Canadian Federal Election

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by travis3000

I voted yesterday. I waited 20 minutes in a lineup which was the most I ever have. The lady said over 1000 people voted as of 4pm yesterday at that one polling location alone!

I'm not sure I share your rosy LPC predictions. There is a high desire for change in the electorate after 9.5 years of Liberal rule. Trump scared many Canadians but that fear has worn off as Trump has gone quiet the last 3 weeks. I'm not sure a LPC majority is a guarantee.

Mainstreet has a CPC+2 today, and Frank Graves from Ekos was tweeting last night (now deleted) that the race is tightening again in his data.

+2 at what? I guess we will see it added in the polls section on 338 soon enough, but I believe it has been taken into account for .

It will be a good thing for the Liberals if there is a bump in turnout, and people voters don't get too complacent about leads in the polls. The good thing is, most Canadians don't follow the polls like many of us in this thread do... many voters have some general idea, of course, but I think don't think most Canadians keep a daily check on the 338 projection probabilities, which will probably help voter turnout.

Party's always say "this is the most important election of our lifetimes", but I think many Canadians voter do actually view this as one of the most consequential elections in their lifetimes. I usually like to vote on election night, and think I want to keep with the tradition this year, but maybe I'll cut it a little less close this year, as I expect the lines will be even longer than the ones for us last minute Susies were in the provincial election a few months ago, which were also the longest lines for voting I've ever seen in my life for an election.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I think after 20 years as a career politician and 2+ years of campaigning - if he does not keep Liberals to a minority which means he blew a 25% lead and spent millions - he and Jenni both need to be FIRED.

And I think that is what will have to happen because I don't see any way Pierre resigns willingly. Unless they get totally destroyed, and I mean from where they were going in, not where they looked like they were going to go, then the party will have to pry that leadership out of his hands. Assuming the party even wants to. And he might be able to make the case for staying. This election is an outlier, Canadians over reacted at the polls to Trump, blah blah, he'll say whatever.

I fully expect that the next election will go to the Conservatives. It will be 14 years of Liberal rule by that time, assuming a majority, and this term would be the longest, I want to say since Mulroney's second term, at almost 4 1/2 years, and will almost be a full year after the next US Presidential election. I think Pierre does whatever he can to hold on to this job, and try to keep the party united for one more term, and take their place as government in waiting.

[FrAnKs]

I voted at the advanced poll today and it took me 2 minutes, literally.

Very efficient staff.

[logicbomb]

I voted yesterday but threw my vote away. PP and Carney are working for the same crowd. Zero discussion around immigration or affordability. Zero conversation on refugee and asylum reform. We cannot outbuild the housing crisis when you are inevitably going to blast the taps back on.

Trump is impacting us but the unreal number of newcomers post-COVID has significantly impacted our region. Wage supression. Youth are being shutout of jobs. Unions are actually advocating for PR status for TFW's. LMIA fraud. Our infrastructure cannot handle this rapid population boom.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Unfortunately I have become increasingly shocked, saddened, and frustrated by the way others speak about conservative voters. My social media is flooded with nasty stuff; hell, it's even in some of the group chats I participate in. No I am not stupid, no I am not fascist. I'm not one of the loud mouth conservatives spewing crap who deserves to be called out, I am simply doing what I think is best for me and my family. If you think that makes me a bad person, or if that makes me stupid, then so be it.

I've joined a Canadian Conservatives group on FB just for fun... and holy crap is there some crazy, kooky ideas there. I have a lot of conservative friends who have tried to talk with me about voting CPC this time, and very few bring any sort of substantive or logical argument to the table... it's always big on conspiracy theories, random videos from a right wing podcast explaining how deep Carney is in the globalist agenda, bullshit about the WEF, etc, etc.

