Canadian Federal Election

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

CBC Article on the Green party being removed


Yoinking them out now that they officially don't have enough candidates does make sense. Though the commission should probably have made it official a week or so ago, when the candidate lists were finalized.

I think the Globe's post on the Green's intentionally removing candidates from ridings to stop the split of progressive voters was the nail in the coffin for them. If thats your intent in the party, to run a campaign but tell people not to vote for you, you shouldn't even be offered debate publicity.

It's quite possible that the Greens would go on stage and use some of their time to tell progressives to vote for liberals instead of them. This gives an unfair advantage to the liberals.

If you're going to run a federal party, you should go with the intent to win as many seats as you can, not using your platform to amplify the vote of another party.

[whatnext]

Hopefully this pushes the Greens to fold or amalgamate with the NDP. Bernier's vanity party needs to go as well.

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Hopefully this pushes the Greens to fold or amalgamate with the NDP. Bernier's vanity party needs to go as well.

The greens have been a joke on a federal level. The past two election campaigns have proven that.

On a provincial level, there are opportunities.

As for the PPC, atleast their messaging is consistent of "don't vote for the CPC, they are basically liberals". But yah, they also need to fold. They had a good following in the 2021 vote because the CPC went more to the center and because the PPC was the only party against covid measures such as vaccine mandates and lockdowns. Now that all that has past, they are basically just a mouse in a horse race.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Docere

Liberals polling at 65% in Atlantic Canada - looks like there will be a red sweep there like in 2015:

https://narrativeresearch.ca/the-liberal-party-holds-a-commanding-lead-across-atlantic-canada/

very interesting. I quoted this post in the Altantic Canada politics thread.

I'm not sure a red wave will result from this, but I think we will see the 338 map get even more rouge as we get closer to election day.


Voter efficiency and strategic voting will be needed for the Liberals to have any hope of limiting the CPC to 1 or 2 seats in Atlantic Canada, but with an increasingly polarized race, it's seeming like a distinct possibility.

Ultimately, I think people will see the writing on the wall, and understand that it's better to have an MP that's a sitting member of a majority government, than a member of the opposition. In our provincial election last fall in New Brunswick, some pretty deeply blue suburban, borderline rural ridings went red... even Premier Higgs's riding of Quispamsis, Saint John's biggest suburb went Red, and he lost his seat. These traditionally conservative ridings showed some very real pragmatism in the provincial election, because they could have seen their suburbs masquerading as towns left out of the Liberal government's priorities... or even worse, their greatest fear might have been realized: regional amalgamation with Saint John.

Carney's Liberals hasn't quite reached the 74.63% that Susan Holt's Liberals reached in the New Brunswick Election poll on the Atlantic Canada sub... but he's still pretty close here in on the SSP poll.

I think Tobique—Mactaquac and Fundy Royale will remain quite hard for the Liberals to win, my own riding of Saint John-St. Croix is more likely to swing Liberal, but it will still take a a significant amount of strategic voting, and getting people out to vote that might have taken the last few elections off due to the deep blue perception of the riding in both 2019 and 2021.

Karen Ludwig did beat John Williamson in 2015, and the Trump, tariffs, and trade issues continue to be near the top of voter priorities in this riding, as most of the riding is especially dependent on exports. The Port of Saint John, which is the 4th largest port by tonnage in Canada, and one of the fastest growing container ports in Canada, has been divided into two ridings for the first time in this election, and the port of Saint John will be an essential piece to exporting agricultural and aquacultural products from the rural parts of this new riding.

What could really help Ms. Ludwig secure the seat, would be a visit from Premier Holt, or another visit from Prime Minister Carney (preferably at the same event as Premier Holt, along with a big promise for continued investment in the Port of Saint John's West Side Docks) Carney has already made a photo op appearance at the West Side Docks, but he's yet to make any sort of big promise for future investment in the port, which will help the Liberal's chances in both Saint John ridings.

For the sake of my city and riding, I hope voters, both urban and rural, see the writing on the wall and vote strategically and pragmatically so we elect a member of what is likely going to be a majority government.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

The greens have been a joke on a federal level. The past two election campaigns have proven that.

On a provincial level, there are opportunities.

As for the PPC, atleast their messaging is consistent of "don't vote for the CPC, they are basically liberals". But yah, they also need to fold. They had a good following in the 2021 vote because the CPC went more to the center and because the PPC was the only party against covid measures such as vaccine mandates and lockdowns. Now that all that has past, they are basically just a mouse in a horse race.

When I was younger I used to vote for the local Green candidate a lot when I lived in ridings where a party I didn't like (typically Liberal) was pretty much guaranteed to win.

