Canadian Federal Election

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Yes. Housing inventories are literally at 10 year record highs man.

Inventory for sale has nothing to do with the amount of homes that are sitting empty.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hecate

How come no one is talking about the privy council report except the conservatives?

Upward mobility is dying in this country. Along with peoples hopes and dreams. They are predicting Canadians will be resorting to foraging for food and hunting to keep themselves fed by 2040.

This is the privy council! And you guys want the same people driving the bus… FFS

The myopia is astounding.

You posting this kind of nonsense is why nobody is talking about it. It's made up.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Inventory for sale has nothing to do with the amount of homes that are sitting empty.

Omg.

So tell me. If house prices fell by 50%, would you still be pounding the table that we need to build more homes? And that a housing "shortage" exists?

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

You posting this kind of nonsense is why nobody is talking about it. It's made up.

So the Governor Generals privy council, appointed by recommendation of the prime minister is pushing fake news…

You guys are priceless.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

From Statistics Canada:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250319/dq250319a-eng.htm

I will take one paragraph from the above. Note that it references 2022, and 2023 as well as 2024.


Note also this report from CIBC which thinks Stats. Can is underestimating growth:

https://thoughtleadership.cibc.com/artic...jections-are-we-repeating-past-mistakes/

That definitely helps to confirm 2023 as an outlier. But it would still be nice to reconcile the role of temporary workers that you raised before in those estimates. In the prior article you linked, it mentioned the number of foreign workers added in 2023 and combined them with the immigrants number to derive the total number of people added. But it didn't say how long the average work term is, how many previous work terms expired during that time frame, nor did it subtract the work terms ending from the ones being added. How many became permanent residents and got added to the immigrants number? And for those that did, were they double counted by being included in both categories? And perhaps most importantly, how many temporary residents from that year or prior years went back? And were they deducted from the total?

These questions are pretty important if one wants to include temporary workers as part of population growth or make claims about their affect on the housing market.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

Because as per usual - the same old sources are cherry picking pieces to suit their agenda


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/policy-horizons-report-2040-poilievre-1.7515683

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Omg.

So tell me. If house prices fell by 50%, would you still be pounding the table that we need to build more homes? And that a housing "shortage" exists?

If the price of homes fell by 50% because interest rates were 12% and no one could afford a mortgage at those rates/prices, it changes nothing. Are there more people looking for housing at a monthly rate they can afford then there are available options at that price? Then yes there is a housing shortage.

If food prices in a third world country were less than in Canada, but people were still starving because they can't afford those prices, then I would say that country has a food shortage. If those prices fell even more and people still couldn't afford them then I wouldn't say their food shortage was solved because the calculation of dollars per calorie is obviously still unbalanced.

[Nouvellecosse]

Yeah I did a brief search to see if I could find the actual Privy Council report and didn't see it. If it was published online it may be buried in some bureaucratic maze. But I did see a combination of sites claiming that it made dire predictions about the future along with a couple dissecting what it actually said.

For instance, a paragraph in a National Post article said, "Are these predictions? Not really. The report makes several suggestions about what the future could hold. In the past, Policy Horizons has gamed out the potential for various scenarios, including the outbreak of world war, an information realm dominated by misinformation and antibiotic resistance. Stefanovska said the report is “not a forecast nor a commentary on current or future policies. Rather, it concocts hypothetical futures as an exercise to help government prepare for all possible futures."

Which makes sense because it's always possible that the future to be bright, moderate, or dire depending on how various actors play out.

[casper]

Originally Posted by FrankieFlowerpot

Because as per usual - the same old sources are cherry picking pieces to suit their agenda


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/policy-horizons-report-2040-poilievre-1.7515683

Here is the report....

https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/20.../pdf/future-lives-social-mobility-en.pdf

It is a study that starts off with "Social mobility lies at the heart of what makes Canada", then goes on to explore what would happen if Social mobility were compromised.

Is "Social mobility" at risk? The report does not say that. What we should take away is low social mobility as a significant risk to society and therefore we should do things to mitigate it.

