Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I presume all of these are Ward 2? Seems like a relatively decent crop. Gotta wonder if any decide to run at large instead, with Harris retiring.

Merrithew got an impressive 32% in 2016 as as incumbent (with two votes per person he was on about 64% of ballots) and didn't run again in 2021.

I heard Dempsey was considering running for something, possibly mayor, which I thought seemed a little ambitious. He lost Portland-Simonds 54-38, a little better than the SJ-area PC baseline in 2024.

Jones was the Liberal candidate in Portland-Simonds in 2020, losing 55-29, doing about as well as the Liberal baseline in that election around here.

Cullen doesn't have any electoral experience AFAIK, but seems broadly popular in the North End. The other three seem more Millidgeville-y/upscale than him, which could give him a lane to swim in.

Not sure about wards but I was told at least one of them is running for an "at large" seat (sorry, can't remember who....Jones maybe?).

I believe Dan Cullan grew up on the Westside and he is in the process of opening a second store in South Bay. I was told he is going to run there so he'd be Ward 1.

Jones lives in Millidgeville and I was told Dempsey lives in Drury Cove (Ward 4 I think?)......not sure about Merrithew (Millidgeville?). If Jones runs at large that would leave Merrithew as the Ward 2 candidate of the group.

I think Dempsey overperformed if anything in Portland-Simonds given John Dornan's high profile combined with Blaine Higgs' unpopularity. I had a conversation with Dempsey during the election and he struck me as a very credible and serious person. He certainly has the most impressive CV of the bunch......almost to the point of me wondering if he's not over qualified for SJ common council.

[sailor734]

Looks like Fredericton will have a new mayor after the May election.

https://tj.news/fredericton-west/mayor-rogers-wont-reoffer-ive-accomplished-what-i-set-out-to-do

From the TJ article

Mayor Rogers won't reoffer: 'I've accomplished what I set out to do'
City's first woman mayor says she's 'ready to serve the community in other ways'

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by gtsoc

Even before nominations are open, Saint John might see its first candidate drop out.

Andrew Nowlan is getting absolutely trashed on the local Facebook groups for his past history and actions towards others.. not painting him in the best light.

A week after declaring his candidacy, Andrew Nowlan has dropped out.

Due to the blatant attacks on my son’s mother, which are now causing real harm and trauma in my son’s life, I am stepping back and rescinding my candidacy.

I can take whatever scrutiny or criticism comes my way — that was never the issue. But when attacks cross the line and begin affecting a child’s well-being, I will not tolerate it. My responsibility as a father comes first.

This is exactly what is wrong with politics today. The same people are re-elected over and over, yet everyone expects different results. People constantly demand change, but when someone actually steps forward to challenge the status quo, the response is to tear them down rather than engage honestly.

Anyone who contributed to these attacks should be ashamed of themselves. I never anticipated this level of ruthlessness, especially when innocent people are caught in the crossfire.

To those who genuinely care about the future of this community, I wish you well. What we are witnessing is how real change is so often held back — not by a lack of ideas or willingness, but by the very behavior people claim they want to see end.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

The upcoming municipal elections is starting to remind me of the 2021 municipal elections where a lot of incumbents either retire or lose. Change could be good.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Not sure about wards but I was told at least one of them is running for an "at large" seat (sorry, can't remember who....Jones maybe?).

I believe Dan Cullan grew up on the Westside and he is in the process of opening a second store in South Bay. I was told he is going to run there so he'd be Ward 1.

Jones lives in Millidgeville and I was told Dempsey lives in Drury Cove (Ward 4 I think?)......not sure about Merrithew (Millidgeville?). If Jones runs at large that would leave Merrithew as the Ward 2 candidate of the group.

I think Dempsey overperformed if anything in Portland-Simonds given John Dornan's high profile combined with Blaine Higgs' unpopularity. I had a conversation with Dempsey during the election and he struck me as a very credible and serious person. He certainly has the most impressive CV of the bunch......almost to the point of me wondering if he's not over qualified for SJ common council.

Thanks for the clarity.

I heard a couple of people bring up the Cullen candidacy and indeed he seems to be running in Ward 1. Without knowing the guy or his platform, I assume he's a huge upgrade from Killen.

Drury Cove is in Ward 4, true. It really should be in Ward 2 despite being barely contiguous to it. With population growth in the city concentrated in Millidgeville, the far east side, and somewhat uptown/south, we probably need to rejigger ward boundaries (as does Moncton) but I don't know if there's a mechanism for that.

