Statistics Canada Reports II

[ssiguy]

I checked Statscan and the country grew by 390k between Q3/24 & Q3/25 which is when these CMA stats would cover. The country grew by 390k, roughly 1%. BC has the lowest rate while Alberta was the clear winner. Even if Toronto and Montreal grew at only half the national rate, that would still give them pop increases of 37k and 23k respectively which is magnitude higher than your 10k and 5k estimates.

Anyway, it's fun for us nerds to do the demographic guessing game but we will all find out on Monday.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I checked Statscan and the country grew by 390k between Q3/24 & Q3/25 which is when these CMA stats would cover. The country grew by 390k, roughly 1%. BC has the lowest rate while Alberta was the clear winner. Even if Toronto and Montreal grew at only half the national rate, that would still give them pop increases of 37k and 23k respectively which is magnitude higher than your 10k and 5k estimates.

Anyway, it's fun for us nerds to do the demographic guessing game but we will all find out on Monday.

Always fun Many of us numbers nerds, these are the most exciting days.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I checked Statscan and the country grew by 390k between Q3/24 & Q3/25 which is when these CMA stats would cover. The country grew by 390k, roughly 1%. BC has the lowest rate while Alberta was the clear winner. Even if Toronto and Montreal grew at only half the national rate, that would still give them pop increases of 37k and 23k respectively which is magnitude higher than your 10k and 5k estimates.

Anyway, it's fun for us nerds to do the demographic guessing game but we will all find out on Monday.

You're probably right. If the country was still growing strong Q3 2024 to Q3 2025, the cities will show reasonably growth. Q3 2025 to Q3 2026 will be the interesting numbers.

[rdaner]

Interesting! One question: Toronto had about 70,000 new units opening during this period. How is that captured in the guesses? Thanks!

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by rdaner

Interesting! One question: Toronto had about 70,000 new units opening during this period. How is that captured in the guesses? Thanks!

It's a tough one being that the majority will be apartment/condo towers and depending on how full each building became and how long it took to fill the buildings will help us guess the growth.

Just curious where the number of 70,000 new units comes from? I'm not disagreeing with the figure, but more curious. Looking at housing starts over the previous three years, it seems that around 40-50,000 new units should have come on line during that period. Of course it's hard to tell when units that started, were finished, and during which months they finished etc...

45,109 2022
47,428 2023
37,718 2024

I'm very intrigued by the upcoming numbers.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by DavidK93

Here's my predictions for the large metros.

Toronto -10,000
Montreal -10,000
Vancouver +/- 0
Calgary +20,000
Ottawa -5,000
Edmonton+10,000

Calgary will probably see the biggest gain because they've had strong inter-provincial migration and on the international immigration side far less non-permanent residents. Edmonton will be in similar shape. It's the inter-provincial numbers that will keep those two cities in the growth column. Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal have relied heavily on international immigration with a really high percentage of non-permanent residents, but Vancouver will weather the drop a bit better and will come out somewhere around even.

Montreal is not going to lose more people than Vancouver. A huge percentage of the temporary students and workers are South Asian. Vancouver and Toronto have massive South Asian communities, far more than Montreal. Considering many of those people are being forced to return to their countries, it will definitely be Vancouver and Toronto experiencing the bulk of the loss of population.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Montreal is not going to lose more people than Vancouver. A huge percentage of the temporary students and workers are South Asian. Vancouver and Toronto have massive South Asian communities, far more than Montreal. Considering many of those people are being forced to return to their countries, it will definitely be Vancouver and Toronto experiencing the bulk of the loss of population.

Yup. I expect this read to show negative only in Toronto and Vancouver.

The 2026 estimates though? I expect carnage across a wider spectrum.

[LikesBikes]

The thing with Vancouver though is if it actually got it's housing situation together then there'd be a lot more internal migration there. There are quite a few people I know who would want to live there, or BC in general, but can't or choose not to because of the cost.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Montreal is not going to lose more people than Vancouver. A huge percentage of the temporary students and workers are South Asian. Vancouver and Toronto have massive South Asian communities, far more than Montreal. Considering many of those people are being forced to return to their countries, it will definitely be Vancouver and Toronto experiencing the bulk of the loss of population.

Keep in mind that even though Van has a bit higher percentage of foreign students, Montreal had higher percentages overall of NPR's over the past two years. I wouldn't be surprised to see Montreal have slower growth than Vancouver in these upcoming numbers and for 2025-2026 numbers.
That said if Vancouver had slower growth, I wouldn't be shocked either.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Keep in mind that even though Van has a bit higher percentage of foreign students, Montreal had higher percentages overall of NPR's over the past two years. I wouldn't be surprised to see Montreal have slower growth than Vancouver in these upcoming numbers and for 2025-2026 numbers.
That said if Vancouver had slower growth, I wouldn't be shocked either.

Canada lost over 75,000 people from July 1 to October 1 this year. This will probably continue into 2026. Judging by provincial population estimates, Ontario (-67,000) and BC (-14,300) will both lose population for the 2nd half of 2025. Quebec had literally no net change, while Alberta was the only province to have an increase in population (+11,500).

source; https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

[svlt]

Originally Posted by LikesBikes

The thing with Vancouver though is if it actually got it's housing situation together then there'd be a lot more internal migration there. There are quite a few people I know who would want to live there, or BC in general, but can't or choose not to because of the cost.

It's precisely because everyone wants to live there being why the cost is so enormously high so it's a chicken before the egg problem.

[ssiguy]

I thought the CMA/CA estimates were coming out today?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I thought the CMA/CA estimates were coming out today?

It's been noted here several times that they come out on the 14th. Here's the Statistics Canada release schedule.

[ssiguy]

^^^Guess that's what I get for skipping all those high school math classes. Thanks for letting me know and hopefully I can remember that for the next 2 days but at 61, one never knows.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Happy CMA population estimates eve everyone!

[MonctonRad]

I'm so excited!

[MolsonExport]

predictions: Alberta up, everyone else down.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

predictions: Alberta up, everyone else down.

Good - we have to dilute the separatist threat out there.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

^^^Guess that's what I get for skipping all those high school math classes. Thanks for letting me know and hopefully I can remember that for the next 2 days but at 61, one never knows.

It's never too late to go back to High School.

[rdaner]

An uneducated, IG worthy prediction on the eve of the CMA update tomorrow: CMA populations of the largest 50% are stable to growing due to a large increase in housing completions as well as a rebound from the pandemic exodus.