Portland Politics Thread

[2oh1]

I had a thought and wasn't sure where to put it, so I started a new thread in the "Business, the Economy & Politics" section.

In the PDX Airport thread, MarkDaMan said:

Originally Posted by MarkDaMan

I think we should get PoP Director Curtis Robinhold to run for mayor. He gets things done!

Honestly, that's not a bad idea. I'd like to explore that topic, if you don't mind.

Portland hasn't had a good mayor since Vera left office in 2004. OK, technically, it was January 2005. Since then, we've had a string of 1 term mayors... and Ted.

For a long time, I've been thinking that the only way we'll get a decent mayor again is if 'somebody' (or some influential group) steps up to recruit the right candidate, because it sure seems like nobody who could actually do the job wants the job.

So... here's my question: If you could convince anyone you want to run for mayor next year, who would it be?

Who is your dream candidate for Portland Mayor in 2024?

[PhillyPDX]

Does it even matter with such a relatively powerless position? Soon to have maybe even less power (in a different way).

Honestly, I've heard so many complaints of Wheeler, and I think, "That complaint assumes the mayor here even HAS the power to do X. They don't". It's like people hear the word "mayor" and just assume the role is similar to other cities (it's not), and then complain. What would the perception of Wheeler be if you changed his title to what it really is, "Council Chair"? I guarantee public perception would change drastically.

[tworivers]

In the spirit of having fun with this, can we nominate fellow forumers? If so, I think that whoever aquaticko is, well, they should give it a shot. We need more people running for Mayor, or any elected office, who have an expansive vision and the data and persistence to back it up and then push hard against the increasingly-deadly (at every level) status quo and those who can't see past it. Eric can be chief of staff...

[eric cantona]

Originally Posted by tworivers

In the spirit of having fun with this, can we nominate fellow forumers? If so, I think that whoever aquaticko is, well, they should give it a shot. We need more people running for Mayor, or any elected office, who have an expansive vision and the data and persistence to back it up and then push hard against the increasingly-deadly (at every level) status quo and those who can't see past it. Eric can be chief of staff...

ack. that position is currently a poisoned chalice as Macbeth would say.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

Does it even matter with such a relatively powerless position? Soon to have maybe even less power (in a different way).

Honestly, I've heard so many complaints of Wheeler, and I think, "That complaint assumes the mayor here even HAS the power to do X. They don't". It's like people hear the word "mayor" and just assume the role is similar to other cities (it's not), and then complain. What would the perception of Wheeler be if you changed his title to what it really is, "Council Chair"? I guarantee public perception would change drastically.

Yeah, most cities treat their mayor as a punching bag without realizing what it is a mayor actually does and doesn't do.

[2oh1]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

Honestly, I've heard so many complaints of Wheeler, and I think, "That complaint assumes the mayor here even HAS the power to do X. They don't".

Maybe it's just that some of us are old enough and have been here long enough to remember Vera.

And what about Bud Clark? 30 years have passed since Bud left office after two terms and he is still remembered. Will Wheeler be remembered 30 years from now? Even five years from now, will he be remembered for anything other than getting tear gassed at a protest while protesters cheered and laughed?

Under-fire Portland mayor Ted Wheeler now has a hot sauce named after him: 'Tear Gas Ted'

"Tear Gas Ted's Hot Sauce is available for free – but customers have to donate to a social justice nonprofit first."



-- Business Insider

Yes, it's a hard job, especially since so much power is actually in the hands of city council... but that's the job. Vera and others have proven the job can be done.

We've gone nearly 20 years without an effective mayor, and nobody worth a damn seems to want the job. We're getting to the point where it's time to start begging credible leaders to step up. The only reason Ted won a second term was because the other candidate was sooooo baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad.

I still don't understand how Sarah Iadontcare went from THIS in 2016:



...to THIS in 2020...



...not to mention the fact that she was wearing skirts with the faces of communist dictators as a pattern. Good. Freaking. Lord. What happened?

