Canadian Federal Election

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Looks like Liberals have plateaued. Too soon?

We shall see. Really they don't have much more room to go up. They've sucked the NDP and Green dry and even nibbled at the BQ a bit. The only nut left to crack is the CPC support, which is almost impossible for them to get.

We're now in the grind stage of the campaign. All the candidates are locked in, so it's all about getting out to the people and getting the messages out for the next week or two. I doubt we'll see too much change one way or another; unless something unexpected happens.

The debates are the next big flex point of the campaign that might shake things up a little. And then we're into the final sprint to Election Day.

[dleung]

Yikes that last couple pages lol... lazy MAGA attempts to conflate the many with the few to advance partisan agendas

"Muslims, do you dIsAvOw 9/11???" "Do you dIsAvOw Oct 7???"

"Some Palestinians said 'from the river to the sea', so we have to let Israel carpet bomb them"

"Some college students said antisemitic things in response to genocide (islamaphobia in response to 9/11 was ok tho!) so protests are now deportable terrorist acts"

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

There is a chance the House steps in to curtail his tariff powers. It's starting already and will take time to get enough elected officials against him but I can see it happening as impacts start to hit home.

Maybe. But everyday this goes on, the risk of devastating effects increases.

Imagine you have a small business. Let's say a hardware store. You put in an order for $100k worth of inventory from China. Now you are facing >50% tariffs on it, to clear customs. If you don't have cash or room in your Line of Credit, this is dead inventory. Will the supplier ship it back and refund you? With CBP seize your stuff if you don't pay? And what happens to your prices after you pay that bill? What do you do if you pay the bill and then the tariffs get dropped?

If this goes on a month, you will see a ton of small businesses (who really depend on supplies from Asia) lining up at bankruptcy court.

[ssiguy]

The Tories have always had the problem of a stark difference in both policies and priorities between the progressive Tories in On/Qu/AC and the much more right wing support in the West and trying to balance the two keeping everyone happy. The Liberals don't suffer such a fate. We are seeing this play out in a number of different ways from defunding the CBC, gun control, environmental policy, and Energy East. In the last 10 years the Tories have managed to somewhat shrink that chasm but that was mostly due to Trudeau taking the Party very left leaving the more centrist vote to shift to the Tories.

The Tories have a built in handicap and the more the Liberals move to their traditional centrist policies, the worse it has been for PP.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by dleung

Yikes that last couple pages lol... lazy MAGA attempts to conflate the many with the few to advance partisan agendas

"Muslims, do you dIsAvOw 9/11???"

"Some Palestinians said 'from the river to the sea', so we have to let Israel carpet bomb them"

"Some college students said antisemitic things in response to genocide (islamaphobia in response to 9/11 was ok tho!) so protests are now deportable terrorist acts"

Precisely.

America has started to either deport people on student visas, or in some cases, arrest them without charges for speaking out against genocide against the Palestinians, and supposed antisemitism. Yet they are targeting just about every other minority group with ICE raids.

The Conservative base parrots MAGA so much it's scary. Forgive me for being old fashioned, but I believe in the charter of rights and freedoms, where we all are equal as Canadians. No group should face persecution, but when it happens, we try to make all Canadians feel welcome, not just one particular group.

Now getting back to this issue, we all know that Poilievre parrots Trump and Netanyahu, in painting the conflict black and white. However, I found Carney's response on Quebec TV very appropriate:

"Liberal leader and Canadian PM Mark Carney says that Palestinians have non-negotiable right over Gaza dismissing Trump's and Israel's plans of ethnic cleansing.

He views both Palestine and Ukraine from the lens of territorial integrity and human rights."

Video: https://x.com/nccm/status/1908167339821900226

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Looks like Liberals have plateaued. Too soon?

This phrase is used a lot but elections aren't like a boxing match. At the end of the day you don't need to grow every week you need to get the winning voters. Unless some current voters change their mind the Liberals win, very likely a majority and probably a large one.

