Hamilton Votes 2008
 

So the Federal Election is around the corner (Oct 14th), and we still don't have a local thread.

Here are the ridings and their Candidates:

Ancaster - Dundas - Flamborough - Westdale

David Sweet[i] CON
Arlene MacFarlane-VanderBeek LIB
Gordon Guyatt NDP
Peter Ormond GRN

Hamilton Centre

Leon O'Connor CON
Helen Wilson LIB
David Christopherson [i] NDP
John Livingstone GRN


Hamilton East - Stoney Creek

Frank Rukavina CON
Larry Di Ianni LIB
Wayne Marston [i] NDP
*no Green candidate listed

Hamilton Mountain

Terry Anderson CON
Tyler Banham LIB
Chris Charlton [i] NDP
Stephen Brotherston GRN

Niagara West - Glanbrook

Dean Allison [i] CON
Heather Carter LIB
David Heatley NDP
Sid Frere GRN


How do YOU plan on voting?

I have nothing to hide.
I'm a Liberal by nature, but can't be bothered with Dion and his lack of anything. So luckily for me I have a proven politician in David Christopherson representing my riding and I'm more than happy to give him my vote in order keep him there!

I will do (almost) ANYTHING to ensure DiIanni doesn't win Hamilton East-SC.

Victoria Young dropped out so currently there's no Liberal for Hamilton Centre.

I think Larry Di Ianni will win. The Liberal machine will work overdrive to get a Liberal victory in Hamilton and Larry is the best chance.

I don't/won't hide my politics either. I've been a politically active Conservative since I was 15 years old--elections are incredibly energetic and exciting times for me--if nothing else it should serve as a reminder of how fortunate we are to have the opportunity to chose the direction our country will take going forward.

Since I am ex-patriate to the area, I will be using this Forum as well as other sources to follow the local races...I look forward to everyone's input.

Here are some initial thoughts...

Dion is--and this is me being as unbiased as possible--in a precarious position. This election call was more than likely the result of very positive internal polling by the Conservatives--and the initial polling seems to be bearing that out. Dion has been framed in a certain light by the Conservatives over the past several months and seems to have done precious little to counter it. I expect the Liberals to try to do something/anything in the next week or so, or they are going to spend the entire campaign on the defenisve--not a good place to be when you're in Opposition.

Locally for you folks, I wouldn't expect significant (if any changes). DiIanni has potential in HE-SC, but without a bounce from a strong federal campaign, he's going to be in tough against the incumbent. HM is also very changable in it's voting patterns and is one to watch. Nonetheless, I would be surprised to see the NDP lose significant support over '06 unless the Greens come on particularly strongly--something that seems unlikely in Ontario.

The Greens are an interesting phenomenon (I use that word lightly). I think their leader has come off horribly in this flap over the debates. They (the Greens) have alone decided they are important enough to be included--apparently on the basis that they have a patch-over candidate and ignoring the fact that they have a backroom deal with the Liberals not to oppose each other in certain ridings. I'd be interested to know what others are thinking on the Green issue...3 of the parties opposed her being present but so far only Harper has actually come out and said he was one of them.

I also fear DiIanni will win Ham E-SC :(
He has a huge name there (even though it's tainted with corruption) as he was/is a big part of the Stoney Creek community.
Plus Marston only won by like 800 votes last time.

Young dropped out of Ham Ctr? When did that happen? So it's NDP vs Green? Seems like no one wants to battle David!

My Predictions:
ADFW: Sweet CON
Ham CTR: Christopherson LIB (by thousands of votes)
HamE-SC: DiIanni LIB, close race
Ham Mount: Charlton NDP (by a lot)
NW-Glan: Who cares. Ugh... redistribute our ridings, please!!! But probably Conservative again as there is a HUGE Christian base in the Lincoln Township area.

There is no clear opportunity for a conservative majority. Polls done within days of a call are rarely indicitaive of the eventual outcome. In fact they have been completely contrary to the final outcome.

Harper has called the election because the clock was running out on him. Too many scandals were surfacing, the Canadaian economy is in decline, and an imminent 2008/09 budget deficit forced him to jump into this election now.

And the first few days have been rocky for the Conservative campaign, what with early morning 'war room' press conferences being unattended by major media, and ill-thought-out online 'bird poo' ads making the first week look like amateur hour. And, as far as the Green debate fiasco goes, the Harper optics are very poor - in a democratic election, would a real leader boycott a debate? I think you'll find most Canadians have no objection to her participation in the debate, and I predict the decision to exclude her will be revesed in the days to come.

The real test will be if the attack ads the Consevatives have been airing against Dion the past year stick in the voters' minds through the entire campaign. The Liberals are countering these ads heavily this week, and Dion is coming out stronger than expected thus far.

In addition, Layton is focusing his attacks solely on Harper and is ignoring the Liberals. This will ultimately work in favour of the Liberals, much as Layton's focussed attack on Martin benefitted the Conservatives last time round. And the Conservatives don't have Zacchareli to lob a grenade into the middle of this year's campaign either.

