigger profit margins and more importantly are growing fast.

Like I said before, we have a lot to learn from Singapore and the like (less so LV), and I think there is a LOT of growing for Vancouver to do. That said the impediment to brands not currently in Vancouver is far more complex than expensive real estate. From a retail stand point Vancouver isn't even that expensive, not to mention retailers will only pay a set percentage of what they can make in sales, so costs are in line with sales in this business much more than in other facets of real estate.

Like I said the reason there are brands that don't exist in Vancouver is complex and quite often very unique, but some of the major ones are strategic growth plans (ie focusing on international growth, shying away from current growth etc...), Simple timing issues, or just waiting for the right opportunity. Global retailers are large operations and as such are able to be patient to wait for the exact unit/location they want. I know for a fact Uniqlo has been sniffing around Vancouver for a while, and they are biding their time to find the right unit for them, Victoria's secret spent years scouting out their flagship location, and we all know how long it is taking Apple to land on their flagship location. This is the same in Vancouver as it is in any market. The search for Toronto's apple store for instance has taken years as well.

This discussion went beyond serving Vancouver's retail demand, it was about doing bigger or better than what exists today and thus about bringing sales that today are happening elsewhere into Vancouver. I would say myself and Vin arbitrarily focused on growing demand by attracting sales into Vancouver, and you focused on matching the demand of a growing Vancouver and I agree with both. I'm sorry if you're annoyed by my focus on things like sidewalks, if details are avoided or pieces don't fit then I see that as waste which bothers me more than it should (eg: the bottom contour of MNP tower's glass.)

What's your opinion from the developer's perspective? I mean, is there anything that could be done better or that you see will follow after the current trend of projects.

There are always things that could be done better, and I fully agree with you and Vin that we should be pushing to enhance and build this city as best we can. What I disagreed with is that we should not be proud of our current standing or that the issues are as easily fixed as it was being portrayed.

i think we should look to the global cities and try to emulate their successes, while ensuring they are strategies that work for our unique market. I suppose you could sum it up that I want everything that you and Vin want, I'm just much more of a pragmatist about how we are going to get there.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Prometheus

Hey LeftCoaster, what is the word on that plan to create a high-end two-storey retail unit on the northeast corner of Georgia and Howe? It was in its final stages of planning a few years ago but apparently the proposed tenant declined in the end. Is that project dead now?

Not dead at all, but 725 Granville took over CFs team. Once that project is complete I'd expect some movement over at the rotunda.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

If we're going to speak frankly Vin, you have no idea what you are talking about.

Building owners are right now upgrading their retail offerings to attract lux brands, you see it all down Alberni, at 725 Granville etc... The tenants are taking as much space as they see their sales will demand. If the tenants wanted more the landlords would build more, that's how this business works. It is more or less 100% demand driven. Landlords are always trying to build more, maximize the value of their assets, and to suggest otherwise signals a complete lack of understanding of the entire industry.

This isn't a kevin costner movie. You don't just build a billion dollar mall and hope the brands come.

Like I said before, the fact that building owners need to upgrade their premises (some from wooden shacks) is because of a lack of new quality retail spaces downtown. You should be eating your own words that there is no demand.

And again, please try not to exaggerate and put words in my mouth regarding the cost of a new mall. Did I ever say a billion dollar mall needs to be built?
You tend to keep doing that to twist words of those opposing your views just to bulldoze your points across. And sure, I'm sure you are a pro in the retail industry, and I'm not. Sure.

[Prometheus]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Not dead at all, but 725 Granville took over CFs team. Once that project is complete I'd expect some movement over at the rotunda.

Thank you.

I am surprised they are not big enough to handle both projects at the same time, especially considering that the rotunda seems like a standout location in the geographical centre of Vancouver's current high-end retail expansion (e.g. Saks to the east, Nordstrom to the south, Holts to the north and Hotel Vancouver and Alberni Street to the west).

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Vin

Like I said before, the fact that building owners need to upgrade their premises (some from wooden shacks) is because of a lack of new quality retail spaces downtown. You should be eating your own words that there is no demand.

And again, please try not to exaggerate and put words in my mouth regarding the cost of a new mall. Did I ever say a billion dollar mall needs to be built?
You tend to keep doing that to twist words of those opposing your views just to bulldoze your points across. And sure, I'm sure you are a pro in the retail industry, and I'm not. Sure.

