Canadian Federal Election

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 42.5%, 189 seats
CPC - 38.7%, 125 seats
BLQ - 6.0%, 23 seats
NDP - 8.6%, 5 seats
GRN - 2.2%, 1 seat
PPC - 1.4%, 0 seats

LPC is now down 15 seats from there max, but, still well within majority territory. I think time has run out for the CPC, especially given the heavy turnout at the advance polls.

These polls mean nothing. The Liberals will win by 70 seats, and there is nothing any of the CPC simps can do about it.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

This is so offensive I hardly know where to start.

You are stating that only the Liberals understand democracy and voting for PP is the equivalent of voting for Hitler, Mussolini, or Franco. This clearly exemplifies how you know very little about either democracy or fascism.

On the contrary, YOU know nothing about fascism.

The Trump Administration can now be called a fascist Government, and nearly every scholar will agree. Considering PP wants to import most of Trump's ideas, it's very likely Canada will follow suit, if we elect the Conservatives.

I guess you are not familiar with World history. That is OK. I have read that the average Liberal voter is far more educated than the average Conservative voters, and less likely to fall for misinformation.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by FrAnKs

It’s an attempt just before election day to call separatists back home.

It's a desperate move by a desperate irrelevant politician. Most Quebecois are an integral part of Canada, and they all know that Canada being annexed by America, would mean that Quebec would be nothing but a glorified Puerto Rico, stripped of it's language laws and culture.

We may have our differences, but Quebec will always be a part of Canada. The percentage of Quebecois who want to separate from Canada is at a historical low, thanks to Trump.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by lio45

Correct (right now), and the Bloc aims to fix that. As you'd know if you paid attention. It's the whole point.

I don't think it's controversial to point out Czechoslovakia "wasn't a real country" (Austria-Hungary even worse, if you want to go back even further in time) while Czechia and Slovakia both are...? I mean, it's fairly simple to grasp...

By that measure, the UK is not a real country, and if you go back far enough you can say that about France, Italy, etc.. Is Belgium a real country, Switzerland?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

I ran population per riding numbers. The higher the number, the less voice that gets in Ottawa.

Look at the astounding disparity. I understand the territories, they're tiny. But look at PEI. It gets 3 seats, where the same number of Albertans only get one. Prior to redistribution, Alberta was 125k per seat. They got no voice. The Canadian electoral system is completely and utterly flawed and needs structural change. No matter who benefits from it.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/list&document=index338&lang=e
https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx/co...ir=cir/red/343list&document=index&lang=e

I will give you updated figures as of April 26:

Alberta: 1 in 134,993
BC 1 in 133,240
Ontario 1 in 132,989
Quebec 1 in 116,919
Manitoba 1 in 107,721
Nova Scotia 1 in 98,318
Saskatchewan 1 in 89,500
New Brunswick 1 in 86,136
Newfoundland 1 in 77,971
Yukon 1 in 47,236
NWT 1 in 45,099
PEI 1 in 44,805
Nunavut 1 in 41,801

[Architype]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I will give you updated figures as of April 26:

Alberta: 1 in 134,993
BC 1 in 133,240
Ontario 1 in 132,989
Quebec 1 in 116,919
Manitoba 1 in 107,721
Nova Scotia 1 in 98,318
Saskatchewan 1 in 89,500
New Brunswick 1 in 86,136
Newfoundland 1 in 77,971
Yukon 1 in 47,236
NWT 1 in 45,099
PEI 1 in 44,805
Nunavut 1 in 41,801

Is there a chart for seat representation, if allocated according to population alone? I guess PEI might have one, maybe two seats. Then, based on that, you could see if the outcome of the election would be different.

[BlackDog204]

We need to ban American-owned news from Canada. Postmedia is so awful, and bias that they should be forced to sell to Canadian news companies, or fold. If the news was impartial, Carney would win with 210 seats, and Alberta would pick up 11-12 seats in the Edmonton-Calgary areas.

Post media is an enemy of Canada, and I will be working with my local MP to introduce a private members bill to state that 2/3 of Canadian news and media should be owned by Canadians. I'm sick of Rebel News, National Post, Calgary Herald, Edmonton Journal, thee Sun Newspapers and others undermining our democratic principles.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

On the contrary, YOU know nothing about fascism.

The Trump Administration can now be called a fascist Government, and nearly every scholar will agree. Considering PP wants to import most of Trump's ideas, it's very likely Canada will follow suit, if we elect the Conservatives.

I guess you are not familiar with World history. That is OK. I have read that the average Liberal voter is far more educated than the average Conservative voters, and less likely to fall for misinformation.

Clearly everyone here is struggling understanding what fascism is because no, Trump is not fascist even though he has clear authoritarian tendencies and is a malignant narcissist. Leftist scholars will water down "fascism" to have it to apply to Trump trivializing actual fascism and lumping him in with Hitler or Mussolini. I think the US is headed down the wrong path which may or may not lead to authoritarianism but we're not there. Yet.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by JManc

Clearly everyone here is struggling understanding what fascism is because no, Trump is not fascist

Clearly, you do not know what fascism is.