My local predictions for the election:

Ancaster - Dundas - Flamborough - Westdale
Gordon Guyatt NDP

Hamilton Centre
David Christopherson NDP

Hamilton East - Stoney Creek
Larry Di Ianni Liberal

Hamilton Mountain
Tyler Banham Liberal

Niagara West - Glanbrook
Dean Allison Conservative

And, in the end of it, we will have yet another minority government. What a waste of $400 million!

Di Ianni lost by 400 votes from Fred and Marston won by 400 against Valeri. So it should be interesting. Though a big part of the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek riding is the Stoney Creek side so Larry should do well. It’ll be a classic Hamilton East traditional union steel worker Marston verus Stoney Creek’s favourite son.

I wouldn't bet on Charlton. Tyler Banham was the former president of the youth wing of the Liberal Party so he has a lot of Liberal party backers. So I'm betting it'll be much closer.

The Liberals are searching for a replacement for Hamilton Centre. So they'll be a replacement.

Full disclosure: I'm not affiliated with any party, but my politics tend to be centre-left: economically progressive and socially libertarian. I generally vote NDP since I live in Hamilton Centre and Christopherson is a strong candidate.

Also, my experience is that a Liberal minority with an NDP opposition to keep them honest is the best kind of federal government.

That's possible, but I think it's more likely that they're actually seeking a renewed mandate while the stars are still aligned in their favour:

* The economy is holding but widely expected to slide into recession (watch rising unemployment and falling house prices, while our biggest trading partner continues to tank).

* So far they've managed to stonewall the ethics committee's investigation of their alleged fundraising violations, but they can't hold off forever.

* The three by-elections scheduled for later this month seemed likely to unseat the incumbent party.

Also, while Harper's personal approval is the highest of the major parties (around 50%), his party's approval is statistically the same as it was in January 2006. That is, after two and a half years, he hasn't managed to convince Canadians to give him a majority.

He might be able to pull it off via the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, but it's a long shot. It seems more likely that he's hoping to produce at least a new minority before the s**t hits the fan.

Here's why: as you say, Dion is very precarious. If he fails to improve his party's fortunes in this election, there's a very good chance the party will turf him and start looking for another leader. That essentially buys Harper another couple of years at the helm even if he only wins another minority, since the Liberals will once again be in no position to challenge him.

This situation only takes place if Dion loses an election. If Harper did nothing and let the opposition vote non-confidence some time next year or let his Parliament make it to his fixed election date, that election would likely be Dion's to lose.

It's a bold gamble, and though I don't like Harper's leadership style, I do admire how deftly he has managed parliament while he's been in power. It remains to be seen whether the other parties can hammer him enough in the next month to ratchet down his approval.

Stranger things have happened - don't forget David Peterson's disastrous snap election in 1990, which incredibly put Bob Rae's NDP in power for the next five years.

I am also in David Christopherson's riding, and I must say I am not at all impressed by his representation thus far.

I think Larry will win Hamilton East. I base this prediction partly on the fact that at 11am the past Sunday, a little over an hour after the election announcement I saw his crews putting up election signs. He wants this riding and he wants it bad!

I'm in Hamilton Centre riding as well. David will obviously win this riding until he quits.

I kinda miss the old Hamilton West riding. They should have Hamilton Centre as seperate perhaps merge it with Westdale. This might happen as Ontario is suppose to get an additional 17 ridings in the next election.

One of the reason why Harper likely called an early election is extactly that, 17 additional ridings in Ontario isn't good news for Harper.

And personally I have no use for Hollywood Larry.

Opps 10 additional ridings in Ontario, 7 additional ridings in BC and 4 additional ridings in Alberta I believe. Or something like that.

The ridings have not yet changed. We are still working with 308 electoral districts.

Amen, brother! Even a Liberal minority Gov't with a small Conservative opposition and NDP balance of power would be good!

Either way, Minority Gov'ts are the closing thing we have to Proportional Representation, so here's hoping for another one with a FOR REAL 4 year set term!

Interesting prediction for Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale. Having spent my formitve years (politics included) in that riding, it would seem a prediction of an NDP victory there is downright delusional.

Again, my comments regarding the timing of the election were in regard to internal pre-campaign polling, not the polls which have been publically released since.

I'll be skipping the vote this time.
I almost skipped last time, but this one takes the cake. Having an election just so one big money party machine can try to waste some of the other big money party machine's money is disgusting.

They all suck.

Great point! I had forgotten that. Does this election push that increase out to 2012?

^ Yes

The riding has changed a lot since you were a kid. Most notably, in the part that makes up the last part of its very long name. And Ancaster is not what it used to be. The Opus-Dei 'outing' today will also have a chilling effect on ex-Promise Keeper Sweet's campaign.

With the local Liberal association in relative disarray, look for Guyatt to make significant gains in this riding. I am going out on a limb and saying it'll be enough to pu thim over the heap. Canada is, after all, the home of the first-past-the-post system.

The wild card is the Greens and how much tread they can get during the campaign. Although support for the Greens does bleed from both sides of the spectrum, thus the real reason why both Harper and Layton balked at May's inclusion in the debate.