Canadian Federal Election

[BlackDog204]

The polls with one week to go.

EKOS and Lame street are garbage, so disregard. Ledger, Ipsos, Angus Reid, and Nanos are fairly accurate. Liberals up by an average of 6 points. The CPC needs to win by at least 2 percentage points to form Government.

[harls]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

If you think I'm being pedantic then you misunderstood what I'm saying. I'm not saying it was a poor choice of words to describe a valid criticism, I'm questioning the validity if the criticism.

Your argument seems to be that the Liberal housing plan is automatically bad because a similar plan didn't show strong enough results under Trudeau. But that assumes that the failure was because the plan was bad without considering that it may have just been poorly executed. Because if it was the latter, only minor tweaks would be needed by someone capable of identifying and correcting the flaws.

The flaws are the same as they were when JT was Prime Minister. This is recycled policy so there isn't much new to attack. Those past threads are easily searchable, but to summarize:

-Both unrealistic and unfortunately not sufficient. The LPC has not come close to meeting their housing targets in years past (JT proposed the exact same target last year), and even if they reach the goal it still would leave us well short of the CMHC's target.

- there is no mention of the type of housing being built. This country needs 300,000 3-bedroom homes far more than it needs another 500,000 tiny condos. The 500,000 is a vague empty promise with no timelines or details, purely meant to grab headlines.

-Just like with the housing accelerator, there is absolutely no chance municipalities will reduce their their DCs (let alone halve) in exchange for a paltry amount of cash from the Feds. They will take the money, the LPC will get their photo op, and they'll raise the DCs anyways. Pure fantasy.

-While it's nice that the government is promising to get back into the business of building deeply affordable housing (something they've been promising but failing to deliver for years), this is a very small part of the broader housing affordability issue. To make a meaningful dent in the latter, the amount of spending would need to be a hundred times over more than what they're promising which is beyond the fiscal capacity of any government. It's not realistic to expect a government developer to have the capacity to make any meaningful impact here, but the amount that the Liberals are spending here is barely even trying.

The most important thing the LPC would have done for housing affordability was to come to their senses with population growth, but aside from that Carney's announcements are essentially the status quo. We'll likely get lots of phot ops and press releases announcing deals with municipalities and home builders, but very little of those will actually result in housing being built. All in all, not surprising considering that this platform was created weeks before Carney even became leader.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

-

There is so much craziness in this thread on this topic but most of it seems irrelevant to the topic at hand the election. But when you say Canada should abandon Israel and make closer ties with the Muslim world based on values it's hard to imagine what you think those are.

Israel is obviously not deliberately starving or bombing peaceful refugee camps. That's ridiculous. If so they'd be able to wipe them out in one evening. Arguably they are recklessly pursuing their war aims without fulfilling their duty to protect civilians but even that is a grey area at worst. They are facing an enemy that blends in with civilians and aims to maximize their own civilian casualties at a rate that is really unprecedented in history. Now sure they have no other choice. They'd happily prefer to face the Israelis on an empty desert without a technological disadvantage but they don't have that option. They continue to wage asymmetric war because they can't accept that Israel was established. They lose more and more with every generation but can't accept this reality. In many ways this is very honorable. But most of the other populations that were expelled from their territories post WW2 have accepted reality. They might grumble like Hungary over last territory but they focus on what they have in building a nation.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Is anyone surprised it was a Conservative?

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal...1e790f6-07ad-4b1a-93f0-33772c5b886c.html

This is too perfect. Just voted now. Grey-haired woman in her sixties in the next line, undoubtedly a kind, friendly person, turned around and cheerily asked the people behind her "can we do a mock poll? ABC? ABC?"

A couple people nodded yes, and they proceeded to have the sort of snide conversation that normal people and non-lefties find nauseating. All the cliches, the usual stuff.

I'm not a freak or a social media hound, so no, I didn't whip out my phone. Yeah, I know the usual crew will chime in with "this never happened." And yeah, I know I don't have definitive proof.

Though this is rather in keeping with stereotypical profiles in politics, i.e. zealotry by conservatives is seen as genocidal colonialism and is reported to the Star, while zealotry by lefties is typically ignored.

This never happens. Or at the very least, no true Scottish leftie would ever do this.


https://nowtoronto.com/news/election-sig...-as-voters-head-to-the-polls-in-2-weeks/

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I enjoyed Scott Galloway's interview with Mark Carney. I also listened to most of Jordan Peterson's interview with Pierre Poilievre. If I didn't listen to all of it, it's because it was nearly 3 hours long, not because I think that Peterson or Poilievre are disingenuous.

Believe it or not, I'm one of those people who would not be upset if either PP or Carney won, and I don't think it comes from a position of ignorance like most other undecided voters this election.

