Canadian Federal Election

[travis3000]

Further tightening in the daily polls:

Liaison
LPC= 43%
CPC= 40% (all time high)
NDP= 8%

https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/national-tracker-liberals-44-conservatives-39-3/

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You're assuming Drumpf actually cares about the mess he is creating. He is a sociopath. He doesn't care.

The only thing Herr Drumpf cares about is his golf game..........

He'll care if congressional republicans start turning against him because they want to get re-elected. (Members of the House face re-election every two years)

Trump is likely going to be impeached multiple times again before his second term is over, the question is if there will eventually be enough votes in the senate to indict him. If the economic crisis gets bad enough, there could eventually be enough Republican Senators brave enough to indict him after being impeached by the House.

I think Trump at least cares enough to try and avoid that.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Further tightening in the daily polls:

Liaison
LPC= 43%
CPC= 40% (all time high)
NDP= 8%

https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/national-tracker-liberals-44-conservatives-39-3/

and Poilievre's unfavourables have hit an all time high, especially among women.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I think Trump at least cares enough to try and avoid that.

Drumpf doesn't care.

If he smells trouble, his back-up plan will be the Insurrection Act. He has placed friendly generals in the Pentagon willing to carry out his orders. Expect troops in the streets and mass arrests of his opponents. He will not be successfully impeached. In fact, I expect him to be in office well beyond the end of his second term. He may even declare himself President-for-Life and make the Presidency hereditary. Don Jr, is waiting in the wings.............

[MonctonRad]

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 43.9%, 200 seats
CPC - 37.3%, 118 seats
BLQ - 5.3%, 19 seats
NDP - 8.6%, 5 seats
GRN - 2.3%, 1 seat
PPC - 1.8%, 0 seats.

I tend to believe the poll tracker more than a single poll from one polling company. The poll tracker combines the results from every reputable polling firm.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 43.9%, 200 seats
CPC - 37.3%, 118 seats
BLQ - 5.3%, 19 seats
NDP - 8.6%, 5 seats
GRN - 2.3%, 1 seat
PPC - 1.8%, 0 seats.

I tend to believe the poll tracker more than a single poll from one polling company. The poll tracker combines the results from every reputable polling firm.

It's the safest bet for sure but groups of polls can be wrong. It could be 43-40 or even 42-42 at the extreme. The bad news for the Cons is a tie with such low NDP and Bloc vote share is a decisive loss for the Cons. The Libs likely even win a majority at 43-40 and even closer.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Don Jr, is waiting in the wings.............

*shudders*

[Taeolas]

The accumulators probably give a stronger picture of where we're at than individual polls.

CBC's tracker seems to be giving the Liberals a slightly higher seat count than 338.

338 as I look at it now has the Liberals getting 191 seats. But like CBC, they have a 99% chance of a Liberal win, and an 87% chance of a majority.

We've still got a week to go to the debates, so a week of grinding when the polls probably won't change much. And really, I don't see the debates changing much either.


And on a side note, looking at the 338 graphs, "338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats" on the 2024-2025 view is probably one of the most boggling charts I've seen. In a literal 2 month period, we go from 100% chance of a CPC win to a 100% of a LPC win. Down in the CE thread I think someone pointed out how this is one of the biggest turnarounds ever seen in world history (at least for Democratic countries)

[KnoxfordGuy]

I'd be shocked if either party win a majority.

[MonctonRad]

The Conservatives have come out with better ads recently, but, they are making up for this by the way they are mistreating the mainstream media journalists, even to the point of shoving and pushing them behind barriers. This is despicable.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

I'd be shocked if either party win a majority.

You don't believe the polls? The Conservatives have a near zero chance of a majority. They need a 10%+ polling error which I don't think has happened anywhere with widespread professional polling. 2016 US election had a huge event in the last few days and the polls were "off" by 3-4 points and it's known as a huge polling error. But the most likely outcome is a Liberal majority at current polling levels as even a 4 point error from the average is a clear Liberal majority as they only need a 2-3 point lead to get there.

[Marshsparrow]

on not believing the polls, the election deniers have already started with the CPC conspiracy crowd... flags and sweaters "Do You Believe in Polls?" "Too Big to Rig" showing up at CPC rallies and online...

Distrust in our elections is not a good look... not surprised the CPC is the ones putting this narrative forward.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Further tightening in the daily polls:

Liaison
LPC= 43%
CPC= 40% (all time high)
NDP= 8%

https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/national-tracker-liberals-44-conservatives-39-3/

Can't take day-to-day fluctuations like this as meaning much at all. Liaison had been widening for days, then it tightened. Day-to-day changes in this range are noise, it's trends that matter.

In any case, Mainstreet's tracker flipped this morning in exactly the opposite way, from yesterday's three-point gap to a seven-point gap.

LPC= 46%
CPC= 39%
NDP= 6%

So from one pollster's perspective, the situation has worsened for the Liberals. From the other perspective, things have improved. Taken together, nothing has changed.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The Conservatives have come out with better ads recently, but, they are making up for this by the way they are mistreating the mainstream media journalists, even to the point of shoving and pushing them behind barriers. This is despicable.