Re: Dempsey's 2024 performance, he did about as well %-wise vs the city at large compared to 2020 numbers as the other candidates. The caveat is he was running against a star Liberal candidate, where TikTok-what's-her-name in Lancaster did basically as well as Dempsey did against a more generic Liberal. Maybe that means Lancaster has a higher PC floor than Portland-Simonds, or maybe it means Dempsey held up better vs Dornan than expected. Most likely both.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Thanks for the clarity.

I heard a couple of people bring up the Cullen candidacy and indeed he seems to be running in Ward 1. Without knowing the guy or his platform, I assume he's a huge upgrade from Killen.

Drury Cove is in Ward 4, true. It really should be in Ward 2 despite being barely contiguous to it. With population growth in the city concentrated in Millidgeville, the far east side, and somewhat uptown/south, we probably need to rejigger ward boundaries (as does Moncton) but I don't know if there's a mechanism for that.

Re: Dempsey's 2024 performance, he did about as well %-wise vs the city at large compared to 2020 numbers as the other candidates. The caveat is he was running against a star Liberal candidate, where TikTok-what's-her-name in Lancaster did basically as well as Dempsey did against a more generic Liberal. Maybe that means Lancaster has a higher PC floor than Portland-Simonds, or maybe it means Dempsey held up better vs Dornan than expected. Most likely both.

I thought Dempsey was a pretty strong candidate and actually expected him to do a little better than he did. I put it down to two factors. One was Dornan's name recognition and high profile. He worked hard during the campaign and was a very strong candidate. He was also running for the side that had the momentum.

The other factor Trevor Holder was very popular personally in the riding and a significant number of his supporters were upset with Higgs.

[paperplane]

From Anne McShane's Facebook:

Mayor
Mayor Donna Noade Reardon
Barry Ogden
Blaine Harris
Andrew Nowlan (now dropped)

At Large
Gary Sullivan
Andrew Miller (or ward 3?)
David Merrithew ? (Or ward 4?)

Ward 1
Greg Norton ?
Sherri Colwell-McCavour ?
Joe Vautour ?

Ward 2
John MacKenzie
Wilson 4 Saint John - Russell Wilson

Ward 3
Gerry Lowe ?
Mariah Darling ?
Andrew Miller (or at large?)
Eric Savoie
Ryan Moore
Bryan Randall Wilson

Ward 4
Paula Radwan-Donovan ?
Phil Comeau
David Merrithew ? (Or at large?)

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by paperplane

From Anne McShane's Facebook:

Mayor
Mayor Donna Noade Reardon
Barry Ogden
Blaine Harris
Andrew Nowlan (now dropped)

At Large
Gary Sullivan
Andrew Miller (or ward 3?)
David Merrithew ? (Or ward 4?)

Ward 1
Greg Norton ?
Sherri Colwell-McCavour ?
Joe Vautour ?

Ward 2
John MacKenzie
Wilson 4 Saint John - Russell Wilson

Ward 3
Gerry Lowe ?
Mariah Darling ?
Andrew Miller (or at large?)
Eric Savoie
Ryan Moore
Bryan Randall Wilson

Ward 4
Paula Radwan-Donovan ?
Phil Comeau
David Merrithew ? (Or at large?)

If that’s all we have running for mayor, that’s just sad. I think mayor Reardon has been a completely underwhelming mayor that seems to favour the Uptown and Central Peninsular areas to the rest of the city. I was especially dissatisfied with mayor Reardon, because when she was running for mayor she actually talked about how the West Side was cut off from the rest of the city and the neighbourhood bisected by the construction of the Saint John Throughway…


Yet… here we are 5 years later and what has she or her council done to better connect the West Side with the rest of the city? Not a single pedestrian overpass has been constructed to better connect with the West Side across the the throughway, and next to nothing has been done to better connect the Lower West Side to nearby Uptown Saint John across the harbour.

The city and other Uptown elites will try and say the upgrades to the Harbour Passage around Wolastoq Park will improve the connection between the Lower West and Uptown Saint John, but it won’t make the trip any quicker, and a trail improved by Saint John Cycling already exists where they plan to spend millions extending the harbour passage.

I’d rather have that money go towards a better transit system, or buying some bikes/ bike stations for the start of a city bike sharing program.

Surely there’s posters on these forums who could be a better mayor than these lousy boomers?

I’ll gladly vote for Reardon again if it means voting against Barry Ogden.

Nonetheless, I’d much rather vote for an younger, more optimistic mayoral candidate than Mayor Reardon… let a lone the rapidly declining nitwit that spent 3.5 million on a non floating ship who thinks tacky murals and bright paint on old houses will solve all the systemic problems that have plagued this city for decades, including people like him “moving away” from the city to places like Quispamsis, despite continuing to work in the city.

