Canadian Federal Election

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I think I'll be watching the Bloc vote in Quebec more than anything else. Polling does seem to indicate a decent rebound for them, but they're still below a meaningful number which would translate to a lot of seats. However, Abacus seems to have picked up on a number of French-speaking Quebecers thinking that Blanchet had a very good French debate performance, so we could see that Bloc support keep ticking upwards.

There may get a point where a bunch of the projected Bloc losses turn back into holds. That could be the real tipping point about whether the Liberals get a strong majority, slim majority, or fall back into minority territory.

I haven't heard about Blanchet having had a good debate performance and that's going by the French language TV I've watched and friends in Quebec. He didn't have a disastrous performance but he didn't introduce anything interesting and used arguments that didn't apply well to the current situation. A lot of Quebecers will be voting Liberal this time which includes many who normally don't like the Liberals. I've predicted the Bloc will win 13 out of 78 seats. Canada 338 is predicting that they'll win 23. I won't be surprised if the number ends of being less than 13 and in the single digits.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

I've been in the same boat since Trudeau's resignation. Despite Carney being the best Liberal candidate in a long time, I'm not completely sold that the party has made an about-turn and is willing to flush out all of the worst parts of the last 10 years. I don't think Poilievre is Canadian Trump and we're not going to turn "Maple MAGA" if the Conservative win. However, despite me being cautiously optimistic of Poilievre's ability to put his finger on the pulse of what was truly important to young Canadian voters, he's been unable to turn that into a robust platform that convinces me that it was anything more than a solid vibe check at a time of significant Trudeau fatigue.

If the Trump issue wasn't front and centre, I would be leaning towards a Liberal minority as a trial run to prove that this is not a continuation of the previous government. That Carney is not the actually the architect of an ideology of which Trudeau was a figurehead. However, given the situation we are in, a weak minority government is not optimal for facilitating quick and drastic action that may be required to respond to Trump's bi-polar geopolitical tendencies.

This seems like a very good assessment. Polievres core philosophy isn’t going to change. His policies of low taxes low intervention with OAS and healthcare the sacred cows are going to advantage the old over younger voters regardless of what his voting coalition was.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

...
Mom, though, had a breakdown, fell deep into the YouTube/Infowars hole where it's no use having a good day because the world is ending and every waking moment needs to be spent praying to Trump for salvation. She ended up hospitalized for psychosis (you might know, I commented on it near-daily in the weather thread as part of my updates, sorry, coping mechanism, but deleted the next day lol), and since then she's basically back to her old self (white Oprah), but the conservative politics have unfortunately stayed. Now, at least, she has the ability to self-regulate and turn it off, change the subject, etc. so it doesn't... it's not a crisis.

Jeezus, that sounds rough!
Glad she's doing better

[FrAnKs]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I'm fortunate in that there's very little of the toxic side of things in my personal life. Most of my friends are ABC voters, the few that aren't are thoughtful, tolerant to a point I can't fault, etc. Good people. I'd let them raise my trans child, for example - zero fear they'd cause any additional harm to my child beyond what happens naturally in society, total confidence my child would always feel safe and welcome in their home.

My parents used to be mixed (Dad PC, Mom Liberal), but they're both reliable blue voters now - Dad innocently. He has his beliefs, believes the Cons share those beliefs, but it's not his entire personality. We never fight, lots of laughs and jokes when we debate stuff. Mom, though, had a breakdown, fell deep into the YouTube/Infowars hole where it's no use having a good day because the world is ending and every waking moment needs to be spent praying to Trump for salvation. She ended up hospitalized for psychosis (you might know, I commented on it near-daily in the weather thread as part of my updates, sorry, coping mechanism, but deleted the next day lol), and since then she's basically back to her old self (white Oprah), but the conservative politics have unfortunately stayed. Now, at least, she has the ability to self-regulate and turn it off, change the subject, etc. so it doesn't... it's not a crisis.

I had no idea.

Take care of your mom, s’il vous plaît 🙏

[O-tacular]

Is anyone surprised it was a Conservative?

