Statistics Canada Reports II

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by someone123

One of the tragedies of recent years is Canada managed to have a housing investment bubble and condo construction boom without actually building much usable housing.

Similarly the nonpermanent resident boom was misallocated with a huge bump in low value Uber drivers and Tim Horton's workers which largely suppressed unskilled youth employment instead of helping in key industries, like construction or health care.

The US housing market crash sort of ended up as a good thing in the long run, at least for younger people looking to buy a home. States like Florida saw huge amounts of internal migrants arrive from other states, and all those vacant homes and McMansions in the suburbs have long since been occupied.

Canada’s condo bubble hasn’t resulted in similar situation, because the prices are still way too high, and people don’t think a 350 square foot box in the sky is worth the price tag + monthly condo fees. Some of these developments (like the one in the video from the link Molson posted are a joke) and should become affordable rental housing. Perhaps government could look at stepping in and buying some of these mostly empty condo buildings to be turned into affordable rental housing? Or perhaps we just need much stronger taxation instrument that deter condo owners from leaving their units unoccupied.

Either way, it’s quite frustrating that Canada has so many empty condos in the middle of a housing crisis.

[kwoldtimer]

The last three posts seem better suited to the Housing thread.

[MolsonExport]

Canada’s Population Estimates (2025Q4) — Reversal Underway
(BMO Economics Research)

Nonpermanent resident (NPR) net outflows accelerated further following caps on international students and temporary foreign workers, with a net outflow of 176,000 in the quarter. The process of normalizing this segment of the population is now well underway—Ottawa is targeting a 5% share from 7.6% at the high and 6.9% as of the latest quarter. That implies further net outflows ahead, likely right through 2027. The impact is being seen most vividly in the rapidly-softening rental market.

Regionally, the impact of net NPR outflows is, as expected, cutting deeply in B.C. and Ontario. In fact, Ontario and B.C. saw their first annual population declines on record (-0.2% y/y). As it stands now, B.C.’s NPR share sits at 8.4% and Ontario’s is at 7.9%. With the rest of the country around the 5% mark give or take, these two provinces will continue to face the brunt of the net NPR adjustment. Meantime, permanent immigration remained solid at above 330k (saar), although that's also down from recent highs given reduced federal targets. Ottawa’s target for the upcoming three years is now set at 380 per year.

Canadians also continue to move around the country, but the pace of overall interprovincial migration is slowing down after a post-pandemic boom. Net migration to Alberta remained strong and has run at just under 30k people over the past year. A strong economy and favourable affordability remain draws. Atlantic Canada’s inward migration boom has really flattened out. This had been a blessing (driving growth) and a curse (infrastructure and housing stress) for the region, but that appears to be neutralizing. Ontario is seeing fewer net outflows each quarter, although the past year has still run at just under 18k. Interestingly, a sharp reversal in NPR inflows might ultimately push fewer resident Ontarians elsewhere, in part because of less stress on housing affordability. Indeed, affordability was arguably the biggest reason for movement to Alberta and Atlantic Canada; but with Ontario prices and rents down (while the latter remain near peak levels), the ‘affordability arbitrage' seems to be running its course. Future migration patterns will likely be driven more by relative economic/job market fundamentals.

The Bottom Line: A major population adjustment is well underway, and it remains one of the biggest economic stories in Canada. In order to hit the NPR target share, we’ll need to see population growth run barely above zero through 2028 (births and permanent immigration flows held constant), before settling back into a longer-term run rate of just under 1%. Among the impacts we’re tracking are a significant weakening of the rental market, especially with the pipeline chock-full of supply; less pressure on services inflation; easing slack in the youth job market; and a likely pickup in productivity and growth in real GDP per capita.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Housing starts for November. Better late than never as they say. Montreal tops for the month and has seen some solid numbers in recent months. It'll be between Calgary and Montreal for who has the most housing starts for 2025.

[rdaner]

Looks like CMA update is coming on 14 January!

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by rdaner

Looks like CMA update is coming on 14 January!

I can't wait to see the Winnipeg CMA pass 950,000

[Innsertnamehere]

Apartments being 93% of starts in Montreal is.. interesting. The sheer amount of apartment starts across the country right now is massive and is going to be putting massive downward pressure on the lower end of the real estate market.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Apartments being 93% of starts in Montreal is.. interesting. The sheer amount of apartment starts across the country right now is massive and is going to be putting massive downward pressure on the lower end of the real estate market.

