Quote:
Originally Posted by LosAngelesBeauty
Will this possibly change momentum? The idea of global peak oil ( www.peakoil.com) happening around 2010-2012? I'm dead serious. If it really does happen, how will it affect city development worldwide? How will it benefit or be detrimental to DTLA?
A brief video on YouTube about Global Peak Oil ($15 a gallon gas 18 months after peak oil begins).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMQd5nGEkr4
Any feedback would be appreciated...
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Sorry for the delay in response to your post - I'm in Mumbai on assignment for a total of three weeks, two having already passed and my access to the net for "frivolous" uses is somewhat limited.
I've been following this subject (peak oil) for some time now. Some suggest that the peak may have already occurred. Others believe it will certainly occur well before 2010-12. Still others say we have 15-30 years before it hits. Regardless of the disagreement of when it will happen, it is blatantly clear to me that it
will eventually occur - during most of our lifetimes - and that whenever it does we really won't know for sure until some time
after the actual peak. It's a complex issue and not entirely on topic here. I'll try to limit my comments to how it may affect L.A.
Most of our electrical generation comes from oil derivatives like natural gas, which will peak either shortly before or after oil. While they look cool and most of us love them here, highrises may become impractical post-peak. All those Medicis, Veros, Hikaris et al that are maligned by us would be much more livable if the power grid is unpredictable. I remember someone here a while back saying how hot it got in a highrise they were working in while the AC was off over the weekend. Not to mention endless flights of stairs, getting stuck in elevators regularly, etc. A major reason why great European cities like London and Paris that came into their own development-wise prior to wide scale exploitation of oil and derivatives took place are more horizontal in nature, with most old construction not exceeding 5-6 floors is that more than that would be just too much to climb/descend every time you needed to leave or return to your residence.
The end of cheap oil could very well kill hinterland suburbia as we know it because it relies on easily available fuel for commuting via inefficient private autos. That's why comments like this one:
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Originally Posted by JDRCRASH
^ ^ ^
Well, we could out-build Shanghai if we wanted to, if you think about it.
I mean we've got sooo much space for more suburbs in the Mojave Desert.
Then we could build up in the basin.
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seem so foolish and are completely lost on me. Sorry JDRCRASH...
The only region of Southern California that has any form of public transit other than buses and is a hub for what public transit does exist is downtown L.A. This should bode well for the hood. If the peak does occur around 2012 we have so very little time to build up our public transit into other dense portions of the city that are lacking, especially considering the glacial rate at which these projects meet fruition in our city. Our leaders are either oblivious or shortsighted or both in regard to peak oil. After it hits the energy required to construct such projects (and yes, construction is extremely energy intensive) will make them even more cost prohibitive than they are already.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDRCRASH
But here's something interesting about China:
In one decade, China has built the equivelant of the entire U.S. Interstate Highway System....in one decade!!!(although there's something fishy about it)
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Which is certainly helping to accelerate the peak.
In case anyone has forgotten, we also live in an arid region, dependent upon water from far flung sources being pumped for hundreds of miles using a huge amount of energy in the process. How reliable will water delivery be post peak? Keep in mind prior to large scale fossil fuel exploitation the population here was much smaller, the region only supporting and allowing a population that was sustainable from local sources of food production and water. In a lower energy future population trends may have to reverse if sufficient alternatives aren't found.
This will affect nearly every aspect of our lives and I could go on and on (I guess I already have) but I should stop here. Sorry for being so doom and gloom, but couldn't resist responding to LA Beauty's request.