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal...1e790f6-07ad-4b1a-93f0-33772c5b886c.html

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Is anyone surprised it was a Conservative?

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal...1e790f6-07ad-4b1a-93f0-33772c5b886c.html

I think our reaction to this depends on how threatened we would feel personally. Me, going to vote, some random woman working there pushing the Conservatives, I'm fine. A black man in Georgia going to vote, with Proud Boys in pickups posing with their guns outside the polling station, might feel more intimidated.

[ssiguy]

I don't see how the Tories are going to stop a Liberal majority at this point.

The moment where we could have seen a significant change in the polling numbers was at the debates. It needed a "you had a choice" moment ala Turner/Mulroney and it didn't happen. I think PP had the edge in the English debate but not enough to move the needle. The Liberals were most concerned about the French debate and Carney did much better than most expected. Now, after the debates, the vast majority of people have made up their minds with the only exceptions being people in very tight local races who may vote strategically or simply can't stand their local representative of their preferred Party.

We are headed to a Liberal majority government. Although I voted for Carney, it still makes me cringe that the Liberals will get a 4th consecutive term. After the carnage Trudeau has left in his wake, they most certainly don't deserve it.

As for the idea that Carney will still be surrounded by a bunch of Trudeau Cabinet Ministers and lapdogs, I wouldn't bank on it. Carney has already cut the Cabinet by nearly half and in order to separate himself from Trudeau's legacy, I think he will do a wholesale renewal except for those who have proven themselves competent in their portfolios. Miller and Guilbeault may think they've got another Cabinet post but I think they are in for a big surprise. I think Freeland is safe but even then, I think her days of Finance are over. Carney owes these people nothing and I don't think he wants to start his mandate with Cabinet Ministers who's names are already toxic.

[SignalHillHiker]

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Having a hard time deciding if this is willful ignorance, prejudice, or stupidity. Maybe all 3?

I am a student of History as in a lot about the Second World War so No Israel's actions are not genocide, Overwhelming carnage, yes, planned wiping out of a people clear off the Earth. No way. Israel gave the Palestinians a month to move South before they invaded. The core of the problem is the majority of the Gaza population do what they can to survive yet the top Dog in that society are the Iranian supported Hamas organization. They do not care what happens to the people around them. Its the needed sacrifice in their eyes and I would not be surprised if they laugh at silly Western megaphone holders screaming for the Gaza cause.

Here is another question for the Gaza concerned. What would Canada do if we were suddenly attacked after 18 years of relative Peace and 6,000 Canadians were murdered in brutal ways and another 1000 plus hauled away to live underground for years. Canada would use more than diplomacy to get those folks back.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Yeah I'm not sure about that one. It's so hard politically to introduce new revenue collection sources that that last thing we need is to voluntarily eliminate ones that are already in place. If they're worried about affordability then perhaps they should just lower it for PEI residents who are forced to cross for certain things and leave it in place for others.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Yeah I'm not sure about that one. It's so hard politically to introduce new revenue collection sources that that last thing we need is to voluntarily eliminate ones that are already in place. If they're worried about affordability then perhaps they should just lower it for PEI residents who are forced to cross for certain things and leave it in place for others.

I'll accept nothing less than ye paying us to come there.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

I am a student of History as in a lot about the Second World War so No Israel's actions are not genocide, Overwhelming carnage, yes, planned wiping out of a people clear off the Earth. No way. Israel gave the Palestinians a month to move South before they invaded. The core of the problem is the majority of the Gaza population do what they can to survive yet the top Dog in that society are the Iranian supported Hamas organization. They do not care what happens to the people around them. Its the needed sacrifice in their eyes and I would not be surprised if they laugh at silly Western megaphone holders screaming for the Gaza cause.

Here is another question for the Gaza concerned. What would Canada do if we were suddenly attacked after 18 years of relative Peace and 6,000 Canadians were murdered in brutal ways and another 1000 plus hauled away to live underground for years. Canada would use more than diplomacy to get those folks back.