Saint John needs a mayor that fights for systemic change and challenges council and city staff to rise to the occasion. Like him or not, Don Darling was an energetic mayor that did a lot to raise the profile of Saint John, and he’d likely have gotten along a lot better with Susan Holt’s Liberals than Blaine Higgs’s “Progressive” Conservatives. From what I’ve heard about Mayor Reardon’s personal politics, she’s a conservative, and probably not the best type of Saint John mayor to get along with the provincial Liberals. Meanwhile, Rothesay and Quispamsis’s councils have cozied up with Susan Holt’s Liberals and are making the Liberals see their KV suburbs as ridings they need to keep happy.

Saint John won’t be doing itself any favours reelecting Reardon and much of the same council for another term. We really need a council and mayor that think bigger and focus huge efforts on improving the relationship between the city of Saint John and the government of New Brunswick. (And the federal government for that matter)

I really hope I don’t have to vote for Reardon again, but I will, if Barry Ogden and Blaine Harris are the other candidates. I’ll maybe vote for Mohamed Elazab if he has some serious momentum behind his campaign. What I’m really worried about in this election is a split vote that leads to Barry Ogden getting in with something like 30% of the vote or less.

NB municipal elections should use ranked choice voting, especially since there’s no parties which can split the vote even more than in provincial and federal elections.

[adamuptownsj]

Bryan Randall Wilson is a local activist and trail builder. He came 8th with 4% in the low turnout 2024 byelection vs Darling. ***EDITED

Ryan Moore came second (23% to 32%) in the low turnout 2024 byelection vs Darling. Director of Fundraising for the Liberals per his LinkedIn. That makes two Liberal backroom people in Ward 3 (Allaby being the other).

Phil Comeau, president of the NB Paramedic Association, has an electoral record.
2014 provincial: Saint John East as NDP, 3rd place (19%)
2016 municipal: At-large, 3rd place (18%/36% depending on how you want to count)
2020 provincial: Saint John East as Liberal, 2nd place (26%)

Andrew Miller seems to have run a few small tech-oriented companies and served on PAC in the 2010s.

Joe Vautour... presumably the recently-retired fire department captain?

Sherri Colwell-McCavour seems to be a Lorneville activist and a recently-retired Bell Aliant analyst.

[sailor734]

I could well be wrong but I was under the impression that Merrithew was Millidgeville and thus Ward 2. If both he and Dempsey are in Ward 4 I suspect one of them might well run for an at large seat.
That would leave Tim Jones as the Ward 2 candidate for the group and Dan Cullen in Ward 1.

I say group as I think these four would be running as a kind of loose alliance and would probably try to avoid competing head to head with each other for a seat.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I could well be wrong but I was under the impression that Merrithew was Millidgeville and thus Ward 2. If both he and Dempsey are in Ward 4 I suspect one of them might well run for an at large seat.
That would leave Tim Jones as the Ward 2 candidate for the group and Dan Cullen in Ward 1.

I say group as I think these four would be running as a kind of loose alliance and would probably try to avoid competing head to head with each other for a seat.

Obviously he could have moved since then, but Merrithew represented Ward 4 the last time he was elected.

[MonctonRad]

Here is the rogue's gallery running for Moncton mayor:



L-R Shawn Crossman, Charles leger and Brian Murphy

Two current city councilors and a former city councilor, mayor and MP.

I think all three would be capable choices.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Here is the rogue's gallery running for Moncton mayor:



L-R Shawn Crossman, Charles leger and Brian Murphy

Two current city councilors and a former city councilor, mayor and MP.

I think all three would be capable choices.

Looks like Moncton has a lot more choice than SJ has....at least so far.

[paperplane]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Bryan Randall Wilson is the guy who wanders around with the fridge on his back, I believe.

Bryan Wilson has run for Council before, he's a SJ activist, involved in Coastal Link Trail, SJ Tool Library, etc.

Fridge guy is Jesse Wright.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by paperplane

Bryan Wilson has run for Council before, he's a SJ activist, involved in Coastal Link Trail, SJ Tool Library, etc.

Fridge guy is Jesse Wright.

Edited original post. Thanks.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Could this Eric Savoie guy just run for mayor instead please? I know it’s maybe a bigger — than going for the ward 3 seat, but we literally have zero positive and energetic mayoral candidates at the moment, and ward 3 has to be the hardest seat to win in Saint John, especially this upcoming election based on the candidates list Adam posted. One of Savoie or Miller might have a better chance running against Reardon and Ogden than running against each other for the Ward 3 seat.

