CFL in the Maritimes

[someone123]

The X-hour radius populations might or might not be correct but even if they are correct they are misleading.

People living 50 minutes away are presented as being the same as somebody living next door to a stadium for CFL attendance purposes. I have not seen evidence of why this should be anticipated and this would have to be proven for a Moncton CFL business case. Giving somebody 3 hours away the same weight seems like an even bigger stretch, and Moncton would have to rely on that kind of person more than any other CFL franchise.

Something else that gets swept under the rug is detail about these populations. People talk about Moncton growing quickly but to calculate that they look at a population of 135,000. Most of the population within even one hour would be rural and is probably not growing as quickly. Regina is actually growing faster and that figure includes most of the population. Halifax is growing at the same rate when we consider a population three times larger. This means that, even if we do accept the "catchment area" theory, Moncton's catchment area will likely fall behind the others in the coming decades.

Another point people usually don't mention is that the 3-hour radius in that chart for Moncton includes Halifax. It's therefore a pretty weak argument for why a franchise should go in Moncton. I wonder if people in Hamilton or Trois-Rivières argue that they should be the ones with major sporting infrastructure since they're more "central"?

[Gnarly]

Well...i guess, using that methodology...then Saint John would be a better location

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

Ah, well. Way to blow my post out of the water, MonctonRad

No worries Myles, we always seem to be rubbing elbows with our posts.

To expound on the population issue:

Westmorland County.......132,849
Kent County....................31,449
Albert County...................27,562
Kings County....................65,824
Cumberland County............32,046

Total.............................289,730

Now, to be honest, the one hour radius of Moncton extends only as far as Hampton and therefore does not include southern King's County but there are portions of other counties (like Queens County), which I have not included which are within one hour of Moncton, so I think the ~290,000 population estimate is valid.

Originally Posted by someone123

Something else that gets swept under the rug is detail about these populations. People talk about Moncton growing quickly but to calculate that they look at a population of 135,000. Most of the population within even one hour would be rural and is probably not growing as quickly. Regina is actually growing faster and that figure includes most of the population.

HRM encompasses a huge area (larger than PEI), so the HRM population also includes a rural component, some of which is about two hours or so from the peninsular core of the city. It is therefore somewhat disingenuous to complain about the rural fringe of Moncton.

If you want to compare apples to apples, You should look at the total population of Westmorland/Albert/Kent if you want to compare Halifax to Moncton, at least it would be a similar physical size. The tri-county area has a population nearing 200,000. A fairly large portion of the people in the rural fringe within these three counties commute to Moncton for work.

Originally Posted by someone123

Halifax is growing at the same rate when we consider a population three times larger. This means that, even if we do accept the "catchment area" theory, Moncton's catchment area will likely fall behind the others in the coming decades.

Moncton does have the sixth highest growth rate in the country, ahead of Halifax but I do agree with you that in terms of absolute growth, that Halifax is adding more people than Moncton. Whether this trend continues into the future however is debatable. Halifax is already nearly half of Nova Scotia's population. At some point, rural depopulation will have to start petering out. Also, the overall population is aging, so Halifax may not grow so robustly in the future. Similarly, the rural depopulation of the north in NB will have to end sometime as well, so Moncton may slow down in the future as well.

What will drive population growth is jobs and the overall attractiveness of the municipality. This is something that I know both Moncton and Halifax are striving to enhance.

Originally Posted by Gnarly

Well...i guess, using that methodology...then Saint John would be a better location

I don't know what would cause you to state this aside from bitterness or envy. Saint John (although a very nice city) is neither growing nor centrally located. I wish Saint John well, but they are in no position to compete for a CFL franchise.

[Taeolas]

For what it's worth, as someone who lives in Fredericton, I know that I would go to Moncton for events, as do many others who live in this city. So for the sake of a CFL game, people would without blinking twice, head down the TCH to go to Moncton for a game. Those same people on the other hand would NOT go to Halifax; Halifax is a weekend trip for up here.

[brettinhalifax]

account deleted

[q12]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

For what it's worth, as someone who lives in Fredericton, I know that I would go to Moncton for events, as do many others who live in this city. So for the sake of a CFL game, people would without blinking twice, head down the TCH to go to Moncton for a game. Those same people on the other hand would NOT go to Halifax; Halifax is a weekend trip for up here.

That's okay we honestly don't need support from Fredericton in Halifax for a CFL team, but thanks for the thought...

I find it funny that you guys keeping trying to bring up some numbers in Moncton like it's going to convince somebody that Moncton is big enough and therefore somehow is appropriately sized for the CFL.