I regret this.

Nowadays I think of the Canadian Green party as representing a view that's probably closest to that of RFK Jr. in the US. They don't vet their candidates, and the party is full of people who peddle pseudo-science and conspiracy theories. Then there was their embarrassing public meltdown last election where their leader's chief of staff called her opponents anti-semites and threatened to replace Green party candidates with Zionists. They're inevitably stuck with Elizabeth May even if she gives drunken speeches and has to be pulled away from the mic.

When it comes to parties I'd vote for today, I'd put them down there with the PPC.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

They're inevitably stuck with Elizabeth May even if she gives drunken speeches and has to be pulled away from the mic..

Thank Conservative Lisa Raitt for saving May from herself. Kind of a shame she retired from politics.

Why Lisa Raitt’s rescue of Elizabeth May represents the right kind of friendship

We could use a lot more of that today

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by elly63

I don't know if you are admonishing me or the election campaign but this is being openly discussed in the media and Poilievre is being open about it. There are far worse slurs going on here that fall on deaf ears than a subject the main party concerned is open about. My only intention was to point out the man is under some additional stress and has nothing to do with the politics of the campaign.

of course I am not admonishing you.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

of course I am not admonishing you.

Good to know

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by elly63

At the risk of my better judgment I'm going to post this knowing full well the usual suspects will respond with their hateful comments.

The reason I'm posting it is because my family is going through something similar and it is very stressful for those who are involved.

As they are with their parents on the election tour, Pierre has been asked questions about his children. His daughter who is six, he describes as non verbal. I'm not a doctor and shouldn't speculate but I assume she is on the autism spectrum.

How would you feel if your child is of school age and doesn't talk and it's not a physical issue. I can't tell you the stress this causes from having so called professionals having no answers to even worse those having the wrong answers. The member of my family has had to spend money on quack evaluations (I know how to read and have read them) to special schools and the like.

They are not as well off as Pierre Poilievre but all the money in the world isn't going to unlock what is in that child's head and the parent's fear for her future, either rich or poor. BTW the child in my family does speak but has issues, I can't imagine not speaking

I can imagine the frustration and fear for her Pierre is going through as I've seen it up close. Any money or time he has (if he quits) ain't gonna fix this problem. I wish the family well in the years ahead.

And what is your conclusion or point? If Pierre has a child on the spectrum then goddamn him for offering nothing to families who struggle with raising neurodivergent children except a boutique tax credit. It’s not possible to pull yourself up by any imaginary bootstraps when your day to day life produces the same level of stress in parents as people in war zones (for real https://www.disabilityscoop.com/2009/11/...ms%20of%20those%20without%20disabilities.). I genuinely fear a CPC government will slash benefits for disabled people and their families.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by Docere

Sanders has endorsed Jagmeet Singh's NDP twice. In his early years in politics he spoke for the need of something like a labor-based party in the US.

Ed Broadbent may perhaps have been the last NDP leader to identify as a democratic socialist (he says in his memoir that democratic socialist and social democrat are interchangeable), but he used that language less than Tommy Douglas and David Lewis did.

I didn't know Sanders endorsed Singh, or I don't remember.

Yes, Broadbent makes sense, but as you say, he was less outspoken about it than some others. Additionally, Audrey McLaughlin, who succeeded Broadbent, was president of the Socialist International Women. I always liked her and McDonough, though McDonough was a bit too meek for the hurly-burly of politics.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by elly63

I don't know if you are admonishing me or the election campaign but this is being openly discussed in the media and Poilievre is being open about it. There are far worse slurs going on here that fall on deaf ears than a subject the main party concerned is open about. My only intention was to point out the man is under some additional stress and has nothing to do with the politics of the campaign.

I don't understand the confusion. Molson was quite clearly standing up for the notion that minor children of politicians shall be left alone. I can't believe anyone would think otherwise, especially, my goodness, if that child is disabled in some fashion. Anyone who attacks or ridicules Poilievere's presumably autistic daughter is a lowlife.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

True but the Bloc isn't relevant in English Canada. They poll below 4% in English speaking Canada and have no MPs in English speaking Canada. Other than West Island in Montreal and maybe Gatineau they don't have any candidates in places where English is spoken widely.

To reverse it for the French debate would a party polling 20% (So less than 4% nationally) with a candidate in every Quebec riding get to participate in the debate? They might be on track to win 10 seats in that scenario.

"English-speaking Canada", just like "French-speaking Canada" is Canada. Stick to the actual criteria.