As a ‘student of WW2 history’ then you should know how Israel was founded and the great displacement that occurred. You should also be familiar with the definition of genocide as per the UN panel created to prevent it after the Holocaust:

In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
-Killing members of the group;
-Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
-Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
-Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
-Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition

Israel arguably meets every bullet point except for forcibly transferring children. At this point I honestly believe that they hate Palestinians so much that they would rather carpet bomb their kids out of existence than spend any time or energy ‘re-educating’ them.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

I am a student of History as in a lot about the Second World War so No Israel's actions are not genocide, Overwhelming carnage, yes, planned wiping out of a people clear off the Earth. No way. Israel gave the Palestinians a month to move South before they invaded. The core of the problem is the majority of the Gaza population do what they can to survive yet the top Dog in that society are the Iranian supported Hamas organization. They do not care what happens to the people around them. Its the needed sacrifice in their eyes and I would not be surprised if they laugh at silly Western megaphone holders screaming for the Gaza cause.

Here is another question for the Gaza concerned. What would Canada do if we were suddenly attacked after 18 years of relative Peace and 6,000 Canadians were murdered in brutal ways and another 1000 plus hauled away to live underground for years. Canada would use more than diplomacy to get those folks back.

I think the issue is there is a desire to pick sides. Objecting to how the Israel forces are handling it does not mean supporting Hamas.

I am not impressed with either side. Both side are screwed up. The amount of civilians being killed is unacceptable.

Israel needs to step back and ask the international community to take over.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Here is another question for the Gaza concerned. What would Canada do if we were suddenly attacked after 18 years of relative Peace and 6,000 Canadians were murdered in brutal ways and another 1000 plus hauled away to live underground for years. Canada would use more than diplomacy to get those folks back.

The problem isn't the use of force. That's very dishonest framing. The problem is not caring about innocent lives.

Just imagine if there was a horrible terrorist attack say, at a local shopping mall, and 5 terrorists killed 20 innocent shoppers and staff members. Then the police track down the 1 of the terrorists and learn they're in an apartment in a large highrise but they're not sure which one. So they bomb the building killing the terrorist and 50 other people, Then they track down another terrorist and have a shoot out in a crowded bar killing the terrorist and 10 by-standers. And this keeps repeating with the death count getting higher and higher. By the time it's all over, many times more innocent lives would be lost than in the original terrorist attack.

Everyone would be outraged since they know there's no excuse for killing dozens of innocent people just to get to a few guilty ones. They'd know that it isn't worth risking any innocent lives just to catch a criminal. And they would not put up with any BS claims that not accepting this was somehow siding with terrorism.

We all know that would never happen and if it did, the police who made such a horrific decision would be arrested and put on trial for their crimes. The difference here is that in my scenario I didn't mention the race, religion, ethnicity, etc. of the people killed. And clearly, for anyone to kill many times more innocent people as a response to an attack, they must not value the lives being lost. Or at least place much less value on them compared to members of their own group. Which, if anything, makes the morality of it worse.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Yeah I'm not sure about that one. It's so hard politically to introduce new revenue collection sources that that last thing we need is to voluntarily eliminate ones that are already in place. If they're worried about affordability then perhaps they should just lower it for PEI residents who are forced to cross for certain things and leave it in place for others.

Over on the west coast, the BC Ferries system provides free passage to BC Seniors (65+) but they need to show a BC Drivers License or identify card. The discount does not apply on weekends or holidays. It also is just the per-person far, so they still have to be for vehicles.

You could see something like that being extended to provide a discount to residents on an island but still charge tourists.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I think our reaction to this depends on how threatened we would feel personally. Me, going to vote, some random woman working there pushing the Conservatives, I'm fine. A black man in Georgia going to vote, with Proud Boys in pickups posing with their guns outside the polling station, might feel more intimidated.

