Canadian Federal Election

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by lio45

On the other hand, I think it was better for the social fabric of my city's downtown, when I actually kinda was one. (Seriously!) As you correctly say, there is a lot of demand for cheap housing. But the city and province have zero mercy for that. My city recently tightened its regulations, and by doing that, made my next-to-last SRO illegal (it's why they will basically have no choice but to let me turn it into surface parking).

Sorry for veering off-topic a bit and BTW, I didn't took offense at what you said.

You are right, low cost housing is important, and if that means cheap/no amenities, less maintenance, less return for owners, it is what it is.

"Slumlord" has a bad name but if you are operating legally and fairly, you are ok. I grew up in a shitty rental that would qualift.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

The marginal delta in CPC support I would credit the Donald, that’s it, not because of “ silly comparisons is why the CPC lost support among "normie" centrist Canadian voters”

Alternatively:

PP and the CPC are extremely distasteful, in part due to silly conspiracy theory statements like the one you made. Despite that, PP was the preferable choice compared to JT, he was so unpopular.

Voters then jumped immediately to Carney. It shows they will abandon PP at any possible sign of hope elsewhere.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Alternatively:

PP and the CPC are extremely distasteful, in part due to silly conspiracy theory statements like the one you made. Despite that, PP was the preferable choice compared to JT, he was so unpopular.

Voters then jumped immediately to Carney. It shows they will abandon PP at any possible sign of hope elsewhere.

Alternatively:

Left wing supporters abandoned conventional support for their respectful parties to avoid PP becoming PM.

Sorry but a 42% to 39% CPC does not describe your assumption of “ Voters then jumped immediately to Carney. It shows they will abandon PP at any possible sign of hope elsewhere.”

I would agree with that statement if the CPC support experienced the same extreme collapse that the NDP and BQ experience, but that is far from reality.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

In my opinion, I respectfully completely disagree. And here’s why:

CPC support went from ~42% to ~ 39%, from its highest to its current.

NDP support went from ~20% to ~8%

LPC support went from ~25% to ~43%

BQ support went from ~9% to ~6%

GN support went from ~ 5% to ~ 2%

Basically, my interpretation, LPC simply gained support from all the drop in support from the left wing parties, and marginal gain from the ~3% drop in CPC.

So it’s not like the CPC lost its support, rather the LPC gained from the left, which the CPC would never have gotten support from anyway.

It’s the complete and utter collapse in every other party that has propped up the LPC. Every other election year 39% wins majority.

The marginal delta in CPC support I would credit the Donald, that’s it, not because of “ silly comparisons is why the CPC lost support among "normie" centrist Canadian voters”

Mulroney and Harper understood big tent Conservatism... PP didn't. You can't win with a unified left and centre. Pierre brought it on himself and will surely blame the loss on Justin - if only Justin had stuck around as PM!

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by travis3000

2025 Federal Election Prediction

Atlantic Canada
LPC= 26
CPC= 6

Quebec
LPC= 43
BLOC= 23
CPC= 12

Ontario
LPC= 80
CPC= 39
NDP= 3

Manitoba
LPC= 7
CPC= 6
NDP= 1

Saskatchewan
CPC= 14

Alberta
CPC= 33
LPC= 3
NDP= 1

British Columbia
LPC= 20
CPC= 18
NDP= 4

Territories= LPC+3

Total=

LPC= 182
CPC= 128
BLOC= 23
NDP= 9

Will be interesting to see how FOMO impacts some of the closer ridings. I think a lot of people know by now that a LPC majority is the most likely outcome according to the polls, and realize that it's probably better to have an MP that is a sitting member of that government, than to have a CPC, NDP or BQ MP.

I think Quebec voters will be especially pragmatic in this election, as they realize electing a significant cohort of LPC MPs is better for Quebec than electing a bunch of BQ opposition members.

For the sake of my own province, and especially my own riding I hope enough voters see the writing on the wall and be pragmatic about their vote... especially the NDP/Green voters.

• Video Link

I'm not sure how anyone could want to vote back in John Williamson if it's likely the Liberals are going to win a majority... while Karen Ludwig has quite an extensive resume dealing with international trade issues. Based on this panel of the 4 Saint John, NB area candidates, Karen Ludwig is pretty clearly the most experienced and articulate.

Wayne Long did a good job calling on JT to resign, and he's going to cruise to re-election, but he's not cabinet material, despite being an effective, popular MP. Karen Ludwig, however, is the type of candidate that actually has a chance of being named to cabinet in the reshuffle, possibly even at the expense of someone like Ginette Petitpas Taylor from Moncton who is perhaps a little too emblematic of the Trudeau brand in New Brunswick. Nonetheless, it will still be a big challenge for Ludwig to win her riding of Saint John-St. Croix.

Despite what the 338 projection has the riding at... there's essentially no local polling being done at the riding level, and even province specific data is pretty shoddy. The NB provincial election was only a few months back, and there where multiple upsets where Liberal candidates won, despite 338 having their chances to win the riding in the single digits.

