Canadian Federal Election

[elly63]

Originally Posted by bolognium

However, expecting people to watch right-leaning rage-bait lookin videos without you at least offering a morsel of an opinion or catalyst for discussion to begin is borderline rude.

Are you so active in this thread because you're trying to change people's minds? Or are you active because you're trying to have a genuine discussion with people, but you're having a difficult time connecting with everyone?!

First of all, I'm laid up right now and there isn't much else I can do to pass the time. Secondly I will say yet again, I don't expect anybody to watch any video they think they might not like or are interested in, I certainly don't.

But I also don't expect to see disingenuous comments about a video they haven't watched, that is totally illiberal. Almost every commentator is biased now but that doesn't mean they have to have the same beliefs as the interviewee. It might be an adversarial interview and you have to hope that the interviewer is fair when it comes editing time. Were the networks fair or overtly adversarial with Trump? Just because I have a preconceived notion does that mean I won't watch. I'll watch and make my mind up after I've seen it whether it was fair or not.

I am under zero illusion I am going to change anybody's mind, some folks are reasonable many here are not. I just try to have things be fair. There is no way I am going to defend some Conservative over something I think is stupid (like if they did the buttons), but we're so siloed now people want to defend their side to the death. Well, I'm not that guy, but this shouldn't be a leftist echo chamber either. Besides somebody has to hold the fort for Acajack if he ever comes back.

[elly63]

• Video Link

[elly63]

This is what I meant by further covering a significant story. Also, seeing this coverage I would assume they'll have a separate story as well.

• Video Link

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

The U.S. polling did seem to show Harris ahead more often than not, but the race was always closer than people often remember. Looking at wikipedia's page on the polling results for the election, both parties regularly took the lead in the polls (though the Dems more often) and Harris' leads ranged mostly from 1-3 percent. The polling aggregators mostly had Harris leading by one point or less, whereas Canadian aggregators currently have the Liberals in the lead by five or six points--and we know that due to the vote efficiency problems the Conservatives have, that's effectively a lead of more like eight points. The polling in Canada could be wrong by triplethe margin of error and the Liberals would still likely win.

Now, again, maybe Mainstreet is picking up on something. Or maybe it's the inevitable occassional bad poll. We should have a much clearer idea by mid-week, at which point there will be the opportunity for the debates to move things one way or another.

In both countries the polling for the entire country is quite meaningless for actual outcome. You have to look at each province/state at the very least. Of course here it goes by number of seats won and US presidential elections are by state which determine the electoral college outcome. Jurisdictions like Alberta or California can really make one party or presidential candidate look like he/she is doing well overall but in fact isn't that close for the outcome.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by harls

Do they airbrush Rosie Barton and Omar Sachedina into 'oh face' poses as well?

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Ok back to some polling,

Angus Reid dropped

LPC= 45
CPC= 39
NDP= 7

Men are voting for PP, women are voting for Carney. Like Ipsos, AR is showing a tightening race. Regionals remain strong for LPC.

Preferred PM:

Carney= 49
Poilievre= 30
Neither= 13

Other Tidbits:

-LPC leads Atlantic Canada by 20+ points, Quebec by 12 points, Ontario by 10 points, and tied in BC
-CPC leads the Prairies
-LPC leads the 905 by a thumping 16 points.

The preferred PM numbers are the ones to watch closely. A lot of people who decide last minute usually reflect the preferred PM numbers more than the preferred party from my observations over the years. Right now PP is in Tim Hudak territory. Him being leader is hurting the party's chances according to polls.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Him being leader is hurting the party's chances according to polls.

Yup, Cons could still be in the lead had they chosen a more centrist and broadly appealing candidate.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Yup, Cons could still be in the lead had they chosen a more centrist and broadly appealing candidate.

Like Michael Chong or Jean Charest. Instead they chose this irksome twit.

[Nouvellecosse]

While I'm not a fan personally, I think Pierre is doing pretty well given the circumstances. I'm not saying there's no chance the CPC could win against Carney (whether with PP or another leader) but it's a tough ask. I don't think they've run a bad campaign; it just isn't their moment.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Yup, Cons could still be in the lead had they chosen a more centrist and broadly appealing candidate.

I'm honestly not so sure about this. The Cons gave the left who cried about a centrist CPC leader what they wanted in 2021 and it didn't move the needle one bit. Now with a more right-wind leader the CPC are likely headed towards their 2nd best performance, popular vote wise.

I think the collapse of the NDP and Bloc likely happens no matter who the CPC leader is.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

While I'm not a fan personally, I think Pierre is doing pretty well given the circumstances. I'm not saying there's no chance the CPC could win against Carney (whether with PP or another leader) but it's a tough ask. I don't think they've run a bad campaign; it just isn't their moment.