That jumped out to me as well. I'm curious if this is in part a bit of vestigial investment-based construction that's lagging the cycle of what occurred in Toronto/Vancouver.

TO's numbers very low overall but a higher proportion of ground-related housing than the heyday. Which isn't terrible. Anecdotally I've been tracking a ton of multiplex proposals/construction in my area which really seem to be taking off as the economics begin to pan out (even with rent decreases).

[Innsertnamehere]

It's starts, not ongoing construction pipeline, so it's not vestigial.

I believe multiplexes would count towards an apartment start in that data so I don't think that's it. I think the ratio in Toronto changing a bit has a bit more to do with the suburban development not slowing as rapidly as the apartment market. It is interesting though, for several years apartment starts were 85%+ of starts in Toronto - now down to about 65%.

The GTA starts figure is also thrown off by the reality of the market - a lot of low-rise starts in the Toronto economic area actually occur outside of the CMA which is increasingly not capturing the wider economic influence of the city. A lot of high growth suburban areas in the GTA like Innisfil, Whitby, Tecumseth, etc. fall outside of the CMA and therefor outside of these statistics. Increasingly lowrise starts are pushing even further out into Niagara and north Simcoe County as well which is blurring it even further.

In the rest of the country, I think it has more to do with federal incentives which have been lined up to really encourage more apartment starts which is paying off now. Country-wide housing starts are up significantly in the last few years (especially excluding declines in Vancouver and Toronto) - and the vast majority of that increase is in apartments.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

The GTA starts figure is also thrown off by the reality of the market - a lot of low-rise starts in the Toronto economic area actually occur outside of the CMA which is increasingly not capturing the wider economic influence of the city. A lot of high growth suburban areas in the GTA like Innisfil, Whitby, Tecumseth, etc. fall outside of the CMA and therefor outside of these statistics. Increasingly lowrise starts are pushing even further out into Niagara and north Simcoe County as well which is blurring it even further.

This is true, and also the case with Montreal. The areas just outside of Montreal CMA have a higher amount of SFHs compared to Montreal CMA. We've seen that in recent years Montreal's CMA is actually losing people when you take international immigration out of the equation. Some of that loss is going to nearby communities just outside of the CMA.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by rdaner

Looks like CMA update is coming on 14 January!

Any guesses anyone? I'll throw in my predictions, which are mostly just a educated guess, but somewhat of an educated guess based on international immigration, interprovincial immigration, jobs and housing starts. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver having such a high amount immigration and such a large amount of that being NPRs, I'm predicting small gains...could even be losses depending on the exact months when immigration slowed down. For now small gains for all cities. Numbers for July 2026 will be interesting, we might see some losses.

Toronto +10,000
Montreal +5,000
Vancouver +5,000
Calgary +45,000
Ottawa +20,000
Edmonton+30,000
Winnipeg +5,000
Quebec +1,000
KW +15,000
Hamilton +3,000
Halifax +10,000
Victoria +2,000
Saskatoon +6,000
Regina +3,000

[Innsertnamehere]

I'd bet Toronto will be negative. The NPR exodus is putting a lot of downward pressure on a city which already has downward pressure from outmigration. The city is experiencing population loss and it's already visible on province-wide statistics and in transit ridership numbers.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Any guesses anyone? I'll throw in my predictions, which are mostly just a educated guess, but somewhat of an educated guess based on international immigration, interprovincial immigration, jobs and housing starts. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver having such a high amount immigration and such a large amount of that being NPRs, I'm predicting small gains...could even be losses depending on the exact months when immigration slowed down. For now small gains for all cities. Numbers for July 2026 will be interesting, we might see some losses.

Toronto +10,000
Montreal +5,000
Vancouver +5,000
Calgary +45,000
Ottawa +20,000
Edmonton+30,000
Winnipeg +5,000
Quebec +1,000
KW +15,000
Hamilton +3,000
Halifax +10,000
Victoria +2,000
Saskatoon +6,000
Regina +3,000

15000 for KCW seems unlikely, given the collapse in student numbers.

[Zeej]

Predicting losses for the big 3 and more moderate gains for the rest given that the country as a whole barely grew.