I've found Liberal Party supporters, Liberal candidates, and Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney to be mostly talking about their own policies and plans, rather than attacking the Conservatives. Obviously there is some criticism and mud slinging too... it's an election, but compared to the attacks lobbed against the Liberals in general, or more specifically, the attacks lobbed at Carney himself... I find the general content of these attacks to be heavily based on misinformation, vague statistics, and even straight up conspiracy theories.




This was maybe funniest examples of the type of stuff I've seen shared by conservative friends on Facebook, like talk about an incredibly weak source. But I've also seen a lot of straight up nutty and conspiracy theory stuff shared on Facebook... and it's almost exclusively coming from right wing sources, and not from the centre and left.

I have conservative friends and we've talked the election via DMs... we usually end up having a lot in common, and it's interesting to hear how many of them would support stuff like re-creating a national oil company, taxing the ultra rich, and the government spending more on building affordable rental housing. But they don't want to believe me when I tell them that the Conservatives are why we don't have a national oil company anymore, or that the Conservatives have no interest in taxing the ultra wealthy or investing the hundreds of billions in affordable housing that is needed.


The real strange thing to me, as a younger person, is that it's my generation, and the younger generation, especially the young men, who are the most fervent and in your face about their support for the CPC and how if anyone even considering voting Liberal must be insane, stupid, ignorant, etc, etc... Like, I just don't understand what makes them so convinced Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are the solution to Canada's problems, when I think its pretty obvious the PP CPC's won't want to spend a fraction of what it will actually take to solve Canada's most pressing issues.


I can almost give Gen Z males a pass... as they were too young to remember Stephen Harper and his attack dog, Pierre Poilievre, but millenials? hell no! I think it's just sad how gung ho many millenial men are for Pierre Poilievre, and how duped they seem to be about Carney being a litany of preposterous things based on some random videos they've seen on social media from some extremely questionable sources... like do they not remember Stephen Harper's government at all??? Pretty much all of the immigration issues that young people are mad about putting inflationary pressure on the housing market can be traced by to Harper's administration, who also did far less to stimulate the construction of affordable homes than the Liberals have for the past decade.

I think Mark Carney's Liberals have an objectively more ambitious housing plan than Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives do, but I don't think many young male conservative voters are willing to to have an objective conversation about the difference between the two main party's plans to build our way out of the housing crisis. Pierre clearly thinks the free market is the solution to the housing crisis, and his plan is mostly just about cutting red tape in regulation, which Carney's plan is also focussed on. The main difference seems to be that Carney's Liberals are actually willing to invest a lot more money directly subsidizing the construction of affordable homes. For how important "the housing crisis" is to so many young male voters, I'm confused as to why so many them are supporting Pierre Poilievre, when he his housing plan is not nearly ambitious enough to solve Canada's "housing crisis".

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I'll wait until election day to cast my vote, but I will be voting Conservative. Not that I am a Conservative, I am a swing voter who has voted for all of the three major parties, and generally consider myself someone who is right around that centre line.

At the risk of sounding too woke (), that's a luxury of being straight. I get it - I'm cisgender and white so I'll be among the last to be impacted by a lot of right-wing policies - but being gay keeps the social stuff top of mind for me, and makes some politicians/parties a non-starter absent some bigger crisis.

For example, when it looked like Canada might end our offshore oil industry, I would've voted Conservative. If the Conservatives were promising increased immigration, I might consider them this election. Population and economic growth are existential for Newfoundland, and bigger than me, so I'll risk it.

But for the likes of Pierre Poilievre and his slogans? Not worth rolling that dice to me. I'll vote in my own queer self interest.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by savevp

It looks to me like the resurgence in right wing populism across the western world is very much the 'pendulum swinging back' after the last decade's engorgement of the left wing. Relatively inoffensive (to the right wing) economic issues used to be at the core of the left wing movements, and centred largely on the core principles of redistribution of wealth, and government provision of services. There was (and outside the US, still is) a broad consensus on the more inflammatory social issues like gay marriage, abortion, climate change, and vaccines.

