Portland Politics Thread

[PhillyPDX]

It really seems Portland made every wrong decision in the years leading up to Covid, and we are paying dearly for it now. Massive tax increases on biz and middle+ income people, IZ requirements, etc.

https://www.wweek.com/news/2025/03/19/po...s-to-lowest-level-in-more-than-a-decade/

[colossalorder]

Amen! I'm generally a progressive, but Portland went bonkers with all these "feel good" policies and taxes that ignore the realities of economics, investments and capital flows. Inclusionary housing requirements may give us the warm feels, but really risks having the opposite effect by squeezing developer profits, thereby reducing housing supply and increasing rent for everyone. Its Econ 101 supply and demand curves.

I think one interesting housing policy debate worth having is changing property tax from a current assessed value system to a "highest and best use" system. That is you get taxed not on what it currently is, but what it could be. So, an owner of a worthless parking lot in downtown is more incented to build. Same with a vacant piece of land in a spot that could support a large multi-family. I know its complicated to administer, but conceptually creates better incentives. Squandering precious land for 19 unit buildings to skirt inclusionary requirements is certainly not an outcome any one can feel good about.

[subterranean]

Washington County is really seeing the benefit of those policies. Since the passage of IZ, there have been almost 2000 multifamily units built, under construction, or planned within 1/2 mile of Willow Creek, Elmonica, and Merlo stations. That’s more units than all the middle housing built in Portland since the RIP zoning reform. Many more planned in Beaverton and Hillsboro, too. I would not be surprised at all if Washington County has 3 or 4 census tracts with greater population densities than any census tract in Portland east of the river by the 2030 Census.

[colossalorder]

I'll leave it to the housing policy experts to assess the evidence of net benefits of inclusionary housing policies.

From my downtown Portland vantage point, the only large-scale commercial housing project I see going up is the Press Blocks which I believe is pre-IZ.

It does seem pretty intuitive that if you make it less profitable to build, they will build less.

[subterranean]

What I’m saying is that I believe they’re still building, they’re just choosing to build in Washington County (and elsewhere).

[Jakz]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

I'll leave it to the housing policy experts to assess the evidence of net benefits of inclusionary housing policies.

From my downtown Portland vantage point, the only large-scale commercial housing project I see going up is the Press Blocks which I believe is pre-IZ.

It does seem pretty intuitive that if you make it less profitable to build, they will build less.

Portland's IZ mandate is now fully funded, so the problems it caused when first implemented should hopefully be getting better.
https://www.sightline.org/2024/02/23/now...,market%20homes%20are%20being%20produced.

FWIW, this study found that the program was adequately funded for development near the city center, but inadequately funded for many inner neighborhoods.
https://www.portland.gov/phb/documents/portland-inclusionary-housing-study-final-report/download

IZ seems like a fine concept, so long as it's funded. Unfunded IZ is clearly bad.

[colossalorder]

https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2025/...n-housing-oregon-just-keeps-digging.html

"Oregon’s elected leaders should recognize that tighter rent stabilization provisions won’t lead Oregon out of our housing deficit. It will only dig the hole deeper."

[PhillyPDX]

Nice to see Kotek and Wilson really trying to push changes. Who knows how much the SDC and these new changes will affect construction, but at least is a positive start. Also nice to see these changes are being made with input from stakeholders from different areas of the process: developers, housing advocates, construction firms, etc.

https://www.opb.org/article/2025/05/29/w...housing-development-portland-accelerate/

[uncommon.name]

It was sure exciting to find out recently that not only are we one of the highest taxed states in the country, but now we get to pay additional taxes when we purchase a mattress or a bicycle!

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by uncommon.name

It was sure exciting to find out recently that not only are we one of the highest taxed states in the country, but now we get to pay additional taxes when we purchase a mattress or a bicycle!

Depends on how you measure taxes, if it is just from income tax, then it is really bad, but when you factor in all the other kinds of taxes, Oregon is in the middle of the pack out of the 50 states

[colossalorder]

Argh! The tax deniers on this forum are like the 2020 election deniers. No matter what evidence is presented, they remain unpersuaded.

The tax problem for Portland is literally front and center in this report.

"A complex, high-cost tax system:
Portland now has one of the highest combined income tax rates in the nation,
and local business taxes have risen more than 80% since 2019. These costs
discourage entrepreneurship and push investment out."

Up 80%!!! ... you could be an Econ 101 flunkee and still know that almost doubling business taxes is going to drive business away.

W/r/t to corporate taxes, Portland is THE absolute worst ... by a lot ... not even close.
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/state/portland-taxes/

Portland voters f'ed up this city with a tax burden that is killing the local economy. I know that is politically inconvenient for a lot of progressives like myself, but reality is greater than ideology.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

Argh! The tax deniers on this forum are like the 2020 election deniers. No matter what evidence is presented, they remain unpersuaded.

