Canadian Federal Election

[ssiguy]

PP's idea of selling off federal lands and buildings, cutting CMHC red tape, and stopping infrastructure funding to cities that don't upzone is a good one and long overdue. This is true especially of the last point as it is the cities themselves that are often the biggest obstacle in getting housing built unless it's a monster home.

The Liberals look like they are going to now do the same but Carney is the only one talking about what is really needed to get those homes built.............modular housing. It is the ONLY way we are going to get out of this mess besides huge immigration cuts which are already taking place.

We have tried to double down on how we build housing and it hasn't accomplished a thing. He is correct in that we must create a "housing industry" based upon industrial policy. We don't build cars at site, one piece at a time like 120 years ago but somehow we still build houses that way. We could quadruple the number of SFH/townhomes/duplexes/triplexes within just a couple of years thru modular construction.

[ssiguy]

As far as PP's idea of putting people in jail, it's offensive but he does have a point in terms of the problems these homeless people create. Just because one is homeless does not give them the right to set up shop in our city parks, sidewalks, or public spaces. The people who complain that this is harsh are the same people who don't have to see it because they does live in their nice wealthy or suburban park areas and nor do they have downtown businesses whos entrance is blocked by a drug addict.

They should create large homeless shelter areas with small individual units like mini-Grandma suites. A warm and safe place to stay with a fridge/stove and central building with communal washrooms/entertainment/laundry. This has taken place in Kitchener and is very successful. Part of the reason people won't go into homeless shelters is because they are too damn dangerous. It can be used for people who need short-term acommodation or if someone wants to stay there for the rest of their lives, that's cool too.

Of course the cities will talk about it but rarely built them because everyone thinks it's a great idea but no one wants them in their neighbourhood. This is why they should be built in suburban industrial areas.........no NIMBYs to deal with yet still on bus routes.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by lio45

Well, *IF* the societal problem in question is "the Feds are choosing to let in 1+ million Fresh New Suckers per year and it appears that all of them would prefer a roof over their head, resulting in a crazy supply-demand imbalance and an acute housing crisis", then YES, in this specific case, it is directly caused by the people in charge of immigration in Ottawa.

Not rocket science... IMO...

That's the part I find frustrating about the housing and homeless discussions. It seems to conveniently forget that this is a global issue that affects numerous countries to varying degrees. Yes, it would be impossible for population growth not to have an impact. But the fact that the issue is intensifying in many other places at the same time strongly suggests that there's more to it than that. It is NOT just down to immigration.

For starters. Canada's population has been growing through immigration for decades, and while the rate has increased, it's inaccurate to suggest that we're letting in 1+ million per year. In 2020, the Trudeau government increased targets to 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021, 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023. Which is a lot, but it's not only far less than 1+ million per year, but must also be taken within the context that without immigration the national population would actually be declining due to our below replacement birth rates. So virtually all of Canada's population growth comes from immigration topping off our below replacement birth rates and part of the immigration numbers just replaces loses rather than causes growth.

Which is why the projected growth under the "high growth" scenario for 2021-2026 is about 1.4% per year. That's definitely an increase compared to the roughly 1% we're averaged per year for many decades, but is hardly "1+ million Fresh New Suckers per year." That may as well be lifted directly from a CPC campaign ad or something.

To be clear, I'm not saying it wasn't a mistake to increase immigration at the time. But I am rejecting the overly simplistic notion that this is the only relevant factor in the housing crisis.

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

PP's idea of selling off federal lands and buildings, cutting CMHC red tape, and stopping infrastructure funding to cities that don't upzone is a good one and long overdue. This is true especially of the last point as it is the cities themselves that are often the biggest obstacle in getting housing built unless it's a monster home.

The Liberals look like they are going to now do the same but Carney is the only one talking about what is really needed to get those homes built.............modular housing. It is the ONLY way we are going to get out of this mess besides huge immigration cuts which are already taking place.

We have tried to double down on how we build housing and it hasn't accomplished a thing. He is correct in that we must create a "housing industry" based upon industrial policy. We don't build cars at site, one piece at a time like 120 years ago but somehow we still build houses that way. We could quadruple the number of SFH/townhomes/duplexes/triplexes within just a couple of years thru modular construction.

Your obsession with modular housing is bordering on fanatic. Ya it can lower variable costs but it requires a level of scale and overhead that few builders have the appetite for. It also makes zero difference if there isn't an increase in developable land proportional to the construction capacity that your adding. If there are 5000 lots available per year, and 10,000 people who would buy a new home for $1.5 million, then none of those lots are going to have a modular home built on them.

[casper]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

As far as PP's idea of putting people in jail, it's offensive but he does have a point in terms of the problems these homeless people create. Just because one is homeless does not give them the right to set up shop in our city parks, sidewalks, or public spaces. The people who complain that this is harsh are the same people who don't have to see it because they does live in their nice wealthy or suburban park areas and nor do they have downtown businesses whos entrance is blocked by a drug addict.

They should create large homeless shelter areas with small individual units like mini-Grandma suites. A warm and safe place to stay with a fridge/stove and central building with communal washrooms/entertainment/laundry. This has taken place in Kitchener and is very successful. Part of the reason people won't go into homeless shelters is because they are too damn dangerous. It can be used for people who need short-term acommodation or if someone wants to stay there for the rest of their lives, that's cool too.

Of course the cities will talk about it but rarely built them because everyone thinks it's a great idea but no one wants them in their neighbourhood. This is why they should be built in suburban industrial areas.........no NIMBYs to deal with yet still on bus routes.

In addition to being offensive, it is also not his call and is not practical. The feds write the laws, they don't enforce them or make prosecution decisions. The courts are busy and they don't need a backlog of people being charged for living in tent cities.