In the last decade, the emergence and rapid spread of the 'woke' left - you know it when you see it - has upset the ataraxy of right wingers(who could comfortably inhabit our decisively capitalist, free market society).

What else was going to happen when the prevailing leftist ideology - flowing outward from the States - was predicated on the idea that majority groups are responsible for the world's ills, and should feel guilty for doing so? And with various remedies first proposed, then enacted, that explicitly or implicitly seek revenge against the majority group in question, be it demonising historical figures or demanding reparations. Of course young people, mostly white males - the most vilified group, have turned to right wing populism as a result. What else could possibly have happened?

That said, the relative lack of hard-core wokeism in our country has been met with a notably weak far-right movement too. Although there is something of a tendency, especially among a handful of forumers, to label anyone with conservative views as a Nazi, MAGA, etc., much of the rightward shift among Canadian youth is maybe just a simple reaction to the destruction of their prospects during the last decade of Liberal government. And the most odious and destructive policies of the American right wing are decidedly not in play here. If young men could afford to buy a home in Canada, I don't think we'd be seeing this upwelling of Conservative support; it isn't founded on vaccine scepticism, anti-gay sentiment, Christian ideals, anti-immigrant rhetoric, or general opposition to science, as much as some like to suggest it is.

I have no reply, but your past few posts have been excellent! I'm just taking them in.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I've joined a Canadian Conservatives group on FB just for fun... and holy crap is there some crazy, kooky ideas there. I have a lot of conservative friends who have tried to talk with me about voting CPC this time, and very few bring any sort of substantive or logical argument to the table... it's always big on conspiracy theories, random videos from a right wing podcast explaining how deep Carney is in the globalist agenda, bullshit about the WEF, etc, etc.

I've found Liberal Party supporters, Liberal candidates, and Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney to be mostly talking about their own policies and plans, rather than attacking the Conservatives. Obviously there is some criticism and mud slinging too... it's an election, but compared to the attacks lobbed against the Liberals in general, or more specifically, the attacks lobbed at Carney himself... I find the general content of these attacks to be heavily based on misinformation, vague statistics, and even straight up conspiracy theories.

This was maybe funniest examples of the type of stuff I've seen shared by conservative friends on Facebook, like talk about an incredibly weak source. But I've also seen a lot of straight up nutty and conspiracy theory stuff shared on Facebook... and it's almost exclusively coming from right wing sources, and not from the centre and left.

I have conservative friends and we've talked the election via DMs... we usually end up having a lot in common, and it's interesting to hear how many of them would support stuff like re-creating a national oil company, taxing the ultra rich, and the government spending more on building affordable rental housing. But they don't want to believe me when I tell them that the Conservatives are why we don't have a national oil company anymore, or that the Conservatives have no interest in taxing the ultra wealthy or investing the hundreds of billions in affordable housing that is needed.


The real strange thing to me, as a younger person, is that it's my generation, and the younger generation, especially the young men, who are the most fervent and in your face about their support for the CPC and how if anyone even considering voting Liberal must be insane, stupid, ignorant, etc, etc... Like, I just don't understand what makes them so convinced Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are the solution to Canada's problems, when I think its pretty obvious the PP CPC's won't want to spend a fraction of what it will actually take to solve Canada's most pressing issues.


I can almost give Gen Z males a pass... as they were too young to remember Stephen Harper and his attack dog, Pierre Poilievre, but millenials? hell no! I think it's just sad how gung ho many millenial men are for Pierre Poilievre, and how duped they seem to be about Carney being a litany of preposterous things based on some random videos they've seen on social media from some extremely questionable sources... like do they not remember Stephen Harper's government at all??? Pretty much all of the immigration issues that young people are mad about putting inflationary pressure on the housing market can be traced by to Harper's administration, who also did far less to stimulate the construction of affordable homes than the Liberals have for the past decade.

