Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneW
I'd think that urban shopping is probably more threatened by online shopping than suburban shopping malls just because of the demographics of their respective shoppers.
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To be sure there are some demographic correlations for now, but those are by nature temporary in the long run, and I think the real long run determining factor will be the kind of product in question. Basically, if it is a branded product produced remotely, or a commodity-type product, and you don't need to "try it out" in person (and even that issue can be addressed with good return policies) or need in-person customer service, then online shopping is going to have a big cost and convenience advantage (particularly as entities like Amazon perfect same-day delivery).
All that is going to ultimately apply to suburbs just as much as core areas. In fact there is sort of a feedback effect where the more items you get online, the greater incentive to get even more items online, because the fixed cost of going on any given shopping trip outside the home is being spread over fewer and fewer items. And those trip-cost factors really undermine the "shopping mall" model, which basically depends on people being willing to drive farther from their home and put up with huge parking lots and lots of walking around with stuff in their hands because they can get so much shopping done in one trip.
So the future of commercial areas everywhere is really in personal service-heavy outlets--things like medical care facilities, restaurants, boutique shops and so forth. And both the suburbs and core-areas can still have lots of stuff on that model (indeed, people are increasingly spending more on such service-heavy things as they reallocate spending from products). But malls in particular are not well-suited to that sort of commerce.