There are many scenarios where I would have preferred the Conservatives to win.

The first is that a lot of the worst of Trudeau's cabinet won't be punished, but will win their seats and some of them will, inevitably, form part of Mark Carney's cabinet. I'm thinking people like Sean Fraser (who changed his mind and will seek re-election after all, because the winds are favourable), Chrystia Freeland and Marc Miller. These are controversial people and the analogy would be if Harper resigned in 2015 and Michael Chong became leader but that still meant John Baird and Jason Kenney won their seats and became senior cabinet ministers.

The second is that I think Poilievre would have been better at holding the tension between Western Canada and Ontario/Quebec better. His Quebec caucus would have been made up of people from majority Francophone parts of the province, not just MPs from the island of Montreal, and of course he would have swept Alberta and Saskatchewan and prominent ministers would have been from there. There may be one token Albertan cabinet minister if the Liberals win a seat there, but probably not two. Poilievre speaks better French and has a Quebecois wife. There's a bit more there there.

Finally, whether you think his solutions were well fleshed out or not, Poilievre was the only leader banging the drum on real domestic problems for the last two years, like housing affordability and crime/disorder. We can shove these aside temporarily while Trump is a more urgent problem, but eventually we have to come back to these things. Carney kind of has a plan for housing and I'm not sure PP's is any better, but on crime/disorder/drugs I sense that all the parties to the left of the Conservatives are gaslighting Canadians by sweeping these problems that all of us can see everyday under the rug.

Well said. Can't find anything to disagree with here.

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Anyway, I voted for Carney, but I had to really think about my vote.

Yeesh. Wot? At the very least, can I persuade you to vote for Pierre on election day? Like they say, vote early, and vote often!

[casper]

Originally Posted by Loco101

They are getting desperate when they are getting Harper to do an add. Still no CPC platform released so we don't know their full plan even though Harper says he does.

Interesting how they chose a playoff NHL game (or games?) to air it. Majority male audience and vast majority white. Harper mentions how both Carney and PP worked for him. Funny how he didn't actually say anything about Carney.

What is shocking about the Harper add is he is there saying, the only party with a plan is the Conservatives. The truth is the exact opposite. The Conservatives are the ones that for the past week are a day or two away from releasing a plan.

They could have at least had Harper say something that was factually true.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Immigration numbers are headed down, as are temporary and student visas. They will only go up again if the bodies are needed.

The Carney platform is capping the NPR population at 5%, which is still significantly higher than 2019 Trudeau.

The Carney cap for immigration of PRs is 1% of population, which would mean over 400K a year, again that's higher than 2019 Trudeau. Let's not pretend the excess immigration problem has been fixed.

So basically, Carney's just reverting back to the post-COVID baseline, and it's still a significant increase relative to the Harper years and the 2015 Trudeau agenda. Given that Sean Fraser is likely going to be in cabinet, if he gets his slimy hands again in the immigration portfolio, it's fair to wager we're going to see another round of immigration ponzi schemes take place.


Just to keep things in perspective, 5% NPR as promised by Carney is still higher than 2023 levels:



https://cdhowe.org/publication/skuterud-mahboubi-shrinking-canadas-npr-population-how-best-do-it/

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's part of the strategy. But it's so disingenuous and cynical to attack the Liberals on their deficit and not to put out their own costed platform. And I think a big part of the is likely because:

1) It'll probably be a 12 figure cumulative deficit (over $100B).

2) They won't be that different from the Liberals on defence spending despite the rhetoric.

3) They'll have to be honest about what they are cutting in there.

Yes and yes though I don't think electorally the defence spending number is a big issue. As for cuts they'll probably claim some ridiculous number in efficiencies. Releasing it later enables them to avoid having to defend that claim. There is a lot of centrist angst at the size of the Liberal budget. Announcing a much better headline number late this week will let that percolate for the centrist but low information voter but avoid getting challenged on how those savings will be realized.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

-

That is moderator worthy language, istm.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Mega Maple Maga cringe

Speaking of which...

[casper]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

The Carney platform is capping the NPR population at 5%, which is still significantly higher than 2019 Trudeau.

The Carney cap for immigration of PRs is 1% of population, which would mean over 400K a year, again that's higher than 2019 Trudeau. Let's not pretend the excess immigration problem has been fixed.

So basically, Carney's just reverting back to the post-COVID baseline, and it's still a significant increase relative to the Harper years and the 2015 Trudeau agenda. Given that Sean Fraser is likely going to be in cabinet, if he gets his slimy hands again in the immigration portfolio, it's fair to wager we're going to see another round of immigration ponzi schemes take place.