I think Mark Carney's Liberals have an objectively more ambitious housing plan than Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives do, but I don't think many young male conservative voters are willing to to have an objective conversation about the difference between the two main party's plans to build our way out of the housing crisis. Pierre clearly thinks the free market is the solution to the housing crisis, and his plan is mostly just about cutting red tape in regulation, which Carney's plan is also focussed on. The main difference seems to be that Carney's Liberals are actually willing to invest a lot more money directly subsidizing the construction of affordable homes. For how important "the housing crisis" is to so many young male voters, I'm confused as to why so many them are supporting Pierre Poilievre, when he his housing plan is not nearly ambitious enough to solve Canada's "housing crisis".

This is a microcosm of what I was talking about. I try and be candid about my feelings for a moment and how I've been generally upset over some of the rhetoric indirectly slung my way, and the response I get is "yeah but the other side is wayyy worse, and also here's like 6 paragraphs about why your voting wrong".

I'm tired boss.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I have metal straws at home. My kid is fine with them. They aren't sharp.

There is a risk involved.

Metal straw punctures 4-year-old’s throat, artery to brain: How his life was saved

https://www.today.com/health/health/metal-straw-punctures-throat-artery-brain-rcna45635

While metal straws are durable and sturdy, their rigidness and size has been known to cause injury, and even death. 2.8 million metal straws were recalled by Starbucks in 2016 due to injury risk. A four-year-old child sustained serious injuries after running and drinking with a metal straw. A British woman suffered a traumatic brain injury after falling upon her metal straw, piercing her eye and ultimately killing her. It is advised that if using a metal straw, one shouldn’t use a lid, be in a car, walking, or in motion—and children shouldn’t use them at all.

https://sprudge.com/are-metal-straws-safe-why-some-experts-say-no-177809.html

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by savevp

^
I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but political movements are almost always more about 'vibes' than policy. The Trudeau era definitely embodied the woke vibe. But things like renaming Dundas Square, removing references to Sir J. A. MacD, etc are very real. Even if inconsequential and merely symbolic, these tendencies are impactful, commonplace, and clearly divisive.

Again, we don't have a fraction of the far right v far left dynamic in the states. There's a reason the PPC won't win any seats this election. But there's also a reason so many young mainstream voters have left the Liberal tent despite Poilievre's occasional Trump turns.

My only point is that we have to be careful about attributing advancement of a political movement to the morality of that movement. Different movements are in conflict with each other. A sort of war over over the minds and acceptance of the public. But like any other war, you can gain ground by being an effective fighter or strategist without having the most correct cause. Like in an actual war such as Russia vs Ukraine. If Russia makes advances you wouldn't claim it was due to some fundamental failing or Ukraine. It can be that the opposition simply has more resources, better funding, or more ruthless tactics. So yes, there's always a reason why one side has more success than the other but that's completely different than imputing a justification onto a mere cause/effect relationship.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Yes, I agree that the western world shift to the alt-right is absolutely a reaction against the worst excesses of the woke left (drag story hours in public libraries anyone???).

This is your example of the “worst excesses of the woke left”? An event that has zero impact on you, is completely innocuous and not harmful whatsoever to children or anyone else, an event that promotes reading, an event that no one is forced to attend, that is only there for parents and children who want to participate in?

This is where the anti-woke argument falls into irrational hysteria. Pick something the actually matters, that is actually harmful rather than purely based on fear and ignorance.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by elly63

It's this whole forum, it's not hard to miss (few true Liberals, mostly far left). Conservative voices are bullied or threatened with deletion or banning for doing the same thing leftists do. I'm not complaining, it is what it is, but don't be surprised that the right wing does dirty tactics. They learned from the best at manipulating people and media, the left.

The party of “personal responsibility” strikes again!

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I'll wait until election day to cast my vote, but I will be voting Conservative. Not that I am a Conservative, I am a swing voter who has voted for all of the three major parties, and generally consider myself someone who is right around that centre line.

