Canadian Federal Election - Page 354

elly63 · #**7061** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 6:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I'm sure Carney is going into this with his eyes fully open. He knows he's coming in as a PM that is going to have to make some very hard decisions and pick fights that will make a lot of people unhappy.

Considering he's coming in at the end of a 10 year Liberal reign already, he should be well aware he's leading a party on borrowed time, so he should make the most of it. Make the hard choices someone who cares about reelection might otherwise dodge, and do his best to clean things up in general for the future.

In '29, he'll be given the boot; that's a given Hopefully the CPC will have regained a bit of sanity so their tenure won't be too bad, and the NDP have rebounded enough to be a valid safe haven and counterbalance to the Tories.

As for PP; I'm positive his days are numbered, even if he wins his seat. Failure is not acceptable for the Big-2 parties, and PP will have been in charge during the biggest CPC failure since they collapsed to 2 seats. Hopefully they take some lessons from this, to be somewhat less on the attack and to better promote their policies in general while tacking a bit more towards the centre. Their Alberta/SK wing will be an anchor pulling them down though so that will be rough.

Agree with this as well except for the "CPC failure" part . Circumstances failed them. Sure they made some mistakes on the campaign trail but that was long after a trail of circumstances was digging the big hole for them. Carney walked into a perfect storm of circumstances that benefited him which in the end might be his downfall.

WarrenC12 · #**7062** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 6:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by elly63

Agree with this as well except for the "CPC failure" part . Circumstances failed them. Sure they made some mistakes on the campaign trail but that was long after a trail of circumstances was digging the big hole for them. Carney walked into a perfect storm of circumstances that benefited him which in the end might be his downfall.

CPC had just as much time to prepare for Trump, and this election, as the Liberals did.

The CPC was crowing about bringing down the government for most of 2024 and their eventual election platform is a bit of a soft turd. No excuses there.

Drybrain · #**7063** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 6:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy

When PP loses this election, I do NOT think that the Party will ask him to step down. Let's be serious, he is still going to be getting about 37% of the vote which in any other election would be a majority gov't. Also, while PP isn't well liked by most, much of his and the Tories decline was beyond their control and had little to do with PP himself.

A great deal of their initial surge also had little do do with him too, though--it was because people were really finished with the Trudeau-era Liberals. Even when the Conservatives were racking up huge polling leads, Poilievre's personal popularity was so-so at best.

Marshsparrow · #**7064** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 6:36 PM**

Well the election isn't over and nothing is a guarantee but the sorry excuses for PP and the CPC have already started.

10 years of Liberals and they can't deliver a "change campaign". 2+ years of campaigning. Out-fundraising all political parties combined x at least 2. 25% lead in the polls. Burning bridges with provinces and local associations. More effort securing US influencers. Calling us stupid. And the Trump-effect that they could have easily pivoted on. All for three word slogans...

I'll never forgive PP for what he did to OToole, Brown and with the Convoy - I truly hope like no other past CPC leader that they pull the plug on this absolute failure - after 20+ years living off the taxpayer I will be interested to see what kind of job he can actually land.

travis3000 · #**7065** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 6:43 PM**

2025 Federal Election Prediction

Atlantic Canada
LPC= 26
CPC= 6

Quebec
LPC= 43
BLOC= 23
CPC= 12

Ontario
LPC= 80
CPC= 39
NDP= 3

Manitoba
LPC= 7
CPC= 6
NDP= 1

Saskatchewan
CPC= 14

Alberta
CPC= 33
LPC= 3
NDP= 1

British Columbia
LPC= 20
CPC= 18
NDP= 4

Territories= LPC+3

Total=

LPC= 182
CPC= 128
BLOC= 23
NDP= 9

Taeolas · #**7066** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 6:46 PM**

The only factor that was outside PP's control was the garbage spewing from south of the border. Everything else is either basically because of him (Justin stepping down) or could have been predicted, or at least adapted to when it was obvious what was going on (NDP/BQ/Green support collapsing).

Ultimately, when the dust settles, PP will be known as the Guy in Charge of the CPC when they blew a Sure Thing and couldn't even secure a minority government out of it. If the LPC get a Majority as it looks like, then he'll be an even bigger failure.

The Party may not technically boot him out, but him "Stepping down as leader of the CPC" will be announced probably by the end of next week.