The tax problem for Portland is literally front and center in this report.

"A complex, high-cost tax system:
Portland now has one of the highest combined income tax rates in the nation,
and local business taxes have risen more than 80% since 2019. These costs
discourage entrepreneurship and push investment out."

Up 80%!!! ... you could be an Econ 101 flunkee and still know that almost doubling business taxes is going to drive business away.

W/r/t to corporate taxes, Portland is THE absolute worst ... by a lot ... not even close.
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/state/portland-taxes/

Portland voters f'ed up this city with a tax burden that is killing the local economy. I know that is politically inconvenient for a lot of progressives like myself, but reality is greater than ideology.

The bulk of our taxes comes from income tax, so it makes sense that it is high. But income tax isn't the only tax that people pay in states.

[colossalorder]

Probably helpful to distinguish btwn state and local in the conversation here. At the state level, Oregon has no sales tax and high income tax. The pros and cons of that choice can be debated and one's view probably aligns with one's political leanings. As a progressive, I'm personally good with it conceptually.

I'm talking about the city/county level. Portland and Multco taxes are positively bonkers, both in terms of levels and structure. This is true at both the individual and corporate level. Portland voters loaded up on feel-good special purpose taxes that are just lunacy. I think rational people of all political persuasions can see the problem clearly. If you heap on the taxes, the tax base will leave and then we will face budget cuts that will really hurt all citizens of this beloved city. Even if you support the policy goals, its hard to feel great about the bang for buck we are getting here with these taxes. Even less so, considering their destructive impact to the local economy.

From the task force report:

Portland’s Fiscal Foundations are Under Strain
Portland’s recovery hinges not only on private investment and civic will, but on the public sector’s capacity to deliver. Disjointed tax policy and growing service demands have created a fragile fiscal base.

Structural Tax Challenges are Slowing Growth
Since 2009, Portland has enacted more than 20 major tax measures affecting residents and businesses, making it one of the highest-taxed cities in the country. The city now has the second-highest top marginal income tax rate in the U.S., and local business taxes have surged by 82% since 2019. These rising costs coincide with sluggish job growth and out-migration trends as higher income households leave Multnomah County at increasing rates.
Notably, while tax revenue has outpaced inflation, most of the growth has been in special-purpose funds rather than general funds, which support essential services like policing, transportation, and emergency response. This imbalance has created a paradox: increasing revenues but persistent service gaps

Budget Shortfalls and Revenue Misalignment
Portland and Multnomah County both face structural budget deficits driven by rising personnel costs and slowing tax revenue growth. Property tax collections—a key funding source—have been impacted by the decline in downtown office commercial property values, which will slow revenue growth in the coming years.
Further complicating the financial picture, several major tax-funded initiatives—including Preschool for All, Supportive Housing Services, and the Portland Clean Energy Fund—have accumulated more than $1.2 billion in unspent balances. While voter-approved, the slow deployment of these funds raises concerns about the city’s, Metro’s, and county’s ability to translate tax revenue into tangible improvements.

[colossalorder]

Gov. Kotek sends Jessica Vega Pederson a letter pleading for relief on Preschool for All tax. Amen.

https://www.wweek.com/news/schools/2025/...-for-all-tax-imperiling-oregon-tax-base/

“I am concerned that the program’s current direction is not responsive to the economic realities of 2025,” Kotek continued. “And if Portland does not rebound in the way we think it can, the downstream impacts on our economy will end up costing our most vulnerable and lowest income Oregonians the most.”

Yes, this exactly. JVP has her head in sand. She must go ... and so must all these bonkers tax experiments. The reality of economics is screaming at Portland. JVP is our fiddling Nero while Rome is burning.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BT14YyoUpvBAMQdwrFR7K7llNhXmR5em/view

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

Gov. Kotek sends Jessica Vega Pederson a letter pleading for relief on Preschool for All tax. Amen.

https://www.wweek.com/news/schools/2025/...-for-all-tax-imperiling-oregon-tax-base/

“I am concerned that the program’s current direction is not responsive to the economic realities of 2025,” Kotek continued. “And if Portland does not rebound in the way we think it can, the downstream impacts on our economy will end up costing our most vulnerable and lowest income Oregonians the most.”

Yes, this exactly. JVP has her head in sand. She must go ... and so must all these bonkers tax experiments. The reality of economics is screaming at Portland. JVP is our fiddling Nero while Rome is burning.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BT14YyoUpvBAMQdwrFR7K7llNhXmR5em/view

lol, wut?