The same people who wrote this report also put together one that has a heat map of all the risks Canada faces and plots them based on likelihood vrs impact.

https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/disruptions/Disruptions_on_the_Horizon_2024_report.pdf

What is odd looking at that heat map is the risk with the highest likelihood is "People cant tell what is real and what is not."

I for one am reassured that someone in the federal government is mapping out all of these risks, studying what the impacts are what mitigation is required.

I am disappointed that the Conservatives are taking risk scenario studies under unlikely scenarios and taking them as statement of fact. Have Conservatives never worked in an organization that does enterprise risk management?

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Hecate

They are predicting Canadians will be resorting to foraging for food and hunting to keep themselves fed by 2040.

I'm already a hunter-gatherer.
I "hunt" the weekly grocery flyers for the best deals. Then I gather the items from the store(s)

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

If food prices in a third world country were less than in Canada, but people were still starving because they can't afford those prices, then I would say that country has a food shortage.

Canadian food prices are high, yet no one is saying there's a food shortage.

Why not?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

These questions are pretty important if one wants to include temporary workers as part of population growth or make claims about their affect on the housing market.

“TFWs are humans and therefore prefer a roof over their head, so they compete with everyone else for the same finite housing pool” is a pretty damn automatic conclusion about their “effects on the housing market”.

(Again, as Northern Light said, I’m not blaming them in any way whatsoever for competing for housing here, anyone in their shoes would do the exact same.)

Legal status doesn’t matter much: if there are 100 million people who physically live in a given jurisdiction and there are enough housing units for 80’million only, there’ll be a housing crisis, and if there are 100 million people but available housing for 120 million, housing will be affordable and only the really mentally ill would ever be homeless. Regardless of legal status of the 100 million people; they’re there, that’s what matters.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by casper

I am disappointed that the Conservatives are taking risk scenario studies under unlikely scenarios and taking them as statement of fact. Have Conservatives never worked in an organization that does enterprise risk management?

I'm not sure what would be worse. That they don't understand something as basic as risk assessment studies or that they're knowingly misleading (and scaring) people in a ploy for power. I guess I'll go with the former since if it's the latter. At least that would mean they're competent strategists and correct in how easily their buys this stuff uncritically.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

• Video Link

Their final update before the election...

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by lio45

“TFWs are humans and therefore prefer a roof over their head, so they compete with everyone else for the same finite housing pool” is a pretty damn automatic conclusion about their “effects on the housing market”.

(Again, as Northern Light said, I’m not blaming them in any way whatsoever for competing for housing here, anyone in their shoes would do the exact same.)

Legal status doesn’t matter much: if there are 100 million people who physically live in a given jurisdiction and there are enough housing units for 80’million only, there’ll be a housing crisis, and if there are 100 million people but available housing for 120 million, housing will be affordable and only the really mentally ill would ever be homeless. Regardless of legal status of the 100 million people; they’re there, that’s what matters.

If that's your takeaway then you missed 90% of my prior posts. You missed when i pointed out how we don't know the total number of temp workers in the country or their effect on population growth just by looking at the numbers coming in without also looking at the numbers leaving. So their status most certainly does matter since if you have 800k coming in one year and say, 600k leaving from a prior term ending, then the effect would be that accommodations are needed for an additional 200k people rather than the 800k figure alone would suggest. And you also missed when i pointed out that many temp workers are based outside housing crisis hotspots since many are agricultural or natural resource workers. And also missed when i pointed out that the accommodations temp workers need may be quite different than permanent residents. Mainly since it's much more reasonable for people to stay at dorm-like residences, work camps, or other temporary worker accommodations rather than conventional housing since it isn't meant to be long term and they may not bring their families (or choose to start families) depending on the work term duration. In other words, it may not be "the same" housing pool at all.

So no, it's certainly not as simple you suggest. Which is why i pointed out the need for more info to make sense of it.

[bolognium]

Originally Posted by casper

I am disappointed that the Conservatives are taking risk scenario studies under unlikely scenarios and taking them as statement of fact. Have Conservatives never worked in an organization that does enterprise risk management?

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I'm not sure what would be worse. That they don't understand something as basic as risk assessment studies or that they're knowingly misleading (and scaring) people in a ploy for power. I guess I'll go with the former since if it's the latter. At least that would mean they're competent strategists and correct in how easily their buys this stuff uncritically.

