Canadian Federal Election

[cranes]

https://www.therecord.com/opinion/column...ea8a3dc-ce42-5a7b-a4cd-7f07717d756a.html
Opinion | Kitchener Centre looks like a safe seat for Green MP Mike Morrice. But is it?
With a Green Party MP, Kitchener Centre isn’t like other ridings. But will the Liberal surge in public opinion threaten Mike Morrice’s chances at re-election, Luisa D’Amato asks.
April 4, 2025

Walk through many residential neighbourhoods in Kitchener Centre riding, and you’ll see a sea of green.
Not green grass. Green lawn signs for Mike Morrice, the Green Party incumbent.
A thousand signs, already pre-approved by voters, went up the same day the federal election was called.
It’s a powerful indication of Morrice’s well-organized campaign and distinctive political style, which has earned him deep loyalty among progressive voters here.
...
“There’s nothing normal about Kitchener Centre,” says Sean Simpson, senior vice-president at Ipsos Canada and a riding resident.
The riding has Morrice as Green MP in Ottawa, and Aislinn Clancy as Green MPP in the provincial legislature, which makes it “extremely atypical,” he said.
But that said, Kitchener Centre is “not a safe seat” for Morrice, said Simpson.
“It stands to reason the Liberals are going to do better this time around.”...

Election signs for Green Party incumbent Mike Morrice dot front lawns in the Kitchener Centre riding Thursday. Brent Davis Waterloo Region Record


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kitchener_Centre_(provincial_electoral_district)#Election_results
Winning party in each polling division of Kitchener Centre at the 2025 Ontario general election

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Oil is in the $50s. As per chatter, this would give Alberta a $13B provincial deficit apparently.

https://x.com/GK_Fellows/status/1909046357920555185?t=0gJQkZFCvOfFfzR752YRTg&s=19

Smith might want to start lobbying against the destruction of the global economy.

Smith is corrupt, predictable, and a lost cause. She has never had any interest in anything besides the oil and gas lobby. If oil and gas prices fall, she will blame Ottawa for it. At this point, it seems Smith is at best, a collaborator, and at worst, a traitor who is obsessed with becoming the Governor of the US state of Alberta.

It will be up to the people of Alberta to boot her out of office.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by zoomer

I don't watch CTV National news, but in flipping channels tonight I caught a bit where the headline was a narrowing gap in the polls identified by Nanos whom they are using for their polling. They had an interview with Nic Nanos who explained his thinking on the poll numbers (43% to 37% lead for the Liberals).

Then flipped to Global BC news where they talked about a widening Liberal poll lead (IPSOS) now in double digits - 46 to 34%. So your view of momentum is very much influenced by what newscast your watching as they don't mention other polling firm results.

I checked out CTV news's website and as of an hour ago their top three news stories are:

- Liberals’ lead over Conservatives narrows to six points, as NDP reaches a ‘numeric low’

- Will Mark Carney’s early missteps cost him crucial votes?

- Former deputy police chief replaces Chiang as Liberal candidate in Toronto riding

So what gives? Is CTV biased or Conservative leaning or is this just a coincidence of using their polling numbers with negative news stories for the Liberals?

It’s always felt that CTV leans a little to the right, especially compared to the CBC.

[manny_santos]

I was out in the Fraser Valley today and I saw signs for a party I’d almost forgotten about - the PPC. Saw two huge signs in Mission, including one on someone’s lawn and another along Highway 7. Also saw someone with a PPC flag on their car.

Anyone else see anything from that party lately? I can’t say I’ve heard from Maxime Bernier lately.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

I was out in the Fraser Valley today and I saw signs for a party I’d almost forgotten about - the PPC. Saw two huge signs in Mission, including one on someone’s lawn and another along Highway 7.

Anyone else see anything from that party lately?

Not very much, but then again they are more or less a fringe party, polling at roughly 2%. I had seen an interesting video recently, from a former PPC member, who still holds many of the PPC views (anti-vaxx, immigration, etc). He was high up in the party, until a year or so into COVID where he departed.

He was very critical of Bernier, saying that Bernier was "all in it for himself," and that Bernier didn't necessary believe a lot of the PPC positions, and just gravitated to the far right to achieve fame and power. The YouTuber stated that Bernier fired the candidate in the riding where the PPC achieved their best result in 2021 (22.5% in Portage-Lisgar in Southern Manitoba), so he could run in the by-election in 2023 himself as the candidate, hoping to win a seat in Parliament, which he lost handedly to the CPC candidate. Apparently, that rubbed many in the party the wrong way, and several prominent people departed the PPC.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by zoomer

I don't watch CTV National news, but in flipping channels tonight I caught a bit where the headline was a narrowing gap in the polls identified by Nanos whom they are using for their polling. They had an interview with Nic Nanos who explained his thinking on the poll numbers (43% to 37% lead for the Liberals).

Then flipped to Global BC news where they talked about a widening Liberal poll lead (IPSOS) now in double digits - 46 to 34%. So your view of momentum is very much influenced by what newscast your watching as they don't mention other polling firm results.