Just to keep things in perspective, 5% NPR as promised by Carney is still higher than 2023 levels:



https://cdhowe.org/publication/skuterud-mahboubi-shrinking-canadas-npr-population-how-best-do-it/

We need to work on growing the economy. That means more people.

On the immigration front over the next 4 years we have a major opportunity. There are all of these US residents that have North American experience, are just next door, many of them are even US citizens. We need to take advantage of that are get as many of those to migrate to Canada. We should also see a significant number of Canadian expats return from the US.

It will need to be carefully managed to ensure we can get new housing online as quickly as possible.

Look at it as an opportunity. We should be able to get the US best and brightest to come to Canada.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by harls

That smile truly is creepy AF. Also reminds me of this:

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by rousseau

This is too perfect. Just voted now. Grey-haired woman in her sixties in the next line, undoubtedly a kind, friendly person, turned around and cheerily asked the people behind her "can we do a mock poll? ABC? ABC?"

Random senior/voter at your polling station and an Election Worker tasked to be impartial and oversee a free and fair election are not the same thing.

The headline of the article O-tacular linked
Election worker reassigned after complaints she was trying to influence voters
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal...1e790f6-07ad-4b1a-93f0-33772c5b886c.html

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

The Carney platform is capping the NPR population at 5%, which is still significantly higher than 2019 Trudeau.

The Carney cap for immigration of PRs is 1% of population, which would mean over 400K a year, again that's higher than 2019 Trudeau. Let's not pretend the excess immigration problem has been fixed.

So basically, Carney's just reverting back to the post-COVID baseline, and it's still a significant increase relative to the Harper years and the 2015 Trudeau agenda. Given that Sean Fraser is likely going to be in cabinet, if he gets his slimy hands again in the immigration portfolio, it's fair to wager we're going to see another round of immigration ponzi schemes take place.


Just to keep things in perspective, 5% NPR as promised by Carney is still higher than 2023 levels:



https://cdhowe.org/publication/skuterud-mahboubi-shrinking-canadas-npr-population-how-best-do-it/

Below 5% (NPR) and below 1% (PR) by 2027. That language leaves room for downward adjustment.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Below 5% (NPR) and below 1% (PR) by 2027. That language leaves room for downward adjustment.

Who says Team Trudeau's intent is to adjust downward? Sean Fraser didn't get the memo last time he was in power.

There hasn't been any indication that Carney's looking to ramp down the targets.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

That is moderator worthy language, istm.

Agreed. This isn't a "The Jews" thing. It's a specific right wing government currently administering an individual country that happens to have a Jewish majority population. Antisemitism isn't the answer to anything, let alone to Islamaphobia or the problems in the middle east.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

We need to work on growing the economy. That means more people.

On the immigration front over the next 4 years we have a major opportunity. There are all of these US residents that have North American experience, are just next door, many of them are even US citizens. We need to take advantage of that are get as many of those to migrate to Canada. We should also see a significant number of Canadian expats return from the US.

It will need to be carefully managed to ensure we can get new housing online as quickly as possible.

Look at it as an opportunity. We should be able to get the US best and brightest to come to Canada.

Are we trying to grow the economy or trying to raise the well being of citizens of Canada? The real estate ponzi scheme and immigration QE is now failed. At least politically if not definitively economically. Carney has said we have tried for easy growth from population growth and now hard decisions need to be taken. It seems likely he keeps current targets at least for a first term.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by casper

We need to work on growing the economy. That means more people.

On the immigration front over the next 4 years we have a major opportunity. There are all of these US residents that have North American experience, are just next door, many of them are even US citizens. We need to take advantage of that are get as many of those to migrate to Canada. We should also see a significant number of Canadian expats return from the US.

It will need to be carefully managed to ensure we can get new housing online as quickly as possible.

Look at it as an opportunity. We should be able to get the US best and brightest to come to Canada.

This vision sounds grand and all, but too bad it doesn't hold up to the scrutiny of reality. As much we'd like Americans to move north of the border, there is a dearth of well paying jobs that'll attract them to move north. Furthermore, unemployment's going to be pushing higher with the tariff's impacts (GTA's unemployment rate is guaranteed to hit 10%+ percent before the end of 2025), so at this point are we just encouraging more Canadians to fight for bread crumbs with the Americans (who wouldn't bother anyways, given our low salaries, lack of interesting opportunities and anti-entrepreneurial business environment).

Also, Team Trudeau is the machine behind Carney. Given that Team Trudeau catastrophically screwed up the immigration file in the last couple years, it beggars belief that the same team will deliver and "carefully manage" this opportunity. More likely they'll screw it up again and Canadians are stuck with the mess that's created from the next immigration ponzi scheme.

[BlackDog204]