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Originally Posted by Dominion301
I bet the YHU terminal was deliberately overbuilt for domestic-only ops in the hopes that the YHU airport authority, doing the dirty work for PD, at some point launches a court challenge to end the ADM's monopoly non-domestic flights for Greater Montreal. I'd be shocked if they didn't configure the terminal with this in mind to make it easy and low cost to add a customs area, perhaps with a small addition, and to install a movable wall to make one of the bag claim belts international.
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Maybe. It's a big gamble. Even if a lawsuit like that were to happen, it would take years for it to be settled in court, and a favorable result is by no means a guarantee. I'm of the opinion that it's an ironclad contract between Transport Canada and ADM. Don't think there is much YHU can do about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dominion301
Based on their current YHU schedule, Porter (after factoring in cancellations) will offer roughly 1.15 million seats at YHU for the full calendar year 2027. At an 80% LF, that'd translate into 920,000 pax handled. Add in Pascan and that's around 950K pax in full year 1. 950K pax puts it next in line behind YQR who currently come in at around 1.2 million pax/year, but above YQT who are around 800K/year.
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I think you're being overfly generous with your forecasts.
Of those 1.15 million seats, I think at least a quarter will get canceled, due to low demand, and the rest won't get filled at an 80% year round average. More like 50-60%.
That gives you a pax count of ~520,000, at most. With the current restrictions, and PD's current state of affairs, I think YHU will hover around that number for the foreseeable future. Of course, this is assuming PD doesn't abandon YHU altogether if/when they sell the building, that is. That scenario is more plausible than YHU getting international flights, in my opinion.
As I've been saying all along, Montreal is not Toronto, and
YHU is no YTZ. It doesn't command the yield premium needed to make it worth while to serve 2 airports in the same city. Porter will quickly realize this. Pretty sure they know it already.
All the hoopla you are seeing now is in order to sell the building. Once that is done, watch the flights get canceled one after the other.........
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