If Saint John-St. Croix goes red on election night, I think it will be an early sign of a big night for the Liberals, as for many of the close ridings on the other side of the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia. In general, I think maritime voters, even rural voters, are more pragmatic, and more strategic in their voting, and see the benefit of electing a member of the government, rather than a member of the opposition.

Trade is a huge issue for people involved in agriculture and fisheries, which is a lot of the voters in this mostly rural riding... so even if many people in this riding lean conservative personally, I think many will vote for the Liberals as they see the benefit of electing an MP that will be part of a majority government... which is what happened the last time the Liberals won a majority. In 2015 the riding was something like 90% rural... the riding is now 70% rural/30% urban since the West Side of Saint John was added.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I don't think PP is going to lose his seat. Yes, it's in Ottawa but very much is the far away exurban/rural part of the huge "City" of Ottawa.

When PP loses this election, I do NOT think that the Party will ask him to step down. Let's be serious, he is still going to be getting about 37% of the vote which in any other election would be a majority gov't. Also, while PP isn't well liked by most, much of his and the Tories decline was beyond their control and had little to do with PP himself. In fact, the Tories were at about 41% and now being "down" to 37% is hardly much of a drop. The Tories have been hit by 4 unforeseen events that they can do nothing about........Trudeau's resignation, Carney as his replacement, the plunge in NDP and, to a lesser extent, the Bloc support, and of course Trump and his annexation threats. Trump has also allowed the Liberals to focus solely on leadership and the threats from him distracting from a decade of truly disastrous Trudeau reign.

In other words, the Tories really won't have a valid reason as to why he should step down. That said, I think he will voluntarily do so. After 2 years of expecting to be our next PM and everyone else thinking the same, to be held to Leader of the Opposition for at least another 4 years, wouldn't be very personally appealing.

I'm pretty sure that PP will win his seat. But there is a small chance that he won't win it if certain things happen. He is now party leader and not just running for MP and it's in Ottawa so it's hard to tell how that will be seen in the Carleton electoral district. Did he skip the riding's debate?

I also agree that there's a good chance he will remain as CPC leader as long as he wins his riding and if the party gets at least 35% of the popular vote across Canada. But it will probably be more like 37% and higher to guarantee he stays on. Also, the party probably doesn't want yet another leadership change for the foreseeable future.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by travis3000

2025 Federal Election Prediction

Atlantic Canada
LPC= 26
CPC= 6

Quebec
LPC= 43
BLOC= 23
CPC= 12

Ontario
LPC= 80
CPC= 39
NDP= 3

Manitoba
LPC= 7
CPC= 6
NDP= 1

Saskatchewan
CPC= 14

Alberta
CPC= 33
LPC= 3
NDP= 1

British Columbia
LPC= 20
CPC= 18
NDP= 4

Territories= LPC+3

Total=

LPC= 182
CPC= 128
BLOC= 23
NDP= 9

That's pretty much identical to a number of predictions I've seen lately. It should be fun to see how close we are to the actual outcome.

[Wigs]

Travis, you missed the Green Party. They will have at least one seat maybe two or three even.
In Ontario, that would probably be Mike Morrice representing Kitchener Centre
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Morrice

[BlackDog204]

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Honestly, while I see Singh going soon after election night too; I would say he had a better chance to justify staying as leader than PP did. Sure NDP support completely vanished this election; but that arguably is more beyond his control than the factors leading to the CPC collapse.

Singh's still out regardless, but he could justify staying more than PP could IMO.

Are you kidding? Singh and the NDP's current problems are completely self-inflicted. When Trudeau & the Liberals were at 20% and Singh tore up their agreement and said that the Liberals have lost the trust of Canadians, the NDP were looking at doubling their seat count and making major inroads into the GTA/AC/GM they, should have pulled the plug but they CHOOSE not to. They made a conscious decision to prop up the Liberal gov't for reasons unknown. Singh would have easily won his own seat and guaranteed himself his pension regardless. Now the NDP are going to be ecstatic just to lose only half their seats and won't even have Official Party status.

The NDP's decline is due to the stupid choices they made while PP's decline was mostly due to Trudeau resignation, Carney getting the leadership nod, and Trump's antics.............things he has no control over. The real question is not will Singh resign but rather why they kept him around for so long in the first place as he proved himself to be an electoral failure.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

In my opinion, I respectfully completely disagree. And here’s why:

CPC support went from ~42% to ~ 39%, from its highest to its current.

NDP support went from ~20% to ~8%

LPC support went from ~25% to ~43%

BQ support went from ~9% to ~6%

GN support went from ~ 5% to ~ 2%

Basically, my interpretation, LPC simply gained support from all the drop in support from the left wing parties, and marginal gain from the ~3% drop in CPC.

So it’s not like the CPC lost its support, rather the LPC gained from the left, which the CPC would never have gotten support from anyway.