The only way peaking to soon could matter is if NDP and Bloc voters decide the Liberals are winning anyway so they should send some more NDP and Bloc MPs to Ottawa to keep em honest.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by dleung

Yikes that last couple pages lol... lazy MAGA attempts to conflate the many with the few to advance partisan agendas

"Muslims, do you dIsAvOw 9/11???" "Do you dIsAvOw Oct 7???"

"Some Palestinians said 'from the river to the sea', so we have to let Israel carpet bomb them"

"Some college students said antisemitic things in response to genocide (islamaphobia in response to 9/11 was ok tho!) so protests are now deportable terrorist acts"

It’s funny when Jews started moving back to the area in the early 1900’s Palestinians decided to attack them, when they declared their own state, Palestinians attacked them, when they tried to have peace and offer citizenship, the Palestinians attacked them. For the last 70 years they’ve been attacking them, gaza was blockaded off because of missile strike after missile strike after missile strike.


But it’s all the Jews fault.

[savevp]

It is a very dleung move to wade in, call anyone to the political right a MAGA supporter, and then create multiple strawmen by invoking 9/11 unprompted, and somehow conflating opposition to university encampments with carpet bombing Gaza.

To the extent that Nouvellecosse brought the issue of anti-semitism within the pro-Palestinian movement up, it is remarkably disingenuous to claim that the explicitly genocidal 'River to the sea' chant is not a feature of pretty much all pro-Palestinian activism.

There is a reason the two parties that could form government here, as well as the governments of nearly all western countries, won't countenance the pro-Palestinian/anti-Western/ implicitly pro-terrorist movement. The Liberals have returned to the centre and seemingly rejected that fringe, for whom the Israel-Palestine conflict is a viable proxy for attacking western value systems without explicitly rejecting them.

Also, this:

Some Palestinians said 'from the river to the sea', so we have to let Israel carpet bomb them"

must be one of the laziest bad-faith takes, for multiple reasons, posted here in some time.

[ssiguy]

I don't understand why people equate MAGA and Trump with PP and the Tories.

On a very basic level, Trump and PP have nothing in common. Regardless of what one may think of PP or his policies he is a person who respects the democratic process, our democratic institutions, rule of law, and human rights. He is also a rational man whom you could have an intelligent conversation with and he doesn't whip out new policies on a near daily schedule. On a policy level, they also have little in common. PP is strongly pro-free trade, and supports SSM & is pro-choice. He does not consider Russia an ally but rather the threat to world peace and democracy which it is. He is as nauseated about Trump's world conquest agenda of not only taking over Canada but also Greenland, Panama, and whatever country it will be tomorrow as the rest of the planet.

Trump's tariffs, annexation threat, and complete contempt for both his own people and the world at large has cost PP a ton of support and the Liberals try to paint him as a MAGA guy. If Trump hadn't been elected we would still be looking at a Tory majority. Trump and MAGA policies has been a disaster for PP so why people think PP somehow sees him as a mini-Trump is completely beyond me. The Liberals view Trump as a nutcase but simultaneously as a gift from the God's while for the Tories he is the devil incarnate.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hecate

But it’s all the Jews fault.

Nobody is saying that, except you.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I don't understand why people equate MAGA and Trump with PP and the Tories.

On a very basic level, Trump and PP have nothing in common. Regardless of what one may think of PP or his policies he is a person who respects the democratic process, our democratic institutions, rule of law, and human rights. He is also a rational man whom you could have an intelligent conversation with and he doesn't whip out new policies on a near daily schedule. On a policy level, they also have little in common. PP is strongly pro-free trade, and supports SSM & is pro-choice. He does not consider Russia an ally but rather the threat to world peace and democracy which it is.

Trump's tariffs, annexation threat, and complete contempt for both his own people and the world at large has cost PP a ton of support and the Liberals try to paint him as a MAGA guy. If Trump hadn't been elected we would still be looking at a Tory majority. Trump and MAGA policies has been a disaster for PP so why people think PP somehow sees him as a mini-Trump is completely beyond me.

Because they are lazy, ill informed, and/or take a page from Trump himself to push a false narrative.