[NOPO]

Rene Gonzalez, Dan Ryan, Ted Wheeler, and Mingus Mapps are destroying our city. They’ve recently balked at funding an organization that intends to help the black community, Reimagine Oregon. They’re pulling back $4.89 million. I cannot wait until everything is upended in 2024 with the new city government structure.

[2oh1]

Portland Commissioner Mingus Mapps announces run for mayor in 2024 election

Portland Commissioner Mingus Mapps announced he’s running for mayor in the November 2024 election, calling the city’s status quo of crime, drugs, and the homelessness crisis “unacceptable.”

City records show Mapps filed a notice of intent to run on Monday.

...continues at KATU.com.

[2oh1]

Originally Posted by urbanlife

Yeah, most cities treat their mayor as a punching bag without realizing what it is a mayor actually does and doesn't do.

Let's add to the list of things our mayor doesn't do:

Mayor Ted Wheeler isn't giving a 'State of Portland' address

...video at KGW.com

Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, defying tradition, skips State of the City address — again

"Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler continues to pump the brakes on a time-honored tradition that he and a long line of his City Hall predecessors have previously embraced."

...continues at Oregon Live

As the old saying goes, if you don't have anything nice to say, say nothing. Ted's got nothing to say.

[babs]

Originally Posted by 2oh1

Let's add to the list of things our mayor doesn't do:



...video at KGW.com



...continues at Oregon Live

As the old saying goes, if you don't have anything nice to say, say nothing. Ted's got nothing to say.

We all know the state of our city. No need for a speech.

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by babs

We all know the state of our city. No need for a speech.

Yeah, when news stories like this come out. Not great.

https://www.wweek.com/news/2024/05/02/po...ployment-among-us-cities-over-past-year/

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

Yeah, when news stories like this come out. Not great.

https://www.wweek.com/news/2024/05/02/po...ployment-among-us-cities-over-past-year/

I think that has less to do with Portland or its metro and more to do with the global economy. A bunch of our major employers seem to have all done big layoffs. The article paints it as less people are moving here as a reason for those layoffs, but if a company like Nike expanding their hiring rather than layoffs, they would have found people that would have moved here to work for them.

[PhillyPDX]

Interesting results from the Kotek city task force:

https://www.wweek.com/news/city/2025/01/...ing-wealthy-people-to-leave-report-says/

These things matter, as companies and high earners pay by far the most taxes in a dollar amount, hence the budget gap Portland now faces. Good riddance, until we have a big budget gap. There are consequences to business leaving downtown/portland. To be sure, there might be some pro biz manipulation in this data, I don’t know. But since it’s a Kotek task force and not just a biz lobby group it’s probably fairly accurate.

Also, interesting the topic of comparing marginal tax rates in nyc. The article doesn’t mention a key point: nys highest bracket starts at $25,000,000. Oregon’s is $125k. Nys has sales tax too so it’s more complicated to compare overall tax rate, but just an interesting point when I often see a simple direct comparison between Portland and nyc marginal tax rate.

[DMH]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

Interesting results from the Kotek city task force:

https://www.wweek.com/news/city/2025/01/...ing-wealthy-people-to-leave-report-says/

These things matter, as companies and high earners pay by far the most taxes in a dollar amount, hence the budget gap Portland now faces. Good riddance, until we have a big budget gap. There are consequences to business leaving downtown/portland. To be sure, there might be some pro biz manipulation in this data, I don’t know. But since it’s a Kotek task force and not just a biz lobby group it’s probably fairly accurate.

Also, interesting the topic of comparing marginal tax rates in nyc. The article doesn’t mention a key point: nys highest bracket starts at $25,000,000. Oregon’s is $125k. Nys has sales tax too so it’s more complicated to compare overall tax rate, but just an interesting point when I often see a simple direct comparison between Portland and nyc marginal tax rate.

