Hamilton Votes 2008

[ryan_mcgreal]

Originally Posted by BrianE

I'm really torn on this one. My opinions and issues match very well with the Liberal platform and I really don't exactly agree with a lot of NDP policies...

Historically, the best way to get the Liberals to follow their own platform is to get enough NDP members elected to hold the Liberals accountable.

[markbarbera]

For those interested in Polls, here is a link to the weekly poll summary by Nanos Research:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...tember-18E.pdf

Nanos (formerly SES) was the most accurate pollster last time around.

An interesting number never reported along with these numbers is the level of undecided voters. Currently it is at 18%, nearly 1 in 5 Candaians are undecided. Poll results always factor out undecideds. For instance, Nanos reports national support is currently Conservatives 38%, Liberals 30, NDP 18%, Greens 7% and Bloc 6%, but this only includes decideds. In actuality, the full breakdown of all polled electors is really Conservatives 31%, Liberals 24%, Undecided 18%, NDP 15%, Greens 6%, BQ 5%. The pollsters factor out the undecided based on the assumption that they are not likely to vote on election day, which may not be a very correct assumption.


I applied the regional background poll results against the 2006 election's individual riding results, which I have in a spreadsheet. Basically, if an election was held today resulting in the vote spread detailed in Nanos' regional breakdown, I figure the seat breakdown would look something like this:

Conservative Party of Canada: 144 seats
Liberal Party of Canada: 109 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 29 seats
New Democratic Party: 24 seats
Green Party of Canada: 2 seats

155 seats are required for a majority government.

A seat breakdown like that would make for an interesting (and brief) parliamentary session.

[SteelTown]

Wow 29 seats for Bloc, that is a big drop

[markbarbera]

Quebec is fascinating. The BQ is imploding. Liberals are benefitting from this in the Montreal area, the Conservatives everywhere else. My model shows the Bloq losing 22 seats, the Liberals gaining 8 of their Montreal-area seats, and the Conservatives gaining the other 14. It also shows the NDP byelection gain in Outremont reverting back to a Liberal seat.

Remember though, these are early days.

[raisethehammer]

Originally Posted by Jon Dalton

That seems like a rather superficial judgement to me. I think the media turns it into a big joke by harping on all their publicity gaffes and personal attacks on eachother. Every article I've read in the Spec makes some reference to Dion's apparent lack of leadership but never mentioned one fact or event that led to such an accusation. I'd like to think that it's substance over style if nowhere else, when it comes to choosing our country's top leader.

I haven't heard one word out of his mouth that is a good idea or great vision for Canada.
he's like a yes-man for the machine, but I'm not too sure what they are hoping to accomplish with him.
He seems best suited with his face buried in a 3,000 page research paper, not talking among other human beings.
Call that superficial if you want, but I want a PM who is somewhat normal and can relate to people, not these constant rich, spoiled brats who who wouldn't know how to drive themselves to the local grocery store if they had to.

give me an uneducated, brash, less-than flashy dresser who is passionate about Canada and our future AND past heritage. Jack Layton seems to be the only one with the remotest sense of this, but he doesn't know whether he's coming or going.

[SteelTown]

Liberals unveil unprecedented infrastructure plan

TORONTO – A new Liberal government will commit more than $70 billion over the next 10 years to improve the critical infrastructure that supports Canada’s competitiveness and quality of life and will divert unanticipated annual budget surpluses to infrastructure projects, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion announced today.

“Canada faces an infrastructure deficit in the hundreds of billions of dollars,” said Mr. Dion. “A Liberal government will invest aggressively to reduce that deficit, working in partnership with the provinces and territories and our cities and communities.”

In these times of economic difficulty, we Liberals understand that the government must make investments into those areas that will increase our competitiveness and at the same time, create good, well-paying jobs for Canadians.

While honouring all existing framework agreements that have been signed with the provinces and territories, our $70-billion investment will support Liberal priorities, including building and upgrading strategic infrastructure, creating a National Transit Strategy, developing a Small Communities Fund, strengthening gateway, corridor, and border infrastructure, and renewing and expanding sports and recreational facilities.

A Liberal government created the gas tax transfer to municipalities to help them invest in important infrastructure needs, and we will now index it to economic growth so our cities and communities can develop as our economy grows. Over the course of our 10-year plan, municipalities will see almost $25 billion transferred to them through the improved gas tax transfer.

This announcement builds on a Liberal commitment made in February 2008 that all unanticipated surplus funds beyond a $3-billion contingency reserve will be spent on infrastructure, particularly green infrastructure.

