Canadian Airport Thread II

[hollywoodcory]

Wonder if that means YYC could reclaim #3 spot.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Nicko999

It won't be long before being a top 10 busiest airport in the country.

People are just so fed up with YUL. They are hungry for alternatives especially considering YMX is hostage to ADM.

I, for one, will be avoiding YUL whenever I can.

I get the angst with YUL. Believe me. But #10 spot is currently held by YTZ, at over 2 million passengers/year.

You’re dreaming if you think YHU, with only domestic flights, will handle that kind of traffic.

Yes, the terminal building can handle 4 million pax. Doesn’t mean PD will invest the seats required to make it happen. Certainly not with YUL having a monopoly on international flights.

Just for context, YQB has never handled over 2 million passengers. And you think YHU will? Never. Not with the current restrictions it has.

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

Wonder if that means YYC could reclaim #3 spot.

Because of YHU? lol. Highly unlikely. This is nothing like the YUL/YMX split days. Domestic travel to/from Quebec is peanuts. YHU won’t dent YUL’s numbers in the slightest.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I get the angst with YUL. Believe me. But #10 spot is currently held by YTZ, at over 2 million passengers/year.

You’re dreaming if you think YHU, with only domestic flights, will handle that kind of traffic.

Yes, the terminal building can handle 4 million pax. Doesn’t mean PD will invest the seats required to make it happen. Certainly not with YUL having a monopoly on international flights.

Just for context, YQB has never handled over 2 million passengers. And you think YHU will? Never. Not with the current restrictions it has.



Because of YHU? lol. Highly unlikely. This is nothing like the YUL/YMX split days. Domestic travel to/from Quebec is peanuts. YHU won’t dent YUL’s numbers in the slightest.

If PD doesn't work out at YHU, I hope their shiny new terminal doesn't sit there empty lol

[BlaineN]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

Wonder if that means YYC could reclaim #3 spot.

It's not out of the realm of possibilities, but would be quite a few years away. If YHU catches on and continued to grow, it's something that could happen.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by BlaineN

It's not out of the realm of possibilities, but would be quite a few years away. If YHU catches on and continued to grow, it's something that could happen.

Its doubtful. Montreal became a real hub for AC just in the past 10 years with a focus on connecting North America to Europe. They have planes to grow passenger count by 30% over next 5 years in that city.

Air Transat and Porter work together in that market, and Transat is looking to push more Porter feed at YUL.

Even if you look at what both airports project, YUL will be adding more people than YYC projects it will add in next 10 years. YUL is starting a 7-10Billion capital project that will fix a lot of the issues people here are talking about, add in the REM, Montreal's growth will be fine.

Porter will likely do fine too at there airport, but they are just looking to have a competitive edge since going head to head against AC at YUL is tough (see WestJet).

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I get the angst with YUL. Believe me. But #10 spot is currently held by YTZ, at over 2 million passengers/year.

You’re dreaming if you think YHU, with only domestic flights, will handle that kind of traffic.

Yes, the terminal building can handle 4 million pax. Doesn’t mean PD will invest the seats required to make it happen. Certainly not with YUL having a monopoly on international flights.

Just for context, YQB has never handled over 2 million passengers. And you think YHU will? Never. Not with the current restrictions it has.

Because of YHU? lol. Highly unlikely. This is nothing like the YUL/YMX split days. Domestic travel to/from Quebec is peanuts. YHU won’t dent YUL’s numbers in the slightest.

I bet the YHU terminal was deliberately overbuilt for domestic-only ops in the hopes that the YHU airport authority, doing the dirty work for PD, at some point launches a court challenge to end the ADM's monopoly non-domestic flights for Greater Montreal. I'd be shocked if they didn't configure the terminal with this in mind to make it easy and low cost to add a customs area, perhaps with a small addition, and to install a movable wall to make one of the bag claim belts international.

Based on their current YHU schedule, Porter (after factoring in cancellations) will offer roughly 1.15 million seats at YHU for the full calendar year 2027. At an 80% LF, that'd translate into 920,000 pax handled. Add in Pascan and that's around 950K pax in full year 1. 950K pax puts it next in line behind YQR who currently come in at around 1.2 million pax/year, but above YQT who are around 800K/year.

So YHU will put an even smaller dent into YUL than YTZ puts into YYZ. It might cut 3 to 5 points of growth off of YUL's domestic numbers over the next couple of years, but it certainly won't cause YUL's traffic to suddenly drop.

Originally Posted by hehehe

If PD doesn't work out at YHU, I hope their shiny new terminal doesn't sit there empty lol

Well there's always Pascan with their half dozen flights a day. That would make for a lot of lonely loading bridges though, lol.