[whatnext]

Seriously, so many excuses. Generation Airhead.

Why young voters might not vote this federal election
Youth votes could swing this election, but data shows they don't tend to vote as much as older demographics
Natalia Goodwin · CBC News · Posted: Apr 07, 2025

Young voters could swing the results in Canada's upcoming election if they go to the polls, but that's something the demographic doesn't traditionally do as much as their older counterparts.

Data from Elections Canada shows that during the 2021 general election, 46.7 per cent of electors aged 18 to 24 cast a ballot. That's lower than any other age group.

Those numbers have been declining in the last few elections. Turnout among that demographic was about seven points lower in 2021 compared to 2019, and more than 10 points lower than 2015.

At Ottawa's Carleton University, students who identified as not fully engaged in this election said it's because of awareness and education.

What's driving the youth vote in Canada's upcoming federal election?
How to engage young voters in the upcoming federal election
"I'm just not that interested in politics in general, there's a lot going on and there's so many different sides of it and I just don't wanna be wrapped up," said Catherine O'Hall, who recently became eligible to vote.

Her friend Jade John said time restrictions have kept her from getting more information.

"It's not something that you just see in front of you, so you have to go searching for it, and I don't have time to go search," she said

Georgia Westwoods could have voted in the recent Ontario provincial election, but she didn't.

"I had no idea, I'd never heard about it, hadn't seen anything about it," she said, adding that her age group feels disconnected from politics.

"I don't really know a lot. I feel like a lot of people don't, especially my age. I feel like a lot of candidates don't really, like, look toward us, I guess. I feel like it's kind of hard to know where we stand."....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-federal-election-young-voters-1.7502406

[FrankieFlowerpot]

LPC: 46% (+13)
CPC: 36% (+2)
NDP: 7% (-11)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 2% (-)
PPC: 1% (-4)

Angus Reid / April 7, 2025 / n=2028 / Online

That’s up from last weeks LPC +8

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Seriously, so many excuses. Generation Airhead.

Why young voters might not vote this federal election
Youth votes could swing this election, but data shows they don't tend to vote as much as older demographics
Natalia Goodwin · CBC News · Posted: Apr 07, 2025

Young voters could swing the results in Canada's upcoming election if they go to the polls, but that's something the demographic doesn't traditionally do as much as their older counterparts.

Data from Elections Canada shows that during the 2021 general election, 46.7 per cent of electors aged 18 to 24 cast a ballot. That's lower than any other age group.

Those numbers have been declining in the last few elections. Turnout among that demographic was about seven points lower in 2021 compared to 2019, and more than 10 points lower than 2015.

At Ottawa's Carleton University, students who identified as not fully engaged in this election said it's because of awareness and education.

What's driving the youth vote in Canada's upcoming federal election?
How to engage young voters in the upcoming federal election
"I'm just not that interested in politics in general, there's a lot going on and there's so many different sides of it and I just don't wanna be wrapped up," said Catherine O'Hall, who recently became eligible to vote.

Her friend Jade John said time restrictions have kept her from getting more information.

"It's not something that you just see in front of you, so you have to go searching for it, and I don't have time to go search," she said

Georgia Westwoods could have voted in the recent Ontario provincial election, but she didn't.

"I had no idea, I'd never heard about it, hadn't seen anything about it," she said, adding that her age group feels disconnected from politics.

"I don't really know a lot. I feel like a lot of people don't, especially my age. I feel like a lot of candidates don't really, like, look toward us, I guess. I feel like it's kind of hard to know where we stand."....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-federal-election-young-voters-1.7502406

It’s true, young people today are disconnected from politics. That isn’t their fault, politicians do nothing to speak to them, Justin kinda did at first with the legalizing pot thing, Jagmeet a little bit too, but in general your average member of parliament does fuck all to connect with younger voters. They go to seniors homes where advanced polls are set up so the seniors don’t have to leave and buy them all doughnuts and coffee, but they don’t do the same for high schools. Or student housing blocks to get these kids somewhat engaged in the process. To get them excited about voting.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Finally, someone mentioned the… elephant in the room??