There have been many articles about Portland's tax burden as well as the vast sums approved by voters to solve homelessness and the cannibis taxes to treat drug addiction. But our problems with both do not get solved. The numbers of homeless have not gone down. Yet I read of other US cities that have reduced their homeless populations. Soon the County will activate a data base that tabulates information about each homeless individual. I look forward to knowing specifically what circumstances caused each person to end up on the street. I also would like to know if some individuals came from other Oregon communities that lack homeless services or if others were sent to Portland from out of state. In addition, if drug addiction is a cause of homelessness, were any individuals drawn to Oregon because of Measure 110's promise of cheap, readily available drugs.

[subterranean]

Can’t speak for anyone else, but the property taxes are definitely a huge deterrent to my household moving to Portland/Multnomah County despite a strong desire to live a more urban lifestyle. The additional income taxes is just adding insult to injury after that. Between the two, my household would likely pay anywhere between $10k and $15k more per year in taxes. With two young kids in daycare and a wife still paying off her student loans, an extra $1000 per month makes a big different to our bottom line, even as upper middle class earners, because we are frugal and value saving for retirement and the kids’ educations. I really don’t see much difference in service provisions, either.

[maccoinnich]

Originally Posted by subterranean

Can’t speak for anyone else, but the property taxes are definitely a huge deterrent to my household moving to Portland/Multnomah County despite a strong desire to live a more urban lifestyle. The additional income taxes is just adding insult to injury after that. Between the two, my household would likely pay anywhere between $10k and $15k more per year in taxes. With two young kids in daycare and a wife still paying off her student loans, an extra $1000 per month makes a big different to our bottom line, even as upper middle class earners, because we are frugal and value saving for retirement and the kids’ educations. I really don’t see much difference in service provisions, either.

I’m struggling to understand the math here. The SHS is tax Metro area wide. Preschool for All is Multnomah County specific, but only applies to household income over $200,000 (after deductions; a household with a gross income of $200,000 would pay nothing even if only taking the standard deduction). At $400,000 of Oregon taxable household income the Preschool for All bill would be $3,000 annually.

As for property taxes, well, they vary a lot property to property, but I just searched on Redfin for houses currently for sale in around the $1,000,000 mark. A very nice looking house in Irvington is paying $9,782.51 a year. A similarly priced house in Cooper Mountain is paying $12,156 a year in property taxes, plus $336 in HOA dues.

If the comparison was between Multnomah County and Clark County the differences would be starker, for someone who can move their employment out of Oregon while doing most of their shopping and dining out in Oregon. But within the Portland Metro area, you’d have to have a pretty big household income to make the difference in taxation be worth $10-$15,000 a year.

[colossalorder]

I can't seem to find the actual tax advisory group report that the WWeek article is based on. It doesn't seem to be on any Oregon or Portland websites. Anyone find it? I'd love to see the underlying analysis.

The conclusions are not surprising. Tax the crap out of businesses and the wealthy and they will leave. They have options and flexibility. Portland is lovely but just not worth the price tag at some point. Deplete the tax base and the budget craters and the city has to slash services and spending. Everyone suffers. Its all simple economics, but for some reason Portland voters don't seem to get it.

I hope this is our rock bottom on taxes and voters/leaders can wake up to the reality of how an economy works. I just don't know how some of these get reversed as they were ballot initiatives. I find it hard to feel optimistic right now on this front. Even the vibe of many on this site still seem to be in denial that tax burden is a major cause (but certainly not the only one) of Portland's troubles.

[DMH]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

I can't seem to find the actual tax advisory group report that the WWeek article is based on. It doesn't seem to be on any Oregon or Portland websites. Anyone find it? I'd love to see the underlying analysis.

The conclusions are not surprising. Tax the crap out of businesses and the wealthy and they will leave. They have options and flexibility. Portland is lovely but just not worth the price tag at some point. Deplete the tax base and the budget craters and the city has to slash services and spending. Everyone suffers. Its all simple economics, but for some reason Portland voters don't seem to get it.

I hope this is our rock bottom on taxes and voters/leaders can wake up to the reality of how an economy works. I just don't know how some of these get reversed as they were ballot initiatives. I find it hard to feel optimistic right now on this front. Even the vibe of many on this site still seem to be in denial that tax burden is a major cause (but certainly not the only one) of Portland's troubles.