The Trump Administration is by definition, of what a fascist regime is.

You are in denial, my friend.

Deportation of Americans to ICE concentration camps.
Arresting and imprisoning judges, who go against the constitution.
Threats to several sovereign nations.
Achieving objectives, which enable America to become a White Christian Nationalist state.
etc. etc.

It can be argued that the descent into fascism is worse in America, than it was in 1933 Germany.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Architype

Is there a chart for seat representation, if allocated according to population alone? I guess PEI might have one, maybe two seats. Then, based on that, you could see if the outcome of the election would be different.

Easy tp figure out.

There are 343 federal parliamentary ridings.
The population of Canada (population clock) is 41,630,918

This would give an average population per riding of 121,573

The seat allocation based on pure population (rounded) therefore would be:

ON - 134 seats (122 seats) +12 seats
QC - 75 seats (78 seats) -3 seats
BC - 47 seats (43 seats) +4 seats
AB - 41 seats (37 seats) +4 seats
MB - 12 seats (14 seats) -2 seats
SK - 10 seats (14 seats) -4 seats
NS - 9 seats (11 seats) -2 seats
NB - 7 seats (10 seats) -3 seats
NL - 5 seats (7 seats) -2 seats
PE - 2 seats ((4 seats) -2 seats
NT - 1 seat N/C
YT - 1 seat N/C
NU - 1 seat N/C

TOTAL - 345 seats (343 seats)

Consequences:

- Ontario would make out like a bandit, further centralizing power in the GTHA, mostly for the benefit of the Liberals.
- BC and AB would have improved representation, but, the gains for the CPC would only be modest if any (most new seats in BC would be in the lower mainland which is LPC/NDP territory).
- All other provinces would lose representation, making the federation even more unbalanced than it already is. In Atlantic Canada, the seat count would go down to 23 seats from 32 seats which would be catastrophic in terms of having regional voices heard in Ottawa. MB and SK would lose 6 seats which would mean large rural ridings becoming even bigger with less cohesion and commonality than before.

Is this worth it to give Alberta a measly four extra seats in Ottawa? I can't imagine it would make any difference in Alberta's political power at the federal level.

[bodaggin]

Well done MonctonRad and Blackdog. Beat me to it.

Now we should try it with a reduced MP count. Sayyyyy 150 or 200 MP's tops. One MP per 250,000 representation, ish. Shouldn't change much. Small provinces would still get a nice loud voice I guess...

[JManc]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Clearly, you do not know what fascism is.

The Trump Administration is by definition, of what a fascist regime is.

You are in denial, my friend.

Deportation of Americans to ICE concentration camps.
Arresting and imprisoning judges, who go against the constitution.
Threats to several sovereign nations.
Achieving objectives, which enable America to become a White Christian Nationalist state.
etc. etc.

It can be argued that the descent into fascism is worse in America, than it was in 1933 Germany.

Like I said, authoritarian tendencies but throwing around the "f-word" is total rage bait because "authoritarian" just doesn't quite whip up the masses in as much of a frenzy. The fact you think 2025 USA is worse than 1933 Weimar Republic tells be you probably need to check out a history book or dozen. Like I said, I do think the US is trending away from liberal democracy (well before Trump showed up) but there's a wide gulf between where we are now and fascism.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by JManc

Like I said, authoritarian tendencies but throwing around the "f-word" is total rage bait because "authoritarian" just doesn't quite whip up the masses in as much of a frenzy. The fact you think 2025 USA is worse than 1933 Weimar Republic tells be you probably need to check out a history book or dozen. Like I said, I do think the US is trending away from liberal democracy (well before Trump showed up) but there's a wide gulf between where we are now and fascism.

I think you really need to learn history. Perhaps agree to disagree, however it's quite obvious that you cannot admit that you are wrong. Coincidentally, this sentiment existed in Europe in the mid 1930s. "Hitler is not that bad." Hey he saved Germany from Communism. Give him what he wants, and it will placate him. etc. etc.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I think you really need to learn history. Perhaps agree to disagree, however it's quite obvious that you cannot admit that you are wrong.

I've studied history and I know what "fascism" is. What it is not..is a throw-a-way term to conveniently hurl at things you don't like. The world is littered with illiberal, corrupt and morally bankrupt leaders but somehow they escape being labeled a fascist. I've yet to hear the same people calling Trump a fascist referring to Putin or Xi as such.

Trump rode the wave of populism and political discontent permeating throughout the west including your country (e.g., Poilievre) while Hitler took advantage of a country ravaged by war and harsh treaty conditions. What would be Trump's Reichstag moment? Egg prices?

[Architype]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Easy tp figure out.

