Quote:
Originally Posted by Drybrain
I'm really interested in what's going on with this Mainstreet poll. The other tracking polls yesterday and today didn't find a hint of this sudden surge for the Conservatives. There were also new polls from Pallas and Pollara today, conducted over the same timeframe as the Mainstreet polls, which show the same or higher Liberal support compared to their previous polls. (In fairness I think Pollara is a new entrant without much track record, but still.)
As well, there doesn't seem to be any reason for such a rapid and large swing. Mainstreet had the Liberals up by six points just five days ago. Nothing in either the Liberal or Conservative campaigns, nor any outside developments, would seem to be capable of inspiring dramatic shifts in either direction, for either party.
I'm entirely open to the possibility that this indicates something the other pollsters haven't picked up, but it also seems very possible that this is just an anomaly, or a bad sample. If polls are accurate 19 times out of 20, maybe this is the one time. (Though it is two days in a row, I suppose.)
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Yeah, I'm puzzled by this odd poll, and a bit concerned about it (mainly due to how messy polling was in the States). It makes me worried the other polling companies are chasing an illusion for some reason and the Hopium levels have gotten too high.
Maybe/hopefully this is just a proper outlier and it will snap back in their next polling cycle, or something else will happen.
On a different note (And the "YOU"'s I'm about to say are NOT directed to Drybrain; just a Generic "YOU"; I just don't want to double post), I generally ignore video links, unless someone at least provides a proper TL;DW summary saying WHY I should watch it.
I've probably been too trained by the policies on a different set of boards I'm on; but generally speaking, on a message board, we are talking (and often debating) with YOU, the posters on THIS board. The points we are discussing and debating are the ones YOU are making. A video link may be making points, but we aren't debating the video creator. So it is up to the video poster to outline what is in the video and how it helps their position, at least in enough detail to either encourage people to watch or to at least continue the discussion. If we wanted to discuss the video itself, Youtube has a perfectly passible (if downright toxic) comment section where many videos can be discussed, often with the video creator.
But that's just my point of view.