It’s the complete and utter collapse in every other party that has propped up the LPC. Every other election year 39% wins majority.

The marginal delta in CPC support I would credit the Donald, that’s it, not because of “ silly comparisons is why the CPC lost support among "normie" centrist Canadian voters”

There’s definitely truth to this but for a while there the CPC was polling well up in the mid-40s. And it’s also true that the moment a non-Trudeau option appeared, that soft CPC support vanished, and the rest of the left/centre coalesced around the Liberals because they disliked the Conservatibe leader so much. So while it’s misleading to say that the Conservatives dropped 25 points from their peak or whatever (it’ll be 10 at the outside and probably less) it is true that the party was prepared for a change in circumstances, and was saddled with a leader a plurality of Canadians find distasteful.

[cranes]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/kitchener/article/liberal-leader-mark-carney-makes-brief-stop-in-cambridge/
Liberal Leader Mark Carney makes brief stop in Cambridge
By Shelby Knox Published: April 25, 2025 at 8:47PM EDT

Ahead of Monday’s federal election, Liberal Leader Mark Carney made a stop in Cambridge Friday night.

Carney’s bus pulled up in front of Monigram Coffee Roasters on Ainslie Street. As he stepped into the store, he was greeted by applause.

This is Carney’s second stop in Waterloo Region, after a rally in Kitchener in March...

Liberal Leader Mark Carney appeared at Monigram Coffee Roasters in Cambridge, Ont. on April 25, 2025. (Alexandra Holyk/CTV News)

[BlackDog204]

Please someone tell me Carney plans to visit his home province during the weekend. There are so many toss-up ridings in Edmonton and Calgary. I'd love to see the Liberals win most of Edmonton and Calgary.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Travis, you missed the Green Party. They will have at least one seat maybe two or three even.
In Ontario, that would probably be Mike Morrice representing Kitchener Centre
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Morrice

I'm assuming he was giving the Greens 1, since his total is 342 and there are actually 343, but I didn't know each provincial total off the top of my head.

[Mr Tall Forehead]

Wow. The Con commercials targeting white seniors during NHL playoffs are just cringy.

[BlackDog204]

Canada is done as a nation, if we elect Poilievre and the Conservatives. Say goodbye to the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. If one wants to see how Canada will look under Poilievre's watch, spend a year in Alberta under the CPC.

The FBI just arrested a Circuit Court Judge for no reason, and now she sits in a prison, without any charges announced. This is headed our way, if the Conservatives attain power.

A vote for Poilievre is a vote for fascism.
A vote for Carney is a vote for Democracy.

Choose wisely, my fellow Canadians.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Canada is done as a nation, if we elect Poilievre and the Conservatives. Say goodbye to the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. If one wants to see how Canada will look under Poilievre's watch, spend a year in Alberta under the CPC.

The FBI just arrested a Circuit Court Judge for no reason, and now she sits in a prison, without any charges announced. This is headed our way, if the Conservatives attain power.

A vote for Poilievre is a vote for fascism.
A vote for Carney is a vote for Democracy.

Choose wisely, my fellow Canadians.

Way over the top there. "The FBI on Friday arrested a judge whom the agency accused of obstruction after it said she helped a man evade US immigration authorities as they were seeking to arrest him at her courthouse.

The county circuit judge, Hannah Dugan, was apprehended in the courthouse where she works in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at 8.30am local time on Friday on charges of obstruction. Dugan appeared briefly in federal court in Milwaukee later on Friday morning before being released from custody. Her next court appearance is 15 May."

The accurate version of what happened is unsettling enough, you don't need to make things up.

[casper]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Canada is done as a nation, if we elect Poilievre and the Conservatives. Say goodbye to the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. If one wants to see how Canada will look under Poilievre's watch, spend a year in Alberta under the CPC.

The FBI just arrested a Circuit Court Judge for no reason, and now she sits in a prison, without any charges announced. This is headed our way, if the Conservatives attain power.

A vote for Poilievre is a vote for fascism.
A vote for Carney is a vote for Democracy.

Choose wisely, my fellow Canadians.

I think Daniel Smith has demonstrated that the system in Canada is capable of following the rule of law and legal independence even when the party in power would rather do otherwise.

She was elected on the promise of issuing pardons and dropping charges for those involved in COVID charges. Once she was in power she discovered that the Premier (and the PM) don't have the same influence.

I also don't know how far Poilievre will go. I hope there is a line he simply will not cross.

In comparison Trump has demonstrated there is no line.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The FBI just arrested a Circuit Court Judge for no reason, and now she sits in a prison, without any charges announced. This is headed our way, if the Conservatives attain power.

Further to the above usual disinformation, the CNN legal guy Elie Honig said it was a crime.

Apparently this post also wants to further the left's war on women, because the accused was facing domestic-battery charges.

Carney is going to win the election there's no need to lie.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by casper

In comparison Trump has demonstrated there is no line.

For some posters here there is no line