Canadian Federal Election

[Loco101]

Here's a Toronto Sun opinion article by Warren Kinsella from February 11, 2023:

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnist...e-may-be-winning-but-he-could-still-lose

The comments after by readers really bash and ridicule Kinsella. This is when the PP CPC was ahead by about 8-10 points and well before the CPC's peak.

KINSELLA: Pierre Poilievre may be winning but he could still lose

Here's the best paragraph from that article:

Him: Poilievre, like many other conservative politicians who have tried and failed — Tim Hudak in Ontario, Robert Stanfield and Joe Clark federally — is engaging and smart in private, and decidedly uncharismatic in public. He doesn’t have the charm that Mulroney or Trudeau did and do. He often seems angry, and angry at the country (eg. “Canada is broken,” when the only thing that is “broken” is its politics).

Can he change? Can he keep a civil tongue? Can he erase unhelpful past decisions? Can he have a great debate, and convince everyone that his puny C.V. is acceptable?

We shall see. He may be winning, but there’s always this:

He could lose.



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And I'll just copy and paste some reader comments:

Doesn’t it seem every time O’l Warren pens a negative article

PP he gains in the polls.Keep up the good work Warren!

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Give it up Warren! Pierre Poilivre is a smart, intelligent man. A man who speaks for the people. Your corrupt to the core, village idiot, WEF and China’s useful idiot, has destroyed and divided this country. And by the way, Warren, why don’t you join the Red Star, where you belong too?

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Poilivre’s support for the Convoy “lunatics” and their millions of supporters amounted to talking with them.

Isn’t that what political leaders are supposed to do?

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Many of the other commentators have said it much better than I can. I agree with you folks.

Warren, you're grasping at straws!

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Convoy Lunatics > Truck Drivers

>Farmers

>Hard working People

>Normal People

> Salt of the Earth People

> People who know our Country is a mess

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The direct, coupled with the underlying message in this piece of garbage journalism is beyond ridiculous, it's outright insulting.

This is not objective analysis by any measure. Rather, it's a vindictive, spiteful, arrogantly stated piece of overt partisanship posing as objectivity.

Please Toronto Sun, if you are going to insult the intelligence of readers so unconcernedly, I'd rather you get a writer from The Star or CBC, their better at it than Warren.


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The ONLY way that P.P. can lose is if the buffoons and morons in the GTA, GMA, Ottawa region and East Coast continue to support the corrupt, arrogant and incompetent Liberals [LIEberals].

"We vote Liberal because we vote Liberal" scares me. Dolts who ignore the issues, the corruption and the incompetence, when they vote, are a danger to this nation.

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Ridiculous story that shows the panic in the liberal party and the fear in the media. Pierre is the best choice Canada has ever been offered, and he’s going against the number one worst disgrace we’ve ever elected.. The ndp have bootlicked their way right out of parliament, and deserve the Green Party level for what they have done to this country. Pierre by a landslide and good riddance to the rest.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I think this is a reasonable argument but 2021 saw a very popular Liberal government because of the rally around the flag during the depths of Covid post a pretty good Vaccine roll out that 80% of us were happy with. There was a bit of anger at Trudeau calling the election so quickly but O'Toole was forced to protect his flank from the anti-vaxxers and equivocate on vaccines. The Liberals cleverly pushed the wedge as deep as they could and ended up getting a bit lucky with vote splits to win. O'Toole was also pretty vanilla chosen as a compromise. A Ford or Caroline Mulroney would be dominating for sure.

O'Toole was very likeable as a person to the general public unlike PP. His own party made a huge mistake when they gave him the boot. I'm quite sure that he would have run a much better election campaign compared to PP and wouldn't have shown Trump-like behaviour and calling Canada broken.

The pro-convoy Maple MAGA wing of the CPC really wrecked things for the party.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I'm honestly not so sure about this. The Cons gave the left who cried about a centrist CPC leader what they wanted in 2021 and it didn't move the needle one bit. Now with a more right-wind leader the CPC are likely headed towards their 2nd best performance, popular vote wise.

I think the collapse of the NDP and Bloc likely happens no matter who the CPC leader is.