This is a social services and health care problem. It is not a law enforcement problem.

A lot of municipal governments are creating great locally appropriate solutions around their local needs. The problem is there just not enough of these solutions.

PP talks about getting rid of red tape while at the same time imposing red tape around transit funding for municipal governments. There are 5,162 municipal governments in Canada. He now wants the federal government to review and make funding decisions based on local municipal bylaws.

Same thing with PP wanting to control "wokeness" at universities. For someone who talks about removing red tape he is doing a great job at proposing the creation of more red tape.

[bodaggin]

Immigration did not cause house prices to rise. In fact. When immigration was highest, house prices were falling.

Prices, in everything, rose due to a surplus of dollars.

It's a Keynesian cycle. The response to the current crisis creates the next crisis, while slowly melting away the currency over time.

[bodaggin]

The most frustrating part, is Pierre understands that inflation is the cause of high prices. He understands supply-side economics better than any Canadian leader in 50yrs, possibly ever. He was even playing with Bitcoin.

Then for some reason ~2yrs ago, he got carbon tax obsession. Instead of using his platform to teach voters about the monetary policy causing high prices, he confused them by pinning the carbon tax as the reason. Beating it like a dead horse. To this day, I still have no idea why he did this.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

The most frustrating part, is Pierre understands that inflation is the cause of high prices. He understands supply-side economics better than any Canadian leader in 50yrs, possibly ever. He was even playing with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is a joke. Look at the price compared to the S&P500. They follow the same pattern.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Bitcoin is a joke. Look at the price compared to the S&P500. They follow the same pattern.

It's certainly not a joke.

Since the 2022 macro lows, Bitcoin is up ~500%. The SPX is only up ~60%.

They move in sync because most global governments are eroding their currencies in tandem. That's why all asset prices are up: SPX, Bitcoin, Gold, Houses.

None of which are included in the CPI calculation either. Hence why CPI Inflation is always understated. This confuses the average voter who anecdotally knows prices are higher, but they can never easily prove it with a statistic.

[harls]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Bitcoin is a joke. Look at the price compared to the S&P500. They follow the same pattern.

Trust him, bro.

[harls]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

It's certainly not a joke.

Since the 2022 macro lows, Bitcoin is up ~500%. The SPX is only up ~60%.

They move in sync because most global governments are eroding their currencies in tandem. That's why all asset prices are up: SPX, Bitcoin, Gold, Houses.

None of which are included in the CPI calculation either. Hence why CPI Inflation is always understated. This confuses the average voter who anecdotally knows prices are higher, but they can never easily prove it with a statistic.

But bitcoin is decoupling from the USD. Oh right, That shithead in charge put everything into absolute chaos.

[dleung]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

We aren't doing well on the homelessness front. Neither are some of our peer nations. NB, what the hell is up with France?

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

That's the part I find frustrating about the housing and homeless discussions. It seems to conveniently forget that this is a global issue that affects numerous countries to varying degrees. Yes, it would be impossible for population growth not to have an impact. But the fact that the issue is intensifying in many other places at the same time strongly suggests that there's more to it than that. It is NOT just down to immigration.

For starters. Canada's population has been growing through immigration for decades, and while the rate has increased, it's inaccurate to suggest that we're letting in 1+ million per year. In 2020, the Trudeau government increased targets to 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021, 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023. Which is a lot, but it's not only far less than 1+ million per year, but must also be taken within the context that without immigration the national population would actually be declining due to our below replacement birth rates. So virtually all of Canada's population growth comes from immigration topping off our below replacement birth rates and part of the immigration numbers just replaces loses rather than causes growth.

Which is why the projected growth under the "high growth" scenario for 2021-2026 is about 1.4% per year. That's definitely an increase compared to the roughly 1% we're averaged per year for many decades, but is hardly "1+ million Fresh New Suckers per year." That may as well be lifted directly from a CPC campaign ad or something.

To be clear, I'm not saying it wasn't a mistake to increase immigration at the time. But I am rejecting the overly simplistic notion that this is the only relevant factor in the housing crisis.

These pesky facts aren't gonna stop the usual maple-MAGA suspects from insisting that Canada is broken by JT, or from rationalizing stances against immigration or multiculturalism that long predated the housing crisis

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by harls

Trust him, bro.

The other day he told us DOGE is good. Canada needs DOGE

[BlackDog204]

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by harls

But bitcoin is decoupling from the USD. Oh right, That shithead in charge put everything into absolute chaos.

Trump filled his diaper when he saw that his chaotic trade policy led to not only a market crash but a US dollar drop. Usually it's the other way around as people see the US dollar as a safe investment during economic turmoil.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I still think Liberal seat projections above 180 are too high. And that the BQ could get closer to 30 seats.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I still think Liberal seat projections above 180 are too high. And that the BQ could get closer to 30 seats.

Will the NDP actually be held to single digits? What a disaster.

[BlackDog204]

Looks like Poilievre may get Fanjoyed out of his riding in Carleton/

[casper]

Originally Posted by Wigs

The other day he told us DOGE is good. Canada needs DOGE

If we use DOGE as the inspiration it would be getting Kevin O'Leary (or someone like that) to have unrestricted access to all federal systems and to randomly fire people.

What a complete disaster and breach of privacy laws.

The best solution is to ensure PP never becomes PM.

Monday can't come soon enough.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I still think Liberal seat projections above 180 are too high. And that the BQ could get closer to 30 seats.

After the dust settles, the Liberals will probably win with 190 seats. Conservatives will be at 120, while the Bloc will have 23, NDP with 9, and Green with 1. Even the Ford PC Ontario party internal polling show a 14 points Liberal lead.