[whatnext]

Remind me again why Trudeau & the Liberals killed Northern Gateway. how farsighted..

China Pivots From US to Canada for More Oil as Trade War Worsens
By Robert Tuttle and Yongchang Chin
April 16, 2025 at 10:46 AM PDT

Chinese refiners are importing record amounts of Canadian crude after slashing purchases of US oil by roughly 90% amid escalating trade tensions.

A pipeline expansion in Western Canada that opened less than a year ago has presented China and other East Asian oil importers with expanded access to the vast crude reserves in Alberta’s oilsands region.

Chinese crude imports from the port at the pipeline terminus near Vancouver soared to an unprecedented 7.3 million barrels in March and are on pace to exceed that figure this month, according to data from Vortexa Ltd., which tracks waterborne oil and natural-gas shipments. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of US oil have collapsed to 3 million barrels a month from a peak of 29 million in June....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...rsens?srnd=homepage-canada&sref=x4rjnz06

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

"English-speaking Canada", just like "French-speaking Canada" is Canada. Stick to the actual criteria.

Yes it's all Canada but there are separate debates in each language. So I think it's a valid question to ask whether the criteria should be amended to reflect that. Would be interesting to hear pro/con arguments for either position.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Remind me again why Trudeau & the Liberals killed Northern Gateway. how farsighted..

China Pivots From US to Canada for More Oil as Trade War Worsens
By Robert Tuttle and Yongchang Chin
April 16, 2025 at 10:46 AM PDT

Chinese refiners are importing record amounts of Canadian crude after slashing purchases of US oil by roughly 90% amid escalating trade tensions.

A pipeline expansion in Western Canada that opened less than a year ago has presented China and other East Asian oil importers with expanded access to the vast crude reserves in Alberta’s oilsands region.

Chinese crude imports from the port at the pipeline terminus near Vancouver soared to an unprecedented 7.3 million barrels in March and are on pace to exceed that figure this month, according to data from Vortexa Ltd., which tracks waterborne oil and natural-gas shipments. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of US oil have collapsed to 3 million barrels a month from a peak of 29 million in June....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...rsens?srnd=homepage-canada&sref=x4rjnz06

Good thing the TMX pipeline that the Federal government bought at great expense and opposition is online now. Your city was ground zero for protests so it’s surprising you omitted that.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by lio45

BTW, ssiguy, the current criteria result in the debates being restricted to the parties that could realistically form government and/or actually hold the balance of power. It's logical that it would include regional parties.

The BQ matters way more to you in the Lower Mainland, than the PPC or Greens ever will, because they could be either the Official Opposition in Ottawa (they have been it in the past) or be the ones holding the balance of power (same).

In a razor thin minority, a seat vote can pull down a government.

I also don't think it's fair that a Party has to be able to get 90% of all ridings represented. In a short election, like this one, that is a piece of cake for the 3 main parties but very difficult for a smaller one without their organization and especially a poorer one like the Greens.

As I said, I strongly support the Bloc in the debates but, as far as I'm concerned, if a Party has managed to get a single elected MP into the House then they should be in the debates.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Docere

Liberals polling at 65% in Atlantic Canada - looks like there will be a red sweep there like in 2015:

https://narrativeresearch.ca/the-liberal-party-holds-a-commanding-lead-across-atlantic-canada/

I do caution reading too much into the results of a singular poll, especially from a polling agency that has never really participated in election polling before (they do quarterly polls of the ATL provinces but it rarely coincides with the end of an election campaign, so their track record is basically unknown as it's untested).

My weighted average right now, where weights are given to the last 30 polls released (weights are determined by sample size and date of last day of survey) is:

LPC: 54.8%
CPC: 34.2%
NDP: 6.2%

Which seems to be pretty close to 338's regional average of
LPC: 55%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 7%

Depending on how that vote is distributed it could be anywhere between a Liberal sweep or the Conservatives picking up a couple of extra seats. I think the only thing we can certainly say with those numbers is that the NDP are likely non-competitive in Halifax and St. John's.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by kiwi4353

Trump is still going on about the 51st state stuff. God he needs to shut up.

If Trump changes his tone to offering Canada an invitation to join America, saying he thinks it would benefit us both, I have no issue with that. We are obviously going to decline and that’s that. If he continues with threats and adversarial actions, then that’s another story. I hope he sticks with the former.

[elly63]

Doesn't seem to be any clear winner or loser so far in the debate. It surprised me that they seemed to gang up on Carney for a bit but it didn't last.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Remind me again why Trudeau & the Liberals killed Northern Gateway. how farsighted..

You're just a full on oil and gas shill now?