[Dominion301]

YOW's May pax stats are out and for the second month in a row transborder is up. It's also the first time ever for international to break the 30K mark in a month between May and October and the first time since March 2020 where YOW's 12 months rolling pax total is above 5 million.

Sector / May-25 / May-26 / % Change
Dom: 328,143 / 360,259 / +9.8%
TB: 50,566 / 52,928 / +4.7%
Int'l: 22,061 / 31,131 / +41.1% - with that gain, TS' "new" LGW route should be starting off with loads north of 82%
TTL: 400,770 / 444,318 / +10.9%

Sector / YTD 2025 / YTD 2026 / % Change
Dom: 1,349,991 / 1,442,738 / +6.9%
TB: 360,461 / 346,311 / -3.9%
Int'l: 255,204 / 319,241 / +25.1%
TTL: 1,965,656 / 2,108,290 / +7.3%

May % of traffic recovered vs 2019 / YTD vs 2019
Sector / May / YTD % recovered
Dom: 98.4% / 92.8%
TB: 94.9% / 102.4%
Int'l: 168.3% / 132.9%
TTL: 100.9% / 98.8% - I believe this is only the 2nd month thus far that traffic has been above pre-pandemic

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2024
Dom: 3,747,031 / +9.2%
TB: 712,161 / -4.0%
Int'l: 549,678 / +26.7% - projecting out to the end of 2026, it's now within the realm of possibility that international will break not just 1/2 million for the 1st time, but 600,000 too.
TTL: 5,008,870 / +8.7%

"new = returning after a 12 year hiatus.

[Dominion301]

YLW's Feb-May and Q1 2026 pax stats:

Month / 2025 / 2026 / % Change vs Prior Year

Jan. / 197,630 / 212,604 / +7.6%
Feb. / 191,204 / 205,148 / +7.3%
Mar. / 203,251 / 217,259 / +6.9%
Apr. / 161,952 / 179,110 / +10.6%
May / 169,283 / 186,032 / +9.9%

Q1 Total / 592,085 / 635,011 / +7.2%

YTD Total / 923,320 / 1,000,153 / +8.3%
________________________________________________________

YXE Feb-May 2026, Q1 and YTD totals:

Month / 2025 / 2026 / % Change vs Prior Year

Feb. / 123,962 / 113,152 / -8.7%
Mar. / 117,441 / 121,722 / +3.6%
Apr. / 118,085 / 123,096 / +4.2%
May / 124,278 / 129,739 / +4.4%

Q1 Total / 365,753 / 352,830 / -3.5%

YTD Total / 608,116 / 605,665 / -0.4%

[Dominion301]

YEGs March pax stats:

Sector / 2026 / 2025 / % Chg
Dom: 439,251 / 410,041 / +7.1%
TB : 73,338 / 87,550 / -16.2%
Int'l: 70,082 / 77,764 / -9.9%
TTL: 582,671 / 575,355 / +1.3%

FBOs: 46,396 / 57,080 / -18.7%

YTD:

Sector / 2026 / 2025 / % Chg
Dom: 1,242,084 / 1,180,535 / +5.2%
TB : 201,764 / 238,932 / -15.6%
Int'l: 211,357 / 230,924 / -8.5%
TTL: 1,655,205 / 1,650,391 / +0.3%

FBOs: 132,980 / 183,876 / -27.7%

[Calfan12]

Someone posted on Reddit that Calgary YYC Airport Customs had “very long lines” 1 day ago- yes it’s Summer 2026 travel ✈️ season + not too surprising✅.

Welcome To Canada to all of them & Cheers from Edmonton YEG….. hope they Enjoy World Cup Of Soccer ⚽️ tournament over the next few weeks/ the Calgary Stampede in July & various Festivals in this country & have a great time in Alberta too.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/comment...ational-airport-eia-yeg.29564%2Fpage-305

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

I bet the YHU terminal was deliberately overbuilt for domestic-only ops in the hopes that the YHU airport authority, doing the dirty work for PD, at some point launches a court challenge to end the ADM's monopoly non-domestic flights for Greater Montreal. I'd be shocked if they didn't configure the terminal with this in mind to make it easy and low cost to add a customs area, perhaps with a small addition, and to install a movable wall to make one of the bag claim belts international.

Maybe. It's a big gamble. Even if a lawsuit like that were to happen, it would take years for it to be settled in court, and a favorable result is by no means a guarantee. I'm of the opinion that it's an ironclad contract between Transport Canada and ADM. Don't think there is much YHU can do about it.