The real problem for the CPC is deeper than whoever the leader is (though PP is utterly horrible). The problem is the Reefwarm Maple Maga element out of Alberta. O’Toole’s downfall (for the crime of recognizing that fossil fuels are accelerating Climate Change and that vaccines aren’t a conspiracy) proved that the moderate veneer was only paper thin.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

And just like that Mainstreet has LPC back up by 1pt again

LPC: 44% (+11)
CPC: 43% (+9)
NDP: 5% (-13)
BQ: 4% (-4)
GPC: 2% (-)
PPC: 1% (-4)

Mainstreet / Apr 14, 2025 / n=1357 / Online

[Marshsparrow]

Danielle Smith out raging again against Carney on social media. The more she does this, the more I am convinced Carney is the right choice. Pierre would have a very hard time standing up to her, his maple MAGA followers and Trump.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Danielle Smith out raging again against Carney on social media. The more she does this, the more I am convinced Carney is the right choice. Pierre would have a very hard time standing up to her, his maple MAGA followers and Trump.

She is in bed with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).

The problem with this group is they predominately owned by foreign interests.

The Council of Canadians did a study about 3 years ago and found

Of the 48 corporations on CAPP’s board, 30 were confirmed to be fully or majority foreign-owned, while seven more are very likely majority foreign-owned.

About 97 per cent of all the oil produced by corporations on CAPP’s board in 2018 came from fully or majority foreign-owned corporations.

The oil and gas sector is a very poor producer of jobs because, on average, it creates only one half a job for every million dollars in value-added. No other major Canadian economic sector generates so few jobs per unit of value added. In contrast, Canada’s economy as a whole spawns an average of 8.6 jobs for each million dollars of value-added.

https://canadians.org/analysis/when-big-...it-does-so-foreign-money-and-huge-scale/

What the oil is good at is pushing up our per-capita GDP. Not a great producer of jobs.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I certainly agree that the woke left wing performative virtue signalling social justice activist Liberal Party takeover of Justin Trudeau helped create the Maple MAGA movement.

A pox on both their houses!!!

I do think however that Mark Carney could mean a new direction for the Liberal party. In addition, I firmly believe that Carney is absolutely the right man at the right moment to deal with Donald Trump in this time of existential crisis for the Canadian nation state.

Carney should be given his chance. I am however constitutionally a conservative, and, all things being equal, will vote Conservative. These however are not normal times. If in four years there is no change in the fundamental direction of the Liberal Party, then he should be given the bums rush. Hopefully by that time PP will no longer be the leader of the Conservative Party.

One thing I've noticed in our current iteration of politics is that people seem to underestimate how powerful the PMO is in government now. I don't even believe this to be a good thing for our democracy but it is the reality.

There is a lot of commentary about how Carney will be the same on policy because some of the veteran MP's around him are the same as the ones Trudeau had.

Elected MP's have very little power. Harper started this trend and Trudeau continued it. The idea behind "caucus meetings" was that MP's would be free to say whatever they want or think of the current governments ideas and policies. Share their concerns freely without punishment. But that is not really how it works anymore. PMO staffers are heavily involved in this things now and MP's are more or less messengers of the PM's agenda at this point.

Step out of line in caucus meetings and you'll find your cabinet spot gets relegated to something less prominent, or perhaps you even become a backbencher. Cabinet members can't even hire their own staffers anymore, their staff is instead decided by the PMO.

For our current situation this is good and bad. If you couldn't stand Trudeau, you should expect noticeable change as all the PMO power is now through Carney. The bad being, your elected MP (especially if you like them) isnt likely to be getting much influence in government policy.

We can also see this with the opposition leaders office. When have we ever seen a CPC MP speak out or have their own unique opinions? They aren't allowed to, we saw this with the housing accelerator fund where MPs who wanted to bring the benefits of that fund to their local communities were told not to advertise or promote it. You think every CPC MP agrees with PPs rhetoric? Hell no, although a good portion does I'm sure.

In summary, Harper & Trudeau were both bad about this issue, Carney does have a chance to change this, but if you are worried that the Guilbaults of the world are still going to be influencing policy I would say that is highly unlikely given how the PMO operates in our current government.

So when you go to the voting booth you are really voting for how the PMO office will be run, it sucks, but it is what it is. Given how PP is running his campaign in such an isolated matter I think the decision is an easy one. I would much matter someone competent like Carney running that office than a political attack dog like Poilievre. Which one will work better with others is an easy answer if you ask me.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

She is in bed with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).

The problem with this group is they predominately owned by foreign interests.

The Council of Canadians did a study about 3 years ago and found



https://canadians.org/analysis/when-big-...it-does-so-foreign-money-and-huge-scale/

What the oil is good at is pushing up our per-capita GDP. Not a great producer of jobs.

