Quote:
Originally Posted by lrt's friend
As this project moves closer and closer to reality, you have been sounding more and more pessimistic about it...
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Yes, it might well sound like that; but it is not because of the project, per se. I have recently been hearing things like the Treasurer's statement that they had only modelled the Transit debt and that they had no idea of what other debt might be needed; or that the O-Trains are worn to the point of needing a major rebuild after only ten years. Apparently the residual value in these multi-million dollar units is only about $200,000 each.
The more I hear, the more I have to question whether City Staff know the concequences of what they are doing.
I find it interesting that the cost of the tunneling has dropped from $735 down to $493, but the entire project has remained at $2.1B. So now the cost of a tunnel is LESS THAN 1/4 of the project cost. If we spent even $600M (a 20% increase) on a bus tunnel, it would take a long, long time to eat up the other $1.5B in the extra cost to run buses.
And that is just the start of the savings: If we stayed with buses, they could continue to run along the Ottawa River Parkway. If we don't have to build the WLRT, we could save hundreds of millions more.
I like the idea of a train, but this is sounding more and more as if the City just doesn't know what it is getting in to.
I am convinced that it was Councilors and the Mayor who finally forced Staff to re-evaluate their downtown alignment. Staff had no interest at all in opening up something that was 'Council approved'. How many hundreds of times were they told that the tunnel was too deep? I reckon that Staff was told in no uncertain terms that the project would be killed if it was not modified to stay under $2.1B.
And that is exactly what Staff did: They made a change in the western portion of the tunnel so that the cost was reduced to $2.1B; then the optimization was stopped because no more was needed. What about all the other 'assumptions' which were not 'challenged'? No need to look any further; so they just connect up the new alignment and depth to the remaining previous plan. It doesn't matter if the train takes a "deep dive" after the Downtown-east Station so that it can meet the old plan, only to meet it at the point where it is rocketing up to the surface. Maybe we can charge a premium - if we can get the LRT licenced as an amusement ride.
Once Staff was forced to open up the plan, ALL assumptions should have been looked at. Now that the western portion of the tunnel is less deep, how about going ABOVE the sewers to the east of the canal. Those sewer pipes are 20 metres down, leaving lots of room for a tunnel above them. Then, since it is shallow, why not use Cut & Cover for that 'technically challenging' section in front of the Rideau Centre. That leaves only about 750 metres so it is hardly worth buying a Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) for that. Now that a TBM is not going to be used, there is no need for such a large radius curve. Yes, I recognize that large radii curves are better for running a train around, but my point is that it is not NECESSARY. Maybe it would be possible to Cut & Cover a curve through the parking lot to the north-east of the Rideau Centre and run the tunnel to Campus under Nicholas Street. Since it is a relatively straignt line, maybe a new Laurier Station could be incorporated into the next phase of the Demarais Building.
And then there is what connects to the tunnel on the west end: If the tunnel doesn't have to dive down from LeBreton Station, maybe it would be better to simply keep the train elevated across LeBreton Flats. The plan of building a HUGE many-laned bridge to carry Booth Street over the train and the aqueduct may not be necessary if the train went over Booth. And if Booth isn't being closed down, maybe the extension of Preston doesn't need to also be a HUGE multi-laned bridge, just so it can get over the train and aqueduct, carring all of the truck traffic while Booth is out of commission. Not to mention, the steep drop (about 4.5%) from the Bayview Station to get under the Preston extension wouldn't be necessary; the train could travel almost level until it entered the escarpment face. Perhaps, this would even allow the train to pass over Commissioner and Wellington Streets, entering a portal high on the escarpment's face - which, in turn makes for a less deep, less expensive, run under Queen Street.
The possibilities are huge, but, alas, Staff has met their objective and reduced the cost to $2.1B. Who cares if it could have been made cheaper and better; that would take more work.
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