The CPC isn't dumb, they know exactly what they're doing. I would be shocked if this is anything but fearmongering and misinformation targeted at low-information voters.

Then again, I have many friends that fish and eat their catch. And I've gone out with a few friends on foraging hikes...

omg maybe things are already much worse than I realize?!

[BlackDog204]

Tensions with N.S. premier simmered as Poilievre made his sole stop in the province
Sources say a top Conservative adviser reprimanded Houston’s team last year

Poilievre's sole campaign trip to Nova Scotia ended without meeting Premier Tim Houston, who did not attend Poilievre's Trenton, N.S., rally just minutes from Houston's own provincial riding. While Houston had previously said he would stay out of the federal campaign, sources say there has been tension between the two leaders for months.

During last year's provincial election, Houston told reporters he would not be inviting Poilievre to campaign with him, saying he's not a member of any federal party.

--snip--

Four provincial sources, who CBC News is not naming because they weren't authorized to discuss internal party matters, told CBC News that soon after, Houston's staff received a phone call from Conservative national campaign director Jenni Byrne.

The sources claim Byrne told Houston's team that if Poilievre went on to become prime minister, they would not lift a finger to help the provincial party. The call changed the relationship between the two camps, according to sources.

On the eve of Poilievre's visit, Houston released a campaign-style video on social media, prompting some to wonder whether he was eyeing Poilievre's job.

source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/houston-poilievre-election-1.7518196

[FrankieFlowerpot]

Originally Posted by bolognium

The CPC isn't dumb, they know exactly what they're doing. I would be shocked if this is anything but fearmongering and misinformation targeted at low-information voters.

Then again, I have many friends that fish and eat their catch. And I've gone out with a few friends on foraging hikes...

omg maybe things are already much worse than I realize?!

their own base?
Surely they are preaching to the converted when pushing this stuff.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Tensions with N.S. premier simmered as Poilievre made his sole stop in the province
Sources say a top Conservative adviser reprimanded Houston’s team last year

Poilievre's sole campaign trip to Nova Scotia ended without meeting Premier Tim Houston, who did not attend Poilievre's Trenton, N.S., rally just minutes from Houston's own provincial riding. While Houston had previously said he would stay out of the federal campaign, sources say there has been tension between the two leaders for months.

During last year's provincial election, Houston told reporters he would not be inviting Poilievre to campaign with him, saying he's not a member of any federal party.

--snip--

Four provincial sources, who CBC News is not naming because they weren't authorized to discuss internal party matters, told CBC News that soon after, Houston's staff received a phone call from Conservative national campaign director Jenni Byrne.

The sources claim Byrne told Houston's team that if Poilievre went on to become prime minister, they would not lift a finger to help the provincial party. The call changed the relationship between the two camps, according to sources.

On the eve of Poilievre's visit, Houston released a campaign-style video on social media, prompting some to wonder whether he was eyeing Poilievre's job.

source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/houston-poilievre-election-1.7518196

Can't say I'm terribly concerned. In fact I'm relived that we haven't seen a trickle down of federal stuff here with things like the culture war nonsense seen in Alberta and NB (until NB tossed out their Conservative gov recently).

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

That definitely helps to confirm 2023 as an outlier. But it would still be nice to reconcile the role of temporary workers that you raised before in those estimates. In the prior article you linked, it mentioned the number of foreign workers added in 2023 and combined them with the immigrants number to derive the total number of people added. But it didn't say how long the average work term is, how many previous work terms expired during that time frame, nor did it subtract the work terms ending from the ones being added. How many became permanent residents and got added to the immigrants number? And for those that did, were they double counted by being included in both categories? And perhaps most importantly, how many temporary residents from that year or prior years went back? And were they deducted from the total?

These questions are pretty important if one wants to include temporary workers as part of population growth or make claims about their affect on the housing market.

If you examined the CIBC report to which I linked, it discusses how Stats. Can makes the calculations, for better or worse.......and in CIBC's estimation, why they're wrong.

They automatically count someone whose permit has expired as having left.

But they don't actually track physical departures.

CIBC seems confident that many people with expired permits are not actually leaving.