This is true and the major reason for our fall in productivity which just measures GDP per person. If you stick a hole in the ground and money comes out yes you are more productive. Of course we are literally the only country in the world not happy to have that free money and of course this is a vast oversimplification especially oil sands which requires huge capital outlays to process into a usable product.

CAPP certainly has an agenda and listening to lobbyists is always a bit dangerous but they also a huge taxpayer. Probably contributing more than the rest of the manufacturing sector combined.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is true and the major reason for our fall in productivity which just measures GDP per person. If you stick a hole in the ground and money comes out yes you are more productive. Of course we are literally the only country in the world not happy to have that free money and of course this is a vast oversimplification especially oil sands which requires huge capital outlays to process into a usable product.

CAPP certainly has an agenda and listening to lobbyists is always a bit dangerous but they also a huge taxpayer. Probably contributing more than the rest of the manufacturing sector combined.

That is the problem with per-capita GDP. There is nothing wrong with tourism, non-oil manufacturing or service industries growing in Canada. However seeing those industries grow will bring out per-capita GDP down.

Not against oil sector growth in principle or foreign ownership. However, when these oil companies are mostly foreign owned, I think we need to make certain Canada and Canadians are getting a fair share and a foreign owned industry is not playing an unreasonable role in our election. When we say foreign owned, we are talking about a larger portion of that being US. We are likely to hit a point in the coming years where the federal government is about to invest in piplines to help out this industry. The tax payers need to be compensated for that investment, and the benefits can't just to the shareholders.

[yaletown_fella]

Besides the espousing of net zero luxury beliefs, Poilievre is politically to the left of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

The Liberals trying to compare him to Trump shows the level of political illiteracy and heavy influence of American culture in Canada.

It's laughable. Canadas progressive taxation system and social safety net under Harper was more robust than what Bernie Sanders is fighting to acheive in the states.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is true and the major reason for our fall in productivity which just measures GDP per person. If you stick a hole in the ground and money comes out yes you are more productive. Of course we are literally the only country in the world not happy to have that free money and of course this is a vast oversimplification especially oil sands which requires huge capital outlays to process into a usable product.

CAPP certainly has an agenda and listening to lobbyists is always a bit dangerous but they also a huge taxpayer. Probably contributing more than the rest of the manufacturing sector combined.

Very true except the minor nitpick that productivity is not measured as GDP per person. It's measured as productive value created per labour hour. Productive value being how far the value of outputs (products/services) exceeds the value of inputs (materials and labour).

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

Besides the espousing of net zero luxury beliefs, Poilievre is politically to the left of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

The Liberals trying to compare him to Trump shows the level of political illiteracy and heavy influence of American culture in Canada.

It's laughable. Canadas progressive taxation system and social safety net under Harper was more robust than what Bernie Sanders is fighting to acheive in the states.

Please give examples that prove this point? Poilievre’s stated goals are to ‘cut the red tape!’, ‘cut taxes’, attack the ‘woke agenda’, reduce government benefits, turbo charge climate change (hell it doesn’t even exist to him) and enable Premiers like Danielle Smith. What on earth are you smoking to think any of that is left wing? Then again you recently claimed that climate activism was anti-semitic so who knows what your ideas about the political spectrum look like.

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by casper

The problem with this group is they predominately owned by foreign interests.

yet another "Casperism" (i.e. presenting a mistruth as fact)

Of the "Producers members" belonging to CAPP, 10 out of the 32 are foreign subsidiaries. And a quick scan shows that the mkt cap of the CDN members is about 5 times larger than the foreign subs.

For the "Associate members" of the 38, only 8 are foreign subsidiaries.

So out of 70 members it seems like 18 are foreign subs. Maybe math is different on the island.

[yaletown_fella]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Please give examples that prove this point? Poilievre’s stated goals are to ‘cut the red tape!’, ‘cut taxes’, attack the ‘woke agenda’, reduce government benefits, turbo charge climate change (hell it doesn’t even exist to him) and enable Premiers like Danielle Smith. What on earth are you smoking to think any of that is left wing? Then again you recently claimed that climate activism was anti-semitic so who knows what your ideas about the political spectrum look like.

I said the climate emergency extremist movement is rife with antisemitism including more recent developments of Greta Thunberg (knowingly or just out of ignorance, I dont know) espousing anti-Israel Talking points that are rooted in centuries old Xtian Blood Libel. While Xtians and atheists are usually blind to this, to me it's plainly obvious throughout BDS campaigns, slogans, illustrations and literature

I have no issue and often align with people who are for animal rights , who oppose Victoria and other cities dumping raw sewage into waterways , or who see potential in RNG as an eventual alternative to LNG fracking. Hell, as a kosher pescatarian , I think lab grown meat is a great idea . But I dont think governments should use taxation to control peoples behavior.