Really, the CPC should have been ready for all of this. They've been preparing to take over for years. The Liberals changing leaders should not have been a huge surprise (maybe unexpected but not insurmountable). Even the garbage spewing from the White House shouldn't have been a problem. They SHOULD have been reading the writing on the walls and shifted tactics as soon as Justin stepped down (and especially as soon as the 51st State crap started coming out). Toning down the GOP-style attack ads, and finding new angles to attack that haven't been run into the ground over the past 2 years would have been a major boost to them, or at least would have kept the Liberals more contained. Not doing their big ad push until after Advance polls may also be a factor (granted I haven't heard any ad push from the Liberals, at least not on local radio; every commercial break on the other hand has a CPC ad).

Ultimately, this failure is going to fall on PP's shoulders, and excuses that "no one could see it coming" won't cut it.

He's going to be out the door before the last red confetti drops in Liberal Party HQ.

Marshsparrow · #**7067** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 7:05 PM**

and the CPC needs to rid themselves of Jenni Byrne.

Hackslack · #**7068** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 7:07 PM**

Ya… I don’t understand how PP didn’t get the NDP voters support, instead the NDP voters decided to back Carney, essentially to ensure PP didn’t win…. Next time the right wing needs to figure out how to get left wingers support…

Any other year the 38-39% support wins majority

While the LPC and NDP demonize Donald Trump, it is because of Donald Trump you and your cronies still hold power. You should thank Donald Trump.

Just an obeservation of the reality of the situation.

Here’s to many many more years of massive deficits, and a boom in Brookfield stock price, thanks to Carney’s massive government home building program.

Taeolas · #**7069** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 7:11 PM**

Honestly, while I see Singh going soon after election night too; I would say he had a better chance to justify staying as leader than PP did. Sure NDP support completely vanished this election; but that arguably is more beyond his control than the factors leading to the CPC collapse.

I also see them rebounding strongly in '29 too, as all that support that fled to the sane leadership of Carney will return home for a (hopefully) more normal campaign. They will probably end up with a seat count higher than they have now in '29 because the Liberals will be booted, and the Left is going to put their vote in a non-Liberal or Conservative choice.

Singh's still out regardless, but he could justify staying more than PP could IMO.

YOWetal · #**7070** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 7:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taeolas

The only factor that was outside PP's control was the garbage spewing from south of the border. Everything else is either basically because of him (Justin stepping down) or could have been predicted, or at least adapted to when it was obvious what was going on (NDP/BQ/Green support collapsing).

Ultimately, when the dust settles, PP will be known as the Guy in Charge of the CPC when they blew a Sure Thing and couldn't even secure a minority government out of it. If the LPC get a Majority as it looks like, then he'll be an even bigger failure.

The Party may not technically boot him out, but him "Stepping down as leader of the CPC" will be announced probably by the end of next week.

Really, the CPC should have been ready for all of this. They've been preparing to take over for years. The Liberals changing leaders should not have been a huge surprise (maybe unexpected but not insurmountable). Even the garbage spewing from the White House shouldn't have been a problem. They SHOULD have been reading the writing on the walls and shifted tactics as soon as Justin stepped down (and especially as soon as the 51st State crap started coming out). Toning down the GOP-style attack ads, and finding new angles to attack that haven't been run into the ground over the past 2 years would have been a major boost to them, or at least would have kept the Liberals more contained. Not doing their big ad push until after Advance polls may also be a factor (granted I haven't heard any ad push from the Liberals, at least not on local radio; every commercial break on the other hand has a CPC ad).

Ultimately, this failure is going to fall on PP's shoulders, and excuses that "no one could see it coming" won't cut it.

He's going to be out the door before the last red confetti drops in Liberal Party HQ.

Yes there were many voices (including Bruce Anderson who was on the Mandsbridge youtube panel before the election) warning about this. Mostly liberal to centrists but still warning that the way he was framing the election was dangerous should things change. The incredible arrogance with provincial counterparts and out of favor MPs was also a mistake.

I disagree he will resign. His live work is to be PM and will fight like hell to survive to fight another day. The recent churn might give him some breathing room and his refusal to tack to the centre probably helps him too. I think his argument will be if you ditch me you will get a fake conservative like Ford or Houston.

lio45 · #**7071** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 7:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Rents wouldn't be high, because rents are a function of house prices.

Rent prices lag house prices. If house prices rise, homeowners are chased out of the ownership market, opting to rent, driving up rent prices.

Completely incorrect. As we saw in 2008, when house prices double, renters who previously couldn't hope to afford houses start buying them, rental vacancy rates rise up to ~10%-15%, and landlords have to start offering free months in their competition to try to attract tenants, because everyone is now buying houses instead of renting.

(... one clue for you: interest rates.)

lio45 · #**7072** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 7:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

No they aren't. Rents are a function of demand for shelter.