I checked out CTV news's website and as of an hour ago their top three news stories are:

- Liberals’ lead over Conservatives narrows to six points, as NDP reaches a ‘numeric low’

- Will Mark Carney’s early missteps cost him crucial votes?

- Former deputy police chief replaces Chiang as Liberal candidate in Toronto riding

So what gives? Is CTV biased or Conservative leaning or is this just a coincidence of using their polling numbers with negative news stories for the Liberals?

The National Post website is comparable, if not further right...

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

The National Post website is comparable, if not further right...

I've never found CTV that bad. I mean they may be more Conservative than CBC, but that is about it. The National Post is definitely partisan.

[kool maudit]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

I was out in the Fraser Valley today and I saw signs for a party I’d almost forgotten about - the PPC. Saw two huge signs in Mission, including one on someone’s lawn and another along Highway 7. Also saw someone with a PPC flag on their car.

Anyone else see anything from that party lately? I can’t say I’ve heard from Maxime Bernier lately.

Dead men walking. Nothing there.

Even on the larger scale, the NDP is withering to give us a very American kind of two-party election.

[Taeolas]

I lost interest/faith in CTV/ATV about 20-some years ago, when they did what to me came across as a very biased anti-Liberal interview. I can't recall the details, but I think someone else mentioned it a while back (something like "Steve Murphy through the Liberal candidate under the bus" or so), and I basically tuned them out ever since.

They aren't anywhere near as biased as National Post, but they've always felt a bit more Centre-Right than many might expect.

Global I haven't really paid attention to their coverage, so they sort've fall pure Centre for me, by default. Maybe slightly left.

CBC is more Centre-left, but they do try to be neutral. But considering the Conservatives are constantly gunning for them, going left is more of a self defense measure. I suspect that if the CPC could come up with a plan for the CBC beyond "Shut it down!", they'd have more implicit support from them in general.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

CBC is more Centre-left, but they do try to be neutral. But considering the Conservatives are constantly gunning for them, going left is more of a self defense measure. I suspect that if the CPC could come up with a plan for the CBC beyond "Shut it down!", they'd have more implicit support from them in general.

The fact that CBC has remained as neutral as possible in spite of the circumstances (one party will increase spending on the network, while one party wants to axe all funding towards the network) is somewhat impressive.

If things get worse in America, with Trump threatening news outlets and journalists, one wonders how many Americans will turn north to hear impartial news. CBC has always had a good reputation internationally, similar to the BBC in the UK.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

I was out in the Fraser Valley today and I saw signs for a party I’d almost forgotten about - the PPC. Saw two huge signs in Mission, including one on someone’s lawn and another along Highway 7. Also saw someone with a PPC flag on their car.

Anyone else see anything from that party lately? I can’t say I’ve heard from Maxime Bernier lately.

I haven't seen a single sign in Woodstock, and their candidate got 11% in 2021. Kind of a shame because their support will probably bleed back to the Conservatives who only won the riding by 6 points in the 2023 by election, although the PPC was only a shade over 3% in that one.

For fringe parties, I'm interested in seeing how the Christian Heritage does here this time. They used to be good for 2.5 to almost 4 points and they dropped to under 1 in 2021 (6th place) when the PPC had their high. Then in the by election, the CHP got over 4%, for 4th place and PPC had a bit over 3%. I'm seeing lots of CHP signs around the riding, and as I said, no PPC and barely any Green.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Acajack begs to differ.

He's quite despairing on Twitter. I suspect a bit of surprise that most Quebecois don't automatically share his view of language and culture issues above absolutely everything else.

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Trump is insisting on zeroing out trade balances. As long as he believes that, there's no way to make a deal on tariffs.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...s-says-deals-hinge-on-even-trade-balance

He's going to drive the global economy off a cliff. And nobody is going to stop him because they're all sycophants unlike his first term. He's in a reinforcing negative feedback loop of the worst kind. He does dumb shit. Sycophants and Fox News applaud it. He buys their spin. Stubbornly sticks to his moronic opinions. It all gets worse.

He genuinely doesn't understand global trade.

I mean, presumably the tariffs will have some impact on reducing the amount of goods coming into the US and therefore help balance imports and exports, but when those imports are dropping because some US manufacturer has gone under, that will also result in a drop in exports, or, increased US prices (albeit countered by a depressed US dollar) will lead to a drop in exports and make the situation worse.

When you starting accounting in things like counter-tariffs and market uncertainty and so on, it's hard to see a scenario where this could possibly work for Trump.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

Originally Posted by zoomer

I don't watch CTV National news, but in flipping channels tonight I caught a bit where the headline was a narrowing gap in the polls identified by Nanos whom they are using for their polling. They had an interview with Nic Nanos who explained his thinking on the poll numbers (43% to 37% lead for the Liberals).

Then flipped to Global BC news where they talked about a widening Liberal poll lead (IPSOS) now in double digits - 46 to 34%. So your view of momentum is very much influenced by what newscast your watching as they don't mention other polling firm results.

I checked out CTV news's website and as of an hour ago their top three news stories are:

- Liberals’ lead over Conservatives narrows to six points, as NDP reaches a ‘numeric low’

- Will Mark Carney’s early missteps cost him crucial votes?