But I oppose the Just Transition/Climate Emergency narrative and governments picking winners and losers in the economy or bans on oil and gas , supply chain carbon taxes and other economically destructive measures that reduce Canadian quality of life and freedom. CO2 is not a pollutant.

Read Alex Epsteins Fossil Future, its phenomenal.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

Oh great - that argument again

LPC: 44% (+11)
CPC: 39% (+5)
NDP: 6% (-12)
BQ: 5% (-3)
GPC: 2% (-)
PPC: 2% (-3)

Liaison / Apr 14, 2025 / n=1500 / MOE 2.5% / IVR

LPC: 44% (+11)
CPC: 39% (+5)
NDP: 9% (-9)
BQ: 6% (-2)
PPC: 2% (-3)
GPC: 1% (-1)

Nanos / Apr 14, 2025 / n=1367 / MOE 2.7% / Telephone/Online

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Please give examples that prove this point? Poilievre’s stated goals are to ‘cut the red tape!’, ‘cut taxes’, attack the ‘woke agenda’, reduce government benefits, turbo charge climate change (hell it doesn’t even exist to him) and enable Premiers like Danielle Smith. What on earth are you smoking to think any of that is left wing? Then again you recently claimed that climate activism was anti-semitic so who knows what your ideas about the political spectrum look like.

Polievre as a person is likely to the right of Trump other than on immigration and related issues.

He would be constrained but absolutely would like to lead us to be as deregulated and untaxed as the US under say Geroge W Bush.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by FrankieFlowerpot

And just like that Mainstreet has LPC back up by 1pt again

According to Mainstreets website todays result would give:

-LPC 187 seats
-CPC 139 seats

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by harls

?

My understanding is that Carney is reassigning those button guys to another post, and he should have flat out fired them.

And Frankie said - 'How are you bad at this?', referring to the Liberal party fucking this up.

Like, I'm practically on your side here, dude.

Yeah the quick action was good but not sure why they weren't fired.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

I said the climate emergency extremist movement is rife with antisemitism including more recent developments of Greta Thunberg (knowingly or just out of ignorance, I dont know) espousing anti-Israel Talking points that are rooted in centuries old Xtian Blood Libel.

I have no issue and often align with people who are for animal rights , who oppose Victoria and other cities dumping raw sewage into waterways , or who see potential in RNG as an eventual alternative to LNG fracking. Hell, as a kosher pescatarian , I think lab grown meat is a great idea . But I dont think governments should use taxation to control peoples behavior.

But I oppose the Just Transition/Climate Emergency narrative and governments picking winners and losers in the economy or bans on oil and gas.

Read Alex Epsteins Fossil Future, its phenomenal.

Totally against the Climate emergency agenda and pretty supportive of Israel too but this seems to be a woke right nonsense where any criticism of Israel is anti-Semitic. It's also pretty obvious given how much influence Isreal has in US Republican politics saying that's some Rothschild conspiracy also seems dubious though choosing to focus on that seems irrelevant. They don't understand it's not all lobbying but many just support the more culturally compatible side and don't care about the history that much. Along with of course the Christian support for Israel the worst example being the doomsdayers.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

But I oppose the Just Transition/Climate Emergency narrative and governments picking winners and losers in the economy or bans on oil and gas , supply chain carbon taxes and other economically destructive measures that reduce Canadian quality of life and freedom. CO2 is not a pollutant.

Read Alex Epsteins Fossil Future, its phenomenal.

This whole "CO2 is not a pollutant" is such a stupid talking point. Anything in the wrong place or quality can be a pollutant. Water isn't a pollutant and is in fact necessary for life, but too much water in the wrong place at the wrong time can can kill thousands of people through flooding. Or water in a bag of grain can cause rot. Or people can even get water toxicity by drinking too much too quickly. Feces can be a pollutant in food but is a beneficial fertilizer in the production of food. Salt is a naturally occurring mineral that most animals need in small amounts but is harmful to most plants and animals in excess quantities. Just like CO2 in the atmosphere is normal and beneficial but too much causes problems. Whether or not you want to use terms like pollutant, toxin, or whatever is irrelevant to any of these facts. The wrong quantity at the wrong time causes problems. And it causes big enough problems that it threatens quality of life and freedom if it isn't addressed.