Exactly, which is why for a long time 10-15+ years ago Vancouver's rents were fairly low (relatively speaking) while the property prices there were really high: compared to California and Seattle, Vancouver for a while had much cheaper rents but much higher property prices. Weird at first sight, but... it's a situation which is easily explained by the simple fact that "demand for a roof over one's head in Vancouver" is not the same thing as "demand for glass-and-steel bitcoin located in a money-launderers-friendly tax environment, Vancouver being very conveniently positioned for East Asia" at all.

In fact, the gap between rents and property prices is a pretty direct indicator of speculation in a given market (as cap rates start to matter less, and eventually even not at all). Without any speculation (i.e. without "hoping to resell to a sucker down the road for much more than you paid" as a viable strategy) then the acceptable ratio between revenues (rents) and property values would simply be similar everywhere.

Quote:

No you have this all backwards.

Landlords don't get to increase rents, they take what the market (renters) can offer them. Rents rise because places are scarce (lack of housing) and people need a place to live. A larger vacancy rate leads to landlords lowering rents to entice people to rent. People can afford their own place instead of needing room mates to afford rent for example.

"We don't want renters" is a ridiculous take. People choose different ways to live because of lifestyle, finances, and other reasons. Get your head out of your ass.

I await lio's take as resident SSP slumlandlord.

Correct, generally.

Thanks for the drive-by insult tho

lio45 · #**7073** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 7:36 PM**

[double post]

lio45 · #**7074** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 7:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

To the point: we need more housing.

Or less people.

I agree we should want to fix the supply and demand imbalance (well, I'd personally rather not, but speaking from a greater good perspective, I would readily admit we should), but that can be accomplished by working on the numerator or the denominator (or even both at the same time).

lio45 · #**7075** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 7:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

Mulcair also somewhat gleefully speculated that Singh could lose his seat as well.

With Mulcair as leader the NDP won 44 seats...

With Singh they'll be lucky to have 4...

Not a good trade the NDP made back then.

WarrenC12 · #**7076** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 8:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hackslack

a boom in Brookfield stock price, thanks to Carney’s massive government home building program.

Making these types of silly comparisons is why the CPC lost support among "normie" centrist Canadian voters.

WarrenC12 · #**7077** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 8:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

Thanks for the drive-by insult tho

I thought you admitted to being a slumlord? Somebody has to provide low rent housing alternatives right?

lio45 · #**7078** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 8:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I thought you admitted to being a slumlord? Somebody has to provide low rent housing alternatives right?

For a while I kinda was, but then I tore down a 3-story SRO building in 2022, destroyed another one last year, and will probably demolish my next-to-last SRO this year (a 4-story building from 1870), and my last remaining SRO building (~25 rooms, it's a pre-war hotel) shall be converted into college student housing (so no more whores there ever again. That one was the one O-Tac affectionately called my whorehouse.)

So, very soon no one will be able to call me a slumlord.

On the other hand, I think it was better for the social fabric of my city's downtown, when I actually kinda was one. (Seriously!) As you correctly say, there is a lot of demand for cheap housing. But the city and province have zero mercy for that. My city recently tightened its regulations, and by doing that, made my next-to-last SRO illegal (it's why they will basically have no choice but to let me turn it into surface parking).

Sorry for veering off-topic a bit

and BTW, I didn't took offense at what you said.

Gresto · #**7079** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 8:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Good to see that Poilievre is still focused on the most important things, like the strawman woke boogieman, and ending the carbon tax.

Verb-the-Noun!!!

It's all about the K.I.S.S. principle for his base.

Hackslack · #**7080** Posted **Apr 25, 2025, 8:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Making these types of silly comparisons is why the CPC lost support among "normie" centrist Canadian voters.

In my opinion, I respectfully completely disagree. And here’s why:

CPC support went from ~42% to ~ 39%, from its highest to its current.

NDP support went from ~20% to ~8%

LPC support went from ~25% to ~43%

BQ support went from ~9% to ~6%

GN support went from ~ 5% to ~ 2%

Basically, my interpretation, LPC simply gained support from all the drop in support from the left wing parties, and marginal gain from the ~3% drop in CPC.

So it’s not like the CPC lost its support, rather the LPC gained from the left, which the CPC would never have gotten support from anyway.

It’s the complete and utter collapse in every other party that has propped up the LPC. Every other election year 39% wins majority.

The marginal delta in CPC support I would credit the Donald, that’s it, not because of “ silly comparisons is why the CPC lost support among "normie" centrist Canadian voters”