Canadian Federal Election

[elly63]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Yes, I think it's fair to say that Carney will be more financially responsible and not as blindly ideological as Trudeau

There are some who say he's worse. His wife is charitably called an environmentalist some have said eco-warrior.

Out of respect for one of his children I won't go into it (although they made their life story publicly available by posting it) Sufficed to say most fathers love and support their children so he is likely to be predisposed to be sympathetic to some ideological activism.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by samne

Ben Mulroney has been hosting on a Toronto conservative talk radio for a while now. He’s a lot deeper than his eTalk days. I expect him to make the jump politics at some point.

He's a smart guy and smart guys know their limitations. He was asked if he had aspirations and he deflected to his sister but said he might be open to something smaller like Mayor of Toronto. I get the feeling he doesn't like her and from what I saw on her US tour she looked useless.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by elly63

He's a smart guy and smart guys know their limitations. He was asked if he had aspirations and he deflected to his sister but said he might be open to something smaller like Mayor of Toronto. I get the feeling he doesn't like her and from what I saw on her US tour she looked useless.

He wants to support his sister as PM in 2029. She seems like she could find a niche if PP gets decimated they might be ready for an Ontario centrist even one with the Mulroney name. She wisely supported the Feds despite Ford's directive.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is a good take. The Liberals get blamed for a lot of world conditions but there actual mistakes as I see them are:
1. Anti business on climate and energy...

This should be a very real concern for voters. Carney is not friendly towards resource extraction, one area that Canada should be exploiting in the face of US trade chaos.

China just effectively put an embargo on many rare earth metals. Who has confidence in Carney and the Libs taking on indigenous and environmental groups to get rare earth mining underway in a meaningful way?

[elly63]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

He wants to support his sister as PM in 2029. She seems like she could find a niche if PP gets decimated they might be ready for an Ontario centrist even one with the Mulroney name. She wisely supported the Feds despite Ford's directive.

Unlike, it seems, Poilievre, if she can get that Ontario machine behind her, she could be in. I think the whole populist thing will soon run its course. MAGA dies with Trump as no one else has the force of personality to do what he does. They can try but they'll fail.

A centrist is surely what all Canada needs going forward. Aside from the lengthy Liberal stay, I just have this feeling that the Carney shelf life will be short. People talk about his temper, which I don't think is a big deal but I think unlike Trudeau where the burn was slow, people will turn on Carney real quick. No proof at all, just a feeling and it may well have to do with cultivating our resources (or his lack thereof)

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by elly63

Unlike, it seems, Poilievre, if she can get that Ontario machine behind her, she could be in.

A centrist is surely what all Canada needs going forward. Aside from the lengthy Liberal stay, I just have this feeling that the Carney shelf life will be short. People talk about his temper, which I don't think is a big deal but I think unlike Trudeau where the burn was slow, people will turn on Carney real quick. No proof at all, just a feeling.

These things are really impossible to predict. The logic is 14 years of one party will mean 2029 we are really ready for a change. But Carney might succeed in blazing a new path and if the NDP and Bloc are down for the count it's very tough for the Conservatives.

The Conservative membership also might lurch even further to the right. Or implode. There's been hints of western alienation but Conservatives across the country are going to be in full revolt if Carney gets another Liberal majority.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The Conservative membership also might lurch even further to the right. Or implode. There's been hints of western alienation but Conservatives across the country are going to be in full revolt if Carney gets another Liberal majority.

I dunno, I think the party should come back to the center. I think people are tiring of the divisiveness and I say that fully aware of the two sides posting here, but most people aren't like this.

I don't think there will be Western alienation if they are thrown a few bones. I just don't have a lot of faith that the Liberals will do that

[casper]

Originally Posted by elly63

I dunno, I think the party should come back to the center. I think people are tiring of the divisiveness and I say that fully aware of the two sides posting here, but most people aren't like this.

I don't think there will be Western alienation if they are thrown a few bones. I just don't have a lot of faith that the Liberals will do that

The West will be electing Liberals in good numbers if the polling numbers hold out. Manitoba and BC are expected to be dominated by Liberal MPs. The arctic is forecasted to be all Liberals. They will also pick up a few seats in Alberta and perhaps one in Saskatchewan.

The idea that somehow the Conservatives views reflect all of Western Canada is just wrong.

Canadian oil exports have hit new records virtually every year since Trudeau came to power. The only exception was during COVID. Regardless of what party is in power we are not likely to see that for the next four years. The world is heading for a recession (or worse), price of oil is tanking and industry is not willing to invest in explorations or expansions during that type of climate.

LNG is an exception its economics are independent of oil. Government funded pipelines are also an expectation.

Anyone who expects the private sector to build a pipeline with depressed world oil prices are dreaming. The Conservates do not believe in crown corporations. There is no way a pipeline will get built under their watch with these conditions. The Liberals are the only ones willing to move a project like that forward.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

Anyone who expects the private sector to build a pipeline with depressed world oil prices are dreaming. The Conservates do not believe in crown corporations. There is no way a pipeline will get built under their watch with these conditions. The Liberals are the only ones willing to move a project like that forward.

I actually agree with this. For oil investors, workers I think there is a very good argument that Carney is better. A likely outcome would see him invest government money in another pipeline while also investing in a large green energy project as balance. The Canadian taxpayer gets to pay for both. Meanwhile a Conservative government would attempt to let the private sector ram through a pipeline probably unsuccessfully. Removing the cap and other regulatory changes will be seen as temporary so unlikely to spur investment.

[Marty_Mcfly]

https://x.com/BryanPassifiume/status/1911569486697668629/photo/1

Liberal party responding to a Sun reporter regarding the buttons.

Honestly this is a pretty weak response and downplays what the staffers did. Very disappointing.