A new Liberal government will also create an Infrastructure Bank to make available to all levels of government low-cost financing for infrastructure projects such as regional energy grids or high-speed rail.

“Canada’s cities and towns are the engines of our economy,” said Mr. Dion. “Without significant long-term investments in infrastructure, our economy and environment will suffer. This plan will provide Canada’s economic engines with the support they need, and is an important part of our efforts to reduce Canada’s environmental footprint.”

[raisethehammer]

yea, and we all know what the chances are of this happening if they're elected - the same as every other great promise involving a 'new deal for cities' that they've been spouting off about since Chretien was PM.

[drpgq]

You don't need a Liberal membership card to post on this thread right? Just checking that I didn't stumble into the wrong place on the internets.

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Liberals unveil unprecedented infrastructure plan

TORONTO – A new Liberal government will commit more than $70 billion over the next 10 years to improve the critical infrastructure that supports Canada’s competitiveness and quality of life and will divert unanticipated annual budget surpluses to infrastructure projects, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion announced today.

“Canada faces an infrastructure deficit in the hundreds of billions of dollars,” said Mr. Dion. “A Liberal government will invest aggressively to reduce that deficit, working in partnership with the provinces and territories and our cities and communities.”

In these times of economic difficulty, we Liberals understand that the government must make investments into those areas that will increase our competitiveness and at the same time, create good, well-paying jobs for Canadians.

While honouring all existing framework agreements that have been signed with the provinces and territories, our $70-billion investment will support Liberal priorities, including building and upgrading strategic infrastructure, creating a National Transit Strategy, developing a Small Communities Fund, strengthening gateway, corridor, and border infrastructure, and renewing and expanding sports and recreational facilities.

A Liberal government created the gas tax transfer to municipalities to help them invest in important infrastructure needs, and we will now index it to economic growth so our cities and communities can develop as our economy grows. Over the course of our 10-year plan, municipalities will see almost $25 billion transferred to them through the improved gas tax transfer.

This announcement builds on a Liberal commitment made in February 2008 that all unanticipated surplus funds beyond a $3-billion contingency reserve will be spent on infrastructure, particularly green infrastructure.

A new Liberal government will also create an Infrastructure Bank to make available to all levels of government low-cost financing for infrastructure projects such as regional energy grids or high-speed rail.

“Canada’s cities and towns are the engines of our economy,” said Mr. Dion. “Without significant long-term investments in infrastructure, our economy and environment will suffer. This plan will provide Canada’s economic engines with the support they need, and is an important part of our efforts to reduce Canada’s environmental footprint.”

[markbarbera]

Originally Posted by raisethehammer

I haven't heard one word out of his mouth that is a good idea or great vision for Canada.

One needs to listen in order to hear.

Steeltown just posted Dion's infrastructure policy announcement here. Why don't you give it a read? I am interested to hear your opinion on it.

EDIT: Nevermind, I see you have already posted a carefully thought-out response.

[DC83]

Great annoucement!
Green: raisign GST back to 6%, using that 'extra' 1% to fund our cities infrastructure needs -- that's approx $3 billion/per.
Liberal: $70 Billion over 10 years
NDP: Have yet to hear their infrastructure plans
Conservatives: ????? Have they pledged anything yet?

Originally Posted by drpgq

You don't need a Liberal membership card to post on this thread right? Just checking that I didn't stumble into the wrong place on the internets.

No, man. You don't need a Liberal Membership Card in here, but rather one of Danny Williams' ABC (Anything But Conservative) Party Membership Card... but they're free and imaginary. So I'm a member already

[SteelTown]

I'm not a Liberal member. Personally I'm a progressive kind of person, socially liberal but fiscally conservative. Most of the time it ends up that the Liberals are socially liberal and fiscally conservative, especially Paul Martin.

If the PC party was still around I certainly would take them serious.

[BrianE]

Well 2 of my 3 big election issues have been covered by one party.

1. Energy Policy - Green Shift - Check

2. Infrastructure funding commitments - check

3. Arctic Soverignty - dunno yet

The Greens are covering the same issues as the Libs but why vote for them when the Libs actualy have a chance to govern.

[highwater]

Originally Posted by raisethehammer

Call that superficial if you want, but I want a PM who is somewhat normal and can relate to people, not these constant rich, spoiled brats who who wouldn't know how to drive themselves to the local grocery store if they had to.

Wow. You're making some pretty unfounded assumptions about Dion there. I get absolutely no sense of entitlement from Dion. He strikes me as far more unassuming and down-to-earth than Harper.

Originally Posted by raisethehammer

give me an uneducated, brash, less-than flashy dresser...