Funny how the tables have turned in the last year. Now with Halifax actively pursuing the construction of a SUITABLE CFL stadium it seems like people on these forums are panicking trying to make some sort of last ditch effort for a case for a CFL team in Moncton.

Moncton even though it is hosting another touchdown Atlantic (mainly due to the fact Halifax does not currently have an adequate stadium) is not in a position now or anytime in the foreseeable future to have a CFL franchise, due to population and inadequate stadium.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

HRM encompasses a huge area (larger than PEI), so the HRM population also includes a rural component, some of which is about two hours or so from the peninsular core of the city. It is therefore somewhat disingenuous to complain about the rural fringe of Moncton.

If you want to compare apples to apples, You should look at the total population of Westmorland/Albert/Kent if you want to compare Halifax to Moncton, at least it would be a similar physical size. The tri-county area has a population nearing 200,000. A fairly large portion of the people in the rural fringe within these three counties commute to Moncton for work.

Give me a break somewhere around 1% of HRM lives out in the rural fringe toward Ecum Secum. Larger places not included in HRM 's population are within a 30-45 minute drive like Mount Uniacke, Elmsdale, Chester etc.

And as for previous comments about Halifax not deserving of the CFL, this is not true. Maybe some politicians have just woken up in Halifax, but the people have been interested for a lot longer than Moncton. We had a CFL franchise already awarded back in the 80's. We have strong support for university football that will only grow with a new stadium (and is a driving force behind the reason we need a new stadium). We also already hosted a CFL game (before Moncton) and was set to get another until Ottawa folded.



Instead of people in Moncton giving us the endles b.s. about why Moncton is so big and is so deserving of a CFL franchise , why don't you step back into reality and focus your efforts on a university team that would benefit from having a great venue to play out of.

It's not that it's over in terms of a debate between who should get a CFL franchise in Atlantic Canada, it never really began. There was only really one question for the CFL brass. When was Halifax going to build an adequate stadium. Well the answer is soon. And when that happens it will just confirm everything I told you and everything you already knew deep down but were ignoring due to the over the top hype thats gets generated in the media in Moncton.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by q12

That's okay we honestly don't need support from Fredericton in Halifax for a CFL team, but thanks for the thought....

Thanks for reconfirming what other Maritimers have long known, which is the general contempt that some (not all) Haligonians have for the rest of the region.....

I don't think you guys should even think about naming your wished for team the "Atlantic Schooners" or the "Maritime Marauders", because you don't really mean it. To be blunt, you should just go ahead and call the team the "Halifax Harbour Hoppers", because in fact this is what you intend to have - a Halifax team for Halifax. The rest of the region just doesn't matter as far as you guys are concerned.

A Moncton team on the other hand would tend to rely more heavily on regional support, much like the Saskatchewan Rough Riders. I wonder which is the healthier model?

All I know is that I have lived a considerable amount of time in all three Maritime provinces and I know the entire region quite well. Most Maritimers are generally quite open minded. When I lived in Halifax however, I came across many residents (of the peninsula in particular) who tended to have a limited and somewhat condescending opinion of the remainder of the region. Haligonians should not suppose that they speak for the entire Maritimes.

The choice for the CFL would appear to be a team in Halifax for Halifax OR a team in Moncton for the Maritimes. It will be interesting to see what transpires.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Thanks for reconfirming what other Maritimers have long known, which is the general contempt that some (not all) Haligonians have for the rest of the region.....

I don't think you guys should even think about naming your wished for team the "Atlantic Schooners" or the "Maritime Marauders", because you don't really mean it. To be blunt, you should just go ahead and call the team the "Halifax Harbour Hoppers", because in fact this is what you intend to have - a Halifax team for Halifax. The rest of the region just doesn't matter as far as you guys are concerned.

A Moncton team on the other hand would tend to rely more heavily on regional support, much like the Saskatchewan Rough Riders. I wonder which is the healthier model?

All I know is that I have lived a considerable amount of time in all three Maritime provinces and I know the entire region quite well. Most Maritimers are generally quite open minded. When I lived in Halifax however, I came across many residents (of the peninsula in particular) who tended to have a limited and somewhat condescending opinion of the remainder of the region. Haligonians should not suppose that they speak for the entire Maritimes.

The choice for the CFL would appear to be a team in Halifax for Halifax OR a team in Moncton for the Maritimes. It will be interesting to see what transpires.

Funny thing is though they likely will still name the team the Atlantic Schooner's. And when Halifax builds a real stadium, gets the franchise, people will still come from outside HRM to see it since it will be the only real pro team (or semi pro compared to the NFL) in town (and the region).

[someone123]

Originally Posted by brettinhalifax

The table isn't too hard to understand... people living 50 minutes away are presented as being less than 1 hour away. People living next door are also presented as being less than 1 hour away.