For this magic formula to work, turnout for under 50 men would have to increase substantially, while older men and women voters do not rise.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Looks like Liberals have plateaued. Too soon?

It's funny that if you look at the charts for the 2019 and 2021 elections (plus Ontarios provincial election in Feb) you will see an entire campaign of plateaus. Nobody really moves anywhere outside of the typical campaign noise.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I don't understand why people equate MAGA and Trump with PP and the Tories.

On a very basic level, Trump and PP have nothing in common. Regardless of what one may think of PP or his policies he is a person who respects the democratic process, our democratic institutions, rule of law, and human rights. He is also a rational man whom you could have an intelligent conversation with and he doesn't whip out new policies on a near daily schedule. On a policy level, they also have little in common. PP is strongly pro-free trade, and supports SSM & is pro-choice. He does not consider Russia an ally but rather the threat to world peace and democracy which it is. He is as nauseated about Trump's world conquest agenda of not only taking over Canada but also Greenland, Panama, and whatever country it will be tomorrow as the rest of the planet.

Trump's tariffs, annexation threat, and complete contempt for both his own people and the world at large has cost PP a ton of support and the Liberals try to paint him as a MAGA guy. If Trump hadn't been elected we would still be looking at a Tory majority. Trump and MAGA policies has been a disaster for PP so why people think PP somehow sees him as a mini-Trump is completely beyond me. The Liberals view Trump as a nutcase but simultaneously as a gift from the God's while for the Tories he is the devil incarnate.

PP is more of a JD Vance or Ben Shapiro than a Trump. Granted PP does borrow a few of Trumps tactics (fake news, yelling at media, anti woke, lying all the time, arrogance, etc). But no, PP is not Trump. The orange man is truly in a league all of his own haha.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

I was out in the Fraser Valley today and I saw signs for a party I’d almost forgotten about - the PPC. Saw two huge signs in Mission, including one on someone’s lawn and another along Highway 7. Also saw someone with a PPC flag on their car.

Anyone else see anything from that party lately? I can’t say I’ve heard from Maxime Bernier lately.

The PPC did well here, one of the best results I think with 13.1% of the votes in 2021.

This time I don't know who the candidate is and I have yet to see a PPC sign anywhere. Almost all of the properties that had PPC signs last time have CPC signs now. Very few properties here have lawn (snowbank here) election signs. It's just not a thing here. But signs are allowed anywhere on public property and utility poles.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

We shall see. Really they don't have much more room to go up. They've sucked the NDP and Green dry and even nibbled at the BQ a bit. The only nut left to crack is the CPC support, which is almost impossible for them to get.

We're now in the grind stage of the campaign. All the candidates are locked in, so it's all about getting out to the people and getting the messages out for the next week or two. I doubt we'll see too much change one way or another; unless something unexpected happens.

The debates are the next big flex point of the campaign that might shake things up a little. And then we're into the final sprint to Election Day.

Agree.

The battle lines have pretty much formed.

The Conservatives are pretty much down to their base right now. Thet aren't going to fall much further unless PP storms a nursing home with a sub machine gun.

The non Conservative vote has coalesced around Carney, The NDP has imploded in a frantic rush to prevent PP from becoming PM. Surprisingly even the BQ is bleeding to the Liberals because of the Trumpian threat.

The Conservative vote will not rise. There is some potential for downward drift for the Liberals, but, all the Liberals have to do is concentrate on Trump as the Great Satan and the Anti-Christ, and the progressive coalition should hold fast.

It will be a Liberal majority government.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by travis3000

PP is more of a JD Vance or Ben Shapiro than a Trump. Granted PP does borrow a few of Trumps tactics (fake news, yelling at media, anti woke, lying all the time, arrogance, etc). But no, PP is not Trump. The orange man is truly in a league all of his own haha.

I’ll give you anti-woke, and arrogance, but the fake news, yelling at media, and especially lying all the time are completely made up.

You want to an example of compulsive lying, go listen to Mark Carney.