You forgot the ability to field-dress a moose. Personally I choose my candidate based on who I would like to have a beer with, but then I've always enjoyed having a beer with people who are smarter and more educated than I am.

[raisethehammer]

I'm amazed that people actually believe this stuff.
I've always wondered why these parties go around lying during campaigns tossing out promises left, right and centre that they have no intentions of keeping.
Now I know.

[DC83]

Originally Posted by highwater

You forgot the ability to field-dress a moose. Personally I choose my candidate based on who I would like to have a beer with, but then I've always enjoyed having a beer with people who are smarter and more educated than I am.

I also go by this theory. If they're down to earth enough to have a beer and just talk about issues, then you're my leader.

I think that's why Layton has such a high approval rating. He seems like the fun/outgoing uncle. Harper seems like the grumpy old grampa who no one likes talking to. Dion is the smart-alek lil cousin who the family pretends to listen to. May is like the crazy aunt who sells big gawdy jewelery at It's Your Festival and Hospitals. And Duceppe is the guy who's dating your neice that no one really cares about.

If they were at my fam reunion, that's how I'd see them.

[raisethehammer]

Originally Posted by DC83

I also go by this theory. If they're down to earth enough to have a beer and just talk about issues, then you're my leader.

I think that's why Layton has such a high approval rating. He seems like the fun/outgoing uncle. Harper seems like the grumpy old grampa who no one likes talking to. Dion is the smart-alek lil cousin who the family pretends to listen to. May is like the crazy aunt who sells big gawdy jewelery at It's Your Festival and Hospitals. And Duceppe is the guy who's dating your neice that no one really cares about.

If they were at my fam reunion, that's how I'd see them.

haha...that's pretty much bang on. (get ready for some of the no-humour police on the board to take offense to your post. lol)

[highwater]

Originally Posted by DC83

Dion is the smart-alek lil cousin who the family pretends to listen to.

You've got it all wrong. Dion is your thesis advisor.

[FairHamilton]

LOL, pretty much bang on. I especially like your description of May, as I've got that aunt. I mean who would wear a ring watch (my aunt, not May that I know of).

Harper could also be the creep that married your sister.

[fastcarsfreedom]

I'm really enjoying this discourse. I have to (hold your breath) defend RTH a little here--it would seem to me that branding Dion "a clown" is no more offensive than some of the things I've read in regard to the Prime Minister--none of which raised the ire of the intelligentsia the way an off-hand remark about Dion did.

I recommend (again, hold your breath) a healthy dose of CBC's election coverage. The network which is the only media outlet more wildly skewed left than the Toronto Star cannot even seem to make sense of Dion's "leadership"--while the "policy wonk" theory may hold some water--Harper is a policy-side operative also--but he's become more comfortable over the years--whereas Dion has taken to wearing aviator glasses and hanging off of Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff in an attempt to work some magic out of what is a decidely lackluster campaign (have a look at their rally turnouts thusfar). The infrastructure announcement yesterday is the most glaring evidence yet that the Liberal internal polling is showing a stall--no traction. Up until now M. Dion was telling us that his party was prepared to stand or fall on GreenShift...now we have a $70 billion committment to invest in--among other things--new roads. Interesting "shift" indeed...especially when out of the other corner of his mouth he's saying our economy is collapsing and we have no money and people are taking to the streets with swords and torches...now suddenly there is $70 billion to rebuild the infrastructure that 13 years of Liberal rule decimated by way of reduced provincial transfers (conveniently fleshing out the federal surplus).

On the much earlier post suggesting anglo-xenophobes 'fear' M. Dion's limited English language abilities--I think this is an empty accusation. English Canadians need to be able to understand their candidates--that's a simple fact. Moreover, in no way, shape or form would (or should) francophone Quebeckers ever tolerate a national leader without an appropriate command of their language...Dion's election as party leader still shocks me, even after all this time.

[raisethehammer]

fastcars...you took the words right out of my mouth - I was going to suggest that everyone watch the National on CBC each night. Awesome coverage.
I know the private media still likes to pound home the old 'leftist-CBC' image in the public's mind, but as one who watches the National 3-4 times a week over the past 5 years I can assure you that they've been harder on the Liberals than anyone else during that time. NDP is next - Layton came off looking stupid and conflicted during their session with him the other day. Mansbridge and the viewers kept hammering away at him.
They aren't necessarily pro-conservative, but they at least recognize a better run campaign and consistent message from that party.
Their 'At Issue' panel might be the best political TV in Canada, aside from Steve Paikin and 'The Agenda' on TVO.