More or less agree. Well, I mean, you’re right that PP is doing okay for such a dislikable politician, and that’s even impressive, but then the question is, do we fault him for being dislikable or is that “just who he is” like it’s an attribute that can’t get changed?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

While I'm not a fan personally, I think Pierre is doing pretty well given the circumstances. I'm not saying there's no chance the CPC could win against Carney (whether with PP or another leader) but it's a tough ask. I don't think they've run a bad campaign; it just isn't their moment.

I don't know. Charest seems like he'd be flailing as well but someone who treated the issue as Doug Ford did and who went to Alberta and threatened to cut off the oil and called Trudeau weak would be in a strong lead right now.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Ok back to some polling,

Angus Reid dropped

LPC= 45
CPC= 39
NDP= 7

Men are voting for PP, women are voting for Carney. Like Ipsos, AR is showing a tightening race. Regionals remain strong for LPC.

Preferred PM:

Carney= 49
Poilievre= 30
Neither= 13

Other Tidbits:

-LPC leads Atlantic Canada by 20+ points, Quebec by 12 points, Ontario by 10 points, and tied in BC
-CPC leads the Prairies
-LPC leads the 905 by a thumping 16 points.

ARI and Ipsos feels more like a reversion to the polling mean more than what is trying to be framed as a "tightening". Like the previous Ipsos felt very much like an outlier poll, but their latest release feels much more reasonable.

Mainstreet is certainly a curious case right now, so we'll see in the coming days where their next samples go. They've been showing the strongest CPC numbers for a while now.

It's worth pointing out that the CPC numbers are really being pumped up by what they're seeing in Alberta and the Prairies. Seeing as polling agencies have tended to underestimate CPC support there for the previous elections, their CPC vote share could end up being accurate. However, because of where the vote is coming from, it does nothing to actually improve their chances of winning the election.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by elly63

This is what I meant by further covering a significant story. Also, seeing this coverage I would assume they'll have a separate story as well.

• Video Link

I wonder if there is a "Stop The Steal" movement that pops up post election, how much responsibility would the Liberals have here?

If you fan the flames...

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I'm honestly not so sure about this. The Cons gave the left who cried about a centrist CPC leader what they wanted in 2021 and it didn't move the needle one bit. Now with a more right-wind leader the CPC are likely headed towards their 2nd best performance, popular vote wise.

I think the collapse of the NDP and Bloc likely happens no matter who the CPC leader is.

I think this is a reasonable argument but 2021 saw a very popular Liberal government because of the rally around the flag during the depths of Covid post a pretty good Vaccine roll out that 80% of us were happy with. There was a bit of anger at Trudeau calling the election so quickly but O'Toole was forced to protect his flank from the anti-vaxxers and equivocate on vaccines. The Liberals cleverly pushed the wedge as deep as they could and ended up getting a bit lucky with vote splits to win. O'Toole was also pretty vanilla chosen as a compromise. A Ford or Caroline Mulroney would be dominating for sure.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I'm honestly not so sure about this. The Cons gave the left who cried about a centrist CPC leader what they wanted in 2021 and it didn't move the needle one bit. Now with a more right-wind leader the CPC are likely headed towards their 2nd best performance, popular vote wise.

I think the collapse of the NDP and Bloc likely happens no matter who the CPC leader is.

Different times. PP did not move the needle. The Libs had the bad luck of being the post-COVID incumbent, a phenomenon which struck politicians globally. Plus they made it worse for themselves by promoting disastrous immigration levels. The Cons would have risen in popularity no matter what.

The Bloc and NDP collapse less when their voters have fewer reasons to fear the Cons. If the Cons want to cede the centre to the Libs, then they are free to keep making the same mistake.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by theman23

I wonder if there is a "Stop The Steal" movement that pops up post election, how much responsibility would the Liberals have here?

If you fan the flames...

Considering this stupid, unnecessary act is now public knowledge, any Con who decides to use it as inspiration would look that much more ridiculous.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

As the kids say “the tea is being spilled”

[theman23]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Considering this stupid, unnecessary act is now public knowledge, any Con who decides to use it as inspiration would look that much more ridiculous.

The point I'm making is the the Liberals have clearly been trying to fan the flames around this type of rhetoric because it benefits them politically. This is very much similar to what they did in the 2021 election with fringe opinions around COVID, or what they tried to do for the last few years by trying to re open the debate around abortion.

When the backlash comes I just hope that the blame gets apportioned appropriately.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by bolognium

...I've probably posted more today than I have in the last month because you are single-handedly tanking this thread and it's frustrating...

Blaming the issues with this thread solely on Elly63 is unfair and out of line. Could there have perhaps been more explanation as to why the videos were relevant? Sure, and I think they understand that now. However, your post went too far.