[Djeffery]

My local Liberal candidate (we are in a CPC held riding) got his new batch of signs last week that I've been seeing in the neighbourhood. I'm in London quite often and haven't seen any similar from Liberal candidates there, didn't know if this was a local initiative or a general Liberal idea.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I actually agree with this. For oil investors, workers I think there is a very good argument that Carney is better. A likely outcome would see him invest government money in another pipeline while also investing in a large green energy project as balance. The Canadian taxpayer gets to pay for both. Meanwhile a Conservative government would attempt to let the private sector ram through a pipeline probably unsuccessfully. Removing the cap and other regulatory changes will be seen as temporary so unlikely to spur investment.

If they can make the projects break even over time lets just do it and move on.

Private investors want to get their money over a relatively short time period. Governments work on different time horizons. Government is also going to make tax revenue for the economic activity.

It sounds like Trans-mountain expansions has changed the competitive dynamics of oil in the other pipelines heading to the US. The result is Alberta producers are making an extra $7B US last year. That is just from reducing the discount between Western Canada Select (WCS) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

None of that goes to the transmountain pipeline, so it never shows up on their balance sheet. Positive for Canadian producers, results in increased royalties for Alberta, and more tax revenue for government.

[travis3000]

Mainstreet is going to have their first poll of the campaign tomorrow which will show the CPC leading in popular vote. They had a very successful weekend in polling at least from Mainstreet.

Liaison was in the field during the same time and has a LPC+8, so take it with a grain of salt. Nanos is still showing LPC +5 during the same period. Ekos CEO commented that his firm was in the field all weekend and showed zero swing to the CPC. Abacus was out today with a new poll showing LPC+4. Finally MQO Data (an Atlantic Canada firm) had a new federal poll out today showing LPC+9.

Ipsos had a new poll out today showing LPC +6 , Bricker (CEO) is pushing the tightening narrative again for Global News. Funny enough, his poll put into a seat count is a 199 LPC majority, and the CPC actually loses 7 seats from 2021.

Tomorrow we have new data coming out from Angus Reid and Pollara, then Leger and Research & Co on Tuesday. We will also hear from Pallas Data this week.

Debates on Wednesday/Thursday. Advanced voting begins Friday. We might see some shifting happening here. Trump is taking a breather recently, the focus is shifting back to more basic issues like the economy, jobs, cost of living (PP has a better chance winning on these issues).

It's not over until its over.

[Marty_Mcfly]

^ The Abacus data is from the 10th; David Coletto's tweets are a little confusing and misleading as he talks about his polls as if they are fresh off the press when they are actually a little old.

I'm not particularly convinced that there's any meaningful tightening happening in the polls. I do think Mainstreet seeing an increase in CPC support over the weekends is interesting, and may indicate that the party could potentially outperform their polling numbers, but not anywhere to the extent that would put them in contention to win the election.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by elly63

I only have a dog in the Canada fight not the Alberta fight but if they don't throw a bone to Alberta what clear honest thinking person can blame Alberta for being so desperate. What are they supposed to do? If there isn't a cross Canada pipeline built and going through Quebec (and one going west) I don't blame Albertans for doing what they think is best for them.

Many people argue that a pipeline heading east is not financially viable. I’m all for investing in profitable infrastructure but if this is purely to feed Albertan fantasies of victimhood, then no. Carney seems like someone who will make the right choice based on facts not emotion.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Many people argue that a pipeline heading east is not financially viable.

We import billions of dollars of oil and gas despite being one of the largest oil and gas producers on the planet. On face value, there seems to be plenty of economic sense, even without factoring in potential exports.

And more importantly, there are economic security implications. And there is the argument that oil travelling through a pipeline is more environmentally friendly than oil being shipped across the world. To say nothing of the ethics of buying Canadian energy over that of repressive dictatorships and theocracies.

Personally, I'm leaning toward the Liberals this election, but if the Liberal platform seems weak on energy, that could very well be my impetus to switch back to the Tories. The current Conservatives induce fear and disgust, but so does the prospect of pissing away another decade of energy prosperity for misguided green virtue signaling.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

My local Liberal candidate (we are in a CPC held riding) got his new batch of signs last week that I've been seeing in the neighbourhood. I'm in London quite often and haven't seen any similar from Liberal candidates there, didn't know if this was a local initiative or a general Liberal idea.

I've only seen one Liberal sign here in New West and it was pretty standard red with the candidate's name in white.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

My local Liberal candidate (we are in a CPC held riding) got his new batch of signs last week that I've been seeing in the neighbourhood. I'm in London quite often and haven't seen any similar from Liberal candidates there, didn't know if this was a local initiative or a general Liberal idea.

The Liberal sign in my deep blue riding is a muted, burnt orange (almost NDP) colour. It’s like they’re afraid of the instant recognition of Liberal red.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by savevp

We import billions of dollars of oil and gas despite being one of the largest oil and gas producers on the planet. On face value, there seems to be plenty of economic sense, even without factoring in potential exports.

And more importantly, there are economic security implications. And there is the argument that oil travelling through a pipeline is more environmentally friendly than oil being shipped across the world. To say nothing of the ethics of buying Canadian energy over that of repressive dictatorships and theocracies.

Yes, there are many potentially valid reasons. I want to have faith my government will wisely consider all of them before coming to a decision. Carney seems to want to strike that balance. I remember lots of voices claimed that Site C wasn’t needed in BC but now we have pretty much accounted for that extra hydro capacity. I try to take every data point and opinion with a grain of salt.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Liberal party responding to a Sun reporter regarding the buttons.

Honestly this is a pretty weak response and downplays what the staffers did. Very disappointing.

What a gutless gaslighting response that was from the 87 percenters. I thought Carney was supposed to be different, that was straight out of Justin's playbook.