- Former deputy police chief replaces Chiang as Liberal candidate in Toronto riding

So what gives? Is CTV biased or Conservative leaning or is this just a coincidence of using their polling numbers with negative news stories for the Liberals?

This is why it's important not to over-react to polls from the same organization changing by a couple of points in a couple of days.


Overall trackers are the best way of looking at things.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I lost interest/faith in CTV/ATV about 20-some years ago, when they did what to me came across as a very biased anti-Liberal interview. I can't recall the details, but I think someone else mentioned it a while back (something like "Steve Murphy through the Liberal candidate under the bus" or so), and I basically tuned them out ever since.

They aren't anywhere near as biased as National Post, but they've always felt a bit more Centre-Right than many might expect.

Global I haven't really paid attention to their coverage, so they sort've fall pure Centre for me, by default. Maybe slightly left.

CBC is more Centre-left, but they do try to be neutral. But considering the Conservatives are constantly gunning for them, going left is more of a self defense measure. I suspect that if the CPC could come up with a plan for the CBC beyond "Shut it down!", they'd have more implicit support from them in general.

Steve Wright exposed Stephan Dion as the non English speaker he is. ATV restarted his interview at least three times but Dion did not understand the simple English questions Steve was asking. Before the accusations of bias creep in, Wright has been seriously courted by both the Provincial and Federal Liberal parties. He has said no to both as well as Provincial Conservatives.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The fact that CBC has remained as neutral as possible in spite of the circumstances (one party will increase spending on the network, while one party wants to axe all funding towards the network) is somewhat impressive.

If things get worse in America, with Trump threatening news outlets and journalists, one wonders how many Americans will turn north to hear impartial news. CBC has always had a good reputation internationally, similar to the BBC in the UK.

CBC is trying to behave this election after the suit brought forward by Rosie Barton and her bosses in the last election. They literally can not afford a Conservative majority Government.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Steve Wright exposed Stephan Dion as the non English speaker he is. ATV restarted his interview at least three times but Dion did not understand the simple English questions Steve was asking. Before the accusations of bias creep in, Wright has been seriously courted by both the Provincial and Federal Liberal parties. He has said no to both as well as Provincial Conservatives.

That sounds familiar, though I'm pretty sure it was Steve Murphy; he was the face of ATV News in the early 2000's and he did most of the big political interviews.

I was a lot younger and more politically naive back then, but when I heard how it was spun, it basically soured me on ATV news in general when I'd previously been a pretty loyal watcher. It was probably one of the factors that turned me off TV news in general; I mostly get my news online now, from my RSS feeds and seeing what spurs discussions on some of the boards I'm on (including here at SSP)

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

That sounds familiar, though I'm pretty sure it was Steve Murphy; he was the face of ATV News in the early 2000's and he did most of the big political interviews.

I was a lot younger and more politically naive back then, but when I heard how it was spun, it basically soured me on ATV news in general when I'd previously been a pretty loyal watcher. It was probably one of the factors that turned me off TV news in general; I mostly get my news online now, from my RSS feeds and seeing what spurs discussions on some of the boards I'm on (including here at SSP)

It was Murphy.

The issue was that they aired the whole interview, including the restarts, thus exposing the fact that Kyoto Dion essentially could not understand simple English questions. It was the death knell of his campaign. Murphy has been known as the Kingslayer ever since.

Should they have edited the interview to make Dion look better? A judgement call I guess.

CBC would have...................

[Taeolas]

Yup, as Celine says "It's all coming back to me now."

As far as restarts go, IIRC, my feelings at the time (and my feelings now regardless of who is being interviewed) are that if both sides agree to a restart, then it is a restart; the parts before the request are now basically off the record. If the Interviewer says restarts aren't possible or aren't going to happen, then so be it. (And Dion and his handlers should have realized that and/or clarified it one way or another if there was a language issue). It wasn't a live, nor nearly live interview, so there was certainly room to pause and clarify things if needed.

Clearly there was a miscommunication about the interview somewhere in that process back then. And for me, as I said, it soured me on ATV in general ever since. (Very likely if they had done a similar thing with a CPC candidate, I'd still be soured on them, since it just doesn't come across as 'fair' to me to agree to one thing then not do it in the end; which was how it was spun/came across).

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

That sounds familiar, though I'm pretty sure it was Steve Murphy; he was the face of ATV News in the early 2000's and he did most of the big political interviews.

I was a lot younger and more politically naive back then, but when I heard how it was spun, it basically soured me on ATV news in general when I'd previously been a pretty loyal watcher. It was probably one of the factors that turned me off TV news in general; I mostly get my news online now, from my RSS feeds and seeing what spurs discussions on some of the boards I'm on (including here at SSP)

Yes you are right. Mike Duffy rebroadcast it nationally which was the death blow to Dion and was rewarded with a senate seat he later lost to scandal.

AT the time CTV used to be pro Conservative as much as CBC was on the left. I think Bell Media now has so much money dependent on other government regulation that they can't afford to be anti Liberal and are pretty straight at this point. Maybe slightly pro-corporate but nothing like even left wing US networks.