Yes, this is what's misleading, particularly when you start looking at people living 2 or 3 hours away. There are all kinds of inherent assumptions when you take numbers like that and presume that they indicate something like potential CFL attendance. Unfortunately on this forum there is often a belief that once you manage to produce some kind of number the discussion is over.

Originally Posted by monctonrad

HRM encompasses a huge area (larger than PEI), so the HRM population also includes a rural component, some of which is about two hours or so from the peninsular core of the city. It is therefore somewhat disingenuous to complain about the rural fringe of Moncton.

If you want to compare apples to apples, You should look at the total population of Westmorland/Albert/Kent if you want to compare Halifax to Moncton, at least it would be a similar physical size.

I think you are missing my point. Even supposing HRM is half rural (it's not), statistics like population growth include the whole area. In Moncton they do not. It's again misleading to talk about 6th highest growth in the country (for a small area of 135,000) and then for the purposes of reporting the population talk about some completely different population.

The "HRM is the size of PEI" claim is a red herring. Nobody lives in the eastern half of the HRM and either way, it's part of the CMA because people commute from there to the city. The area outside of Moncton is not -- this says more about the catchment area and scale of the two cities than drawing arbitrarily-sized regions and counting the number of people inside them. If we were to compare Moncton to New York would it make sense to draw a New York metro-sized shape in the Maritimes (17,000 sq. km) and then claim that there is a city of 700,000 or whatever it works out to?

[brettinhalifax]

account deleted

[MonctonRad]

Thank you Brett. That summarizes things very well.

The fact remains that there are nearly 300,000 people within an hour of Moncton (just like there are over 500,000 people within an hour of Halifax). It doesn't really matter if they are urban or rural, or considered as part of the CMA or not. What does matter is that they live within a distance that is close enough that they could be season's ticket holders for a CFL franchise.

The whole CMA thing sometimes seems rather obtuse to me. For example Shediac is not considered part of the Moncton CMA despite the fact that it is only 15 minutes from downtown Moncton. It is truly a suburb of the city but is not counted as such. If it (and the intervening village of Scoudouc) were, it would elevate the Moncton CMA from 137,500 to at least 145,000.

What's up with that!

[nwalbert]

I am not sure I understand this debate. Why does it have to be Halifax or Moncton? The CFL is a business and will open a new franchise/team wherever it is financially viable and there is a solid business case. The league or any potential owner doesn't care about who deserves a team, they care about profits.

If Halifax builds a stadium, there is likely to be a solid business case that a team would be successful. ie: profitable.

If anyone thought a Moncton team would be successful, why isn't there a team? The only stadium they are going to have has been built, so why hasn't anyone stepped up? It isn't as if a team in Moncton would mean one could not existin Halifax. If anything it would help since the regional rivalry would most likely result in more fans, profits.

If I was a CFL owner and played several weekday evening games I would not want to depend on 2/3rd of my fan base having a 3 hour round-trip commute to the stadium. An occasional Saturday, sure, but not week in, week out for the multiple years it would take to recoup my investment.

Have to face some facts here, the CFL is a business and the people wealthy enough to own teams are businessmen who make their decisions based on strong/viable business cases.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by nwalbert

There is just no business case for a team in Moncton. If there was, there would be a team.

What the city of Moncton is trying to do with exercises like Touchdown Atlantic is to build a business case for a franchise in Moncton.

I would agree with other posters that on the face of it, it would seem ludicrous to put a major league (sorry q12) franchise in a city of 137,000 people. If however you can show that you have no trouble selling out events like Touchdown Atlantic, and you can demonstrate that there is an active football culture in the community (with the high school and Mount A games that are part of the event), then you start to get people's attention.

The city is actively communicating with the CFL at all levels. Cohon and the existing team owners knows who our mayor is. The CFL is also aware of the business leadership in our community. Moncton is going about this process entirely differently from Halifax. The city is being very professional and proactive in it's dealings with the CFL. This professional approach should pay some dividends in the future.

Again, I'm not saying it will be easy and many people will naturally assume that the only "logical" place for an Atlantic franchise is Halifax but perhaps we should be looking beyond the surface of the issue. The more that the CFL get's to know Moncton, the more complicated the choice will be for them. This is where Moncton may have the advantage - because of our head start.

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

ludicrous to put a major league (sorry q12) franchise in a city of 137,000 people. If however you can show that you have no trouble selling out events like Touchdown Atlantic

Cohon and the existing team owners knows who our mayor is.

I am not sure that there is any correlation whatsoever between the ability to host a one time event in a temporary facility and supporting a long term investment. If the Federal government invests money in the Canada Games Stadium in Saint John and they sellout a CFL game does that mean a team could survive in Saint John?