[Chocolite]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Any guesses anyone? I'll throw in my predictions, which are mostly just a educated guess, but somewhat of an educated guess based on international immigration, interprovincial immigration, jobs and housing starts. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver having such a high amount immigration and such a large amount of that being NPRs, I'm predicting small gains...could even be losses depending on the exact months when immigration slowed down. For now small gains for all cities. Numbers for July 2026 will be interesting, we might see some losses.

Toronto +10,000
Montreal +5,000
Vancouver +5,000
Calgary +45,000
Ottawa +20,000
Edmonton+30,000
Winnipeg +5,000
Quebec +1,000
KW +15,000
Hamilton +3,000
Halifax +10,000
Victoria +2,000
Saskatoon +6,000
Regina +3,000

A little different from your numbers with losses for the big 3, and lower increases for the others, but I also agree that July 2026 will probably be more losses and then back to normal in 2027.

Toronto -5,000
Montreal -10,000
Vancouver -5,000
Calgary +25,000
Ottawa +15,000
Edmonton+10,000
Winnipeg +1,000
Quebec -1,000
KW -5,000
Hamilton -3,000
Halifax +1,000
Victoria 0,000
Saskatoon +2,000
Regina +1,000

[craner]

Are these predictions for year over year (July 2024 - July 2025) ?

[Laceoflight]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Any guesses anyone?

Toronto +10,000
Montreal +5,000
Vancouver +5,000
Calgary +45,000
Ottawa +20,000
Edmonton+30,000
Winnipeg +5,000
Quebec +1,000
KW +15,000
Hamilton +3,000
Halifax +10,000
Victoria +2,000
Saskatoon +6,000
Regina +3,000

I don't know how it is going in the Prairies and the West, in Ontario or the Atlantic. But for Quebec, I have a different take. It is quite documented that the changes with non permanent resident status has had a huge impact on the main cities. It is also documented that Quebec City is still growing, though less intensely than during the last few years.

So, from 2024 to 2025, my guesses :
Montreal -20 000
Québec +5 000
Gatineau +3 000
Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières & Drummondville : +1 000
Saguenay : stagnant

[DavidK93]

Here's my predictions for the large metros.

Toronto -10,000
Montreal -10,000
Vancouver +/- 0
Calgary +20,000
Ottawa -5,000
Edmonton+10,000

Calgary will probably see the biggest gain because they've had strong inter-provincial migration and on the international immigration side far less non-permanent residents. Edmonton will be in similar shape. It's the inter-provincial numbers that will keep those two cities in the growth column. Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal have relied heavily on international immigration with a really high percentage of non-permanent residents, but Vancouver will weather the drop a bit better and will come out somewhere around even.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Any guesses anyone? I'll throw in my predictions, which are mostly just a educated guess, but somewhat of an educated guess based on international immigration, interprovincial immigration, jobs and housing starts. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver having such a high amount immigration and such a large amount of that being NPRs, I'm predicting small gains...could even be losses depending on the exact months when immigration slowed down. For now small gains for all cities. Numbers for July 2026 will be interesting, we might see some losses.

Toronto +10,000
Montreal +5,000
Vancouver +5,000
Calgary +45,000
Ottawa +20,000
Edmonton+30,000
Winnipeg +5,000
Quebec +1,000
KW +15,000
Hamilton +3,000
Halifax +10,000
Victoria +2,000
Saskatoon +6,000
Regina +3,000

I think those numbers are wildly pessimistic across the board.

Remember, these new CMA/CA stats are for July 24 to July 25.......the first part of which the country was still seeing solid population growth. The real collapse in our population to negative territory really only started about 8 or 9 months ago so little of that will be reflected in these new numbers.

We certainly won't be seeing the ridiculous increases that we have seen in the last 3 years but it will still be significant population growth.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I think those numbers are wildly pessimistic across the board.

Remember, these new CMA/CA stats are for July 24 to July 25.......the first part of which the country was still seeing solid population growth. The real collapse in our population to negative territory really only started about 8 or 9 months ago so little of that will be reflected in these new numbers.

We certainly won't be seeing the ridiculous increases that we have seen in the last 3 years but it will still be significant population growth.

I have all the cities in positive growth, mainly because the downturn wasn't through all of 2025, but the trend down was already starting even in early 2025. To your point though, it really depends on when things stared to turn in 2025. The numbers could be a fair bit higher, with the July 2026 numbers being the numbers showing losses *which I think is what we'll see). For 2025, it'll be growth, just a matter of how much or how little.