Mr. Savoie’s connections with the NB Liberals and federal Liberals could be very beneficial to Saint John… and let’s be real, who would Don Dom rather deal with…Mayor Savoie or Mayor Reardon/Ogden?

Compare this post to posts we’ve seen from Barry Ogden… or to the lack of posts/ lack of civic engagement displayed by Mayor Reardon, and I’d say a lot of people could be convinced to vote for Eric Savoie as mayor.




Do Mayor Reardon or Barry Ogden plan to have campaign websites like Mr. Savoie has created for his council run? That’s the type of serious candidate Saint John needs.

You know who does still have a campaign website though? 👀

https://nbliberal.ca/team-member/david-alston/

For all those out there that are considering running for mayor of Saint John… please consider it harder lol

This city needs more positive, constructive candidates for mayor than we have at the moment. This election is very winnable for someone that runs a stronger and more exciting campaign than Reardon and Ogden, which honestly shouldn’t be very hard.

This election won’t be won in the debates, as almost no one watches those. Instead, it will be won on social media and in our neighbourhoods as the candidates and their canvassers go door to door making their case to voters.

[Ire Narissis]

I went to high school with Eric; he's a principled guy who I think could do well in municipal politics.

But I also think running for council first to get his foot in the door is probably a better strategy for him than showing up out of nowhere to contest for mayor.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Ire Narissis

I went to high school with Eric; he's a principled guy who I think could do well in municipal politics.

But I also think running for council first to get his foot in the door is probably a better strategy for him than showing up out of nowhere to contest for mayor.

It's probably the safer strategy, but not sure if it's the better or smarter strategy. This election could be quite a unique opportunity for a dark horse candidate to swoop in and make Reardon and Ogden seem like two very out of touch boomers that simply don't meet the moment. This is an especially important election, and Saint John clearly needs better municipal leadership.

I don't know Eric Savoie personally like you do, but I do know he's very well connected within the provincial Liberals and federal Liberals... he was right there beside Mark Carney when he made a stop in the Port City on his meteoric rise to the Prime Minister's Office.

As the current mayoral field stands, I think Savoie would have about as good of a chance at the mayor's office as he will for the Ward 3 seat (the hardest seat to win on council).

Reardon and Ogden are simply not strong candidates, and not nearly as politically connected with the governing Liberals as Eric Savoie is. I know our municipal politics are supposed to be "non partisan", but I think the guy would have a tonne of support from Liberals in the Saint John in a run for mayor, and that support would really show up on the campaign trail and door to door canvasing.

Again, I think David Alston could be one of the better options, if he could be convinced to run, but maybe he sees the mayors as more of a hassle than an opportunity. Saint Johners are a very tough bunch to please, and I don't blame anyone not wanting to run for the mayor's job.

Still, the mayors office is a very important position with more power and influence on our municipal governance than many people seem to think (because they don’t vote), and I truly hope we see some higher quality candidates than the likes of Donna Reardon and Barry Ogden.

Savoie and Miller (both running in Ward 3) seem to be the two currently known candidates for council that would be best suited to step up and run for mayor instead.

If we really have no quality candidates announce their intentions to run for mayor, I'd really like to see one of Savoie or Miller step up and run for mayor, as I think they'd both have a very solid chance at winning. Moreover, Ward 3 seats are always very tight races, so even though Savoie and Miller are arguably the two highest quality candidates running for the Ward 3 seats, it might be difficult for them to both win seats.

Even though I don't live in the ward, I'd really love to see Bryan Wilson get on council, but I think his chances are quite slim with both Savoie and Miller running (along with both incumbents).

The mayors office could very well be the smarter bet for one of Savoie or Miller, as I don't think many would be surprised if one or even both of them lost to incumbents Lowe and/or Darling.


_______________


I don't know if you still talk to Eric, Ire Narissis, but if you do, please tell him EnvisionSaintJohn from Skyscraperpage.com forum would like to put his name at the top of the SSP poll for the Saint John Mayoral Race.

So far, my top of the ballot choices, Susan Holt, and Mark Carney, two candidates with essentially zero legislative experience, went on to win the SSP polls and their respective elections... I'd really like to go 3/3... and I think Eric Savoie might just be the best person for the job!

[bingun]

A few days late, but Paul Dempsey is confirmed for Ward 4.

[sailor734]

^ Well, if David Merrithew does decide to offer I'd say this increases the odds it will be for an "at large" seat. (assuming he is still a ward 4 resident)