Again terrible optics. Why are they scared? PP likes the tough guy image and although I'm not a fan of how he handles the media normally, it has to be better than this.

[hipster duck]

This is obviously not going to move the needle on anything, but Carney and Singh agreed to be interviewed by Nardwuar, and Poilievre was the only major party leader (Blanchet doesn't count) to decline.

For those who don't know, Nardwuar has become famous for interviewing musical celebrities (with a particular cult following in the hip hop community) by digging deep into their personal life, finding memorabilia and music that they have an emotional attachment to, and asking them to reflect on that. The responses are often genuine and heartwarming and are a good view into a person's character.

There are no questions about political positions or policy. Nardwuar is, very likely, somebody on the autism spectrum who puts an obsessive level of energy into finding things from your childhood that should tug at your heartstrings. If you can't respond to these things, then you have no soul. Declining an interview with him is very telling.

• Video Link

[WarrenC12]

I find Nardwuar annoying, but did suffer through the video with Carney. He's a real person. The flashbacks to the Harper attempted interview say it all. PP should take a few minutes from his day to show us he has a personality.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You're assuming Drumpf actually cares about the mess he is creating. He is a sociopath. He doesn't care.

The only thing Herr Drumpf cares about is his golf game..........

He doesn't even understand the mess he is creating. He admitted yesterday he was watching the bond market and that's why he backed off. They actually believed bonds would go down and they'd be able to reduce interest payments on US debt. His plan blew up faster than lettuce lady in the UK. Think of Trump as America's Yelstin and everything starts to make sense.

I don't think what Trump wants is relevant. We need to pick a PM would understands the incredible change in the global environment and can steer Canada through it.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

As for the bolded, I'm not convinced Trump and the Republicans particularly care about the political fortunes of the Conservative Party of Canada.

I think they do. See JD Vance going and lecturing Europe based on memes about immigration over there, which has almost zero to do with American interests.

I think people vastly underestimate their prickishness towards having very openly left leaning governments in certain countries. The best line I've heard for why they care? "They see Canada as the North American stratetgic reserve of white people."

[niwell]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

This is obviously not going to move the needle on anything, but Carney and Singh agreed to be interviewed by Nardwuar, and Poilievre was the only major party leader (Blanchet doesn't count) to decline.

For those who don't know, Nardwuar has become famous for interviewing musical celebrities (with a particular cult following in the hip hop community) by digging deep into their personal life, finding memorabilia and music that they have an emotional attachment to, and asking them to reflect on that. The responses are often genuine and heartwarming and are a good view into a person's character.

There are no questions about political positions or policy. Nardwuar is, very likely, somebody on the autism spectrum who puts an obsessive level of energy into finding things from your childhood that should tug at your heartstrings. If you can't respond to these things, then you have no soul. Declining an interview with him is very telling.

Was about to post this but see you beat me to it! Definitely telling as it's a pretty well known thing that Nardwuar isn't going to throw any policy fastballs at you. It's a good opportunity to come off as a likeable person.

As an aside it still blows my mind that someone I was watching do his thing on MuchMusic as a kid is still at it.

[whatnext]

Oh those Libs, just can't stay away from their China-lovin', foreign interference ways:

Liberal candidate Peter Yuen, chosen to replace Paul Chiang, linked to pro-Beijing groups, events
Robert Fife Ottawa Bureau Chief
Steven Chase Senior parliamentary reporter
Includes correction
Ottawa
Published 7 hours ago
Updated 3 hours ago
For Subscribers

The Liberal candidate selected by Mark Carney to replace one who was dropped over a China-related controversy is a member of a Beijing-friendly lobby organization and has given talks at events honouring a Toronto group that advocates for the annexation of Taiwan by China.

Onetime Toronto police deputy chief Peter Yuen, who is now carrying the Liberal banner in the Toronto-area riding of Markham-Unionville, succeeded Paul Chiang. The former MP stepped down April 1 after news broke that he had talked to reporters about how someone could take a Conservative candidate and human-rights advocate to the Chinese consulate to claim a bounty put on him by Hong Kong authorities....

... Mr. Yuen appears to have a strong relationship with China’s diplomatic mission in Toronto. In 2014, the consulate held an event to mark his promotion to Toronto police superintendent. He has attended consulate celebrations, including one in January, 2020, that included a photo display on Xinjiang province that did not acknowledge Beijing’s brutal treatment of its Muslim Uyghur minority there. Canada’s Parliament adopted a motion in 2021 that declared China’s treatment of its Uyghurs a genocide.

Mr. Yuen has also spoken at and attended events of the Toronto branch of Chinese Freemasons, which has advocated for what it calls the “peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan,” a phrase rejected by the Taiwanese government, which contends that only the self-governing island can decide its own future. Ottawa’s position is that it opposes the use of coercion or force to unilaterally change the status quo of Taiwan.

The new Liberal candidate as of Wednesday was listed as honorary director of the Jiangsu Commerce Council of Canada (JCCC), a Toronto-headquartered organization founded in 2002 with clear ties to China’s United Front Work Department. The UFWD answers to the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s central committee and oversees Beijing’s influence, propaganda and intelligence operations inside and outside of China....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics...chosen-to-replace-paul-chiang-linked-to/