There are 343 federal parliamentary ridings.
The population of Canada (population clock) is 41,630,918

This would give an average population per riding of 121,573

The seat allocation based on pure population (rounded) therefore would be:

ON - 134 seats (122 seats) +12 seats
QC - 75 seats (78 seats) -3 seats
BC - 47 seats (43 seats) +4 seats
AB - 41 seats (37 seats) +4 seats
MB - 12 seats (14 seats) -2 seats
SK - 10 seats (14 seats) -4 seats
NS - 9 seats (11 seats) -2 seats
NB - 7 seats (10 seats) -3 seats
NL - 5 seats (7 seats) -2 seats
PE - 2 seats ((4 seats) -2 seats
NT - 1 seat N/C
YT - 1 seat N/C
NU - 1 seat N/C

TOTAL - 345 seats (343 seats)

Consequences:

- Ontario would make out like a bandit, further centralizing power in the GTHA, mostly for the benefit of the Liberals.
- BC and AB would have improved representation, but, the gains for the CPC would only be modest if any (most new seats in BC would be in the lower mainland which is LPC/NDP territory).
- All other provinces would lose representation, making the federation even more unbalanced than it already is. In Atlantic Canada, the seat count would go down to 23 seats from 32 seats which would be catastrophic in terms of having regional voices heard in Ottawa. MB and SK would lose 6 seats which would mean large rural ridings becoming even bigger with less cohesion and commonality than before.

Is this worth it to give Alberta a measly four extra seats in Ottawa? I can't imagine it would make any difference in Alberta's political power at the federal level.

Thanks for compiling that. As bad as it seems, and as detrimental to our country as it could be, it might not actually change much in terms of elections. Urban populations who vote mostly left wing would dominate more, and our country would become more politically progressive, although there is no guarantee that would not reverse in some hypothetical future. If you look at it, the only province to gain much would be Ontario. Alberta would not change much yet, and the entire Western provinces would net gain only two seats. I think our political representation is probably more accurately democratic than the Americans'.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by JManc

. I've yet to hear the same people calling Trump a fascist referring to Putin or Xi as such.

https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/the-triumph-of-american-fascism/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...3/end-times-fascism-far-right-trump-musk

https://spectrejournal.com/trump-fascism-and-the-authoritarian-turn/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-trumps-rhetoric-compares-to-historic-fascist-language

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/22/politics/trump-fascist-john-kelly/index.html

Now, will you finally admit that Trump is a fascist. Or will it take hundreds of thousands of innocent people to die in one of those notorious ICE detention camps in Central America?

[Architype]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/the-triumph-of-american-fascism/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...3/end-times-fascism-far-right-trump-musk

https://spectrejournal.com/trump-fascism-and-the-authoritarian-turn/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-trumps-rhetoric-compares-to-historic-fascist-language

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/22/politics/trump-fascist-john-kelly/index.html

Now, will you finally admit that Trump is a fascist. Or will it take hundreds of thousands of innocent people to die in one of those notorious ICE detention camps in Central America?

It's hard to classify Trump as a Fascist, and that's according to a lot of "experts" I have listened to, although they will agree that there are Fascist tendencies. So, you can't semantically pin someone down on this. Fascism requires a lot more ideological organization than Trump has at his disposal, but it's not hard to figure out that some of his sycophants might be well versed in that ideology, although the technocrats in his circle might be more into Ayn Rand than Hitler.

The other thing I should add, is that for any dictatorship to be successful, it must produce good results to make followers fall in line, I don't think that is happening anytime soon.

[trueviking]

So. Are we doing predictions? Price is right rules.

LPC: 198
CPC: 118
BQ: 21
NDP: 7
GPC: 1


Bonus pick. Liberal seats.

29 Maritimes
45 Quebec
88 Ontario
6 Manitoba
5 Alberta
22 BC
3 North

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Anybody else feel that PP has had more steam these last few days than Carney? I'm thining Carney was wise to go for the shortest possible campaign period.

He has gotten more media coverage. I've also noticed that a lot of people are going online both on local sites and national ones and writing comments saying that the polls are wrong and that the CPC is set for a landslide win. In Timmins I noticed today some vehicles with flags on them just like you'd see during the "freedom" convoy thing. It's not very common to see flag waving here. Then I noticed that many of the vehicles had signs for our Conservative candidate in the windows.

I do know that the Conservative goal behind the scenes is to try to stop the Liberals from winning a majority but act and comment as though the CPC is going to win big. Interestingly Tim Hudak and the Ontario PCs did the exact same things in 2014 and it obviously failed.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by trueviking

So. Are we doing predictions? Price is right rules.

LPC: 198
CPC: 118
BQ: 21
NDP: 7
GPC: 1


Bonus pick. Liberal seats.

29 Maritimes
45 Quebec
88 Ontario
6 Manitoba
5 Alberta
22 BC
3 North

One more Liberal seat than I'm predicting! You are guessing that the Bloc will win 22 while I'm guessing 13. I think you have a total of 345 but that actual total is 343.