“In a response to Kotek dated Wednesday, Vega Pederson disputed the governor’s 1,700 number, saying that during tax year 2023, the county had not yet done any outreach to potential payers. “Based on updated data that we received in May, the total number of filers in Tax Year 2023 is now 38,370, a 5,429-filer increase from revised Tax Year 2021 numbers,” she wrote. (Kotek’s letter notes her data is from May 16.)”.

Was this next look at numbers only because Kotek asked? Why is the tax so poorly implemented that a substantial number of people only pay when the city reaches out, and apparently not until 1 year after the tax was actually due? Why is the city doing it, and not the county, for whom the tax is for?

Seeing as it’s not pegged to inflation, it should be increasing, substantially so, every year as people get COLA and other performance based raises and now jump into the tax threshold.

Good for Kotek for driving the conversation. Good governance should not be a bad thing.

[maccoinnich]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

Why is the tax so poorly implemented that a substantial number of people only pay when the city reaches out, and apparently not until 1 year after the tax was actually due? Why is the city doing it, and not the county, for whom the tax is for?

To the first of these two questions: I suspect that there's a substantial number of people or households who were just over the threshold and didn't realize they owed anything, because these taxes aren't integrated into Turbotax or H&R Block. (I heard that the city has only just this year been able to convince Turbotax include the Arts Tax.) The city has access to IRS data after filing, but I'm not sure how long it takes them to get that access.

The second: the County contracts with the City to do this, because they have the existing infrastructure to do so. (Portland also collects Multnomah County Business Income Tax). Which, quite aside from anything related to the merits of PFA, I think is an argument for city/county consolidation.

[colossalorder]

I think the number of payers isn't the right metric ... or at least doesn't really tell the whole story. Given its a marginal tax, having a large number of payors just cross the threshold doesn't necessarily raise a lot of tax dollars.

I'd love see detail on the very high end of the income spectrum. For example, how many of Multnomah county's very wealthiest have left the county since the tax was enacted and how many have stayed? I'm guessing those numbers are pretty stark as its very easy for the ultra-wealthy to change their primary residence.

While its easy to dislike the ultra-wealthy, they do play an important role in the local economy, job creation, supporting the arts and local charities, civic leadership and so on.

Although this was billed as a "tax on the rich", its fate is likely to become a much broader tax hit felt by more and more residents. The rich are leaving (or already left).

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

I think the number of payers isn't the right metric ... or at least doesn't really tell the whole story. Given its a marginal tax, having a large number of payors just cross the threshold doesn't necessarily raise a lot of tax dollars.

I'd love see detail on the very high end of the income spectrum. For example, how many of Multnomah county's very wealthiest have left the county since the tax was enacted and how many have stayed? I'm guessing those numbers are pretty stark as its very easy for the ultra-wealthy to change their primary residence.

While its easy to dislike the ultra-wealthy, they do play an important role in the local economy, job creation, supporting the arts and local charities, civic leadership and so on.

Although this was billed as a "tax on the rich", its fate is likely to become a much broader tax hit felt by more and more residents. The rich are leaving (or already left).

I would think these numbers would be fairly easy for the city to know. What is migration rate for current residents over $XX AGI.

With this current back and forth between Kotek and JVP, reminds me of that PPS strike debacle where they were still arguing how much money existed, like 2 weeks into the strike (a number that should have been long known and agreed to before it even got to a strike). Turns out, Kotek was right and now we are losing huge numbers of teachers. Facts matter in zero sum games.

[colossalorder]

File under doom loop. Very interesting WWeek article.

https://www.wweek.com/news/2025/10/29/po...in-tax-compression-courtesy-of-big-pink/

Tax the living crap out of businesses and the wealthy and they simply pack up and go. Property values crater ... then property tax collections crater ... leaving fewer resources to support our civic necessities and grand social ambitions.

How will voters react to the upcoming ballot measure with a 75% jump on the tax levy for parks? Will they continue their toxic love affair with taxes or have we hit a tipping point where they are finally tapped out and wake up to economic reality.

I actively use and cherish Portland parks. However through indirect feedback loops, taxing more might actually mean collecting less in the grand scheme of things. Less for the parks and everything else we need.

[maccoinnich]

I do think it's worth noting that Portland property tax assessed values (and therefore revenues) as a whole are continuing to increase, but the specific problem highlighted in the work session is that the market value of downtown office buildings specifically have fallen a lot, and that growth in tax revenues is therefore slower than it would otherwise be.

If you look at apartment buildings in downtown, their assessed values are still climbing (even where their market value has declined; when the market values were climbing rapidly, the 3% cap on assessed value growth meant they were never assessed on anywhere near the full value of the structure).