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Based on their current YHU schedule, Porter (after factoring in cancellations) will offer roughly 1.15 million seats at YHU for the full calendar year 2027. At an 80% LF, that'd translate into 920,000 pax handled. Add in Pascan and that's around 950K pax in full year 1. 950K pax puts it next in line behind YQR who currently come in at around 1.2 million pax/year, but above YQT who are around 800K/year.

I think you're being overfly generous with your forecasts.

Of those 1.15 million seats, I think at least a quarter will get canceled, due to low demand, and the rest won't get filled at an 80% year round average. More like 50-60%.

That gives you a pax count of ~520,000, at most. With the current restrictions, and PD's current state of affairs, I think YHU will hover around that number for the foreseeable future. Of course, this is assuming PD doesn't abandon YHU altogether if/when they sell the building, that is. That scenario is more plausible than YHU getting international flights, in my opinion.

As I've been saying all along, Montreal is not Toronto, and YHU is no YTZ. It doesn't command the yield premium needed to make it worth while to serve 2 airports in the same city. Porter will quickly realize this. Pretty sure they know it already.

All the hoopla you are seeing now is in order to sell the building. Once that is done, watch the flights get canceled one after the other.........

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Maybe. It's a big gamble. Even if a lawsuit like that were to happen, it would take years for it to be settled in court, and a favorable result is by no means a guarantee. I'm of the opinion that it's an ironclad contract between Transport Canada and ADM. Don't think there is much YHU can do about it.



I think you're being overfly generous with your forecasts.

Of those 1.15 million seats, I think at least a quarter will get canceled, due to low demand, and the rest won't get filled at an 80% year round average. More like 50-60%.

That gives you a pax count of ~520,000, at most. With the current restrictions, and PD's current state of affairs, I think YHU will hover around that number for the foreseeable future. Of course, this is assuming PD doesn't abandon YHU altogether if/when they sell the building, that is. That scenario is more plausible than YHU getting international flights, in my opinion.

As I've been saying all along, Montreal is not Toronto, and YHU is no YTZ. It doesn't command the yield premium needed to make it worth while to serve 2 airports in the same city. Porter will quickly realize this. Pretty sure they know it already.

All the hoopla you are seeing now is in order to sell the building. Once that is done, watch the flights get canceled one after the other.........

The 1.15 million back of the napkin calculation I made was based on the currently published schedules of both the seasonal routes, the routes that will be seasonally reduced in the fall (YHM & YVR) and the year-round routes, minus 2% for the typical weather and maintenance cancellations. I just took 80% as a quick and dirty calculation but it's probably going to be more like 80% on the E2 routes and 60% on the Dash 8 routes. YHZ is a mix of E95 and DH4. I'd be more generous than 520K for 2027. It'll probably be more like 775K, including Pascan. It also assumes nobody else shows up in the next year. I could see AC in the next year adding 4 or 5 daily each to YYZ and YTZ to be another thorn in the side of Porter.

I'm also more optimistic that PD won't abandon YHU, but they won't come anywhere near 4 million ever...at least not without customs. YUL's only on pace for 6.9 million domestic pax in 2026, demonstrating the Quebecers' lack of propensity to travel domestically to the same degree as the ROC and the ROC travelling to Quebec. YUL handles less than 20% more domestic pax than YEG and less than double the domestic traffic of any of YOW, YWG, and YHZ despite handline 3 to 5 times the traffic of any of them...and the fact 1/3 of YOW's catchment is within Quebec too. Mind you in the cases of YEG, YOW and YWG, a much larger percentage of domestic pax are connecting at another hub onwards to a transborder or international destination than would ever occur at YUL so the numbers are skewed somewhat because of that. Everywhere but YOW is skewed too because rail service outside the Corridor is statistically insignificant. Anyhow that's just a long winded way of saying YHU ever surpassing 2 million domestic only pax is highly unlikely.

[Nouvellecosse]

It does make me wonder how viable the new airport is. Montreal is a much smaller air market with Trudeau having less than 1/2 the passengers of Pearson. It isn't even the 2nd busiest airport in the country despite Montreal being a much larger metro area than Vancouver. And Trudeau has a rail link under construction and St. Hubert isn't even that much closer to downtown. It seems like something that would make more sense in a city whose main airport was overflowing with a high passenger volume.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by hehehe

If PD doesn't work out at YHU, I hope their shiny new terminal doesn't sit there empty lol

If the Deluce family follows their usual MO, they will try to sell the terminal off to fund PD.

[Nick]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

It does make me wonder how viable the new airport is. Montreal is a much smaller air market with Trudeau having less than 1/2 the passengers of Pearson. It isn't even the 2nd busiest airport in the country despite Montreal being a much larger metro area than Vancouver. And Trudeau has a rail link under construction and St. Hubert isn't even that much closer to downtown. It seems like something that would make more sense in a city whose main airport was overflowing with a high passenger volume.

