Quote:
Originally Posted by Taeolas
Yeah, I'm puzzled by this odd poll, and a bit concerned about it (mainly due to how messy polling was in the States). It makes me worried the other polling companies are chasing an illusion for some reason and the Hopium levels have gotten too high.
Maybe/hopefully this is just a proper outlier and it will snap back in their next polling cycle, or something else will happen.
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The U.S. polling did seem to show Harris ahead more often than not, but the race was always closer than people often remember. Looking at wikipedia's page on the polling results for the election, both parties regularly took the lead in the polls (though the Dems more often) and Harris' leads ranged mostly from 1-3 percent. The polling aggregators mostly had Harris leading by one point or less, whereas Canadian aggregators currently have the Liberals in the lead by five or six points--and we know that due to the vote efficiency problems the Conservatives have, that's effectively a lead of more like eight points. The polling in Canada could be wrong by
triplethe margin of error and the Liberals would still likely win.
Now, again, maybe Mainstreet is picking up on something. Or maybe it's the inevitable occassional bad poll. We should have a much clearer idea by mid-week, at which point there will be the opportunity for the debates to move things one way or another.