My reason is simple. When I look back on the last decade I ask myself whether or not life is any easier or better than it was in 2015. Unfortunately, my answer to those questions is no. Some (but not all) of these problems are related to policies of the Liberal government. I fully acknowledge that someone may ask themselves those same questions and the answer may be yes, which is awesome. Unfortunately, some folks will always struggle more than others.

Many people turn around and say "The conservatives are going to make these problems even worse", and fuck maybe they will, who knows. The only thing I know is when something isn't working for you, it'd be crazy to try and do the same thing again. Maybe the alternative doesn't work either, but I'm going to vote for trying the alternative. The nice thing about a free democracy is that if the next government sucks even more, we can vote them out.

Unfortunately I have become increasingly shocked, saddened, and frustrated by the way others speak about conservative voters. My social media is flooded with nasty stuff; hell, it's even in some of the group chats I participate in. No I am not stupid, no I am not fascist. I'm not one of the loud mouth conservatives spewing crap who deserves to be called out, I am simply doing what I think is best for me and my family. If you think that makes me a bad person, or if that makes me stupid, then so be it.

When you walk into a polling station and mark an X on a ballot, or write a name on an advanced ticket, there is a reason behind your vote. I respect anyone's decision as I don't walk in your shoes or know what your struggles are.

If I adopted your principles, I’d have to vote LPC. The last few years have been awesome for anyone in the real estate industry, no bad tenants anymore, everyone scared to death of homelessness, tent cities everywhere, both rents and real estate values steadily rising with no end in sight (unless the LPC’s Scheme of Great Enrichment stops, but I trust Carney to decide we need lots of FNSs to grow the economy).

So, yeah, basic flow chart =
Skyhigh homelessness + skyhigh food bank use —> the last few years have been great financially —> Reelect the Libs for more of the same

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

A good post. Yes, I agree that the western world shift to the alt-right is absolutely a reaction against the worst excesses of the woke left (drag story hours in public libraries anyone???). No one however is questioning gay marriage or gay adoption anymore. The general movement is still progressive.

While I leave open the possibility that there are valid examples, this isn't one of them. Someone reading children stories in a safe shared space like a public library shouldn't be even political to begin with let alone presented as a political excess to a particular group or side.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I'm tired boss.

Amen.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

The party of “personal responsibility” strikes again!

That's it?

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

While I leave open the possibility that there are valid examples, this isn't one of them. Someone reading children stories in a safe shared space like a public library shouldn't be even political to begin with let alone presented as a political excess to a particular group or side.

It comes back to the same old repulsive lie that queer people want to harm your children and it’s infuriating that anyone would still be arguing something like that. Imagine being a queer kid growing up and receiving the message that you are a pedophile. Do people know how evil and destructive that is?

[elly63]

Originally Posted by lio45

Skyhigh homelessness + skyhigh food bank use —> the last few years have been great financially —> Reelect the Libs for more of the same

You forgot import three times more people to strain the social programs to breaking point.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I have no reply, but your past few posts have been excellent! I'm just taking them in.

Thank you

I was actually just thinking your last post about the 'luxury' of ignoring social issues was eye-opening.

I was also just thinking about my own stumbling blocks toward voting Conservative - which I did want to do after the last decade of Liberal mismanagement IMHO - and what frustrates me more than Poilievre's sloganeering is how little we see anyone else in the party.

Other than Michelle Rempel, there is a fear-inducing void when I think about who else would be in cabinet. I'm worried it could get somewhat unhinged with the rural fringe becoming powerful in a Conservative government. The bizarre directive of hiding from/antagonising the media seems to also be issued at the candidate level.

The gap has narrowed in my mind somewhat, but if I had to vote today, I'd very likely vote Liberal with some distaste.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

It comes back to the same old repulsive lie that queer people want to harm your children and it’s infuriating that anyone would still be arguing something like that. Imagine being a queer kid growing up and receiving the message that you are a pedophile. Do people know how evil and destructive that is?

Imagine being a white boy minding your own business and receiving the message that you're a Nazi. Do people know how evil and destructive that is?