No, our reaction to this shouldn't depend on how threatened we feel. It doesn't matter if it's a nice old white lady pushing the NDP or a black guy pushing the Liberals or a teenage kid pushing the Conservatives. Elections workers must absolutely be neutral parties.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

I'd hate to imagine what kind of damage this Trudeau crew will continue to wreak on Canada in the next four years (another immigration ponzi scheme(s) that runs up the GTA's unemployment rate, no critical energy infrastructure built, another massive expansion of government guarantees of CMHC mortgage insurance to keep the housing bubble going, growing army of young people checking out of society etc.), but perhaps it's good for Canada in the long run in the sense that average Canadians can no longer shirk their civic duty and be forced to evaluate the team behind the "Saviour" in future elections.

Immigration numbers are headed down, as are temporary and student visas. They will only go up again if the bodies are needed.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Yeah I'm not sure about that one. It's so hard politically to introduce new revenue collection sources that that last thing we need is to voluntarily eliminate ones that are already in place. If they're worried about affordability then perhaps they should just lower it for PEI residents who are forced to cross for certain things and leave it in place for others.

As someone who crosses that Bridge as a Nova Scotian I agree with that Idea.
Islanders should not be fined for leaving the Island. My business pays the Toll. As it should.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by casper

I think the issue is there is a desire to pick sides. Objecting to how the Israel forces are handling it does not mean supporting Hamas.

I am not impressed with either side. Both side are screwed up. The amount of civilians being killed is unacceptable.

Israel needs to step back and ask the international community to take over.

Who in the International community would want the grief. Canada was asked to help out in Haiti. How did that work out?

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Here is another question for the Gaza concerned. What would Canada do if we were suddenly attacked after 18 years of relative Peace and 6,000 Canadians were murdered in brutal ways and another 1000 plus hauled away to live underground for years. Canada would use more than diplomacy to get those folks back.

Where are you getting those figures? Yes Oct 7th was a brutal day, a horrific attack, but Hamas killed about 1,200 people and took more than 450 hostages, though 250 were rescued on the first day, thankfully.

As soon as that terrible attack happened, I immediately thought, oh no, they've just given the Israeli Government a green light to flatten Gaza and kill 10's of thousands of innocent people.

I would hope that if some terrible attack like that happened here in Canada, we wouldn't use it to justify murdering as many people as we want in the name of peace. This was used as a justification to destroy the lives of each and every Palestinian living in the West Bank.


Dartguard, is question for the I don't give a damn about the people (humans) of Gaza.

What would you do if you grew up in what is a giant Israeli jail called Gaza. You had no rights, you had no freedoms. You keep watching the Israeli government put more settlements on your land. You've been denied a future, forced into a life of poverty. And the kicker is this land you are on keeps getting smaller, and the land that used to belong to your people is now held by a government that wants you just to disappear. Would you be fine with that? Would you not expect friends, family, neighbours to reach a boiling point?

This fucking mess the Benjamin Netanyahu government has created with his disgusting bombing and murder of anybody in his way needs to end. Any global support outside of Frumps WH since the terrorist attack has been lost. Now, all we see is the carnage being inflicted on a defenceless people.


Shame on Benjamin Netanyahu, a war criminal, and shame on his supporters. As a Canadian I would be standing up for the people we had forced into hating us for the years of discrimination and authoritarianism we had forced on them.

As of 8 April 2025, over 52,000 people – 50,810 Palestinians and 1,706 Israelis have been killed in this new war – I wonder if all these murders will make the Israelis safer in the future??????? It hasn't worked before, has it? They are the ones creating the (terrorists) freedom fights of the future. Also, it is a genocide by every metric one can think of. The murder of children alone they are trying to wipe out a whole generation of people. Since the Oct 7th attack of the Israelis who have lost their lives, children represent 3.2% of fatalities. Of the over 50,810 Palestinians bombed to oblivion, children make up 31% of the deaths. Do you still wonder why so many people have stopped supporting Israel and are now protesting the freedom of the Gaza people?

I don't know how anybody can argue in favour of the carnage being done at the hands of the Netanyahu government. Not unless you view one group of people as more deserving of human rights over another.