Canadian Federal Election

[FrAnKs]

Originally Posted by casper

My prediction:

LPC 180
CPC 126
BQ 26
NDP 8
Green 2
Independent 1

I think Elizabeth May will get her seat, currently the polls are showing the conservatives in the lead due to vote splitting between Green/NDP/Liberal. I think there is going to be more strategic voting than the polls indicate. The vast majority of voters in that ridding would be offended having a conservative MP.


The Conservatives declined to have de Jong run for them. I think he has a better chance of winning his riding than the conservative candidate.

Lol we almost predicted the same : )

[MonctonRad]

My prediction:

LPC - 186
CPC - 126
BLQ - 22
NDP - 7
GRN - 1
IND - 1

I would like to see de Jong win as an independent to teach the tories a lesson.

[Loco101]

Has anyone on here predicted or is anyone predicting a 200+ "super majority" Liberal victory? I

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Has anyone on here predicted or is anyone predicting a 200+ "super majority" Liberal victory? I

Seems unlikely. Would need everything to align. Bloc and NDP underperform and the best case BC and GTA numbers for the Liberals and an Atlantic Canada sweep too. It is probably more likely than PP is the next PM with a decisive Conservative win though. A 160 to 155 Conservative "win" might not get them to power after all.

[MonctonRad]

Three weeks ago (April 5th), the LPC reached the zenith of their current support (at least as far as the CBC Poll Tracker is concerned). Since then, there has been a constant erosion.

So, what has been the change since then???

LPC: 44.2% -> 42.5% (-1.7%)
CPC: 37.3% -> 38.9% (+1.6%)
NDP: 8.1% -> 8.6% (+0.5%)
BLQ: 5.3% -> 6.0% (+0.7%)
GRN: 2.2% -> 1.9% (-0.3%)
PPC: 2.0% -> 1.4% (-0.6%)
OTH: 0.8% -> 0.6% (-0.2%)

- Disaster for the PPC and GRN.
- Poillievre has been doing some damage with his campaign, and both Singh and Blanchett have been making some inroads.
- I am not surprised thet there has been some downward drift for Carney. He is not a professional politician, and his campaign has been low key. Also, there have been far more Conservative adverts in the media than LPC ads.

Still, the drift has not been that great, and it is too late for any further changes. It will still be an LPC majority, but, not a 200 seat supermajority.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Has anyone on here predicted or is anyone predicting a 200+ "super majority" Liberal victory? I

I think the issue will be Quebec. My read of things (as a westerner) may be a bit off, but that said....

I think the Bloc focuses on addressing local issues and gains a lot of support because of it. The exist to the Liberals is out of fear that the Conservatives would win and mess up on negotiation with the US. As as a Liberal majority becomes more likely, some are moving back to supporting the Bloc.

Perhaps the same would be happening in strong NDP ridings.

I know a few people in Elizabeth May's ridding that would normally vote Liberal, however they are voting Green out of fear of having the Conservative MP.

This year there is going to be a lot of strategic voting from the "anyone but Conservative" crowd.

[Marty_Mcfly]

This is what happens when you poll primarily through Twitter Ads.

April 21st - April 27th, n=398 (MoE: +/- 5%)


Re-weighted for gender and geographic region, but still completely trash. Funny enough though, the Atlantic sample seems normal and would be a viable result tomorrow.

Maybe if you added the results from this page's poll to mine it'd even out to something a bit more accurate

We were talking about how this sort of reflects on how people who are stuck in echo chambers can slowly fall down the path of election denialism. If all you see is positive conservative content (on Twitter) or positive Liberal content (Reddit), then when the results don't match what you've immersed yourself in then those types of conspiracy theories can rear their ugly heads.

I'll give a national prediction later tonight, but rest assured this twitter poll does not weigh into my prediction

[kiwi4353]

Anyone know if the Vancouver attack was politically motivated?

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Three weeks ago (April 5th), the LPC reached the zenith of their current support (at least as far as the CBC Poll Tracker is concerned). Since then, there has been a constant erosion.

So, what has been the change since then???

LPC: 44.2% -> 42.5% (-1.7%)
CPC: 37.3% -> 38.9% (+1.6%)
NDP: 8.1% -> 8.6% (+0.5%)
BLQ: 5.3% -> 6.0% (+0.7%)
GRN: 2.2% -> 1.9% (-0.3%)
PPC: 2.0% -> 1.4% (-0.6%)
OTH: 0.8% -> 0.6% (-0.2%)

- Disaster for the PPC and GRN.
- Poillievre has been doing some damage with his campaign, and both Singh and Blanchett have been making some inroads.
- I am not surprised thet there has been some downward drift for Carney. He is not a professional politician, and his campaign has been low key. Also, there have been far more Conservative adverts in the media than LPC ads.

Still, the drift has not been that great, and it is too late for any further changes. It will still be an LPC majority, but, not a 200 seat supermajority.

I have heard at least two carney ads for every one conservative ad… the conservative ad at least acknowledges Canadas current challenges while carneys is all about trump, which is the most challenging thing Canadians will see in this lifetime apparently… like covid never happened lol.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Hecate

I have heard at least two carney ads for every one conservative ad… the conservative ad at least acknowledges Canadas current challenges while carneys is all about trump, which is the most challenging thing Canadians will see in this lifetime apparently… like covid never happened lol.