I never said there was NO demand, I said there was no demand to build that style of mall. Don't try and change what was said. You lamented the fact that we aren't building ION Orchard etc... and I simply stated that things are good here and we will build what demand dictates. That's what I have said all along. There is plenty of lux development happening in the city, and when it reaches the mass where we can support a development like an Asian top tier mall we will build one im sure. We're just not there yet.

And I think you might be underestimating the cost of a new mall downtown Canada. A decent addition or refurbishment of a mall can run into the 300-400 million dollar range and that doesn't even factor into account the cost of the land. Building something ground up the likes of what you posted a few pages back could easily run $700 million to near a billion.

High end retail malls are damn expensive.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by Prometheus

Thank you.

I am surprised they are not big enough to handle both projects at the same time, especially considering that the rotunda seems like a standout location in the geographical centre of Vancouver's current high-end retail expansion (e.g. Saks to the east, Nordstrom to the south, Holts to the north and Hotel Vancouver and Alberni Street to the west).

Could be a leasing move - so that the corner streetfront retail @ Howe & Georgia doesn't undermine efforts to lease the space under Nordstrom.
Likewise, CF could have concurrently built on the plaza next to the Canada Line Station too, as it is eventually slated to envelope the station with streetfront retal.

[EdinVan]

Originally Posted by Built Form

'Robson Landmark' (south-west corner Robson/Thurlow) is also losing Aritzia as they are expanding into the former B2 space next door. Red Robin will not be renewing their lease this year either as the demolition and redevelopment of this site inches closer.

Though I see still For Lease signs on some of these storefronts... Hmm.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

...This isn't a kevin costner movie. You don't just build a billion dollar mall and hope the brands come.

Unless of course you're the owner of Tinseltown/International Village.

[connect2source]

Originally Posted by Prometheus

Thank you.

I am surprised they are not big enough to handle both projects at the same time, especially considering that the rotunda seems like a standout location in the geographical centre of Vancouver's current high-end retail expansion (e.g. Saks to the east, Nordstrom to the south, Holts to the north and Hotel Vancouver and Alberni Street to the west).

What ever happened to this rather ungainly concept from 2008 for the rotunda featuring A&F?

Photo By : mallvibes.com

[spm2013]

....

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I never said there was NO demand, I said there was no demand to build that style of mall. Don't try and change what was said. You lamented the fact that we aren't building ION Orchard etc... and I simply stated that things are good here and we will build what demand dictates. That's what I have said all along. There is plenty of lux development happening in the city, and when it reaches the mass where we can support a development like an Asian top tier mall we will build one im sure. We're just not there yet.

And I think you might be underestimating the cost of a new mall downtown Canada. A decent addition or refurbishment of a mall can run into the 300-400 million dollar range and that doesn't even factor into account the cost of the land. Building something ground up the likes of what you posted a few pages back could easily run $700 million to near a billion.

High end retail malls are damn expensive.

A god example of this is Guilford mall. The reno was $300 million. And no disrespect to Ledcor And Ivanhoe but the mall was done on a post 2008 budget. If you notice the fit and finish you know it was done on at a low price point. This would not fly in a high price mall. Does any one know the square foot price comparing guilford to pacific center.

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by connect2source

What ever happened to this rather ungainly concept from 2008 for the rotunda featuring A&F?

Photo By : mallvibes.com

There was talk but A& F pulled out is what I heard. There was also talk of them going into Metrotown. I dont think we will see an A&F here anytime soon. Hollister does to well here one of the top stores in the company

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Unless of course you're the owner of Tinseltown/International Village.

I have worked in a few shops and have dealt with mall admin. It is an orphaned project by asian investors I believe. Simular to the building sitting empty in Surrey. THe email to lease there is a gmail account classy

[Prometheus]

Originally Posted by officedweller

Could be a leasing move - so that the corner streetfront retail @ Howe & Georgia doesn't undermine efforts to lease the space under Nordstrom.

But does that make sense? A relatively small, underground, low-ceiling mall unit and a large, two-storey flagship store on a prominent street corner likely serve different needs.

[theKB]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

A god example of this is Guilford mall. The reno was $300 million. And no disrespect to Ledcor And Ivanhoe but the mall was done on a post 2008 budget. If you notice the fit and finish you know it was done on at a low price point. This would not fly in a high price mall. Does any one know the square foot price comparing guilford to pacific center.

I think last I heard is that PC is around 250/ft. I would love to know some numbers for the various malls. I understand that Park Royal is a relative bargain.

I'm curious if anyone sees any long term potential in the east/south end of robson for retail growth? Looking for new retail space in this city is just providing to be a big headache.