I had to laugh about the comment about the mayor. I am not sure how you know that all eight owners know who the mayor is, which I highly doubt, but I can't for the life of me understand the relevance to this conversation. I bet they can name at least one Backstreet Boy too.

All kidding aside, the bottom line is talk is cheap. The CFL required the government to put money upfront to guarantee Touchdown Atlantic. Touchdown Atlantic was a success yet no movement on a franchise. There is a homeless team in the league apparently and they are not planning to spend the year in Moncton.

The right things are being said to entice Halifax that they could have a team if they desired, but there are no actions to indicate anything else. This is business not a government investment, all that is relevant is potential profits.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

What the city of Moncton is trying to do with exercises like Touchdown Atlantic is to build a business case for a franchise in Moncton.

I would agree with other posters that on the face of it, it would seem ludicrous to put a major league (sorry q12) franchise in a city of 137,000 people. If however you can show that you have no trouble selling out events like Touchdown Atlantic, and you can demonstrate that there is an active football culture in the community (with the high school and Mount A games that are part of the event), then you start to get people's attention.

The city is actively communicating with the CFL at all levels. Cohon and the existing team owners knows who our mayor is. The CFL is also aware of the business leadership in our community. Moncton is going about this process entirely differently from Halifax. The city is being very professional and proactive in it's dealings with the CFL. This professional approach should pay some dividends in the future.

Again, I'm not saying it will be easy and many people will naturally assume that the only "logical" place for an Atlantic franchise is Halifax but perhaps we should be looking beyond the surface of the issue. The more that the CFL get's to know Moncton, the more complicated the choice will be for them. This is where Moncton may have the advantage - because of our head start.

Money. It all comes down to money. All this fluff about a relationship with the CFL is meaningless. The CFL is not a charity.

Moncton has no suitable CFL stadium, therefore it has no advantage.

Halifax is serious about building a suitable stadium (If you haven't noticed ), So it has an advantage.

Moncton should take a long term strategy and look at acquiring a university team first (which I think would be great in Moncton). Than after the CFL expands to 10 teams (Hopefully Ottawa by 2013, and Halifax by 2015) they might look at 12 teams in the next decade or so.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by nwalbert

I had to laugh about the comment about the mayor. I am not sure how you know that all eight owners know who the mayor is, which I highly doubt, but I can't for the life of me understand the relevance to this conversation. I bet they can name at least one Backstreet Boy too.

Well, George LeBlanc and Ian Fowler were invited to the Grey Cup this year, and were included in CFL sponsored events that week. They have certainly had significant discussions with the owners of the Argonauts and Eskimos and I know that they have developed a personal relationship with the owner of the Stampeders as well. The rest I'm not sure about, but I'm sure that they at least met the owners at the Grey Cup.

How much schmoozing has Peter Kelly done?

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Well, George LeBlanc and Ian Fowler were invited to the Grey Cup this year, and were included in CFL sponsored events that week. They have certainly had significant discussions with the owners of the Argonauts and Eskimos and I know that they have developed a personal relationship with the owner of the Stampeders as well. The rest I'm not sure about, but I'm sure that they at least met the owners at the Grey Cup.

How much schmoozing has Peter Kelly done?

Mayor Kelly is doing the right thing, by first getting the proper stadium. The rest will fall into place.

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Well, George LeBlanc and Ian Fowler were invited to the Grey Cup this year, and were included in CFL sponsored events that week. They have certainly had significant discussions with the owners of the Argonauts and Eskimos and I know that they have developed a personal relationship with the owner of the Stampeders as well. The rest I'm not sure about, but I'm sure that they at least met the owners at the Grey Cup.

As other have mentioned, this point is irrelevant. I am sure the Mayor of Moncton is a nice guy, and I am sure he got along with whomever he met while enjoying the Grey Cup on the taxpayers dime.

How does this make a better business case for a CFL team? Unless he is planning to purchase 10,000 seasons tickets his personal relationships are irrelevant.

It comes down to dollars and cents, and I haven't seen anyone betting their money that a team would work.

[fenwick16]

This thread is really starting to heat up. I have to give the city of Moncton credit for showing so much desire. However, Halifax seems to be catching fire.

I still like the Atlantic Schooners name for a Halifax CFL team. If Halifax could get both a pro soccer team and CFL team then a stadium might actually make money like BMO field.

[Gnarly]

The whole point of my previous post, was that, if the only yardstick being used to determine where a CFL franchise should go, was the 'people within one hour of Moncton', then.....the fact that there are more people living within one hour of Saint John, than of Moncton .......doesen,t make the case either.
Sorry Moncton....but your so full of yourself, and your perceived importance.