Back on January 8th, I made a post on this Downtown thread suggesting that the political pendulum may be swinging back to a more moderate position. No, I am not a Republican. Taxation for some pet projects may have to be set aside, especially as the City of Portland is facing a $100 million budget deficit. If only City Council could reallocate some specific funds in order to maintain and improve public safety, which is essential to rebuild Portland's reputation and economy.

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by maccoinnich

I’m struggling to understand the math here. The SHS is tax Metro area wide. Preschool for All is Multnomah County specific, but only applies to household income over $200,000 (after deductions; a household with a gross income of $200,000 would pay nothing even if only taking the standard deduction). At $400,000 of Oregon taxable household income the Preschool for All bill would be $3,000 annually.

As for property taxes, well, they vary a lot property to property, but I just searched on Redfin for houses currently for sale in around the $1,000,000 mark. A very nice looking house in Irvington is paying $9,782.51 a year. A similarly priced house in Cooper Mountain is paying $12,156 a year in property taxes, plus $336 in HOA dues.

If the comparison was between Multnomah County and Clark County the differences would be starker, for someone who can move their employment out of Oregon while doing most of their shopping and dining out in Oregon. But within the Portland Metro area, you’d have to have a pretty big household income to make the difference in taxation be worth $10-$15,000 a year.

Ah, I actually didn't realize that the PFA tax was marginal. Thanks for clarifying that for me, that makes it a little better. I thought it was a straight 1.5% tax on all income, which would have made it a lot harder for us.

For a married couple filing jointly who takes the standard deduction (about $29,200 in 2023), that 1.5% begins to apply for people making just $229,200. For two income households such as ourselves who also maximize our 401k, FSA and other pre-tax savings, the 1.5% would still apply to us. It's not THAT high of a bar to clear, and marginal makes all the difference.

My math was approximating about $3700 in PFA and about $6,000 more in property taxes. My wife and I need to stay on the west side due to our jobs, and the property taxes in Multnomah County on this side of the river for similarly sized houses and condos are astronomical compared to uninoroporated Washington County.

Our mortgage payment (PITI) right now is just $1500/month with no HOA. My property taxes are about $4300 per year. We often discuss moving to Northwest when the kids are a little older. We've been looking at houses and condos in the $650-$750k...there aren't many, but the ones I've seen are like $10k on the low end and $16k on the high end in terms of property taxes.

While the valuation depends a lot on what it was set at in 1997, Multnomah County just has higher taxes due to voter-approved measures for schools, parks libraries. Portland proper has a mill rate of 22-25 mills (22-25 dollars per $1000 of assessed value) vs unincorporated Washington County, which is 14-18 mills depending on what districts you're in. So, for a brand new house valued about $600k, you're looking at about $8-10k in property taxes in unincorporated Washington County vs $13-15k in Portland, for a difference of about $5k per year.

So without counting the PFA tax (since it's marginal), it would depend...but on the low end our tax bill would most likely double and would be about $400 more per month. On the high end it (and in a few more years while values rise), it might be triple what we currently pay and be closer to that $1000 number.

[colossalorder]

I seem to be struggling to land a basic point. The people who make office location decisions are going to be c-suite executive at comp packages that are in the top %iles of income. When you do the math for someone making a million bucks or more, you can see PFA is meaningful to influence decision (on top of all the other business and personal taxes).

Talk to any realtor about the state of the high end home market in Multnomah county vs. neighboring counties. Its miserable. Ritz Carlton condos are sitting empty.

Or take it to an extreme. Look at the founder of Smarsh's home.
https://www.oregonlive.com/realestate/20...he-ritzy-details-of-the-25m-listing.html
If he can sink $20 million into a house, what is he making a year and what is his PFA tax bill? It would be insanity for him to live in Portland. He's off to Florida.

I'm sure many Portlanders would say "Good riddance ... this is no town for the rich." Except that Smarsh's corporate HQ is in downtown Portland. Will they renew their lease when its due or head to a more friendly jurisdiction?