The fact that you don’t see Trump and his sovereignty and trade threats as the biggest threat tells me you live in a cpc echo chamber.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

The fact that you don’t see Trump and his sovereignty and trade threats as the biggest threat tells me you live in a cpc echo chamber.

Why do you have to respond with an insult? Why can’t you just acknowledge his opinion and provide your counter argument? The confrontation between liberal supporters and conservatives doesn’t need to be such a mudslinging contest. He could respond to you by simply you living in Liberal echo chambers, which is equally as divisive.

In my opinion, the worst of Trump and his threats is over. It’s a matter of stick handling current circumstances, properly managing and leveraging our resources, building better trading partners around the world, improve trade across the country between provinces, and building up our military, all in response to the past 2 months acknowledging we are much too dependent on the USA, especially when they have politically unstable leadership…that’s what our next leader needs to focus on.

[Marshsparrow]

I really think it will depend on who turns out to vote, if those people have a change of heart and how the vote splitting will play out. With it being so close I suspect that motivates on both sides for higher voter turnout.

There was no seismic mistake in this last week.

If NDP and BQ vote stay low, Liberals win. If it increases, then it will be a toss up. If a higher voter turnout amongst youth - that may be a wildcard.

[casper]

Originally Posted by kiwi4353

Anyone know if the Vancouver attack was politically motivated?

Reports from the police are no. They have said they believe it mental health.

Singh attended the event earlier in the day.

Carney will be in Vancouver this evening, he is expected to meet up with Ebby to be with the local community. Sounds like the local mass with have Singh, Ebby and Carney in attendance.

Reports are the Liberal rally in Vancouver and Calgary have been cancelled as result.

Good to see the PM and leader of the NDP putting there responsibilities as PM and opposition leader ahead of campaigning.

[Loco101]

PP attended and spoke at a Filipino-Canadian church in Mississauga today.

Definitely a sad thing that happened yesterday.

[casper]

Looks like 22 minutes also has a Conservative video.

As we suspected, the conservative would not return the e-mails and calls from 22 minutes. So they had to go undercover.

• Video Link

[Loco101]

Here are the odds according to Canada 338 of each party leader's chances of winning in his/her riding:

Carney: greater than 99%

Poilievre: 90%

Singh: 2%

Blanchet: 99%

May: 41%

Bernier: less than 1%

The only one I kind of question is Blanchet. The prediction has him getting 47% of the votes in his riding when he got 53.5% last time is a bit questionable. It's not predicting much movement from him to the LPC candidate which surprises me as they predict 32% for the LPC, 14% for the CPC and 5% for NDP. In my opinion it should be 95% for Blanchet as a huge LPC surge could make it winnable for the LPC candidate. The riding did go NDP in both 2011 and 2015.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Here are the odds according to Canada 338 of each party leader's chances of winning in his/her riding:

Carney: greater than 99%

Poilievre: 90%

Singh: 2%

Blanchet: 99%

May: 41%

Bernier: less than 1%

The only one I kind of question is Blanchet. The prediction has him getting 47% of the votes in his riding when he got 53.5% last time is a bit questionable. It's not predicting much movement from him to the LPC candidate which surprises me as they predict 32% for the LPC, 14% for the CPC and 5% for NDP. In my opinion it should be 95% for Blanchet as a huge LPC surge could make it winnable for the LPC candidate. The riding did go NDP in both 2011 and 2015.

That's absolutely absurd for Singh... like holy crap. I knew he was at risk, but 2% chance... just wow.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Here's my prediction:

LPC: 43% (176 seats)
CPC: 41% (132 seats)
NDP: 8% (8 seats)
BQ: 6% (24 seats)
GRN: 1% (2 seats)
PPC: 1% (0 seats)


And to add to that, in Atlantic Canada:

LPC: 55% (25 seats)
CPC: 38% (7 seats)
NDP: 6% (0 seats)

On one hand I'm really bullish on the CPC in rural NL, on the other hand I just want to take the easy way out and predict 7 LPC seats. Sticking to my gut feeling in those rural districts has done me well in the past, so I'll do it again. I really want to give Terra Nova-The Peninsulas to the CPC as well, but I suspect they may lose it by a very slim margin.

[ssiguy]

BC has proven to be the most unpredictable in this election and I don't think they will get over 18 seats. The NDP has a stronger base here than anywhere else in the country and that only hurts the Liberals. While I think the NDP would be happy to get even 3 seats in the province, it's their impact on the other ridings that count. They still have enough support that the Tories could win several seats in GV/FV by a split in the Liberal/NDP support.

For me, I still think it will be a Liberal majority but not an overwhelming one and they will come out with around 180 seats with the following: AC...26, Quebec...40, Ontario...82, Man/Sask/North...10, Alberta...5, and BC...17.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

The fact that you don’t see Trump and his sovereignty and trade threats as the biggest threat tells me you live in a cpc echo chamber.

And you clearly live in a liberal one.

Because you refuse to acknowledge that Trump likes your precious carney.