I'm by no means an expert in Montreal travel patterns. This, for me, seems more like a Vancouver/Abbotsford situation where Abbotsford serves the Fraser Valley and Surrey for those who don't want to deal with a busy airport and bridges/tunnels. YHU seems like it serves the South Shore. There are lots of people in both regions that don't go into busier parts of the city and would be more than happy to go to a smaller airport closer to where they live.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Nick

I'm by no means an expert in Montreal travel patterns. This, for me, seems more like a Vancouver/Abbotsford situation where Abbotsford serves the Fraser Valley and Surrey for those who don't want to deal with a busy airport and bridges/tunnels. YHU seems like it serves the South Shore. There are lots of people in both regions that don't go into busier parts of the city and would be more than happy to go to a smaller airport closer to where they live.

To me that seems more similar to Pearson and Hamilton Munro since in both cases, the airports are around 62km apart. Whereas St. Hubert to Trudeau are only about 26km apart while Abbotsford isn't even in Metro Vancouver. I'm guessing it can still work when the smaller airport offers plenty of destinations, but I wonder how efficient it is to duplicate flights that are already offered relatively nearby. If it only serves a much smaller number of destinations, it wouldn't really matter how convenient it is to get to since most people flying out of the metro area still have to go to the larger airport. Well, unless they consider it more convenient to have to take a connecting flight rather than fly direct I suppose. In that case, all it would really need is service to a few major hubs.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

To me that seems more similar to Pearson and Hamilton Munro since in both cases, the airports are around 62km apart. Whereas St. Hubert to Trudeau are only about 26km apart while Abbotsford isn't even in Metro Vancouver. I'm guessing it can still work when the smaller airport offers plenty of destinations, but I wonder how efficient it is to duplicate flights that are already offered relatively nearby. If it only serves a much smaller number of destinations, it wouldn't really matter how convenient it is to get to since most people flying out of the metro area still have to go to the larger airport. Well, unless they consider it more convenient to have to take a connecting flight rather than fly direct I suppose. In that case, all it would really need is service to a few major hubs.

The south shore is about 900,000 people so its pulling from a large base and has a decent size industrial base. Certain parts are also getting large redevelopments and high rise towers.

But I think the biggest pull is, Porter likley knows it can't beat AC at Trudeau. They need something else to make Montreal work for the business community and are banking on this.

The real question is: Is this is a better shot at winning over Montreal for Porter or is doubling down at Trudeau?

[Nicko999]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

YMX hasn't even had a terminal for 10 years or more.

True but a smaller terminal with possibility of future expansions can be built for way cheaper than the billions poured at YUL. Rest of the infrastructure is there.

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

Even if you look at what both airports project, YUL will be adding more people than YYC projects it will add in next 10 years. YUL is starting a 7-10Billion capital project that will fix a lot of the issues people here are talking about, add in the REM, Montreal's growth will be fine.

It will not fix a lot of issues. YUL's problem is space and you cannot create it out of thin air. The REM will help but let's get real, it will decrease the car traffic by 10% at most which is far from enough to alleviate things.

[Calfan12]

ETIHAD MOVES FORWARD CALGARY LAUNCH TO LATE-OCT 2026

Etihad Airways in recent schedule update accelerated planned Abu Dhabi – Calgary route by a week, with the inaugural flight now scheduled on 25COT26, instead of 03NOV26. The airline operates this route 4 times weekly with 787-9.

Schedule below focuses on the period of 01NOV26 – 13MAR27.

EY029 AUH0225 – 0600YYC 789 x135
EY030 YYC1200 – 1255+1AUH 789 x135

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260618-eynw26yyc

[Calfan12]

KLM PLANS A350-900 TORONTO FLIGHTS FROM LATE-SEP 2026

KLM Royal Dutch Airlines as of Thursday 18JUN26 filed preliminary operations for its new Airbus A350-900 aircraft, with the configuration of J34W26Y271. Initially the A350 will operate Amsterdam – Toronto Pearson KL691/692 service between 27SEP26 and 29NOV26, 5 weekly round-trip flights.

For the time being, Business Class is not available for reservations. Schedule below focuses on the month of November 2026.

KL691 AMS1330 – 1540YYZ 359 x16
KL691 AMS1330 – 1540YYZ 781 16
KL695 AMS1650 – 1915YYZ 330 x16

KL692 YYZ1755 – 0705+1AMS 359 x16
KL692 YYZ1755 – 0705+1AMS 781 16
KL696 YYZ2115 – 1045+1AMS 330 x16

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260618-klsep26359